How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Another video from the Austrian colonel:

 

[Fenris]

Some footage just south of Bakhmut.  Looks like they've just taken a strong point or bunker.

 

[cesmonkey]

If you watch this Russian War Monitor video, the experts on their panel are essentially arguing that only the people in control of the dam could have blown it.  The host doesn't like where this discussion is going and says they need to take a break and change topics.

 

[cesmonkey]

WarGonzo is busy providing updates today. The latest:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13053

Excerpt:
 

Quote

️APU involved in the attack on Zaporozhye up to 120 pieces of equipment️

In summary, they don't think it's over but the Russians have held the Ukrainians back so far.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

For those who just read this above, click on it and read some of the other stuff.  It's comedy gold.  Like him finally realizing that the reason why Ukraine has been stingy with its HIMARS and artillery for the winter is because they were saving up for the counter offensive.  But let's not be too hard on him.  Obviously the Russian MoD didn't think of it either, otherwise it might not have wasted all of its ammo this winter on nothing instead of using it to counter the counter offensive

Steve

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1666405252063535104?t=Qlp2DSj65ua8vKsaqhs_DA&s=19

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

If you watch this Russian War Monitor video, the experts on their panel are essentially arguing that only the people in control of the dam could have blown it.  The host doesn't like where this discussion is going and says they need to take a break and change topics.

 

What is instructive is how the Russians flail in realtime to present a narrative that might hold together that Ukraine is to blame.  The beginning part where the older guy quoted their Kherson governor as saying the results are advantageous to Russia, the response was to remind the panelists that they should be putting together a cohesive narrative, so bringing in evidence that Russia did it should be avoided.  From there it just got funnier.

Again and again we see how Russians avoid certain logic flaws that might cast any blame onto Russian forces.  The whole discussion about Ukraine using drones or divers didn't even mention that Russia has had the dam for a year... wouldn't they have put out nets or some sort of defenses to protect against this sort of thing?  If they did, then how did Ukraine get through them?  Nope, much better to avoid the topic completely.

Nothing new.  This is all pretty standard stuff.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

WarGonzo is busy providing updates today. The latest:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13053

Excerpt:
 

In summary, they don't think it's over but the Russians have held the Ukrainians back so far.

The numbers keep getting bigger, but my hunch is they are more susceptible to "The Telephone Game", where one person speaks something to Person A, Person B speaks it to Person C, and so on until the last person says what Person A supposedly said.  It is likely to be different.  Especially because each person in the Russian game is motivated to lie to the next person.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 7th report combat summary:

Northern Donbas - nothing out of the ordinary, just the usual Ukrainian reports of defeating the usual Russian attacks.

Central Donbas - Ukraine has officially stated it has switched to the offensive around Bakhmut.  Reports are that they've gained ground north and south of the city of a depth of up to 1km.  Usual scorn about Russian gains applies yet again

The overt announcement is likely intended to rattle the Russian units in the area as well as the Russian information network.  First, to make them concerned that if Ukraine could take back more terrain in a couple of weeks while on the defensive than Russia took in months of offensive efforts, what might Ukraine do when on the offensive?  Oh wait... they already know   Second, it might make some Russians jump then gun and think the main offensive is going to be all about Bakhmut.  The more distraction the better.

Southern Donbas - Avdiivka seems to remain active for the Russians.  Ukraine reported 13 attacks rebuffed.  Russian sources make no claims of gains, so instead they said they thwarted a major Ukrainian counter attack and caused many losses.  Yeah, not going to believe that based on their word.

Eastern Zaporizhia line - Russians said they defeated several large Ukrainian attacks in the Novosilka area, but one blogger conceded that a Ukrainian unit advanced 1km deep into Russian lines.

Western Zaporizhia line - as discussed in more detail a page or two ago, Russians report of multiple Ukrainian attacks south of Orikhiv.  Also mentioned was what WarGonzo was probably whining about regarding HIMARS (and Storm Shadow) use.  Multiple reports of multiple explosions in the Tokmak, perhaps as many as 6, and a few others in the southern region.

 

That's probably all the information we're going to get about to day's battles for another day or two.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Almost due north of Tokomak

[Centurian52]

12 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I don't think I will be around when the definitive history of this war is written

What's a definitive history? I don't think such an animal exists.

Good scholars continually reassess what they think they know about a period of history. The process never stops. We don't even have the final draft of the histories of the two world wars of the 20th century yet. We are writing the first draft of the history of the Russo-Ukrainian war at this very moment.

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Almost due north of Tokomak

This is adjacent to Orikhiv, so basically the starting line that was mentioned in my summary above.

Fresh report about this from the Igor Girkin account:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1666677722523860994

One commentator summed it up thusly:

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

We are writing the first draft of the history of the Russo-Ukrainian war at this very moment.

Definitive meaning something other than raw data and analysis not based on raw emotional wounds that recently occurred. The is no definitive anything in the social sciences. The term definitive in history usually means a balanced fact based approach not weighed down by very recent traumatic events. When I am 80 we might get there if this freaking war ever ends. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

UKR tanker of 3rd assault brigade told about first case of APS (likely Arena) usage by Russian tank.

 

Translation:

In short, there was fu..g cool Russian tanky, which can't be hit even with NLAW or Stugna. He fu..g annoyed us with his friend, so it was a matter of honor to kick it ***. 

Tadaaam...

It got Krasnopol at his fu..g mug

These morons prescribed shooting at almost everything. except own artillery shells.  

I think, this guy mistakingly thougt that APS passed own ammunition, though indeed the velocity of falling shell is exceeds reaction threshhold of APS, so they could hit the tank with any artillery ammunition with the same effect.

"Defense Express" wrote in April, Russians hastily test own Arena-M  APS, which got upgrades to resist newest western AT assets, including top-attack and they going to mount it on tanks T-72B3 family with opportunity of mount it in future on T-80/T-90 family 

[Kraft]

Seems the first non fake Leopards were spotted 

[SteelRain]

11 hours ago, DesertFox said:

The orcs really seem to be obsessed with Leopard 2s...

Google translation:

"RUS propaganda, however, are retards, which are not enough.
You know my yesterday's episode about the slaughter of Leopard 2s in Syria? Well, from ISIS videos, Russian brysie bears cut out one of the leons, recolored it and pasted it behind their smashed teciak.
And before that we had the great Zaporozhian John Deer mascara with the Ka-52."

 

 

Haven't seen the video in here, so for the sake of comprehensiveness i present a Russian chopper crew committing war crimes. Maybe John Deer has a line of harvesters called Leopard?
The last strike in the Video is particularly fishy, as the flight time is too short and the boom too big. Looks like they attacked another piece of innocent Ukrainian soil just like the terminator fighting hords of Ukrainian trees some time ago.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1666089176633327620/pu/vid/848x464/IWoTvdGyAzT3uZKq.mp4?tag=12

Edited June 8, 2023 by SteelRain
wrong vid

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, Kraft said:

lacking AMX, though, there has only been a still from a drone as far as Im away, no troops nearby/actual wrecks

As I can recall this video with AMX had a writing "UKR troops in Novodonetske". There wasn't claim these vehicles destroyed or abandoned. Crews can hide in foxholes nearby, until they havn't a task. You can't sit in the tank 24/7

[NamEndedAllen]

"Dear residents of the Ukrainian Crimea! The Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps will soon make a raid of volunteers on the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which is temporarily occupied by the Putin regime,” the message stated, according to the Crimea Partisans Telegram channel, which is dedicated to the liberation of the peninsula. “We, volunteers of free Russia, consider it our duty to help the Crimeans clear the peninsula of the war criminal Putin Please remain calm and assist us as much as possible."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-partisans-threaten-crimean-incursion-next

[Taranis]

Quote

Ukraine attacked the dam with artillery, says Russia before the ICJ
Russia accuses Ukraine in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) of destroying the dam with "massive" artillery strikes  , rejecting Kiev's claims that Moscow is responsible. "The Kiev regime not only launched massive artillery attacks on the dam [...] but also deliberately raised the water level of the Kakhovka reservoir to a critical level ," said Russian diplomat Alexander Shulgin.

With the super mental power of the Holy Spirit 
Source : Le Monde

[Pete Wenman]

 

 

[chuckdyke]

BMP-1 still has its uses. 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

My summary of some more interesting points of the episode:

1. We are now beyond shaping operations or probes. This is the main operation, but the main effort is still unknown. 
   1. We are seeing multiple brigade lever operations in the south
   2. Operations are likely to develop over weeks or even months 
   3. We are seeing some of the main new formations being committed
2. Directions other than the south are likely just being conducted by local formations and so are unlikely to amount to much in the big picture.
3. The "land bridge" connecting Crimea to Russia is not as important as often talked about.  Especially in terms of military operations.
   1. Most forces resupplied directly from Russia or Crimea. There is not a lot of traffic across this "land bridge". 
   2. We must remember there was 2014-2017 when Russia had Ukraine and didn't have the Bridge yet.
4. Long-range fires (storm shadow)
   1. It remains to be seen what is the actual impact of this capability. 
      1. With some time we are going to be getting an answer on how much giving the ATACMS would have had or not had effect.
   2. The problem is not comparable to just giving Ukraine a "longer stick" as often stated.
   3. Russia has done a lot more than just move its stockpiles and CC out of the GMLRS range. Russia is hardening potential targets and decentralization its systems.
   4. Already clear we are not seeing the "HIMARS effect" from last year. Meaning huge stockpile explosions.
   5. The effect of longer-range fires is likely going to be lots of downstream effects. Like Russia being unable to mass fires like it has before.
   6. GLSDB ammo combined with Ukraine reaching Crimea will be interesting
5. Mike is more optimistic than before for Ukrainian success 
   1. Russia again has a chronic manpower problem
      1. The only fix, mobilization seems to be politically off the table. 
   2. Russia suffered big losses in the winter
   3. Ukraine has waited for more equipment, training, and weather and rushed things too soon.
   4. Ukraine has gotten new capabilities as well

[Kraft]

Girkin predicts the offensive will fail.

Quote

- Armed Forces of Ukraine offensive began 5-6 days ago

- Auxiliary strike west of Ugledar in Volnovakha direction

- Attack-demonstrations in Vodiane-Experimental area, tactical attacks in Bakhmut area

- Offensive launched in main direction, Orekhov region towards Melitopol

- Auxiliary attacks have resulted in heavy losses, no significant results

- Small tactical successes in "gray zone" and forward positions

- No change near Donetsk, insignificant advances under Bakhmut

- Enemy persistently attacking main axis, aiming to break through front

- Minor penetrations but no breakthroughs, significant losses

- Russian aviation was ready precisely for such a development of events as a massive night attack

- "Partners" have options to stop attacks or try to push and break through

- Expect long bloody battle, lasting from several days to 2-3 weeks

- Counter-offensive not expected, enemy will have manpower and formation superiority

- RF Armed Forces need broad mobilization and new armies/corps to defeat enemy strategically

Used chatgpt to summarise the wall of text.

Same talking points but aviation effectiveness highlighted.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Kraft

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

BMP-1 still has its uses. 

 

 

Obviously testing a new grenade in the hatch delivery method.  One of the bio-lab projects I bet.