How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Just to add some info, it is the 79th Air Assault Brigade.

Ukrainian Armed Forces repel attack with armored vehicles in Marinka - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-repel-attack-with-armored-vehicles-in-marinka/

Unfortunately the English closed captions are not good in this video, but anyway

 

Shame the subtitles suck because there was a lot going on here that would be good to have understood better.

One thing that struck me while watching the harrowing/stressful communications between the HQ and the forces on the ground (the guy with the shaved head was visibly shaking, especially after getting the message they had friendly WIA and KIA) is that these guys might not be exposed to the same immediate physical risks as the men they are commanding, but it pretty obvious it is not a picnic for them.

Another thing that struck me was how wrong soldiers were many moons ago when they were worried that all this tech would overly constrain their operations.  What they were worried about is some Brigade CO would be micromanaging their battles, but thanks to the proliferation of low level ISR there's no need for that.  The Platoons and Companies can do pretty much what they've always done in the past, but with better coordination.  Back in the old days a tank commander might be pretty pissed to be told to fire at something specific he can't see, but now?  He should trust his commander that whatever he's being instructed to hit is more important than whatever else the tank thinks it should be doing. 

In a sense, this is like the player in Combat Mission overriding a tank's TacAI.  We players don't doubt for a second that we're in command of a better view of the battlefield and therefore our TARGET Command should be obeyed except in the case of self defense.

I gotta say... it's pretty strange for me to see warfare evolving to look more like Combat Mission instead of the other way around.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Two important bits from ISW's June 13th report:

Quote

Putin indicated that he is unwilling to announce a second wave of mobilization or declare martial law, despite maintaining his maximalist objectives in Ukraine. Putin acknowledged that some Russian “public figures” are discussing the urgent need for mobilization but noted that there “is currently no need today” for mobilization. Putin boasted about Russian contract service recruitment efforts using rhetoric consistent with ISW’s previous assessments that Putin is disinterested in announcing another mobilization wave and is instead prioritizing volunteer recruitment.[13] Putin also downplayed milbloggers’ concern over the Kremlin’s decision to not declare full-scale martial law throughout Russia, stating that Russia needs to expand its law enforcement rather than declare martial law. ISW continues to assess that Putin is a risk-averse actor who is hesitant to upset Russian society by ordering another mobilization wave or establishing martial law throughout Russia, indicating that Putin has not yet decided to fully commit to fighting a total war. Putin’s statements likely aim to reassure his constituencies that he does not intend to expand the “special military operation” further.

So far, no sign of Putin getting another mobilization underway, perhaps (wrongly) thinking that "nationalizing" volunteer and PMCs is going to somehow fix Russia's numbers problem.  As I've said for months now, the longer Putin waits to pull the trigger on this the bigger the Ukrainian victory this year will be.  Just imagine if Putin had even 50,000 more roughly trained and equipped soldiers in the southern front and Bakhmut right now..  Things would be far bloodier for both sides, but most likely much slower on the Ukrainian side.

Quote

Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general. Putin stated that Russian forces do not plan to divert forces from other sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to Belgorod and other border oblasts in response to border incursions and drone strikes on Russian territory.[14] Putin stated that Russian leadership is considering creating a buffer zone within Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching Russian territory, but caveated the suggestion by saying that Russian officials will not immediately create a buffer zone and will examine how the situation develops.[15] Russian officials have previously responded to limited tactical activity in Belgorod Oblast and other border oblasts by calling for a Russian offensive to push Ukrainian forces away from the international border with Russia in Kharkiv Oblast.[16] Putin’s comments indicate that the Kremlin does not intend to react to cross-border operations in an effort to preserve forces for combat in Ukraine, despite growing discontent within Russia prompted by the raids. Putin also confirmed that Russian conscripts are serving in Belgorod Oblast and that Colonel General Alexander Lapin commanded conscripts to repel the pro-Ukrainian all-Russian limited raids in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces are likely deploying conscripts to serve in border oblasts due to a lack of reserves and an unwillingness to transfer forces away from the frontline elsewhere in Ukraine. ISW previously assessed that limited raids and border shelling in Belgorod Oblast have become a notable focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership, and Putin is likely attempting to address critiques that he has ignored the situation there in order to insulate himself from further criticism.[17] 

ISW is (no doubt) correctly interpreting Putin's doublespeak to mean nothing is going to be done about the Belgorod raids except to throw untrained conscripts at the problem.  This appears to confirm our speculation that Russia is fully tapped out in terms of combat power.  Putin's content to use politically difficult conscripts instead of sparing even a relatively small amount of contract forces from anywhere else.

Steve

[sburke]

One small problem with Putin's declarations.

Quote

Putin’s statements likely aim to reassure his constituencies that he does not intend to expand the “special military operation” further.

The ... err SMO has been expanded... to Belgorod. 

[sburke]

Says there is video but not on the page

The joy of liberation – Navy shares video of liberation of Donetsk Oblast’s Makarivka (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Russian occupiers in the village were partially eliminated and partially taken captive, while some escaped through the fields, as seen in the drone footage.

Stabilization work is ongoing in the village.

The Russian army tried to wipe Makarivka off the face of the earth with artillery and air strikes, following their retreat. However, Ukrainian forces managed to protect the settlement.

Ukrainian defenders have moved forward 6.5 km in the past week, liberating seven settlements, including Makarivka, since the beginning of the counteroffensive.

 

This one has video

Ukraine Claims Recapture of Makarivka in Donetsk Oblast (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Russian military bloggers claimed it was “premature” to say Ukraine was in full control of Makarivka, but offered no evidence of a Russian presence in the town.

The 35th Marine Brigade’s video showed fighters from the 137th entering Makarivka, firing on Russian positions, and posing with their battalion flag. Credit: 35th Marine Brigade via Storyful

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by sburke

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

IAnother mistake Ukraine made in this battle was not keeping the Russians from poking around the disabled vehicles.  There were woodlines nearby that a harassing force could have been delployed.  This would increase the chances of recovering these vehicles or, at worst, keeping Russian propagandists from poking around with cameras.

Unfortunately, it is not easy due to the threat of drones. The pre done concepts of infiltration, recon and so on needs to be changed. Even RU are currently deploying a substantial number of drones. As a result, any harassing force (even if it is just a couple of guys) will be discovered rather fast and will attract the unwanted attention of arty.

That woodline is the first thing drones would check. So, the harassing force must either have substantial anti-drone capabilities or be really stealthy, or not being there at all. These are current rules of the "game".

UKR have limited capabilities, so they decided to save lives and accept propaganda loss.

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for that summary.  And there's a few more:

1.  Prior to the dam being blown up Ukraine was regularly conducting raids into the islands and even left bank of the lower Dnepr.  Russia didn't seem able to do anything about it and it is very likely part of the reason they blew the dam (i.e. they expected even worse things they couldn't stop).

Actually, according to unofficial accounts from RU soldiers, the UKR had a full bridgehead there for at least a few weeks. And RU failed to destroy it. UKR evacuated it due to the flood. So, it appears that when RU panicked, they blew up the dam to flood the bridgehead and protect RU's main escape path to Crimea.

 

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

2.  Partisan activity appears to be on the increase and not just Ukraine, but also Russia proper.

3.  More than a year into Ukraine's Western deep strike capabilities have produced no solution other than to move stuff away and hope for the best.  Even the reports of Russia being able to scramble with GPS signals appears to be either overstated or at least not put into proper context.  We regullarly see big things go boom, including the first general of 2023.

2. Yes, definitely. Even inside RU, they are clearly losing control.

3. Fun fact - agent Murz reported that that GPS scramble was a total lie (he was in the area where it was supposed to be active). It seems, as usual RU solution is a) to lie b) do not talk about hits pretending nothing has happened. 

 

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think in a couple of weeks Ukraine could already claim this counter offensive a minimal success even if it does nothing more than maintain steady progress without committing significant new units into the fight.  Which should be very worrying to the Russian side

According to UKR reports, the RU command is extremely anxious and, as a result, very... i think jumpy is the word (for example that dam explosion).

 

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

How does this "blocking units" thing even work? Like don't the blockers have to be really close to the front as well? Wouldn't they end up fighting themselves and get destroyed?

They're a couple kilometers back. As a result, they are mainly out of reach of normal drones, and as a relatively minor target for larger drones, they are reasonably safe during regular fighting. When the enemy gets closer, they flee in their cars.

It's also possible that it was local hq unit. AFAIR RU commanders have now an unofficial order to shoot retreating soldiers. And they can shoot zeks without any orders.

[Pete Wenman]

The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.

 

 

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Having military forces that are so unreliable that you have to shoot them to keep them in defensive positions is, absolutely, idiotic.  This is what happens when barbarity is emphasized over brilliance.  Why spend all that money having high quality forces when you can just train a few guys to shoot the other guys if they run away?  Idiotic, indeed, but Russia tried and failed to break with historical tradition because it was too hard and expensive.  Plus, Putin didn't think it would come to this because he did such a great job convincing people Russia was invincible.  And we see how that worked out!

Steve

The prevalent RU viewpoint is that cowardice is the primary RU problem. For example, they believe that RU troops' cowardice is to blame for Izum's defeat (and that RU general cowardice is to blame for the withdrawal from Kiev and Kherson).

They follow a simple logic: Untermensch khokhols cannot be better than us; if our forces can stand their ground and fight, Untermensch khokhols would fail. And if RU troops cannot stand their ground, they need to be given additional motivation.

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

2. Russia might be using artillery more in one sector of the south, but around Bakhmut it looks like Ukraine is closing in on two key settlements north and south of the city.  Berkhivka is particularly important because it is the main Russian supply line to the bulge east of Soledar.  Losing this area would be very bad for Russians holding Soledar and Krasna Hora because they are dominating heights to the east of both.

 

AFAIK, UKR are already controlling all important heights. Basically, both Berkhivka and Bakhmut are shooting galleries for UKR arty. I suspect UKR are moving deliberatly slow in order not to use any new forces and also not to spook RU into full retreat. I think UKR are waiting for the main party to start to create a big crisis there as well.

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.

interesting that the author leans in to Russian arty as a key element.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Pete Wenman]

33 minutes ago, JonS said:

interesting that the author leans in to Russian arty as a key element.

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better

P

Edited June 14, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

The Wavell Room is always worth the read. Nothing really new in the article, but it is well laid out.

 

 

So the author doesn't agree with the suggestions here that RU got lucky and their arty was problematic in that particular sector. 

Instead he describes an excellent defensive action in many layers. 

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Nuclear blackmail is all Putin (and China) has and it's a better deterrent than any lame minefield he placed on the Ukrainian soil. So in a way Russia is invincible unless the west calls his bluff and ends the war via massive conventional firepower the likes of which we have never seen. Why didn't the US press an ultimatum on Putin months ago? Here we are watching Ukrainians die because we are afraid of going all in conventionally. 

Because calling a bluff only works when it is a bluff.

[Butschi]

17 hours ago, Grigb said:

End of story. 

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you alone to decide. Please don't be so dismissive.

I urge everyone here to be a little more tolerant of contrary opinions. Even if incorrect it is never wrong to have someone challenge your view. Even more so when, like in the current situation, proof of anything is a rare commodity.

 

[The_Capt]

50 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So the author doesn't agree with the suggestions here that RU got lucky and their arty was problematic in that particular sector. 

Instead he describes an excellent defensive action in many layers. 

 

 

 

Seriously? So the RA Commander reports that his defence was well orchestrated and supported…and we are just going to roll with that as fact?

The Russians were aware a Ukrainian advance was underway.  It was possible to cue artillery fire effectively.  In Romanchuk’s account: ‘artillery units intended for counter-battery combat suppressed enemy artillery in firing positions.  And then they continued to hit the forces and means of the first echelon units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’

Artillery fire starts landing on the Ukrainian armoured infantry company.  The video shows that one unidentified vehicle detonated.  Another two started smoking.  Source: Russian MOD

 

[Butschi]

37 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Because calling a bluff only works when it is a bluff.

This. And usually you only know it was a bluff after calling it.

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously? So the RA Commander reports that his defence was well orchestrated and supported…and we are just going to roll with that as fact?

The Russians were aware a Ukrainian advance was underway.  It was possible to cue artillery fire effectively.  In Romanchuk’s account: ‘artillery units intended for counter-battery combat suppressed enemy artillery in firing positions.  And then they continued to hit the forces and means of the first echelon units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’

Artillery fire starts landing on the Ukrainian armoured infantry company.  The video shows that one unidentified vehicle detonated.  Another two started smoking.  Source: Russian MOD

 

 I don't see any point in them lying particularly about the use of artillery here...The whole battle was very much put forward on all media from the RU side, videos from helos, videos from the ground. They seem pretty eager to expose all the bits of their success. 

And we indeed saw some guns firing. But it was a few seconds long fragment of video. The new info here is that some of their artillery were commited in CB that we couldn't conclude from the videos. Thats interesting. I'm sure you know better if a battery is assigned only CB or it can switch missions on the fly depending on the situation. So if a battery had to do both CB and fire support might be a sign that there werent so many available guns around.

But lets wait for a more detailed report from the UA on the receiving side, if there is any coming. That would be informative.

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

It's curious that commander of muscovite 72nd brigade claims openly it was Wganer that gave coordinates on this (supposed) strike. But I still think Ramzan is trolling.

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't see any point in them lying particularly about the use of artillery here...

Riiiight.  So the Russians do not have a history of lying about things in this war?  I mean why would they lie about this..hmmm, let’s see.  Well to hide their operational shortfalls and weaknesses would be the first big one.  The second would be to over inflate their success for domestic consumption.  A third would be self-interest, the RA commander definitely does not want to highlight any issue he may have had in this fight.  A fourth could be simply…it is the Russian narrative method - the same folks who brought us hundreds of destroyed Abrams and “those warcrimes were crisis actors”.

Look, your point on us not becoming a pro-Ukraine propaganda echo chamber is taken. However, I am not ready to take the RA commanders record of events after it has been pushed through the Russian state media machine as a reliable data point.  Particularly when the visual evidence does not support it.  An interesting thing about the 10th man principle is that the strength of the devils advocate position is a key consideration - and so far it is fairly weak.

Edited June 14, 2023 by The_Capt

[chuckdyke]

For her a Lada is a good deal.

 

[Bearstronaut]

That Russian officer the Wagnerites detained and tortured is claiming that Wagner leaked the location of a prominent Chechen to Ukraine who was subsequently hit with arty. 

 

[DesertFox]

Uups...

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Grigb]

51 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you alone to decide. Please don't be so dismissive.

I urge everyone here to be a little more tolerant of contrary opinions. Even if incorrect it is never wrong to have someone challenge your view. Even more so when, like in the current situation, proof of anything is a rare commodity.

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you to allow ignorant people to spread blatant disinformation. Please don't be so supportive of other people attempts to spread it.

The RU artillery inferiority was proven and confirmed by RU months ago. Nothing to discuss here.

Tank and ATGMs were deployed to compensate for artillery weaknesses. As a result, RU is now having problems with them as well, as agent Murz noted again a few days ago:

Quote

As a result, the "shell famine" was paid for not only by lost time, but also by the loss of a large number of our infantry, the wear of tank barrels that replaced artillery, and the mass consumption of ATGMs as a replacement for artillery (There are also issues with ATGM mass manufacture, and the Soviet reserves are already so old that only one rocket out of every seven operates normally.)

RU arty is weak, Capt is right. Your friend is wrong. You support his lie. I will not allow this lie to spread. End of story.