How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of today's night strike. Kryvyi Rih city. 5 storey residential house, bottle water warehouse, thermal plant were struck. 11 killed (7 of them are warehouse workers), 28 wounded. 

 

Result of AD work. Russian Tu-95 have launched 14 Kh-101/555 missiles (also at least two more probably fell down, not reaching UKR airspace) in two waves (at the night and closer to morning), 4 Shakheds were launched from southern direction. 11 missiles and 1 Shakhed were shot down. 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya could be.  I mean "DO NOT TRY AND MANOUVRE IN A MINEFIELD" is pretty much tattooed on the inside of my skull, and I think the UA just highlighted why in this instance.

In the other videos of the US leopards though, we can clearly see successful mined area breaches - it is why those tanks are staying on the dirt tracks and not in fancy formations.  In fact in this failed one, I think they almost made it, but bad happens...trick is to not make it worse.  In this case we see bad decisions leading to more bad decisions - a Devil's OODA loop.  Now the to the CO in charge these may have all seemed like good decisions at the time, but clearly things spiraled...happens all the time.

Everybody here has bleeped a scenario or twenty in CM, hit quit, and memory holed the experience. The poor B#^&$##@#ds were playing for real but had exactly the same crap go wrong. The enemy hit the most important piece of equipment on the board, your very first decision in response was wrong, and it was all just bleeped. In CM you blame it on the second beer and go to bed. At least most of the crews got out, so somebody only has to write four letters, instead of twenty or thirty. 

Also allow me to add that a BIG part of the failure of this attack is due to NATO supplying Ukraine older kit they wouldn't go to war with. If the vehicles in that attack had APS, they drive right thru and start killing Russians. 

[Artkin]

I also noticed the artillery shelling all around the breached lane. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Also allow me to add that a BIG part of the failure of this attack is due to NATO supplying Ukraine older kit they wouldn't go to war with. If the vehicles in that attack had APS, they drive right thru and start killing Russians. 

This is a solid point.  APS is not a magic force field but putting them on the breaching vehicles in this case makes a whole lotta sense.  

Now as a thought experiment - what happens when each mine is a small kamikaze UGV and the mine field can self re-close?

[cesmonkey]

Putin had a long discussion with war correspondents:
https://tass.com/politics/1631311
Putin holding meeting with Russian war reporters, Kremlin spokesman says

One of the things he is quoted as saying:
https://t.me/SolovievLive/186838

Quote

At my suggestion, we decided to take regular vacations every six months. Someone doubted whether they would return to the front. Almost everyone returns, 99% of the composition.

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

I also noticed the artillery shelling all around the breached lane. 

Do you have vid on this?  I saw no detonations.  I do see a lot of craters but this whole field is a freakin moonscape and a lot of those impact craters are older.  I am not seeing concentrations one would expect for a bunch of clustered vehicles.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[Tenses]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Everybody here has bleeped a scenario or twenty in CM, hit quit, and memory holed the experience. The poor B#^&$##@#ds were playing for real but had exactly the same crap go wrong. The enemy hit the most important piece of equipment on the board, your very first decision in response was wrong, and it was all just bleeped. In CM you blame it on the second beer and go to bed. At least most of the crews got out, so somebody only has to write four letters, instead of twenty or thirty. 

Also allow me to add that a BIG part of the failure of this attack is due to NATO supplying Ukraine older kit they wouldn't go to war with. If the vehicles in that attack had APS, they drive right thru and start killing Russians. 

To go through these minefields reasonably easy I belive UA would require 3 things:

- mine plow on whatever is there available

- APS on everything, which is taking part in the push

- these fancy new Strykers https://warriormaven.com/land/army-strykers-drones-laser-directed-energy-maneuver-short-range-air-defense

From these 3 above only first one was easily obtainable and the third one is not even fielded in relevant numbers in US.

With APS alone, artillery is a major problem but should be enough for these KA-52s, which are the main hurt dealers here.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Tenses
spelling

[sburke]

46 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

.Of course we are not talking about Bakhmut right now, it's a very large defense line that's spanning across all the south. One would expect the defender to not being able to cover all lengths and depths of this, even if it had thousands of tubes. 

Funny cause given the same situation the RA has been unable to do as much in 8 months as the UA has done in a week.

I'd slow down and catch a breath.  You'll be needing to make a lot more excuses for Russian failure over the next weeks and months, no sense in wearing yourself out now.

 

Another possible reason for the lack of fires.

Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 have been prohibited for use in Russia due to their self-detonation.

Source: report of the General Staff of Ukraine

Quote: "The defence industry of the Russian Federation is affected by international sanctions. According to available information, large batches of 122- and 152-mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their self-detonation. In addition, there is a deterioration in the level of providing occupying units with weapons and military equipment."

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[panzermartin]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

Funny cause given the same situation the RA has been unable to do as much in 8 months as the UA has done in a week.

I'd slow down and catch a breath.  You'll be needing to make a lot more excuses for Russian failure over the next weeks and months, no sense in wearing yourself out now.

 

Another possible reason for the lack of fires.

Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff (yahoo.com)

 

If were actually commited in doing so, I would be exhausted by now, after the many fiascos Russians particapated. But long distance cycling taught me some lessons how to maintain my stamina I guess

[Artkin]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Do you have vid on this?  I saw no detonations.  I do see a lot of craters but this whole field is a freakin moonscape and a lot of those impact craters are older.  I am not seeing concentrations one would expect for a bunch of clustered vehicles.

Ah yeah I'm speaking about the craters in the pictures. I haven't seen much footage except the one clip where the bradley dismounts get on the leopard 2a6 for extraction. I found this photo on oryx but I don't think this is the one I remember. It seemed like the craters were concentrated at the tip of the breaching lane.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Artkin

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now as a thought experiment - what happens when each mine is a small kamikaze UGV and the mine field can self re-close?

We have almost seen that when the Ukrainians used artillery delivered mines to refill the lanes on the Russians at Vueheldar. The Russians died. It won't be better because the AI controlling the minefield can set the little monsters to crawling around on their own. On the plus side it also might be able to tell them to line up for collection, so the field isn't nearly as dangerous to the side that laid it, and civilians.

[dan/california]

 

33 minutes ago, sburke said:

Funny cause given the same situation the RA has been unable to do as much in 8 months as the UA has done in a week.

I'd slow down and catch a breath.  You'll be needing to make a lot more excuses for Russian failure over the next weeks and months, no sense in wearing yourself out now.

 

Another possible reason for the lack of fires.

Russia bans use of large quantities of ammunition due to self-detonation – General Staff (yahoo.com)

 

Hopefully the Russian paper work is S&^*(T as usual and they have no idea where these shells are. If one a hundred rounds goes off in the breach the volume of Russian fire is going to decline nicely. 

[panzermartin]

BTW this is one of the videos I was talking about,  from what I can tell it's the same sector and incident, different timing. There is some heavy artillery firing no doubt 

 

[DesertFox]

Waiting for that moment to come...

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Centurian52]

On 6/12/2023 at 5:29 AM, Bulletpoint said:

Very true that they could have been hollering at them for all we know.

It just seems there's only one shot fired - going by the single muzzle flash. I'm not an expert on guns, so I'm not sure if that flash looks genuine, and if there should either be no flashes or two flashes for two guys allegedly shot.

If it's a genuine video, then they were taking a big risk by going out and physically blocking them.

The single muzzle flash isn't a red flag to me. I rarely saw our M16s flash when we went to the range, so I don't expect visible flashes to be very common during daytime. I'm more curious about why it would have flashed that one time then why none of the other shots resulted in a visible flash. Perhaps there is someone who knows more about gun physics? Perhaps there was additional gunk in the barrel that burned up on the first shot?

For my part, except for the obvious question of why there was a drone present to capture the footage in the first place, I'm inclined to think the video is genuine. Why stage it? What message could it be selling to what audience?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Centurian52

[Kraft]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

What Wagner says about the offensive is pretty useless. Their only angle is to put the MoD down and themselfs up, so they'll say any bs as long as its believable and puts the Russian command in a bad light.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

BTW this is one of the videos I was talking about,  from what I can tell it's the same sector and incident, different timing. There is some heavy artillery firing no doubt 

 

First RA arty I have seen yet...and a little tepid, but it is there.  A minefield normally has pre-sighted targets within it and when a breaching is happening the sky falls on top of it.  That looked a lot more like harassing fire...and no PGM (thank god).

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Ah yeah I'm speaking about the craters in the pictures. I haven't seen much footage except the one clip where the bradley dismounts get on the leopard 2a6 for extraction. I found this photo on oryx but I don't think this is the one I remember. It seemed like the craters were concentrated at the tip of the breaching lane.

Lord my BDA course was an age ago.  So craters are really tricky.  The fresh ones - and there are some in that pic - have the gray dirt rings around them but those, as can be seen, vary in intensity.  Stuff like dead grass and water are a give away that those are old shell craters - days to weeks.  Even the faded dirt rings are likely hours-to-days old.  Now there are some fresh strikes on this pic, which match the video but not at the concentrations the craters suggest. More like harassing fire than a heavy concentration to kill a combat team.  Other give away is no DPICM.  Minefields were made for DPICM strikes, it is the fastest way to kill a force concentration of combat vehicles.

And some craters are minestrikes, very hard to tell those apart as they too are basically HE going off at ground level.  The real BDA guys can get out the measuring tapes and figure out the caliber and what direction etc.  But I am not seeing heavy concentrations of RA artillery this sort of operation merits.  Now if we can get some new video showing that, or different reports then we can re-think.

[womble]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now as a thought experiment - what happens when each mine is a small kamikaze UGV and the mine field can self re-close?

Your mine-clearance tank changes to one bristling with chainguns or some other means of nailing an onrushing UGV before it gets close enough to pop its top-attack EFP weapon*. And additional assets lurking to pick off any other moving mines that are replacing the ones chopped down or trying to change the shape of the field. All these robot-choppers would probably need to be largely self-targeting and tied to multi-spectrum sensors, in order to react quickly enough to the developing threat. Even having a human in the loop for "Shoot/no-shoot" discrimination would probably be too detrimental to the OODA loop required to reliably trim such a minefield down.

Minefields in areas with restricted visibility would be a real bear. And they could come a-scampering out of the forests onto the road once the engineer vehicles have passed... The advent of such systems will make area security a real nightmare, as well as complicating the "static" defense picture. The only ameliorating factor is that such complex systems will cost more than a big disc of plastique with a fuse, so won't be as widespread as "conventional" mines can be.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

What Wagner says about the offensive is pretty useless. Their only angle is to put the MoD down and themselfs up, so they'll say any bs as long as its believable and puts the Russian command in a bad light.

I think Prigozhyn is trying to position himself to take over Russia. He is rallying the other PCMs and anticipating a time where the Russian army will be so fragmented and disillusioned that half might join him and the rest will be too weak to stop him.

[The_Capt]

Another good example:

So a moonscape but those craters with the large fresh looking dirt halos are very recent strikes.  This really looks like a single battery mission of maybe 1-2 rounds.  This is really weird for the RA as they are still essentially an artillery army...or at least were.  I would expect to see an iron sky drop on UA forces stuck in a minefield.  Now as has been mentioned could be a lot of reasons this did not happen but I am getting the growing suspicion that something is up with RA artillery.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Now as has been mentioned could be a lot of reasons this did not happen but I am getting the growing suspicion that something is up with RA artillery.

And their artillery is the only thing keeping them in this war...

[acrashb]

16 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I'm gonna on record and say 6.8x51mm is fine for dmr, but is a bad idea and won't happen for your standard infantry rifle or squad mg for a bunch of reasons:

• Barrel life is going to suck, horribly. SIG claims 12k rounds; that's overly optimistic, 2k is more likely
• The round is heavier, so less ammunition carried per soldier
• The round suppresses less well, which makes it unsuitable for general purpose combat, which includes CQB and shooting from vehicles
• Recoil is higher

1) agreed.  Either they have developed some magic smokeless powder that reduces throat erosion (e.g., less abrasive) or some magic barrel material. Unlikely, but then again, I didn't think 80K PSI was possible with safety cartridges.

2)The perennial argument.  Every pound has to come from somewhere.

3) I wasn't aware of that - would you have a link to tests? - but it makes sense.  The larger the bore diameter, the greater the difficulty in suppression (hence effective shotgun suppressors are huge); the higher the muzzle pressure (and with 80K in the chamber I have to believe that the muzzle blast is substantial, although a quickly-burning powder would ameliorate that), the greater the difficulty in suppression.

4) another perennial argument - early advertisements for the M16 showed a guy shooting it from his chin (he must have had a stronger chin than me), full auto.  Not sure how much this matters for semi fire, although it certainly does for full auto.  

Regarding it fully replacing 5.56, from wikipedia "Operational testing of the XM7 rifle, XM250 automatic rifle, XM157 fire control optic platform agnostic unit and the 6.8×51mm ammunition squad weaponry is expected to begin in 2024. However, this does not guarantee actual widespread future issue."