How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Yeah, but then he was dead and we lost the war.

That's cryptic. 

[Artkin]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Takes a two thirds vote to override a veto, it is virtually inconceivable in anything resembling the current congress on anything resembling a major issue.

So if anything any sort of discontent should similarly be pointed toward congress. Correct? 

[BigDog944]

Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, BigDog944 said:

Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?

I agree. This all knowable via even Wiki. 

[Artkin]

A comment referencing Biden's degraded congnitive state even before taking office didn't have to lead to this. The fact is Biden has shown multiple times on national television that he has some sort of issue whether it's just from being too old or from actually having a serious issue. 

The president of the United States should be healthy, sharp, and not so old that we're unsure if they'll survive their term I.e. Trump is what? 84? And people think he can run again? Laugh my *** off.. Doesn't matter if theyre red or blue. 

Edit: 76, but still. Too old. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Artkin

[fry30]

Steve was right about coming back to this thread with 4 new pages over the last day. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by fry30

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Artkin said:

A comment referencing Biden's degraded congnitive state even before taking office didn't have to lead to this. The fact is Biden has shown multiple times on national television that he has some sort of issue whether it's just from being too old or from actually having a serious issue. 

The president of the United States should be healthy, sharp, and not so old that we're unsure if they'll survive their term I.e. Trump is what? 84? And people think he can run again? Laugh my *** off.. Doesn't matter if theyre red or blue. 

Edit: 76, but still. Too old. 

there comes a point where you are beating a dead horse.  Who cares, he is president now during the war and doing a good job. Would I prefer a younger president, sure.  Are the odds I'll get one this week high... nope.  Dark Brandon is rocking the war effort and that is fine with me.

[Artkin]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

there comes a point where you are beating a dead horse.  Who cares, he is president now during the war and doing a good job. Would I prefer a younger president, sure.  Are the odds I'll get one this week high... nope.  Dark Brandon is rocking the war effort and that is fine with me.

I also think he's done a good job, but his powers are limited and it's important to acknowledge this. He's the closest link us Americans have to our government, but don't take it as there's nothing else going on. 

Ukrainian support began under Obama's presidency if I'm not mistaken. The ball has BEEN rolling. 

[kevinkin]

Arkin, you can address this side topic within the PM system. We all love the ins and out of policy making. But let the occasional outside board slips go by the wayside and address the poster with a PM. If they get back to you with silence so be it. 

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, Artkin said:

So if anything any sort of discontent should similarly be pointed toward congress. Correct? 

Jesus, Artkin, can you just f-ing stop?  This discussion is over, you win, yay, you were right, you are smartest, king of the hill.  For those of us trying to catch up w the 5 or more pages since last night it's really annoying to see 50 posts on this pointless 'get the last word over nothing' discussion.

[danfrodo]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

When I looked at this in detail some months ago I became convinced that Ukraine would do one of two things:

1. Make it look like a major crossing is part of the counter offensive, but not really do much with it in fact.  More or less a feint designed to tie down Russian resources that can be cut off by the main effort coming from the north.
2. Time some form of river crossing to coincide with the main effort coming down from the north, both as a distraction and as a real threat of getting in behind Russian forces defending against the main attack.

Either as a distraction or a well timed flank attack, Ukraine doesn't have to do a massive opposed river crossing to have an operational impact on Russia's defenses.  Russia must presume the river is under real threat and act accordingly.

Personally I don't see any reason why Ukraine would want to put too much emphasis on a river crossing.  It's highly prone to failure or, at a minimum, stalling.  This is not something Ukraine should be flirting with.  An offensive coming from existing positions on the left bank is far more certain in terms of outcome.  Posing a threat, real or perceived, of crossing the river enhances the probable main effort.

Steve

Now, this subject is worth discussion.  We all think it's a feint.  But what if UKR puts a force across that starts raiding behind RU?  Like the russian-volunteer force is doing in Belgorod?  Mobile units w high ISR (is right term) that know where they can 'safely' cause trouble but can get out of town before they are outgunned or trapped.  Just gotta keep the retreat lines open for reasonably short time using roadblocks & arty from across the river.  Return to a safe area, either across the river or in a bridgehead around nova kahovka.  Risky but dang that could cause some serious over-reaction.  300 soldiers in HUMMVs could end up getting RU to move 3000.  And arty ambush them along the way.  I don't think I would do this, but dang it would be a wild ride!

[Offshoot]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Whats really interesting is how its the same damage across two different and separate support points...

Putin poles, we could call them...

About 80% support then. Should be enough to carry the Russian public for a while - https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-31/russian-public-support-for-putin-remains-high-despite-concerns-about-ukraine-war-poll

It's from a Russian polling company, but interestingly, Prigozhin appears in the top 10 most trusted Russian officials for the first time. His exposure must be paying off.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Offshoot

[THH149]

Question about the CMBS battle pack, does anyone believe it wouldn't be a commercial success if it came out inn 2023 or 2024? 

Even if it stuck to the oriiginal CMBS timeline and operational framework, just so ppl could make their own scenarios, I would think it would be successful, and any hoopla around it would just drve that. I'm not sure if ppl are offended anymore by exploring actual events in a game setting. 

BTW, not trolling, just exploring what the current mood is since I've been living under a rock for months (I just found out CMCW BOAR is due this year!)

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, THH149 said:

I'm not sure if ppl are offended anymore by exploring actual events in a game setting. 

Put it this way I got rid of BS. Reasons in the area of operations USA No 1 Russia No2 and Ukraine No 3 in ability. I won't hold my breath waiting for BPs which updates reality. I enjoyed 2 or 3 games of BS Ambush on top of the list. Back to WW2 for me I am afraid modern warfare is not enjoyable for me. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

I also think he's done a good job, but his powers are limited and it's important to acknowledge this.

It was acknowledged to the degree it was an accurate/relevant statement.  What is bothering many people here, including me, is that you claimed you don't know much about the topic, people who CLEARLY know more than you responded politely correcting where you were wrong, and you absolutely refuse to listen to any of that and arrive right back to where you started.  If you are so sure you don't know what you are talking about, then why are you so convinced you know more than everybody else?

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Ukrainian support began under Obama's presidency if I'm not mistaken. The ball has BEEN rolling. 

Nobody said anything other that.  However, since you clearly don't understand what the President can do to influence the rolling of the ball, including stopping it completely, you don't understand the powers of the President.  That would be OK if you weren't so disinterested in correcting your ignorance.

Steve

[kevinkin]

A few pages back a post forwarded that the UA offensive might peak in September. I think this is reasonable. First, the material and training for 2023 will be in place and (importantly) the later Fall wet weather will help defend UA gains made in the late summer. This fits with an UA economy of force strategy as things stand. Pretty sure Ukraine will like to engage in attrition dealing with shells and missiles, but the trained human component that delivers firepower is a precious thing to hold close. Very contrary to the way Russia operates.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I will break more laws in my 80's then I ever did in my teens. 

I have a carpenter friend of mine in his 70s who says that he provides a Lifetime Guarantee with his work.  Sounds great until he caveats the statement by saying it's his lifetime.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

A few pages back a post forwarded that the UA offensive might peak in September. I think this is reasonable. First, the material and training for 2023 will be in place and (importantly) the later Fall wet weather will help defend UA gains made in the late summer. This fits with an UA economy of force strategy as things stand. Pretty sure Ukraine will like to engage in attrition dealing with shells and missiles, but the trained human component that delivers firepower is a precious thing to hold close. Very contrary to the way Russia operates.  

Yes, oddly enough the length of time that a nation can sustain a large military campaign without taking a pause has not changed much over the centuries.  3 months seems to be when things start getting dicey.  If you look at the well known campaigns in WW2 most of them showed significant strains before the pause took place.  Weather seems to be the nail in the coffin more than the cause.  Then again, nobody sane starts a campaign right before a change in weather.  Recent example of not paying attention to this?  Look no further than Russia's late February assault on Ukraine

Steve

[kevinkin]

Those old codgers. You got to love them and their tools. But don't go near them - the tools I mean. 

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, THH149 said:

Question about the CMBS battle pack, does anyone believe it wouldn't be a commercial success if it came out inn 2023 or 2024? 

Even if it stuck to the oriiginal CMBS timeline and operational framework, just so ppl could make their own scenarios, I would think it would be successful, and any hoopla around it would just drve that. I'm not sure if ppl are offended anymore by exploring actual events in a game setting. 

BTW, not trolling, just exploring what the current mood is since I've been living under a rock for months (I just found out CMCW BOAR is due this year!)

It's touchy.  Most wargamers are oddly sensitive to this issue.  We're not going to touch CMBS, even within it's established timeline, until this war is done.  As someone who works with military types looking to understand this war right now, while there is time and opportunity, I totally get the interest.

At this point I think the majority of our customers would not be offended by us releasing something for CMBS, but I don't think many would buy it now.  Many customers have said many times that they need emotional distance from the subject matter.  That's not something I think a lot of us have at the moment.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Now, this subject is worth discussion.  We all think it's a feint.  But what if UKR puts a force across that starts raiding behind RU?

This is the beauty of it all... Russia's forces are spread so thin and so routinely under perform (to put it mildly), they really are opening the door for Ukrainian opportunities to cause a lot of trouble with a relatively small force.  The Belgorod incursions are just one of them, the existing activity on the left bank of the Dnepr by Ukrainian forces is another, the pushback around Bakhmut still another.  I think we'll see a couple more to coincide with the counter offensive.

Russia's problem is that even if they fully grasp this there isn't much they can do about it.  They are spread too thin, are too disunified, and clearly have resource shortages.  Which, again, is why Russia should have mobilized a few hundred thousand at the end of the year and not burned through so much of everything in the wasted Winter offensives.  If Russia had done this I guarantee nobody smart would be convinced of Ukraine's coming counter offensive.

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Ukrainian support began under Obama's presidency if I'm not mistaken. The ball has BEEN rolling. 

This was in https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/10/us/politics/joe-biden-ukraine.html 2019, but I think it underscores his wishes to pursue what’s best for Ukraine, termed hawkish, vs others who advocated less hawkish measures towards Russia.

 Consider Wagner getting whittled down, time for Kadyrov soldiers to get the same treatment.

 

[kevinkin]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you look at the well known campaigns in WW2 most of them showed significant strains before the pause took place.

Perhaps the lone example is the brilliant US conduct of the war in the Pacific. After Guadalcanal, there was little let up in offensive operations. Not directly comparable to continental warfare by any means. For a period of 2-3 years the US rested one huge combined arms group, while the other took the war to the enemy. Back and forth. But thinking about it, the UA might just be adopting that operational concept. The weapons involved are different. But the idea of alternation is a key concept in manuver warfare. If I can sharpen my swords faster, move them around faster, strike with better intel, I don't need to expose my human investment to the same extent as my dull, slow, blind enemy. Death by 1000 cuts. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by kevinkin

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I would submit that Wagner has been an active political tool of the Kremlin since the beginning. Utkin was involved with Slavonic Corps which the Kremlin squashed bc it didn’t control it. When Utkin returned to Saint Petersburg, he was charged with setting it up by Putin and within a year or so Wagner was fighting in the Donbas. Prigozhin is the factotum Putin put in who is now trying to leverage it both to carry out his master’s need to balance out the MoD and secure his own position. Hence, of course, Bakhmut.

Doesn't the FSB already balance the MoD

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 1st report has a bit at the top about the Belgorod raids, confirming that this is in fact what they should be called:

Quote

The reported company size elements conducting these operations indicate that these operations in Belgorod Oblast are doctrinally raids. Raids, according to US Army doctrine, are small scale assault operations involving swift entry into hostile territory to secure information, disrupt hostile forces, or destroy installations.[11] Raids end with a planned withdrawal from a narrowly defined target area and do not seek to establish long-term control over territory. The RDK and LRS have not seriously attempted to control territory in Belgorod Oblast, either on June 1 or during their May 22 raid, despite their avowed goal to capture Russian territory.[12]

In think "incursion" sounds better because it evokes an image of crossing a national boundary, whereas a raid can happen anywhere.  But since the definition of "incursion" uses the term raid, I'm OK with ISW's labeling so I'll use "raids" instead

The interesting bit about the reaction to the raids is how the different factions within Russia are messaging based on them.  Girkin, as usual, is making some of the most astute observations.  His position is similar to the one I just made about Russia's mistakes this winter, as well as his usual calls for command economic response, martial law, and various other fascist responses to stress.  The thing that Girkin said in particular that is good to discuss here is:

Quote

...Girkin argued that increased activity within Russia is a result of Russian forces wasting reserves in the fall of 2022, Russian officials failing to transition the economy to a war footing, and the Kremlin’s decision not to introduce martial law.[17] Girkin argued that these failures caused Ukraine to understand Russia’s relative weaknesses and suggested that they emboldened Ukrainian forces to conduct operations within Russia itself.[18] Girkin also argued that the Kremlin will likely respond to the alleged Ukrainian operations within Russia too late and that the Russian public’s support for the Russian leadership will wane by then.

What he is saying here is that Ukraine has pulled a Putin on Putin.  In his view Ukraine has analyzed Putin's military and political limitations, coming to the conclusion that the frontier is mostly devoid of capable forces because Putin can't afford to defend the border.  Everything is in Ukraine.  So Ukraine decided to poke Putin in a way that he can't respond well to, because what the situation really calls for is many thousands of combat capable (even by Russian standards) mobile forces deployed along the front from Belarus to Luhansk.  Which is why Girkin believes whatever Putin does do to counter this raids will be ineffective short term, thus causing Putin loss of credibility.

This is a pretty sound assessment IMHO.  Back when the first raid happened we thought this was a win-win for Ukraine.  If Russia responded by moving capable troops out of Ukraine, that is a win.  If Russia didn't, and suffered humiliation at the hands of a small number of Russian liberation forces, that's also a win.  There really is no way for Putin to come out ahead here.

Steve