How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Tux]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

I understand that, however considering how much of that we see here, why would we expect the UA to be totally without any aspect? it is an unrealistic expectation that then feeds a narrative and an unfair standard.

I’m not sure we are.  People on this thread are probably more comfortable than most in accepting the kind of nuanced reality that you’re pointing out.  However that hasn’t been the narrative so far: the story has been that Wehrmacht markings on AFVs are ‘ironic jokes’ intended to mock the Russians’ labelling them as Nazis.  
 

If you’re right and this is just Ukraine’s due complement of fascists that we’re seeing (every nation has them) then that’s fine but needs to be managed to make sure their influence isn’t blown out of proportion in the minds of more ‘casual’ western viewers (so far it doesn’t seem to be moving the dial so that’s encouraging).  It’s the ‘ironic joke’ option I think people are warning against and pointing out is potentially and needlessly counterproductive.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Tux said:

I’m not sure we are.  People on this thread are probably more comfortable than most in accepting the kind of nuanced reality that you’re pointing out.  However that hasn’t been the narrative so far: the story has been that Wehrmacht markings on AFVs are ‘ironic jokes’ intended to mock the Russians’ labelling them as Nazis.  

Well the Russians who raided Belgorod this week aren't trolling, at least some of them really are fascists.  

A Russian white nationalist says he used American military vehicles for an attack inside Russia this week (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Speaking to the Financial Times, Denis Nikitin (also known as Denis Kapustin), head of the Russian Volunteer Corps, said his group had in its possession a number of US military vehicles, including armored trucks and Humvees. Although the Ukrainian government has denied any role in Monday's raid — carried out in conjunction with another group, the Liberty of Russian Legion, which is seen as more mainstream — one Ukrainian military official told the Times that Kyiv had indeed been "cooperating" with such groups.

Nikitin is described by the Anti-Defamation League as "a Russian neo-Nazi" with ties to Ukraine's far-right Azov movement. After an earlier raid inside Russia, Nikitin, through his fashion brand's Telegram channel, described his enemy as "the multi-racial and imperialistic Putin regime," the Telegraph reported.

 

Looking for a non-fascist Russian element on either side might be a difficult reach.  Not like there is a strong democracy movement there.

on the Ukrainian side there clearly has been some far right involvement however I think the UA has made a concerted effort to rein that in even if it is mainly to make sure folks know who actually is giving orders and organization to the fight.  Haiduk has provided us a history throughout these pages of who is who and what is really going on as the narrative is not simplistic.

Hell Germany has had issues as well.

Germany far right: Elite KSK commando force 'to be partially disbanded' - BBC News

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

One thing not to sleep on is the pervasive cynicism that exists in the Russian milieu. Russians assume there are nefarious motives for people on Prigozhin's level and they assume that they are lying to put the best face on things. That Prigozhin is admitting to 20k+ losses and that Ukraine (rather than NATO) has been turned into a formidable opponent aren't taken at face value. They are taken as the *best possible way to describe what's going on*. In other words, what they are hearing from Western media using VPN is right. 

 

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Prigozhin is talking about revolution, the preponderant power of the Ukrainian state, confirming that tens of thousands of casualties, etc. And he is quite specifically pointing at Russian elites being the cause. There may be an argument that this sort of talk helps Putin on some level but I have yet to see it.

It all goes back to the fact that for the Russians Ukraine isn't even about Ukraine anymore. It is about who gets the gets the blame for this disaster and an express ticket to the gulag, and who gets to keep living in palaces in Moscow. Indeed there are even going to be some empty palaces to redistribute. A whole lot of the second tier players would like one of those palaces. The fact that this ugly little game is wrecking Russia for a generation, or a century, couldn't matter less to the players involved.

[sburke]

Putin's press secretary states that Russia will "liberate" Belarus if its population were to rebel against Lukashenko's regime (yahoo.com)

Russia will intervene if a popular armed uprising begins in Belarus in order to overthrow the regime of self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, said Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary.

Source: Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti

Quote: "This neighbouring country [Belarus − ed.] is our partner, ally and fraternal state. Naturally, the Russian Federation has obligations to ensure the security of Belarus, which we will do in the face of such an obvious threat. "

Details: He also called Poland a "hostile" state for Russia, as it is now allegedly "engulfed in russophobic hysteria".

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, sburke said:

on the Ukrainian side there clearly has been some far right involvement however I think the UA has made a concerted effort to rein that in even if it is mainly to make sure folks know who actually is giving orders and organization to the fight.

Regarding RVC- yes, but it is very specific unit used for special operations within Russia itself, kept on tight leash by SBU simply cause they are Russians (well, mostly).

If you mean rebranding Azov regiment before the war- yes, too. However, from the start of war I don't see nor hear such effort to curb it anywhere on behalf of commanders, instead with influx of volunteers opposite processes seem to happen (different units have different attitudes ofc.). Sorry to say, Ukrainian officers collectivelly simply don't care about fascist/nazi symbolic and views in their ranks at all; I am afraid it is cultural thing, and frankly don't buy prank theory.

Also note there is understandably near-complete media blackout, and from my info phenomenon is likely even more widespread than media shows. Humvees with balkankreuz is just tip of the iceberg. Not that I would cry terribly about it, it's defensive war after all and AFU use any resource they have, but it looks very bad and damage war effort.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

You know this kind of respected, sympathetic retired officer who on family gathering start to play plastic soldiers with kids, telling them stories about wars, armies and history? That is gen. Skrzypczak, and we are the kids.

Fuelling Lukashenko propaganda this way is irresponsible, and not the first time unfortunatelly. It's VIS24, so ofc. all OSINTers hungry for sensations multiply these "news" without actually reading article nor poviding context.

Not worth to bother, trust me.

Info on General Skrzypczak in the English language is a little lacking so I will take your word for it. I did learn that in the past he made opinions public, which got him in trouble. Polish army chief quits amid row (BBC)

Out of curiosity are you against arming the Belarusian opposition in principle, or just don't think it should be said out loud before the hypothetical revolt against Lukashenko even started?

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

26 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

nfo on General Skrzypczak in the English language is a little lacking so I will take your word for it. I did learn that in the passed he he made opinions public, which got him in trouble. Polish army chief quits amid row (BBC)

Out of curiosity are you against arming the Belarusian opposition in principle, or just don't think it should be said out loud before the hypothetical revolt against Lukashenko even started?

He was chief of staff, commander of multinational division in Iraq, known for outside-the-box thinking. He criticized lack of adequate equipment and slopiness on behalf of politicians and MoD, so was forced to retire. Great guy (also known for appearing in Sabaton telediscs ), but regarding this war he is walking example that good line officer does not necessarly mean good analytic...I am sure many military-media commentators from your countries can relate too.

I doubt we have any detailed plans in case of BL insurgency, simply because it is difficult to imagine, Russian troops are there in size and our government does not demonstrated ability to play  this kind of independent foreign power-politics...basically never (mind you, we don't have post-imperial thinking about interventions, like for example France or UK. War is not tool of politics here). Much less they are able to formulate any far-reaching strategies, involving any military presence, partisans nor proxies.

That being said, the gossip was that GROM could help to train some small number of Belarussians from (now known as) Kalinousky regiment, but together with other NATO troops. It is small issue now, compared to scale of western help overall and training of regular AFU units conducted now on NATO soil. You saw the news about F16's already. There could be some very basic training of civilian emigres on shooting ranges, too, but as private enterpraises.

The rest is Luka's schizo propaganda.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Grey_Fox]

7 hours ago, Seminole said:

How do you reconcile it with the utilization and lack of loss in the Kosovo bombing campaign?

They were ordered to stay at high altitude. It was the same in 2003 after some got absolutely shredded by Iraqi air defenses early on in the invasion attempting the low-level missions they were designed to perform.

It's widely acknowledged that the Kosovo aerial campaign abjectly failed to degrade Serb forces in Kosovo, with only a few dozen armoured vehicles damaged or destroyed.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Grey_Fox

[Grey_Fox]

7 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It would approach from below the long and medium range SAM envelope and would have to contest only with the MANPADS and AA guns.  With plenty of flares and IR jamming pods, could work. Could help Ukrainians to use tons of iron bombs and unguided rocket pods which they have in storage.

This is the kind of mission that was attempted in 2003 Iraq, and which led to some A-10s being severely damaged before they were forbidden from low-level missions. They became missile trucks restricted to high altitude, and that's a mission damn near any airframe can perform.

[Grey_Fox]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

The same could be said about the Su-25, yet it still flies on both sides daily combat missions a year+ into the war.

Have you seen the kind of missions they perform? They act as standoff missile trucks and are pretty much incapable of penetrating enemy air defenses.

The fact is that CAS missions are not being performed in Ukraine to any great extent because the environment is far too lethal.

[Tux]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Well the Russians who raided Belgorod this week aren't trolling, at least some of them really are fascists.  

A Russian white nationalist says he used American military vehicles for an attack inside Russia this week (yahoo.com)

Looking for a non-fascist Russian element on either side might be a difficult reach.  Not like there is a strong democracy movement there.

on the Ukrainian side there clearly has been some far right involvement however I think the UA has made a concerted effort to rein that in even if it is mainly to make sure folks know who actually is giving orders and organization to the fight.  Haiduk has provided us a history throughout these pages of who is who and what is really going on as the narrative is not simplistic.

Hell Germany has had issues as well.

Germany far right: Elite KSK commando force 'to be partially disbanded' - BBC News

No argument from me, mate.  Point well made. 

[George MC]

16 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

They were ordered to stay at high altitude. It was the same in 2003 after some got absolutely shredded by Iraqi air defenses early on in the invasion attempting the low-level missions they were designed to perform.

It's widely acknowledged that the Kosovo aerial campaign abjectly failed to degrade Serb forces in Kosovo, with only a few dozen armoured vehicles damaged or destroyed.

One of my mountain bike buddies flew Tornadoes in this ‘war’. He’d a few scary moments being targeted by multiple SAMs.  

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Nazi symbolism is extremely taboo in the west.

Except unhappily now, in the USA. Growing proud displays and embrace of all things Nazi, Hitler by the white supremacy crowd across the country. Swastika flags flown even in some smaller cities (recently here in mine, during a “vandalism” knockout of our electrical utility service.) 
Examples recent - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/box-truck-crashes-into-security-barriers-near-white-house-2023-05-23/  https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/07/texas-mall-shooting-few-details-known

[Joe982]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

clearly you are logged in, you have to be to post.  I also looked and saw it noted you as active in your profile.  You aren't by chance referring to the BF website are you?  That is a totally different login.

Thank you. No, not the website. Today I received 2 emails saying my posts can't be read by anybody till I create an account. I did so some weeks ago.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Eddy said:

Report from Channel $ News in the UK 

They spoke to Ilya Ponomarev (I have no idea who he has - presumably some one big in Freedom of Russia) who stated that there were NO casualties on their side on their jaunt into Belgorod.  

He is the only Russian MP that voted against the annexation of Crimea and, understandably, that meant he wasn't entirely welcomed to remain in Russia.  He has been in exile in Kyiv since 2016 and now has Ukrainian citizenship.  He is viewed with some degree of suspicion by many since he was part of the Putin regime's control apparatus.  Since the war started he has been talking about issues related to Russian resistance to Putin.  Since last year he's been a kinda spokesman for the Russian partisans, which at first seemed to be a PR stunt but is not clearly a real thing.

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

And that's the difference between a professional and a bloke sat on his sofa - I thought it was for obscuring the bridge somehow

Well given the Russian track record…but not what I am thinking.  GPS and inertial guidance will take care of that bridge, even if they try GPS scramble it.  Lasing the bridge via UAS is another option.  Once it gets fully in range the UA are going to blow the living hell out of that bridge (again).

No they likely can read a map as well as we can and are prepping for ferrying operations to support a defence in the Crimea.  The positions they fall back to - already dug, when the UA offensive cracks them like an egg.

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Putin's press secretary states that Russia will "liberate" Belarus if its population were to rebel against Lukashenko's regime (yahoo.com)

Russia will intervene if a popular armed uprising begins in Belarus in order to overthrow the regime of self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, said Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary.

 

The cynic/sarcastic wit in me might ask, "With what, exactly?"

Dave

[Eddy]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

He is the only Russian MP that voted against the annexation of Crimea and, understandably, that meant he wasn't entirely welcomed to remain in Russia.  He has been in exile in Kyiv since 2016 and now has Ukrainian citizenship.  He is viewed with some degree of suspicion by many since he was part of the Putin regime's control apparatus.  Since the war started he has been talking about issues related to Russian resistance to Putin.  Since last year he's been a kinda spokesman for the Russian partisans, which at first seemed to be a PR stunt but is not clearly a real thing.

Steve

Ah ok thanks. So has some credibility about the no casualties then. Well more credibility than the Russian MOD at least!

[Eddy]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

and are prepping for ferrying operations to support a defence in the Crimea

Makes sense now thanks.

Edit: I wonder how well a Harpoon or something like it would work against a ferry? What with all the clutter from the bridge and whatnot. Just musing ....

Edited May 24, 2023 by Eddy

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Eddy said:

Ah ok thanks. So has some credibility about the no casualties then. Well more credibility than the Russian MOD at least!

Cripes man, YOU have more credibility on this issue than the Russian MOD and I don't even know your real name or what you do for a living

Steve

[Pelican Pal]

While I do think the A-10 has developed a cult of personality around it. I'm not sure I would describe the A-10s as a death trap. Looking here and Desert Storm saw 20 A-10 casualties with 6 being lost and 14 being damaged. That is significantly more than any other airframe but as far as I can find only two pilots were actually killed in combat with 3 being captured.

So while there are 20 airframe losses effective pilot losses amount to 25% of that. For any U.S. flown ship that is significant but Ukraine clearly is willing/must suffer higher loss rates. So, assuming they had the logistics tail (a very big assumption), flying a bunch of A-10s wouldn't necessarily be the worst even if airframe losses were high.

 

Edit: The whole argument about Ukraine getting them is effectively moot since well.... they aren't getting any.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Pelican Pal

[Grey_Fox]

8 minutes ago, Pelican Pal said:

While I do think the A-10 has developed a cult of personality around it. I'm not sure I would describe the A-10s as a death trap. Looking here and Desert Storm saw 20 A-10 casualties with 6 being lost and 14 being damaged. That is significantly more than any other airframe but as far as I can find only two pilots were actually killed in combat with 3 being captured.

So while there are 20 airframe losses effective pilot losses amount to 25% of that. For any U.S. flown ship that is significant but Ukraine clearly is willing/must suffer higher loss rates. So, assuming they had the logistics tail (a very big assumption), flying a bunch of A-10s wouldn't necessarily be the worst even if airframe losses were high.

You can't look at raw numbers without looking at how they were used. The A-10 is built around a great big cannon, and when they flew the sort of missions where they could use the cannon they tended to take a lot of damage from air defenses before being restricted to high altitude missions.

Ergo, the airframe can't be used for the mission it is designed to perform - low level CAS in contested airspace. Every time they try it, they take so much damage that they are told to perform safer missions that other airframes would probably be better at.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Grey_Fox

[Centurian52]

21 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Except unhappily now, in the USA

What part of the US? I know for a fact that anyone who went around waving a swastika where I live would be shunned. Maybe people can get away with it in private circles. But definitely not in public.

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The cynic/sarcastic wit in me might ask, "With what, exactly?"

Dave

Oh, they have plenty of second-rate troops at place, ready plans of quick entry with additional force and paramilitary/police/OMON. Belarus takes more important place in Russian strategic view than even Ukraine.

Peskov reacted to these careless articles in PL, btw. Perhaps there is some psychological effort here to deter Russians from placing nukes in Belarus; it would be unwise to place them in possibly unstable territory.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Prigozhin is talking about revolution, the preponderant power of the Ukrainian state, confirming that tens of thousands of casualties, etc. And he is quite specifically pointing at Russian elites being the cause. There may be an argument that this sort of talk helps Putin on some level but I have yet to see it.

It could be that the Hand is being steadily extricated from the Puppet's posterior...

Edited May 24, 2023 by Kinophile