How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Long time since we left the old country. But that incidence made our blood boil. Hear lots of bad things about Mr Rutte hear he is doing something right. Saw all the funeral parlor limousines

on the way to a town called Hilversum. 42 F16's a small price to pay. 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by chuckdyke

[sburke]

The resilience of Russia's stock market and its economy is a complete mirage masking deeper pain, Yale researchers say (yahoo.com)

Best line

Quote

"The Russian stock market performance is very misleading, It is a Roach Motel of assets," Sonnenfeld told Insider. "No one will invest in Russia for a long time. Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic nations will be far better investment opportunities in the region."

 

[Aragorn2002]

28 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Long time since we left the old country. But that incidence made our blood boil. Hear lots of bad things about Mr Rutte hear he is doing something right. Saw all the funeral parlor limousines

on the way to a town called Hilversum. 42 F16's a small price to pay. 

 

 

Rutte has done many things right actually and is one of the best leaders the Netherlands ever had. It's just the way this stupid little country is rewarding those that dare to lead in a more and more uncotrolable world. 

[Aragorn2002]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

Next stop Moscow!

Witte muizen! 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Rutte has done many things right actually and is one of the best leaders the Netherlands ever had. It's just the way this stupid little country is rewarding those that dare to lead in a more and more uncotrolable world. 

How many parties now in the house of representatives? (2de Kamer). 

[Fenris]

Some more interesting than usual comments on ISW in relation to fractures within Wagner and rear area strikes degrading RU morale and capabilities.  Worth perusing until the end where there's claimed to be a shortage of tires and parts for the RU trucks and details of various things supplied secretly by China.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

've had a feeling that I've been seeing more steel helmets in videos lately.  We saw a lot of them earlier in the war when unanticipated losses outstripped the available supply of modern equipment (even firearms).  This was partially alleviated by importing stuff from Iran and likely other places.  Russian manufacturing got really cranked up, though at first all they were doing was "modernizing" the steel helmets.  Then, it appears, some combination of production increases and imports has apparently managed to keep pace with losses.

This is most probably former separatist rocket artillery unit. They likely get lower-shelf personal equipment from the start of this war anyway. Narrator seem to complain at the start about those steel helmets; it is likely they even record the video specifically to have some donations for new stuff (Russian net was always full of such pleas, just like Ukrainian one). Difficult to say if it is some new broader trend.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Some more interesting than usual comments on ISW in relation to fractures within Wagner and rear area strikes degrading RU morale and capabilities.  Worth perusing until the end where there's claimed to be a shortage of tires and parts for the RU trucks and details of various things supplied secretly by China.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

Yup, quite a good report.  The discussion of morale and the increasing compounding impact of Ukrainian actions is (mostly) spot on summarized by an unusually BOLDED bit:

Morale issues pertaining to the Russian defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are only relevant if Ukrainian forces can degrade Russian morale to the breaking point and take advantage of it; these morale issues will not matter if Russian forces do not break under this pressure. There is no way to predict if, when, or where a Russian unit might break under sustained pressure, but Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.

This has been the case since the war started.  ISW is not quite correct when it says that unless there is a massive collapse that the low morale does "not matter".  It does and it already has.

At the tactical level a demoralized unit is less likely to fight hard or effectively, so I'd say that so far Russia's generally piss poor morale has been a very big benefit to Ukraine at times and at specific tactical locations. Large groups running away, small units surrendering (sometimes in platoon size), and units generating videos that reinforce the belief that they are being mistreated are all evident from both Ukrainian and Russian sources.

At the operational level we saw poor morale playing a role in the collapse of the Kharkiv front and the near collapse of the northern front in the early days of the war. 

At the strategic level, The low morale is also likely responsible for limiting true volunteering of prospective and veteran soldiers going to (or back to) the front.  It is also seeping into the civilian population that is critical to keeping this war going.

All that said, ISW is totally correct that this has yet to translate into a strategic battlefield collapse.  Though it is easy to see how this particular counter offensive is pushing things closer to the breaking point than ever before.

Steve

[holoween]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

 The follow on to that is that is that infantry weapons should use the smallest, lightest round possible.

Noone disputes that but barely anyone can agree what that "lightest round possible" actually is.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 hours ago, Fenris said:

RUAF launched their attack using kamikadze MT-LB

I assume "kamikadze" means remotely controlled. Anyone know how do Russians implement remote control on those vehicles - is there some kind of "Borgwardization" kit or process, or do they stick to the more budget method of tying a brick to the gas pedal?

[Carolus]

13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I assume "kamikadze" means remotely controlled. Anyone know how do Russians implement remote control on those vehicles - is there some kind of "Borgwardization" kit or process, or do they stick to the more budget method of tying a brick to the gas pedal?

Hey, bricks are expensive. You tie a mobik to the gas pedal.

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I assume "kamikadze" means remotely controlled. Anyone know how do Russians implement remote control on those vehicles - is there some kind of "Borgwardization" kit or process, or do they stick to the more budget method of tying a brick to the gas pedal?

The ones we've seen in the past are piloted by a soldier until inline with the target, then it is brick on gas peddle with a quick bailout.  There was drone footage of this taking place as well as reports from Ukrainian sources.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Anyone know what happened to the idea of providing Australia's F-18s that was mentioned as a possibility a while back?

[akd]

Better angle on that failed Russian attack.  Seems to be mostly the work of mines (and friendly fire, lol), followed by a light topping of DPICM:

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Better angle on that failed Russian attack.  Seems to be mostly the work of mines (and friendly fire, lol), followed by a light topping of DPICM:

 

such precision!  Epic disaster.  Advancing in strength in the morning sun, RU commander probably watching via drone thinking his plan is gonna win him a medal and a promotion.  Then within seconds it's a bunch of scrap metal and dead guys.  Survivors running away, hoping to get out before the cluster rounds hit them.  Once again, RU spending it's mobile reserves wisely by trying to pointlessly take back terrain that really doesn't matter.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

Better angle on that failed Russian attack.  Seems to be mostly the work of mines (and friendly fire, lol), followed by a light topping of DPICM:

 

Holy crap... that looks like the tank on the left put a round straight through the back of the tank on the right.  That's some gunnery for you!

We were just discussing spacing.  This is a perfect example of bad spacing.  All the vehicles are right on top of each other, making for an easier target and making any contingency responses more difficult.  Three vehicles lost to mines within seconds is the obvious result there.

The irony is that it is quite possible these were Russian laid AT mines.

Steve

[akd]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap... that looks like the tank on the left put a round straight through the back of the tank on the right.  That's some gunnery for you!

 

HE right next to it, I think.

[Teufel]

2 hours ago, holoween said:

Noone disputes that but barely anyone can agree what that "lightest round possible" actually is.

 

Not going to suggest vote, and this is really off topic and as many opinions as there are shooters out there. If you ever had opportunity to fire AR-10 chambered in .308/7.55 NATO (don’t nobody tell me there is difference), and had the privilege to follow up by AR-15 chambered in .223/5.56 NATO. That’s my opinion right there, recoil is much better on the AR-15, follow up faster due to low recoil, and for discussion important much lighter round. Given combat situations and distances not being longer than 150-300 yards. Even 100 yards is probably far in most cases the .223 will have flat trajectory and pack enough punch to trash Russian so called body armor.

Even better option that is not yet available in volume would be the 6.8mm NGSW round. That’s going to be something else if and when used by military forces. Composite round, or if you so wish, “plastic”. Case is brass on early prototypes but can see entire round being composite in future. Now we are talking light weight!

Edit: forgot to add that the 6.8mm was actually developed in response to the “Ratnik 3” program Russians had. Guess what, it was just BS propaganda that got owned by General Dynamics and Beretta. Almost like talking smack and following up by swinging at professional boxer, without knowing that dude actually knows how to fight.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Teufel

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

HE right next to it, I think.

There's a puff at the back of the tank, the front of the tank, and then a detonation a dozen meters or so ahead of the tank.  The explosion certainly indicates it didn't go through the tank first, but then what are the other two puffs?  Passed the round UNDER the tank??

Steve

[kimbosbread]

8 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Even better option that is not yet available in volume would be the 6.8mm NGSW round. That’s going to be something else if and when used by military forces. Composite round, or if you so wish, “plastic”. Case is brass on early prototypes but can see entire round being composite in future. Now we are talking light weight!

6.8mm NGSW is going to burn through barrels very fast- like a thousand rounds or so, unless SIG made some serious advances in barrel metallurgy. An AR-15 in 5.56x45mm can have the barrel last many tens of thousands of rounds.

It is instructive shooting an AR-15 vs an AK-47. The former has next to no recoil, even in a lightweight configuration (ie a 6lb setup, vs the 12lb setup with lasers, various sights, etc).

What’s the point of a rifle that can go through armor at 500m that weighs 2x as much when ammo is considered when you can just have some 250g suicide drones with rod warheads that will take a guys leg or hand off in the near future?

[akd]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's a puff at the back of the tank, the front of the tank, and then a detonation a dozen meters or so ahead of the tank.  The explosion certainly indicates it didn't go through the tank first, but then what are the other two puffs?  Passed the round UNDER the tank??

Steve

Explosion is first, with fragments hitting the tank and around the tank, followed by more dust / smoke kicking up on and around the tank.  Actual point of detonation is forward and left of the tank by a bit.

Edited August 21, 2023 by akd

[Astrophel]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, quite a good report.  The discussion of morale and the increasing compounding impact of Ukrainian actions is (mostly) spot on summarized by an unusually BOLDED bit:

Morale issues pertaining to the Russian defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are only relevant if Ukrainian forces can degrade Russian morale to the breaking point and take advantage of it; these morale issues will not matter if Russian forces do not break under this pressure. There is no way to predict if, when, or where a Russian unit might break under sustained pressure, but Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.

This has been the case since the war started.  ISW is not quite correct when it says that unless there is a massive collapse that the low morale does "not matter".  It does and it already has.

At the tactical level a demoralized unit is less likely to fight hard or effectively, so I'd say that so far Russia's generally piss poor morale has been a very big benefit to Ukraine at times and at specific tactical locations. Large groups running away, small units surrendering (sometimes in platoon size), and units generating videos that reinforce the belief that they are being mistreated are all evident from both Ukrainian and Russian sources.

At the operational level we saw poor morale playing a role in the collapse of the Kharkiv front and the near collapse of the northern front in the early days of the war. 

At the strategic level, The low morale is also likely responsible for limiting true volunteering of prospective and veteran soldiers going to (or back to) the front.  It is also seeping into the civilian population that is critical to keeping this war going.

All that said, ISW is totally correct that this has yet to translate into a strategic battlefield collapse.  Though it is easy to see how this particular counter offensive is pushing things closer to the breaking point than ever before.

Steve

The morale issue is key, and a continuing puzzle.  Were the russians a western army they would have collapsed last year.  They are badly led, badly equipped, and fighting for an immoral and unethical cause.  It cannot even be argued that they are fighting to defend the motherland since the motherland has not been attacked in the slightest until recent weeks.  They are now outgunned.  They are not welcomed in the occupied territories as liberators, rather despised.  They are often asked to endorse or perform atrocities that must turn the stomach of any human.

What keeps them going?  Day after day they continue to attack and take many casualties.  The medical care is minimal, it seems.  And for what?  They lose ground slowly but surely and every day that passes the corrupt nature of their cause becomes more evident.  Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.

The power of culture and group think has never been more revoltingly on display.  This war needs to be won on a psychological level.  Morale is key.  The russians need to change their minds about this war. 

 

[holoween]

50 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Not going to suggest vote, and this is really off topic and as many opinions as there are shooters out there. If you ever had opportunity to fire AR-10 chambered in .308/7.55 NATO (don’t nobody tell me there is difference), and had the privilege to follow up by AR-15 chambered in .223. That’s my opinion right there, recoil is so much better on the AR-15, follow up much easier, and much lighter round. Given combat situations and distances not being longer than 150-300 yards. Even 100 yards is probably far in most cases the .223 will have flat trajectory and pack enough punch to trash Russian so called body armor.

Even better option that is not yet available in volume would be the 6.8mm NGSW round. That’s going to be something else if and when used by military forces. Composite round, or if you so wish, “plastic”. Case is brass on early prototypes but can see entire round being composite in future. Now we are talking light weight!

Edit: forgot to add that the 6.8mm was actually developed in response to the “Ratnik 3” program Russians had. Guess what, it was just BS propaganda that got owned by the counterpart. Almost like talking smack and following up by swinging at professional boxer, without knowing that dude actually knows how to fight.

See ive been thinking smaller than 5.56 not larger but since its entirely OT wed need a separate thred for it.

Edited August 21, 2023 by holoween

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The morale issue is key, and a continuing puzzle.  Were the russians a western army they would have collapsed last year.  They are badly led, badly equipped, and fighting for an immoral and unethical cause.  It cannot even be argued that they are fighting to defend the motherland since the motherland has not been attacked in the slightest until recent weeks.  They are now outgunned.  They are not welcomed in the occupied territories as liberators, rather despised.  They are often asked to endorse or perform atrocities that must turn the stomach of any human.

What keeps them going?  Day after day they continue to attack and take many casualties.  The medical care is minimal, it seems.  And for what?  They lose ground slowly but surely and every day that passes the corrupt nature of their cause becomes more evident.  Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.

The power of culture and group think has never been more revoltingly on display.  This war needs to be won on a psychological level.  Morale is key.  The russians need to change their minds about this war. 

 

excellent post.  Clearly and succinctly pointing out what's driving us all so crazy -- why are these guys holding on?  what are their tipping points if not what they've already endured??  And will there ever be a cascading series of tipping points that actually leads to enough RU breakdown to allow UKR to make a strategically significant advance.

[Kraft]

 

16 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.

Dont forget suicide, because Ive seen a surprisingly high amount of that through drone feeds.

But, nothing systemic. The zombies will continue to do as told and die in the grinder.

I dont know what kind of sedatives Putin has been putting in the water for the past decades but its working.

Conscripted! Okay. Dead husband? New Lada!

Edited August 21, 2023 by Kraft