How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not really. Those of us unwilling to log in to the Twitter can't read threads or view author feeds. We just see the first tweet.

Really?  "Operational System"?  

"ChatGPT - why can't we have nice things?"

"LongLeftFlank"

[Kinophile]

17 hours ago, Teufel said:

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?

I dunno,  my impression was that we supported them turning on each other,  rather than one over the other. Prig in power would be just as bad,  if not worse than Putin. Pretty sure zero people here have a good opinion of Prig or supported him as the "Better"  side.   

I was just happy to see a Croc turning on an Alligator.  They're both murderous predators, the more they're fighting each other the better. 

Our ideal outcome is both Croc & Alligator drowning each other. 

Unfortunately all they've done is hiss nastily at each other, nipped a tail and backed off. It's not over but man, my fingers are crossed that they go for another round and really cut each other down. 

Good riddance to both scumbags. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Kinophile

[kevinkin]

WSJ this morning:

Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence:
Bulgaria turns against Moscow in negotiating the sale of two Russian-designed reactors to Kyiv

Another screw tightening. 

[Jiggathebauce]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Not only the unexploded bomblets. Another problem with cluster munitions is that they are inaccurate and hit a large area. In several cases, Ukrainian cluster munitions have killed and injured Ukrainian civilians.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/06/ukraine-civilian-deaths-cluster-munitions

 

The main problem is of course still the rampant and indiscriminate Russian use of these weapons, which has also been extensively documented by HRW, just in case anybody wonders.

I've come to find that certain users just default to "HRW and UN not saying anything about Russia", and that everytime they do this is it is an emotional response with no basis in fact. We get it, but people looking at the forum may not do the research themselves and come away with false impressions.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[Letter from Prague]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Really?  "Operational System"?  

Those of us who didn't study military academy have no idea when stuff is common terminology, and when it's your own state of the art stuff, man.

Also, hi Mick Ryan if you're reading this, lol.

[The_Capt]

Fair point.  It was more a shot at LLF who I get the sense is used to being the smartest guy in the room…until he got into this one.  I know I am not either because I can barely keep track of what is happening let alone why.  I mean we are about 90 seconds to midnight in a good day, Russians are using tanks as VBIEDs and our Prime Minister just tweeted Taylor Swift FFS.

[kraze]

18 hours ago, Teufel said:

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?

because when a russian, who himself was a part of the problem due to being an oligarch, supports another russian, who is a war criminal responsible for horrible warcrimes without count and who is uprising because Ukrainians aren't being killed effectively enough - means that that russian is perfectly fine with the war, warcrimes and he isn't ok only with putin because they had a falling out at some point in the past. Not even a big one seeing as how Khodorkovsky is alive.

Khodorkovsky supported the immediate "regime change", which would possibly have led to a more "effective" war on a russian part. And this is exactly what makes him no better than putin or prig or whoever else. Or did you somehow think Prig winning was a better deal? Or that it was an "anti-war" coup?

Edited July 6, 2023 by kraze

[Letter from Prague]

18 hours ago, Teufel said:

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?

I think double standard between "Russian oligarch and politician publicly saying things in support of" and "battlefront forums poster saying 'lol I hope they shoot each other, where's my popcorn'" is pretty fair.

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I know I am not either because I can barely keep track of what is happening let alone why.  I mean we are about 90 seconds to midnight in a good day, Russians are using tanks as VBIEDs and our Prime Minister just tweeted Taylor Swift FFS.

That's because the world was really planned to end in 2012 but didn't, and since then, the Matrix is just improvising and the simulation is getting more and more bizarre. I mean, Donald Trump for president? They really expect us to believe this is reality?

[dan/california]

59 minutes ago, kraze said:

because when a russian, who himself was a part of the problem due to being an oligarch, supports another russian, who is a war criminal responsible for horrible warcrimes without count and who is uprising because Ukrainians aren't being killed effectively enough - means that that russian is perfectly fine with the war, warcrimes and he isn't ok only with putin because they had a falling out at some point in the past. Not even a big one seeing as how Khodorkovsky is alive.

Khodorkovsky supported the immediate "regime change", which would possibly have led to a more "effective" war on a russian part. And this is exactly what makes him no better than putin or prig or whoever else. Or did you somehow think Prig winning was a better deal? Or that it was an "anti-war" coup?

I was mostly just hoping that Prig's seizure of Rostov would result in a complete and epic seizure of Russian logistic support for for their forces in Ukraine. I am still bummed that didn't happen.

[LongLeftFlank]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Fair point.  It was more a shot at LLF who I get the sense is used to being the smartest guy in the room…until he got into this one.  I know I am not either because I can barely keep track of what is happening let alone why.  I mean we are about 90 seconds to midnight in a good day, Russians are using tanks as VBIEDs and our Prime Minister just tweeted Taylor Swift FFS.

Nah, I am barely rock-paper-scissors here, still less 4D chess.

(Also, being the smart guy with 'the answers' mostly makes you the btch of the guys who ask the questions. It's why engineers don't rule the world they built for us)

...I simply had no clue how to access the Ryan thread until a kindly Forumite provided a hack (now bookmarked).

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I've come to find that certain users just default to "HRW and UN not saying anything about Russia", and that everytime they do this is it is an emotional response with no basis in fact. We get it, but people looking at the forum may not do the research themselves and come away with false impressions.

I think it's more than that.  I see the argument that Ukraine has been suffering for 8 years and during that time nobody did anything to address Russia's crimes.  Not the UN, not Human Rights groups, nobody.  Now that Ukraine is fighting for its life, how dare the ineffective outsiders pass judgement.

Then there's the whole Amnesty International debacle.  Clearly pro-Russian points of view were the focus of their "study" and clearly upper management failed to realize that until after their one sided, flawed report was put out.  I know I'm never, ever going to think of Amnesty International the same way ever again.

Gotta say, thanks there's quite a bit of truth to wondering what the point of Human Rights groups are since they don't seem to be very effective at lobbying for consequences against bad actors.  Documenting crimes that have already happened?  Well, still a good role for them to fill.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I simply had no clue how to access the Ryan thread until a kindly Forumite provided a hack (now bookmarked).

Yeah, I think we all need to be aware of this brand new Twitter "feature" designed to shore up their failing business model by forcing people to get accounts if they want to read content.

It's an extra step, but I think we should adopt an informal policy of posting the text from follow up Tweets that aren't visible through direct linking.  Most are only 1 Tweet long so that's not really an issue most of the time, 2-3 is pretty normal when it isn't.  Nick Ryan's 26 part Tweet, on the other hand, makes it rather laborious to cut and paste so some reader app is a good idea.

On a related note, last year I finally gave in and created a Twitter account so I could look at the Igor Girkin account after it received a blanket "over 18" rating.  Having an account is the only way to view 18+ posts or accounts.  I immediately went into settings and disabled everything and will never, ever use it to post.  Just like my Facebook account

Steve

[kevinkin]

Setting other preconditions:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610

This was out in the Spring making their case.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-richard-haass-west-battlefield-negotiations

All for Peace, but this comes across as a bit desperate and weak. Unless it's just a fresh water fishing trip staged in salt water. You never know what a bottom feeder like Putin might bite on. So what the heck. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by kevinkin

[kimbosbread]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gotta say, thanks there's quite a bit of truth to wondering what the point of Human Rights groups are since they don't seem to be very effective at lobbying for consequences against bad actors.  Documenting crimes that have already happened?  Well, still a good role for them to fill.

Steve

A charity is like a business in that it offers a product. In a charity’s case, it is feelz, or just a place for children of the rich to work without stress. The recipient of the charity’s largesse or whatever they do is a tertiary concern in most cases.

Think about all those charity balls and villas on Lac Leman, you’d have to be Jesus to not enjoy those!

[Battlefront.com]

Video showing how difficult concealed terrain can be for both attacker and defender.  In this clip Ukrainians engaged the defenders, killing at least one, and then got in and among the defenses.  Only then did someone start shooting back, probably because he was only then aware that Ukrainian soldiers were a meter away.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14s2d8u/at_any_moment_everything_can_change/

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Yet more autophagy within the Russian uniformed services (ChrisO).

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676645500781469711.html

1/ Plans to transfer the Russian Interior Ministry's GROM special forces unit to an expanded Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) are causing discontent. A commentary sheds an interesting light on the Rosgvardiya's organisational problems.... 

13/ "The guys from the aforementioned units told me how they went to the Special Military Operation, how they were treated there and what tasks they were given. I'll keep quiet...

Edited July 6, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

54 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I was mostly just hoping that Prig's seizure of Rostov would result in a complete and epic seizure of Russian logistic support for for their forces in Ukraine. I am still bummed that didn't happen.

considering that Prig is in Petersburg and there's no sign of punishment for him apart from 180 degree flip flop on TV regarding Wagner and a rumor of Surovikin getting screwed - I'd say they may have just "settled it out of court".

Whoever (quite possibly the real owner of Wagner - Utkin, among others) that could've gained anything from showing putin that Moscow is a very easy fair game should someone tries - probably gained something. At the same time the price was burning Wagner that was going to be burnt anyway. Remember - on June 24th it was to stop existing completely. But now it got to actively exist (and extort) in Africa and stuffs. The lack of people walking out of a window en masse 2 weeks down the line backs up an argument about this "settlement".

Edited July 6, 2023 by kraze

[kraze]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

They are saying a lot. Here's a very detailed report documenting the Russian cluster munitions attack at the Kramatorsk train station that killed 58 civilians.

Russia repeatedly tried to blame Ukraine for this warcrime, but it's clear from the HRW fact finding work that it was Russia.

You cannot honestly read this and still claim that HRW keeps quiet about Russia's crimes.

https://www.hrw.org/video-photos/interactive/2023/02/21/death-at-the-station/russian-cluster-munition-attack-in-kramatorsk

 

well, at least that's some kind of an upgrade over them calling russian invasion a "civil war" for 8+ years.
still doesn't excuse them protesting cluster munitions for Ukraine.

[Bulletpoint]

20 minutes ago, kraze said:

well, at least that's some kind of an upgrade over them calling russian invasion a "civil war" for 8+ years.

Source? Closest I can find is that the Red Cross (not HRW) called the war a "non-international armed conflict" in 2014, which was then translated into "civil war" by TASS news Agency, which is a propaganda mouthpiece of the Russian state.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[DesertFox]

Lets see what is happening there over the next days. Interesting axis. Tokmak direction.

 

 

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1677004054466002962?s=20

Edited July 6, 2023 by DesertFox

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-expected-provide-cluster-munitions-ukraine-nyt-2023-07-06/

"In the aid package, which is expected to be well above $500 million in value, Ukraine will receive munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, one of the officials said."

Seems this is happening for sure now.

 

Question about cluster weapons: Doctrinally how would the US have treated areas hit by DPICM or other cluster weapons? Or how was it done in the gulf war? Would US forces operate and maneuver normally in these areas?

I suspect the dud are nowhere near as dangerous as mines...

[Jr Buck Private]

Well the Ukrainians have put some dents in the Russian lines like at Robotyne, but still no major breakthroughs yet.   The question I have is when the real push comes with their newly formed assault brigades will it hit at one of those dents?   Or will they strike at some point that hasn't been attacked yet.  Seems like those dents will have drawn some Russian reinforcements, hopefully weakening other points.

[Splinty]

24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-expected-provide-cluster-munitions-ukraine-nyt-2023-07-06/

"In the aid package, which is expected to be well above $500 million in value, Ukraine will receive munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, one of the officials said."

Seems this is happening for sure now.

 

Question about cluster weapons: Doctrinally how would the US have treated areas hit by DPICM or other cluster weapons? Or how was it done in the gulf war? Would US forces operate and maneuver normally in these areas?

I suspect the dud are nowhere near as dangerous as mines...

My Bradley ran over an unexploded cluster munition after the ground war in Desert Storm. It did explode, but the only damage was to one of the rubber track pads. Having said that, I wouldn't want to step on one. It would probably remove or shatter a foot.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Splinty

[The_MonkeyKing]

25 minutes ago, Splinty said:

My Bradley ran over an unexploded cluster munition after the ground war in Desert Storm. It did explode, but the only damage was to one of the rubber track pads. Having said that, I wouldn't want to step on one. It would probably remove or shatter a foot.

I still wonder how sensitive these things are. Sure if you drive over it with a tank... haha

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Lets see what is happening there over the next days. Interesting axis. Tokmak direction.

 

 

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1677004054466002962?s=20

Flanking the the Russians out of Robtyne would be pretty significant.