How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Yep

 

 

[billbindc]

 

[panzermartin]

Russian drones are having a field day. Losses must be much higher than the footage we've witnessed. I don't get the complete lack of AA umbrella of UA offensive 

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Russian drones are having a field day. Losses must be much higher than the footage we've witnessed. I don't get the complete lack of AA umbrella of UA offensive 

How do we know what that umbrella looks like from the snapshots we have seen so far?

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Russian drones are having a field day. Losses must be much higher than the footage we've witnessed. I don't get the complete lack of AA umbrella of UA offensive 

Many are probably 2-3 days old due to lag and time before they are edited, and we don't know if UA losses are higher- if they are recorded by drones, Russians always tend to bragg about them. Also note most show the same one spot. We really need to wait more.

 

Meanwhile, strike on Arbatsky may still bear some unexpected fruits.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[Baneman]

26 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Russian drones are having a field day. Losses must be much higher than the footage we've witnessed. I don't get the complete lack of AA umbrella of UA offensive 

Or they are using every drone they have and in a day or two they'll have nothing. We just don't know.

Plus, maybe they've had that kind of footage all along, but now that it's Western kit, it's worth them posting it.

 

Also, remember that all this is Russian footage and everything they post will have at least some element of trying to convince everyone that the offensive is failing.

[FancyCat]

 

[sross112]

Just thinking about the minefield and now the FPV/drone threat and newer western platforms.

I think we can agree that the battlespace is very dangerous to all vehicles whether they are western or Russian. What are the advantages of the western vehicles? I'm no expert, but from the conversations on here it is basically crew survival and the optics/fire control systems. Is there something else?

If the main advantage is better optics/fcs and specifically way better thermals, wouldn't the most advantageous time to use these be at night? I'm assuming the dismounts probably don't have 100% night vision/thermal but one would think that those were provided in some number along with other western kit. It doesn't appear that the invaders have much in their line units and it also appears that the lancets are only used during the day. So this should play to the strength of the UA and at the same time nullify the successful aspects of the RA.

Yes I know that night operations are more difficult than daytime (night patrols in jungle terrain really suck), but if western platforms can identify, engage and destroy targets at longer ranges then you just need to solve for the dismounts. Illumination rounds on the enemy positions isn't perfect, but if you don't have NVGs for everyone it is the age old go to. Any thoughts on why this wouldn't be a better way to employ the new gear?

[Haiduk]

Presidental brigade again appeared on Bakhmut direction. Their Stugna-P hit enemy BMP

 

[Haiduk]

Renewed "Azov" brigade of National Guard entered to combat several days ago.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Baneman said:

Also, remember that all this is Russian footage and everything they post will have at least some element of trying to convince everyone that the offensive is failing.

We can safely assume that both sides have an agenda in what they post or don't post. Opsec must be tremendously important to UA right now that they almost entirely cede the PR battlefield to Russia.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

And in reference to trench video above:  again we see RU soldiers crawling away instead of surrendering when trenches are now filled w UKR rifles.  They are crawling away and getting shot like lame ducks on a pond.  Unbelievable but we see it over & over.

I wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim. I mean, apparently they are not just fanatics or else they wouldn't try to get away in the first place. So are they even more afraid of being captured? Is propaganda telling them the Ukrainians will shoot them or worse if they surrender? I remember there was a returned volunteer on German TV who said he'd witnessed instances of POWs being executed but that's just anecdotic evidence. So, assuming POWs are treated well, wouldn't it pay off to step up/renew the PR campaign we saw last year?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim. I mean, apparently they are not just fanatics or else they wouldn't try to get away in the first place.

Making a hugely dangerous escape attempt rather than surrendering is a form of fanaticism, no? They are probably taught to fight, if not possible to run away, everything but surrendering. They follow that script, so maybe that is just high morale  in action?

[Hapless]

I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Baneman said:

Plus, maybe they've had that kind of footage all along, but now that it's Western kit, it's worth them posting it.

Not likely. But it is likely that many of these strikes are not resulting in total losses. Lancets are typically guided to their target by a spotter drone. If no spotter drone footage is provided showing a burning vehicle the vehicle probably did not burn.

 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Hapless said:

I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.

or just rank stupidity. I'm kind of past the point of wondering about Russian motivations.  They have done so many things beyond the pale of what is considered decent human behavior that I just don't think I can attribute what I'd consider rational behavior to their thought process.

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Making a hugely dangerous escape attempt rather than surrendering is a form of fanaticism, no?

Maybe... but if you are fanatic enough to throw away your life anyway, why not stay and try to take more of the enemy with you? No, I think if you try to get away in such adverse circumstances you are afraid your chances are even smaller if you stay.

[Sojourner]

22 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim.

Just human nature, the basal instinct when confronted with danger of "flight or fight" doesn't include surrender. Couple that with shell shock and they're probably not thinking rationally.

[Butschi]

8 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.

Also quite possible, though in 1941 Red Army soldiers surrendered en masse. That changed only later, in parts due to having learned what happened to those who surrendered.

Too long ago to influence today's culture?

Edited June 10, 2023 by Butschi

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim. I mean, apparently they are not just fanatics or else they wouldn't try to get away in the first place. So are they even more afraid of being captured? Is propaganda telling them the Ukrainians will shoot them or worse if they surrender? I remember there was a returned volunteer on German TV who said he'd witnessed instances of POWs being executed but that's just anecdotic evidence. So, assuming POWs are treated well, wouldn't it pay off to step up/renew the PR campaign we saw last year?

They are terrified of surrendering because they want to go home again someday. They have certainly heard horror stories of what may be happening to those returned in prisoner swaps. 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The only way this makes sense as a trench “assault” tactic is if most trenches are empty or extremely lightly manned.  This looks more akin to trench clean up operations than front line assaults.  I suspect the RA dug a lot more holes than they can actually man if this is the case.

I have read many reports that both sides try to dig more trenches than they can really man, because that gives them some level of ability to conceal what portion of the trench they are in, at least until they have to start shooting.

11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe... but if you are fanatic enough to throw away your life anyway, why not stay and try to take more of the enemy with you? No, I think if you try to get away in such adverse circumstances you are afraid your chances are even smaller if you stay.

Most Russians have ben making bad decisions with awful information their whole lives. The vodka sales numbers re the only proof you need of that. Trying to out run a bullet, when they could have given up, is just the last one.

Edited June 10, 2023 by dan/california

[Splinty]

11 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Just human nature, the basal instinct when confronted with danger of "flight or fight" doesn't include surrender. Couple that with shell shock and they're probably not thinking rationally.

This.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Just human nature, the basal instinct when confronted with danger of "flight or fight" doesn't include surrender.

Impossible, every mammal species has the submission gesture as a relfex.  Ref. a dog's rolling to the back and whining. Looking at iconography of people surrendering in humans it probably involves going on your knees with the back of the head exposed, empty hands in the air or on the ground stretched to the front. It must be instinctive.

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.

Yup, rather that. Plus context of every situation matters a lot. Troops quality, magical drinks, measures of enemy, contact with command, etc.

We also witnessed plenty of last ditch actions by Ukrainians, too.

 

One hungarologist here posted this link about supposed unauthorized prisoner exchange between HUN government and Russian Orthodox Church, that reportedly Orban plans soon. Dozen of Ukrainian prisoners of Hungarian descent should participate in press conference in which they are to confirm Kremlin version of events. Still rumours rather than true, but worth to note it perhaps.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/budut-kritikuvati-ukrayinu-ugorshchina-gotue-1686399594.html

[Butschi]

24 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Just human nature, the basal instinct when confronted with danger of "flight or fight" doesn't include surrender. Couple that with shell shock and they're probably not thinking rationally.

Yes, you are probably right.

11 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Impossible, every mammal species has the submission gesture as a relfex.  Ref. a dog's rolling to the back and whining. Looking at iconography of people surrendering in humans it probably involves going on your knees with the back of the head exposed, empty hands in the air or on the ground stretched to the front. It must be instinctive.

But that only applies to (ritualized) situations where it is not expected to fight to the death, like fighting for a mate or for alpha position in a pack or similar. It does not apply to predator/pray situations that trigger fight or flight reflexes.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Butschi