How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I used CMO last night and came to the same conclusion. I never got around to posting since this thread moves at light speed. Thanks for posting in detail. I think this is a finding that we just have place in the back of our minds for now. Send me PM, I would enjoy looking at your CMO sandbox. There are a lot factors in play. But they are easy to adjust with that software. BTW, did you give the Ka-62 ground targets to engage? 

So would I if you can post the scenario somewhere. I know I could do the same but I'm happy to steal yours and play around with it 

Dave

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers in a trench on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine, June 8, 2023. ROMAN CHOP / AP"

[Billy Ringo]

Supply chains:  If the US military and military industrial base leverages supply chain expertise from the US public sector, (ie. retail, wholesale, logistics/FedEx/UPS, etc.), it would have a significant edge over other economies.   What major retailers and niche specific retail optimization firms are doing in the US is pretty far ahead of the rest of the World.  (The Nordics are very good also but, last I checked, they aggregate a lot of their resources/braintrust in the US.)  And, the US is still the preferred destination point for the brightest engineers in this niche.  (The single smartest/highest IQ person I've ever known works for Wal-Mart if that gives you any indication, they lured him away from a teaching spot at MIT.)

The covid/supply chain disruptions of 2021/2022 threw a big wrench in the systems but wholesalers and retailers pretty quickly figured out how to adapt and work around the challenges.

But the first word in my comment is "If", I have no experience or visibility as to whether the US military and military industrial supply chains are equal to the public sector or if they spend much time trying to learn from the public sector. 

[Offshoot]

Another longer video by the people who made the command post video in Marinka. This one covers an assault on Russian positions by the 80th Air Assault Brigade. The subtitles work well enough to give a good idea of what is going on.

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Nice analysis! However, I'd want to make the following change to the scenario. The Soviet Air Force was known to use a Jump airfield near the front lines. It is little more than a runaway strip (perhaps a highway) with the basic necessities for maintenance and supply (maybe simply a refueler and starter).

As a result, the plane takes off from the main base and heads to Jump airfield. He remains there till the time comes. After the mission to prevent any retaliation, the aircraft just returns to the main base. I believe the UKR Air Force is doing the same.

Yes,  with soviet airframe designed with that in mind. But is that how NATO platforms are used? My impression is that they are more centralised; does the Jump field concept exist with NATO/US doctrine?

I'm sure we've thought of it before, and certainly it was used in WW2 etc,  but is the F16 built and used with that in mind? 

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

A brief update on the Kremina-Svatove Direction. On RU channels, I see virtually nothing. The developers of the UKR DeepState Map stated that no changes in situation except Ru fail at Serebryanka woodland (a large forest south-west of Kreminna), which is a good thing.

 Just in case full post(direct quote from their ENG channel)

So far, we may conclude that RU attempted something that has so far resulted in nothing. But definitely the timing was a way off due to apparent unpreparedness of RU propagandists.

Fits with other accounts from the Luhansk region. A definite RUS push that was/is steadily crunched by Drones and arty and entrenched infantry  into a nothing-burger. 

Operationally,  the ZSU barely broke a sweat dealing with it. 

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes,  with soviet airframe designed with that in mind. But is that how NATO platforms are used? My impression is that they are more centralised; does the Jump field concept exist with NATO/US doctrine?

I'm sure we've thought of it before, and certainly it was used in WW2 etc,  but is the F16 built and used with that in mind? 

 

The highway is a bit of a stretch, but there is Kulbakino airfield near Mykolaiv.
I believe that would be suitable for an F-16. To go to the Tokmak and Berdyanks Directions, you'll have to take a detour first, but let's look at the numbers.

From Vinnnytsa to Vekyka Novosylka - 625 km
From  Kulbakino to Vekyka Novosylka - 395 km
From Vinnnytsa to Orekhiv - 560 km
From  Kulbakino to Orekhiv - 315 km

[Grigb]

To be fair here is new quote from RU MOD

Quote

Since June 4, the AFU has launched 263 attacks on the positions of Russian troops.

Thanks to the competent and selfless actions of our units, all of them were repulsed, the enemy did not achieve the goals.

This was stated on Tuesday by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting of the board of the military department.

 

[kevinkin]

https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/19/moscow-claims-us-plans-to-drop-mosquitos-with-malaria-onto-troops-18975240/

What a metaphor, both mosquitos and the RA suck. 

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Have you managed to find any weapons which would work for this? I do not think there is any mobile SHORAD in the Nato inventory which could reach out to 10 KM. US ones are based on Stinger, so no better than MANPADS in the range department.

Maybe the Stryker when equipped with sidewinders?
https://www.facebook.com/generaldynamicslandsystems/posts/yes-those-are-aim-9x-sidewinder-missiles-arming-the-stryker-maneuver-shorad-laun/1844875482213038/

Or the Croatale:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crotale_(missile)

Edited June 20, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Seedorf81]

49 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/19/moscow-claims-us-plans-to-drop-mosquitos-with-malaria-onto-troops-18975240/

What a metaphor, both mosquitos and the RA suck. 

Not all mosquitos suck.

https://www.baesystems.com/en/heritage/de-havilland-mosquito

[DesertFox]

Bradley in action

 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Bradley in action

 

 

 

Seems like the same assault wr saw couple weeks ago. The one with the pile of Bradleys

[DesertFox]

Nice

 

 

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems like the same assault wr saw couple weeks ago. The one with the pile of Bradleys

Yep looks like the same area. IIRC 47th Brig are the only ones using Bradleys. Has to be somewhere north of Tokmak.

[_Morpheus_]

On 6/18/2023 at 12:05 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Unusual to see drone video of AGL shots pummeling infantry positions.  Interesting to note a couple of times we saw what looked to be direct hits but the Russians there weren't incapacitated. Though for sure many were wounded and it appears at least a couple KIA, most probably from AGL hits.

Steve

Part #2

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Yes,  with soviet airframe designed with that in mind. But is that how NATO platforms are used? My impression is that they are more centralised; does the Jump field concept exist with NATO/US doctrine?

I'm sure we've thought of it before, and certainly it was used in WW2 etc,  but is the F16 built and used with that in mind? 

 

I think at one time that was how the Harrier was expected to be used.

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1671095803589324803

Bleeping twitter, anyway pic of bone dry ground in drained Khahovka reservoir.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems like the same assault wr saw couple weeks ago. The one with the pile of Bradleys

Yup, seems like it.  The Brad passed something disabled in the path, but that part was cut out of the video.  There is a disabled Brad in the aftermath documentation that seems to correspond with this one.  You can see it's earlier as there is only one path and no bunched up disabled Brads on the right side.  Looks like this Brad was the one that we got video of earlier helping evac the one that hit a mine.

The great thing to see is how the Bradley's stabilized fire controls work in reality.  That Brad was driving at a pretty good clip and yet was accurately landing rounds right in the treeline.  Not in front, not over, right smack dab where the enemy might be.  And it was doing it while on approach, not just after getting to the trouble spot.  And boy, those Bushmaster rounds sure do make an impression!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Fits with other accounts from the Luhansk region. A definite RUS push that was/is steadily crunched by Drones and arty and entrenched infantry  into a nothing-burger. 

Operationally,  the ZSU barely broke a sweat dealing with it. 

This is entirely possible.  We've seen several of these so-called offensives that were over before they started.  Several, in fact, that nobody was even sure if the offensive had started and yet we here were already declaring it over.

It is often pointed out that Russia often takes the bad things it absolutely does and projects them onto others who definitely don't.  We might be seeing a similar thing with the southern offensive where the Russians see Ukraine having a hard time and think "based on what we know of our offensives, Ukraine has failed".

Steve

[dan/california]

I am honestly not sure if this is real combat footage, or an add for Ford trucks. Although I guess both is always an option...

[Boche]

On 6/19/2023 at 12:15 PM, FancyCat said:

 

 Honestly I find it hard to believe he couldnt get donations going. Or maybe I just missed a piece of the story. 

[Seedorf81]

For the Dutchies..

Dutch version of Ukranian info-site, clear and consice.

 

For the drone-lovers..

From seconds 34 - 52 wheeled mine-laying (AT) drone.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The great thing to see is how the Bradley's stabilized fire controls work in reality.  That Brad was driving at a pretty good clip and yet was accurately landing rounds right in the treeline.  Not in front, not over, right smack dab where the enemy might be.  And it was doing it while on approach, not just after getting to the trouble spot.  And boy, those Bushmaster rounds sure do make an impression!

Yeah.  That is something to see!