How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Is this whole thing with Wagner getting too much attention?:

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/08/03/conflict_in_ukraine_tests_natos_borders_970459.html

While the likelihood of significant incursions into NATO territory is very low given current scenarios, the hybrid nature of Russian actions in Georgia and in Ukraine in 2014 indicates that that is Moscow’s preferred modus operandi. The longer the Ukrainian conflict continues, the more likely it is that some breach of NATO borders will occur.

NATO must be ready to respond in a firm but measured manner. Russian President Vladimir Putin sees hesitancy in the West as weakness. The lack of a unified and strong NATO response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and associated hybrid warfare in the Donbas directly contributed to Putin’s calculations in deciding to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Misc. stuff:

1.  Here's something clever to defend Starlink (and other sat based services) against EW that theoretically should work, at least to some extent:

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_russia_hinders_starlink_and_how_ukrainians_can_deal_with_it_by_using_a_shovel-7487.html

The short of this is that in order to jam a Starlink dish the Russian EW has to bounce electronic disruption directly at the dish.  So what to do?  Dig out a pit, reinforce it with metal, then put the dish at the bottom.  This creates a kinda Faraday Cage which is open at the top.  Starlink looks directly up, so no problem there.  But the Russian EW energy waves are no longer able to hit the dish even if they are positioned high up on tall towers.

Pretty slick.

2.  More pretty video of Russian heavy artillery going boom:

3.  I would never condone civilian on civilian violence, but it is hard to see Russians abroad behaving as if everything is normal.  If they want things to be normal, then they should spend some more time at home changing the regime before thinking of going on vacation:

4.  Observations of why it is so difficult to knock out Russian air power:

 

5.  Mick Ryan takes a look at where the counter offensive stands compared to his analysis just as it started.  It's a good read:

6.  US Army fast tracking a purpose built tactical drone bomber.  Hopefully this will not be yet another high priced system for US soldiers that doesn't to much more than a Ukrainian low cost solution:

https://www.militarytimes.com/unmanned/uas/2023/07/31/us-army-developing-lasso-tank-killing-drone-for-infantry/

 

Steve

I do know they had the pit idea at least since Starlink started being provided.  I love those kind of grounded (deliberate!) solutions to a seemingly electronic /digital problem. 

[cesmonkey]

New podcast with Kofman:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/zooming-out-on-ukraines-offensive/
ZOOMING OUT ON UKRAINE’S OFFENSIVE
MICHAEL KOFMAN AND RYAN EVANS
AUGUST 3, 2023
PODCASTS - WAR ON THE ROCKS

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm no military man, so I wasn't going to comment, but since you didn't get many replies to this one, why not.

From my very limited perspective, I think that at this point, it might be worth abandoning the original goal of penetrating to Azov, which would have been a real military success, and instead go all in on retaking Bakhmut. This would be meaningless militarily but it would have a lot of symbolic and political value.

Ukraine is moving to take back Bakhmut without disrupting fighting in the south or, as it seems, the north.  I think they can do it in large part because Russia is overstretched.  Ukraine calling off the attacks in the south would allow Russia to shift resources to Bakhmut, making it far harder to take than it currently is.

Aside from this, Ukraine needs to keep the pressure on Russia's capacity to fight this war.  The southern front is a perfect way to do that.  Stepping back because "it's hard" is akin to giving up on this war altogether because Russia WILL replace its losses eventually given time and opportunity.  Not pressing hard in the south gives them both.

That said, at some point Ukraine may conclude that the southern counter offensive isn't worth continuing.  I think we are a couple of MONTHS away from that determination.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine is moving to take back Bakhmut without disrupting fighting in the south or, as it seems, the north.  I think they can do it in large part because Russia is overstretched.  Ukraine calling off the attacks in the south would allow Russia to shift resources to Bakhmut, making it far harder to take than it currently is.

Aside from this, Ukraine needs to keep the pressure on Russia's capacity to fight this war.  The southern front is a perfect way to do that.  Stepping back because "it's hard" is akin to giving up on this war altogether because Russia WILL replace its losses eventually given time and opportunity.  Not pressing hard in the south gives them both.

That said, at some point Ukraine may conclude that the southern counter offensive isn't worth continuing.  I think we are a couple of MONTHS away from that determination.

Steve

I was thinking more along the lines of the as-yet uncommitted brigades. Throwing them into the south might simply not be worth it - instead they could go towards Bakhmut, which as far as I know is much less entrenched in massive minefields. And while there have been some gains there, it's not exactly fast progress.

Whatever they decide, I think time is of the essence. If they wait a couple of months before shifting their focus away from the south, that means getting into the autumn rains. Not sure if continuing the offensive would be feasible during autumn and winter.

[kevinkin]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

MONTHS

To your point, this report is from ISW writers and a long summary of the situation as of 8/3/23.

https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/

Last paragraph is as sober as it is a reflection of what is occurring:

Ukraine is still very much in the game, and the many structural advantages it has offer good reason to expect that Ukrainian forces will liberate vital lands and the people living on them if only the West holds firm in its support.

Have to say, the choice of words seems to be reeling in the expectations of the western reader who is following this God awful war. "in the game" is something the coach tells a youth soccer team heading in the second half down by 3 goals. "vital lands" I think means not all of Ukraine/Crimea is the objective, maybe it never was. They seem to imply it's now all about obtaining defensible borders and economic access to the south. 

 It matters to Ukraine and to the West where the lines are drawn when the fighting stops—and both Western and Ukrainian interests are badly harmed by allowing the lines to remain where they are.

In other words, Russia is winning as of today? Go figure. It's coming across as a appeal for more NATO firepower sooner not later. 

Ukraine’s backers must avoid rushing to premature conclusions about Ukraine’s prospects. It is far too soon to forecast the outcome of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and there is no basis for assuming that it will fail. The West must internalize the reality that Ukrainian success is likely to be slower and more costly than many had hoped. It will be punctuated by moments of hope and disappointment. The West must therefore prepare to lean in to providing Ukraine with the materiel it will require for a long campaign and focus on getting it all to Ukraine as rapidly as possible rather than dripping it in gradually over time. 

That's a shot across the bow of western leadership. Or lack thereof. 

The likeliest path to Ukrainian success in this counter-offensive will be slow and staccato. Ukrainian troops continue to press along the front and with attacks against Russian rear areas until front-line Russian defenders lose the will or ability to continue the counter-attacks required by their elastic defense approach. At that point, Ukrainian forces may begin to grind through the Russian defenses 500 or 1,000 meters a day for a time in several locations, creating a series of footholds in the Russian lines until they reach points threatening the Russians’ ability to continue to hold the areas in between these footholds. This pattern shaped the first parts of the Kherson counter-offensive and led to a rather sudden Russian withdrawal from their initial lines to a much smaller pocket. The Ukrainians would likely follow such a limited Russian withdrawal this time by consolidating their gains, resting, and preparing to renew the effort from positions further to the south.

I think we had or have come to a similar conclusion. But the article does not mention there is a finite number within the demographics to maintain warfare endlessly which feeds back into the notion that where the line stabilizes might now be in the forefront of operational planners on both sides. 

PS: the geometry of war discussion is an interesting presentation. 

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[Beleg85]

Interesting post about mobile signal jammers used by Russians:

"Good" news continued - RUS started using multi-band jammers in trenches and portable ones for infantry teams. On the battery, of course. About +20-30kg, but the mobik will keep it. The problem is that it works and really protects against FPV drones. Of course, a drone hanging at 150-200m can easily drop something on the heads of RUS, and in principle it could, but there are now such 4W jammers used on a mass scale. Here we are already talking about a few hundred meters range.

The armor-bullet race continues. This time in the form of a WRE drone, and as some specialists had assumed even before this stage of the war - electronic warfare measures are the most effective in neutralizing drones. They don't have to be top, there just have to be a lot of them. Where are the Polish Armed Forces in this? In the forest. Diplomatically speaking. Ie there are even top systems bought - right

 But a bit too little and not at the level of ... trenches or individual vehicles. Ironically, UA are currently copying RUS ideas in this field because FPV [Ukrianian] "dildolots" have so "baked them" that the problem has become significant. It's worse with the Lancets - there is solid hardware and unusual antennas and bands. Anyway, ingredients are changed once every larger production series. Lancet is not a drone - it's precision ammunition. Photo of the RUS jammer obtained from Friends from Ukraine.

 

[womble]

On 8/2/2023 at 10:35 AM, Seedorf81 said:

I believe that if we humans could, or would, be a little less scared, selfishness would lessen considerably. And as a weird by-product of that being less afraid, dictators would have less grip on people.

 

I will not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration.

And so on. 

[Battlefront.com]

This appears to be a recent video from the east somewhere, possibly Kreminna area.  10 Russian POWs in one spot probably represents what used to be a platoon:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15gwedi/exchange_fund_pows/

Another example from this section of front that shows how bad things are on the Russian side:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Updated map for the western portion of the southern front.  Note that it geolocated the Bradley hit we saw yesterday as well as another video circulating (see first post) showing Ukrainian troops in the main trench system of Robotyne:

Steve

[Fenris]

These displays are great.  I really do wonder WTF the people who dream these up are thinking and who the hell is watching them - are they performing for children?

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Fenris

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

These displays are great.  I really do wonder WTF the people who dream these up are thinking and who the hell is watching them - are they performing for children?

 

Let's compare this impractical nonsense with the sort of practical displays produced by NATO militaries:

Far more likely that these Canadian soldiers are going to apply their performance skills on the battlefield than what those Belarusians were doing.

Steve

[Fenris]

As a kid I enjoyed the gun race

 

[Offshoot]

10 minutes ago, Fenris said:

As a kid I enjoyed the gun race

I had the same thought. These could come in handy when Russia has to dig really deep into their historic stockpiles.

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, poesel said:

Indeed, a harrowing video.

What I'm a bit surprised about is that the US soldier in the video, for all his professionalism as a soldier, seems not to be able to speak some basic Ukrainian. Words like 'wound', 'artillery', 'take', 'drive' etc... would have been tremendously helpful for him. A few words plus sign language gets you very far. Yet, he continues to speak English with the driver, who quite obviously doesn't understand a word of it.

 

 

An old joke (or possibly insult depending on your point of view) I sometimes use goes:

”What do you call a person who speaks two languages?” Answer: “Bilingual.”

”What do you call a person who speaks three or more languages?” Answer: “Multilingual.”

”what do you call a person who speaks one language?” Answer: “American.”

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

what do you call a person who speaks one language?” Answer: “American.”

Not really true, I met some who could talk Tagalog, Spanish was common in San Diego when I was there. Elvis Presley made a fair effort to sing in German.

 

[Vet 0369]

21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Not really true, I met some who could talk Tagalog, Spanish was common in San Diego when I was there. Elvis Presley made a fair effort to sing in German.

 

As I said, it’s an old joke. With the explosion of multinational cultures in the U.S., it is even less true now than it used to be. I myself read, write, and speak Spanish on an elementary scale, had French in classes in Elementary School (grades 4 through 6), a year of German in Middle school, two years of Spanish in High School, and a smattering of Japanese when I was stationed in Japan for a year.

Plus, as a Marine, I can cuss in a number of languages.

I, for one, consider the joke, which I suspect to be European based, to be an insult. 

My point was that too many judge based on heritage, unfortunately. It went flat.

[kevinkin]

28 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

My point was that too many judge based on heritage, unfortunately. It went flat.

Don't worry about it. In the two generations after WW2 there was a deserved stereotype called the "ugly America" based on the hegemony the country enjoyed. But from colonial times through 2 major waves of immigration, America spoke lots of languages at the dinner table. My wife's grandmother only knew Italian. My grandmother spoke German and English. Spanish has always been a part of the American culture. The Immigration Act of 1924 imposed quotas that gave rise to a more English speaking nation even though cities still had pockets otherwise. But English was always the business and academic language. (In chemistry being able to read German was a plus). I remember going to a Catholic wedding mass and the "other" side of the family freaked out at Latin being used. Language remains a touchy subject. Maybe there would be peace on earth if everyone used sign language. But Zepplin's Ramble On would lose all meaning. 

[MSBoxer]

When I lived in Germany in the late 80s I had a friend who gave me a hard time because I only knew two languages.  Which was not quite true, I knew English, German and could pass with Swedish.

He kept telling me how linguistically isolated Americans were when he grew up speaking 3 languages.  German, Dutch and French.  

I pointed out that since he was from Frankfurt, he was within 2 hours of Belgium and France.  Whereas I could drive 6 hours and still be in the same state.  I argued that proximity makes a difference. 

To this day we disagree in multiple languages.

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Don't worry about it. In the two generations after WW2 there was a deserved stereotype called the "ugly America" based on the hegemony the country enjoyed. But from colonial times through 2 major waves of immigration, America spoke lots of languages at the dinner table. My wife's grandmother only knew Italian. My grandmother spoke German and English. Spanish has always been a part of the American culture. The Immigration Act of 1924 imposed quotas that gave rise to a more English speaking nation even though cities still had pockets otherwise. But English was always the business and academic language. (In chemistry being able to read German was a plus). I remember going to a Catholic wedding mass and the "other" side of the family freaked out at Latin being used. Language remains a touchy subject. Maybe there would be peace on earth if everyone used sign language. But Zepplin's Ramble On would lose all meaning. 

I moved to Australia in my teens. Five years later, oh you have a Dutch surname can you talk Dutch? Carried on like that and I dreamed in English too. Years went by and mom had a stroke she woke up and asked in Dutch who are you? I better start speaking the old language again. You never lose it. Nowadays I follow on You Tube Dutch and German movies languages are just fun. A very useful puzzle at times to translate properly.

[Fenris]

More sea drone attacks overnight apparently 

Quote

Big news coming from port city Novorossiysk, Russia. Ukrainian Naval drones attacked it and managed to damage the Russian Project 775 war/landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk  which is now floating on its side and is towed away.

 

[Hapless]

Now with first person view:

 

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

I, for one, consider the joke, which I suspect to be European based, to be an insult.

Well it does sound European and I think it is meant as an insult.

At least the language issue is part of a more general sentiment that many Europeans share, where US Americans are seen as presumptuous and quite full of themselves while at the same time being awfully uneducated about everything outside the US.

Things like

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

America spoke lots of languages

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

American culture

don't help either. My Spanish teacher, from Chile, was always upset when someone talked about the USA like this, saying that America is a large continent that spans from Alaska down to Fire Land.

Back at school, a girl returned from a year in the US once said that she was being told: "You women in Europe are so lucky that you don't have your period." If you want to have some fun, check out the internet, it is full of totally incredible statements like this one.

As for the language issue: I don't know how many US Americans actually speak more than one language but it is possibly more about attitude than ability. I certainly met a few who were able to speak at least some broken German but just didn't bother and didn't even consider that it might be impolite. That is hardly an exclusive US feature, though. While we Germans are generally very quick to switch to English in any business context, we generally expect everyone to understand and talk German when abroad on vacations. I think the Dutch know what I am talking about...

[Carolus]

Drone dropped devices which play sounds of gunfire and voices to confuse the Russians.

I know someone has this exact idea here in this thread! Now apparently in use at the front!

[poesel]

Hmm, my comment about the US soldier not speaking Ukrainian has sparked a discussion in a direction that was not intended at all.

What I meant is that I was surprised that he was so unprepared in the language department. He knew he was going to a foreign country where he likely needed to communicate with people who don't speak English. In highly critical situations where your life depends on it. 100 words, no grammar, will get you through anything.

This was not meant as a quip at US language education in general.