How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

Good lord what an incoherent mess:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-mixes-threats-of-new-offensive-in-ukraine-with-offers-of-peace-talks-1.6439951

 

[Grigb]

UKR Kovalenko (colleague of Mashovets) reports:

Quote

According to available information, the Russian command issued special instructions to their units. After leaving certain territories they are told to leave “scorched earth” behind them.  I'm talking about the destruction of almost all types of infrastructure facilities, from sewage treatment plants to electrical substations...

An interesting point to note is that the commanders of units stationed in the temporarily occupied Luhansk region in the area of Svatove, Kremenna, Shchastia, and Rubizhne were the first to receive such an order.  This is not in the very epicenter of the June events, or rather not yet.

It's really intriguing since the rumor I mentioned before (that the RU situation is far worse than everyone thinks) states that the RU high command is quite pessimistic about the RU army's ability to hold any UKR land except Crimea (retreat from Crimea is explicitly forbidden by Putin).

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU arty is weak, Capt is right. Your friend is wrong. 

And thankfully they are getting weaker every day:

 

 

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1668959959218892801

Kadyrov claims he send his boyz on Search and Rescue mission:

Battalion commander Ahmat claims Kadyrov ordered them to abandon their positions and look for Delimkhamov ""[ungodly amount of emojis]" Complete withdrawal of all units deployed towards Mariinka, heading towards where Adam Delimkhanov is located We have received orders from Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov to find him there by any means necessary and get him out, no matter what. A new order for AHMAT special forces, we will execute it unequivocally. AHMAT - STRENGTH RUSSIA - THE POWER OF ALLAH IS GREAT!

Where is Wally?

Edited June 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

Just now, DesertFox said:

And thankfully they are getting weaker every day:

 

 

Yes, UKR are aggressively destroying RU artillery - NATO superiority in gun quality and CB radar/equipment is proving decisive. But it is not important because based on RU MOD description nothing of sort is happening and RU are waging a successful defensive battle. 

[panzermartin]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Riiiight.  So the Russians do not have a history of lying about things in this war. I mean why would they lie about this..hmmm, let’s see.  Well to hide their operational shortfalls and weaknesses would be the first big one.  The second would be to over inflate their success for domestic consumption.  A third would be self-interest, the RA commander definitely does not want to highlight any issue he may have had in this fight.  A fourth could be simply…it is the Russian narrative method - the same folks who brought us hundreds of destroyed Abrams and “those warcrimes were crisis actors”.

Look, your point on us not becoming a pro-Ukraine propaganda echo chamber is taken. However, I am not ready to take the RA commanders record of events after it has been pushed through the Russian state media machine as a reliable data point.  Particularly when the visual evidence does not support it.  An interesting thing about the 10th man principe is that the strength of the devils advocate position is a key consideration - and so far it is fairly weak.

There you said it. I dont want to participate in another echo chamber, there are lots out there. Its understandable that given the composition of this board, that we might be turning into a North Atlantic war room and less of a discussion board, which might raise morale but isnt interesting, productive or even helpful for UA in the long run, if thats what most are interested about.

@Grigb I never said that russian arty as a whole isnt' affected by a year's and a half campaign. I only pointed out that the specific 47th incident was not enough for a conclusion in that sector. You even said that this failed breach was a success in revealing the arty positions of RU arty reserves, the same that The_Capt said that they dont exist. I  also don't think other posters here need lecturing like we are part of a military unit and we are briefed by the comissar. Thanks.

 

[keas66]

Panzermartin/Buschi  seem to have taken on the formal role of naysayers on this thread  . I guess seeing a reverse view of the same thing has its uses  .

Edited June 14, 2023 by keas66

[Grigb]

Now let's talk a little bit about RU politics. Recently one prominent RU Nat talking head - Alksnis wrote interesting post(quoted by Girking). The most interesting thing is the tone. I translated the most relevant parts:

Quote

It was a shock to me that the president has absolutely no control over the situation at the front, does not know which territories are under our control and which are controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine...

After your [Putin] words, which I quoted, I was once again convinced that our affairs are bad if the Supreme Commander-in-Chief absolutely does not control the situation at the front...

I don't want to give you [Putin] advice, because it's obviously useless, but try to have a detailed map of the fighting in Ukraine on your wall in your office, where all changes in the course of the fighting will be noted daily. It is desirable that they would be done after current Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov, or even Defense Minister Shoigu would finish their daily reports to you personally. Maybe then you won't embarrass the whole world by not knowing the situation at the front?

Alksnis is nobody. Yet, he already believes he can directly bark at Glorious God-President of the Glorious Motherland. Very interesting.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously? So the RA Commander reports that his defence was well orchestrated and supported…and we are just going to roll with that as fact?

The Russians were aware a Ukrainian advance was underway.  It was possible to cue artillery fire effectively.  In Romanchuk’s account: ‘artillery units intended for counter-battery combat suppressed enemy artillery in firing positions.  And then they continued to hit the forces and means of the first echelon units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’

Artillery fire starts landing on the Ukrainian armoured infantry company.  The video shows that one unidentified vehicle detonated.  Another two started smoking.  Source: Russian MOD

 

The Facts going into the Russian MoD is like a hot woman eating a lovely strawberry. 

Sure it looks delicious going in, she puts on a good show, but when it finally comes out

-  that ain't no strawberry. 

[Kraft]

 

[Kraft]

26 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

@Grigb I never said that russian arty as a whole isnt' affected by a year's and a half campaign. I only pointed out that the specific 47th incident was not enough for a conclusion in that sector. You even said that this failed breach was a success in revealing the arty positions of RU arty reserves, the same that The_Capt said that they dont exist. I  also don't think other posters here need lecturing like we are part of a military unit and we are briefed by the comissar. Thanks

I'd add that if those Bradleys blowing up is just a single piece of information fragment, not the whole picture, the same should count towards artillery being there or not being there.

If the local commander knew a Ka-52 was going to have some target practice, the rational choice would be to allocate artillery to a different area, where it is more needed perhaps.

I do believe that due to the armada pulled into those areas and liberal use of Himars etc Russian arty is properly not working as effective as it would otherwise, its nowhere near non existant nor irrelevant. Plenty of dead to prove that point wrong.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Kraft

[Pete Wenman]

Thug Barrel life

 

 

[DesertFox]

Hes stating the obvious as a reminder. You can't trust any russian sources until verified. By now everyone really should know.

 

 

[Butschi]

25 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Panzermartin/Buschi  seem to have taken on the formal role of naysayers on this thread  . I guess seeing a reverse view of the same thing has its uses  .

Naysayer? I don't think so, at least not just for the sake of it  I just value good analyses and discussions to gain knowledge. While I understand the temptation of getting rid of those annoying contrary opinions, the result is an echo chamber which is the exact opposite of gaining solid knowledge.

As long as people keep it civil, accept facts and can be reasoned with (there is of course no point in discussing with people who are always right, no matter how much evidence there is that they are actually wrong) I see no use in excluding them.

[Harmon Rabb]

Medvedev threatening to destroy submarine communications cables like some two bit gangster. I think it was some smart folks on this forum who said this is a realistic option for escalation that Russia still has in this war.

But I suppose if they do carry out this threat, Ukraine will still be blamed, like for the explosion at Kakhovka dam by the Kremlin.

[Bulletpoint]

I think tensions and testosterone can run a bit high in this forum sometimes. We all want to see Ukraine kick Russia out as fast as possible, but it's also important to remember to be critical of all information coming out of this war.

Two things stand out to me: Ukraine's vehicle losses are likely very small. Because the Russians are clearly capable of filming what they shoot, so one can ask why there are not many more of such videos, if they are really tearing Ukrainian vehicles apart.

One the other hand, the front line is not currently moving very fast. If Russians were really on their last legs as the propaganda tells us, drunk, stupid, leaderless, incompetent, out of ammo, etc. then Ukraine should go through their lines as a knife through butter. That's not what we are seeing so far.

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Medvedev threatening to destroy submarine communications cables like some two bit gangster. I think it was some smart folks on this forum who said this is a realistic option for escalation that Russia still has in this war.

But I suppose if they do carry out this threat, Ukraine will still be blamed, like for the explosion at Kakhovka dam by the Kremlin.

It's probably more dangerous to Russia,  as a threshold.  If there's one thing capitalist democracies do not tolerate,  it's other people ****ing with the flow of money. 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think tensions and testosterone can run a bit high in this forum sometimes. We all want to see Ukraine kick Russia out as fast as possible, but it's also important to remember to be critical of all information coming out of this war.

Two things stand out to me: Ukraine's vehicle losses are likely very small. Because the Russians are clearly capable of filming what they shoot, so one can ask why there are not many more of such videos, if they are really tearing Ukrainian vehicles apart.

One the other hand, the front line is not currently moving very fast. If Russians were really on their last legs as the propaganda tells us, drunk, stupid, leaderless, incompetent, out of ammo, etc. then Ukraine should go through their lines as a knife through butter. That's not what we are seeing so far.

This. 

We've talked about corrosive warfare. We've talked about lack of traditional air cover. We've talked about ubiquitous ISR. 

This isn't going to be Desert Storm or Al Alamein. Relax everybody.

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think tensions and testosterone can run a bit high in this forum sometimes. We all want to see Ukraine kick Russia out as fast as possible, but it's also important to remember to be critical of all information coming out of this war.

L things stand out to me: Ukraine's vehicle losses are likely very small. Because the Russians are clearly capable of filming what they shoot, so one can ask why there are not many more of such videos, if they are really tearing Ukrainian vehicles apart.

One the other hand, the front line is not currently moving very fast. If Russians were really on their last legs as the propaganda tells us, drunk, stupid, leaderless, incompetent, out of ammo, etc. then Ukraine should go through their lines as a knife through butter. That's not what we are seeing so far.

But we are,  just at a reasonable,  non-Fall Of France rate. 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

A little off topic, but interesting:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

On 6/12/2023 at 2:10 PM, Haiduk said:

 Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 

But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 

Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 

Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water

Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist

 

 

 

couple days old satellite as well:

 

Starting to look pretty damn radical

Edited June 14, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing
added satellite photo

[cesmonkey]

Has some quotes from a soldier with the call sign of LumberJack

 

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

 I don't see any point in them lying particularly about the use of artillery here...

Sorry, just back from the emergency room.  I rolled my eyes so hard they were stuck staring at my eyebrows.  (which I also asked them to trim as they really needed it).

By that logic they should have immediately just said, "yep Moskva is on the bottom of the Black Sea."  I mean after all it wasn't like she was going to return to port right?