How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

13 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Ah, I suppose if they were all intercepted then that would explain the lack of reported casualties. They must have been intercepted directly above the city in order to give Haiduk the heart attack he posted earlier.

[Beleg85]

Also Prigozhin published another "honorific" stunt with body of fallen volunteer, this time American from Idaho.

Curiously, Prig is constantly posing for internal use as being very respectful to fallen enemies and prisoners- not in International Law sense of course, but in viking-like "I'll crush your skull, but first let me mention I admire your muscles" one. Which is paradoxial given he commands band of robbers, rapist and mercenaries torturing prisoners. But hey, Russian nats love him for this esthetic.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yup. Very good

 

 

Russia will quit when it realizes the pain dial it thought stopped at ten, goes to thirty something. Ukraine and its NATO friends need to make it clear that that dial is on a one way ratchet until the last Russian soldier takes his $&&$& *&$&#^$ home. 

And if they EVER want the economic pain to stop, they have to hand back EVERY person they have kidnapped into Russia.

[Beleg85]

Wolski is trying to sniff what happenned.Translation:

According to sources that still require confirmation, one of the batteries of the Patriot system was slightly hit by shrapnel from a knocked down missile or a low-accuracy shock. Unofficially, there is talk of one or two launchers slightly damaged by shrapnel. No contacts (official and unofficial) confirm any major damage so far, but everyone strongly denies questions about the hit radar or SD. The case is, of course, in development and if the RUS effectively hit some element of the battery, it will be difficult to hide it. I personally doubt it.

 

Anyway: you can see that the Russians have prepared for this action carefully: 3 surveillance drones, 3 S300/S400 rockets are strike densities, 6 Shaheds, 9 Kalibrs, 6 Kinzhals - all attacking simultaneously from different sides. It was the best strike that the Russians can afford, where they even took care of Orlany for reconnaissance of routes for Kalibrs and Shahedes (!) But for the amount (24) of air assault means used, most of which were top for the Russians (Kalibr, Ch-47) and the fact of attacking lonely Patriot battery with a sector radar (+ some SHORAD) the combat effect is not impressive. But the events of last night will go down in the history of Western air defense because it was its toughest test and against a system "ripped" of such a boon as IBCS or air support.

 

As always, take it with solid solid pinch of salt; he has some contacts in both NATO and UA military and similar gossips are flying around in other places as well. Some lanuchers get scratched, but not serious lossess.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Ah, I suppose if they were all intercepted then that would explain the lack of reported casualties. They must have been intercepted directly above the city in order to give Haiduk the heart attack he posted earlier.

City mayor told about losses about 9-00. Most serious accident was in south-western district, likely Kalibr part fell on garage with buses - gareage and four buses burnt. Also large part of missile fell in zoo. Several dozens cars were damaged with fragments. Three civilians got light injuries.

According to updated data AD shot down 6 Kinzhals, 10 ballistic missiles (S-400, Iskander) and 9 Kalibrs (4 of them were shot down over Mykolaiv oblast, 5 in Kyiv oblast and over Kyiv), also two S-300 hit Kostiantynivka town in Donetsk oblast

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Kalibres launched from the sea, first explosions in (over) Mykolaiv. Air raid alarm in Kyiv again. Hm... Will Russians repeat combined strike? Well, I go to sleep. Wish good hunting to our AD. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Jiggathebauce]

A strike like that almost completely negated and only some slight damage to an entity or two of AD ? Still a hell of a good trade. They're getting more patriots right? even better!

[Chibot Mk IX]

6 hours ago, womble said:

How do seaborne missile defense systems like Aegis stack up against Patriot? If they're at least comparable, this wee demonstration has changed the whole threat profile of China's hypersonic shipkillers: they're no more likely to hit a Supercarrier or one of their escorts than a Kindjhal is to hit a Ukrainian target.

They are not comparable. On paper Aegis is supposed to have far better performance. See the pic below. Patriot PAC3 is a terminal phase interceptor with very short window of opportunity to intercept SRBM and MRBM (see the blue dots there?), Patriot's speed is too low to work on an IRBM.

 

The yellow Aegis BMD line in the graphic seems to be representing RIM-161 SM3,  an Exo-atmospheric interceptor.

As you can see , the right end of the yellow line does not extend to the x-axis, because SM3 doesn’t work in Endo-atmospheric. That makes this graphic a little misleading as the SM2 and SM6, two Endo-atmospheric interceptors deal with terminal phase interception also belong to Aegis BMD. They have better performance compared to Patriot PAC3, although they will have trouble to deal with IRBM.

 

Put hypersonic weapon hypothesis, Kh-47 kinzhal is just an air launched Iskander SRBM with a limited maneuverability MaRV . It’s flight profile might be very similar to DF-21D and YJ-21 ASBM, but I guess DF-21D is the hardest to be intercepted due to its terminal speed. There is no way for Patriot PAC3 to intercept a DF-26B, an IRBM with anti-ship roles. That’s when you need SM3 to intercept before the RV from the IRBM dive into the terminal phase.

 

So far there is no indication that the HGV from DF-17 has the anti-ship capability. But due to the HGV’s flight profile, it will make the detection very very hard, and it is also operating on upper edge of the atmosphere so SM3 is useless in the face of this threat. Also due to its flight profile, HGV won’t have a great potential energy to convert into speed at terminal phase, so THAAD and SM6 should be able to intercept that but it is still too fast and maneuver for Patriot PAC3. We don’t have any open source to study on this, this is just my guess

 

Anyway, the key to successfully intercept a ballistic missile is not about the interceptor missile’s performance, its more about early warning, detection and classification.  There are some discussions on this topic in Matrix game forum CMO section, I can see if I can find the discussion.

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, Artkin said:

Since the cold war is kinda coming to a close, we should be looking forward to reducing the amount of taxes we pay. The military budget is out of control. It's been getting significantly larger recently. 

There's still China to worry about. Their days as a potential peer adversary have already been numbered by the one-child policy, and I don't think they'll keep gaining on us for long. But they will likely remain a significant military threat to our interests in the Pacific for a few more decades*.

*Assuming they don't do something stupid, like invading Taiwan, which destroys their military potential faster.

[womble]

22 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

They are not comparable. On paper Aegis is supposed to have far better performance.

And in the bit I've elided, I think you're saying that Aegis can stop whatever "unstoppable" missiles the Chinese can chuck.

And I'll stop asking questions there, cos that's Far East not Ukraine.

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Several issues:

1. How expensive is it to take down a satellite?
2. How bad is a the debris cloud for friendly and enemy satellites?
3. How expensive is it to replace the satellite? How fast can it be replaced?
4. How expensive is it to launch? How fast can we launch?

SpaceX and friends are rapidly solving (3, 4) to the point it will be cheaper to throw up some new birds than a $10+M antisatellite missile. (2) is a huge problem, however.

#2 is indeed the rub. The debris cloud from one satellite shot down isn't too bad. Every reasonable person tracking the amount of debris in low Earth orbit absolutely hates it whenever someone shoots down a satellite. But both the US and China have tested anti-satellite weapons in the past without causing Kessler syndrome. But what happens when you are shooting down dozens of satellites in a high intensity war with space as an actively contested domain? No one wants to let the enemy's satellites observe their movements unimpeded. But if you get too trigger happy with your anti-satellite weapons you could rapidly set off Kessler syndrome. And that's a bad day for everyone.

[billbindc]

55 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

A strike like that almost completely negated and only some slight damage to an entity or two of AD ? Still a hell of a good trade. They're getting more patriots right? even better!

One estimate puts the cost of the strikes last night for Russia at $120,000,000.

[keas66]

So what if the Russians goal at this point is the eventual destruction of a solitary Patriot site - and that alone . Concerted Nightly attacks using up the rest of their top end missiles until they finally "get" one . What exactly does that achieve in the end ?

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

I know. That's exactly what I was saying.

OK. I took the term "knockout blow" literally. I could see China using ground troops to extend down the coast of the South China Sea. But I would not lose sleep over that scenario. Otherwise, amphibious ops would too costly if the US and its allies got in the way. 

[sburke]

29 minutes ago, keas66 said:

So what if the Russians goal at this point is the eventual destruction of a solitary Patriot site - and that alone . Concerted Nightly attacks using up the rest of their top end missiles until they finally "get" one . What exactly does that achieve in the end ?

Putin: "Victory!"   

[Centurian52]

31 minutes ago, keas66 said:

So what if the Russians goal at this point is the eventual destruction of a solitary Patriot site - and that alone . Concerted Nightly attacks using up the rest of their top end missiles until they finally "get" one . What exactly does that achieve in the end ?

For us, quite a lot. For them, not much.

[Centurian52]

Is anyone else getting a 404 error with Oryx?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Is anyone else getting a 404 error with Oryx?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Yes!

 

[Artkin]

6 hours ago, Splinty said:

The Cold War isn't over. It's just switched opponents. China is in the process of becoming the new Cold War focus. 

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

There's still China to worry about. Their days as a potential peer adversary have already been numbered by the one-child policy, and I don't think they'll keep gaining on us for long. But they will likely remain a significant military threat to our interests in the Pacific for a few more decades*.

*Assuming they don't do something stupid, like invading Taiwan, which destroys their military potential faster.

Yes of course, I was speaking about any excess costs we have, like maintaining a substantial MBT fleet seems sort of useless if they can't be effectively deployed and used somewhere. Most of the money already goes to the Navy (+Marines), I wouldn't suggest cutting them or the Air force back.

[Centurian52]

6 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Yes of course, I was speaking about any excess costs we have, like maintaining a substantial MBT fleet seems sort of useless if they can't be effectively deployed and used somewhere. Most of the money already goes to the Navy (+Marines), I wouldn't suggest cutting them or the Air force back.

I could understand wanting to cut the Army back a bit, seeing as we aren't expecting a major land war anytime soon. But the Navy and Air Force will be the two most important branches if things heat up with China. I wouldn't want to cut back too much on the Marines either, seeing as they're likely to be at the forefront of what ground fighting does take place (amphibious warfare is kindof their specialty).

Edit: It's unfortunate that I can't delete my comment. But after re-reading yours I realized that you said you wouldn't suggest cutting the Navy, Marines, or the Air Force back

Edited May 16, 2023 by Centurian52

[MikeyD]

I remember how we were in a cold war with Venzuela just a few years ago.

[Fenris]

Ersatz mortar carriers

 

[Fenris]

As discussed up thread, I was thinking the other day watching the Ukrainians trying to flush the RU men out of the Cyclops bunker they needed molotovs or something similar to set the thing of fire/smoke them out.

Tweet below has example of makeshift drone dropped incendiary grenades being used by another unit.  It's restricted so I'll just post a link.

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1658361918531272704

Edited May 16, 2023 by Fenris

[Fenris]

Any truth to this?  First I've seen of it.

 

[Kinophile]

It was muttered about, so its good to get official confirmation.