How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

 

[Hapless]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

How long has it been since we’ve heard about attacks on the energy infrastructure?

Did they just throw in the towel on that?

I suspect the intent of targeting energy infrastructure was to try and freeze Ukraine to the negotiating table: now that we're past Winter, there's not much point turning the heating off.

Not that it was a fantastic strategy to begin with- chalk up yet another failure for strategic bombing to achieve strategic effects.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

I think that the best way to do this (and to increase available mass of all types) for most countries is by expanding their reserve forces. Personnel costs are one of the major inhibiters to a large standing army, so maybe some sort of system like Finland or a hybrid of it. I think almost all western nations have dropped the conscription/draft, but especially those next to Russia or other belligerents should consider stockpiling equipment and trained reserves.

All across the spectrum should probably do this and not just the army. Pilots, airframes, ships, etc pretty much everything that a country can afford. If it is truly the age of you fight the war with what you have and won't have time to train and produce then some serious consideration is merited. 

This would make for a great research study in the basic economics of the work force. What costs less? A large standing military or a smaller one backed by reserve forces. Reserve forces cost money too. However, allowing them to earn a higher income and benefits in peace time (commercial pilots are a long time example) is not new and a great incentive. I believe this study has been completed by many nations and especially those aligned with the west. It may come down to how quickly a nation needs to respond to a direct threat or meet its obligations with its allies. The US, for better or worse, has decided to have a force that can respond quickly via technology to emerging situations against its interests. The Reserves and National Guard remain key parts of America's defense plans.  A nation like Australia would have more time to "mobilize" and join in with its allies. Israel puts all its youth through basic training, but most go back to the civilian economy. I would be interested in seeing how South Korea and Israel handle the economics. Throw in the 30K US troops stationed in SK into the equation, the math gets even more complex. 

[MikeyD]

The black areas on PzH 2000 turret above appears to be anti-cluster munitions matting, sheets with long rubber spikes on it. I imagine a submunition hitting the soft mat would cushion the impact to the point where the fuse is not triggered. At least that's how I imagine how it works. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by MikeyD

[JonS]

25 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Cool pic

It is. You can even see the round exiting off the top edge of the photo.

If I had to guess, given the platform, I would say that the multiple tracks are repeated occupation of a favoured firing position.

In a nearby hide the gun crew can safely bomb up, eat, maintain the vehicle and sleep while hidden under some trees or a bridge, waiting for the call "fire mission battery!" Then jump into the wagon, download the mission data, race out of the hide, screech to a halt in that paddock just far enough back from those trees that the rounds will clear them, final calcs and swing on to the target, conduct an MRSI then outta there within a couple of minutes, back to the same or a different hide and it's bomb up and nap time again, waiting to do it all again. By the looks of the tracks, they've done that cycle 5 or 6 times already.

Edited May 16, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

20 minutes ago, Hapless said:

chalk up yet another failure for strategic bombing to achieve strategic effects.

I think Steve et. al. are on the correct path. Targeting energy infrastructure has not worked. Ukraine's allies would not let that decide the war. I hate to use another historical example; but Germany stopped going after British airfields and targeted cities. But civilians and the homes could absorb the attacks better than the critical infrastructure at airfields. Maneuver warfare. Distract the enemy while making their attacks not relevant to the war goals overall. It also helps that ER Murrow broadcast the ongoing bomber attacks and fighter battles in defense of a city like London. Sometimes minor things keep the public engaged and the effort moving.   

Edited May 16, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Fu...k!!!! Sh...t!!! Damn!!! What a hell I just heard at 3:00 of night?! 22 loud explosions not far from of us! And about dozen distant boo-boom... Sh...t!!! Reportedly series of Kinzhals on Kyiv, also there were reports about Kalibrs launches. Well, I want to read good news at the morning

Glad that AD caught all of them. I hope that is true.

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians sure do have a different definition of unit cohesion than I do. My definition has 2 soldiers working together to help the 3rd one, not working together to rob him.

Yes, it's such a strange video. Could he be a hated officer?

But even so, why steal his helmet of all things? Not a watch or a wallet or a gold wedding ring?

And by leaving him alive, they risk that he makes it back to friendly lines or gets found by more friendly friendlies, and then there could be hell to pay.

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Glad that AD caught all of them. I hope that is true.

 

 

russians had only a few dozen Kinzhals before 2022, tonight they most likely just threw away 1/3 of all they have left trying to bomb apartment buildings.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Btw... Ahh, what exactly is a SuperCum?

A spunky name for an impotent weapon.

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Btw... Ahh, what exactly is a SuperCum?

Mate… you haven’t lived!

[CAZmaj]

58 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, it's such a strange video. Could he be a hated officer?

But even so, why steal his helmet of all things? Not a watch or a wallet or a gold wedding ring?

And by leaving him alive, they risk that he makes it back to friendly lines or gets found by more friendly friendlies, and then there could be hell to pay.

Perhaps he did not have a watch or a wallet or a gold wedding ring?

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Perhaps he did not have a watch or a wallet or a gold wedding ring?

Could be, but didn't look like they really tried to find out.

[Huba]

Telegraph's article sheds a bit of light on the "attack drones" pledged by the UK:

- these will be of "kamikaze" type
- with range longer than 125 miles
- effect on target similar to an artillery shell
- are specially designed and produced for use by Ukraine
- available by the hundreds and delivered in upcoming months

It basically adds up to a kind of a poor man's cruise missile of sorts. There was no information about the propulsion system, I'd love to see them go with pulse-jet, looks like a perfect application for it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/15/britain-send-ukraine-suicide-drones-twice-the-range-himars/

[Kinophile]

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Kinophile

[Beleg85]

More pics and videos are coming in. Discussion arises if explosions you see on video are effect of fallen debris, downed missiles or aimed hits. Perhaps Gepards are heard in background, which ofc. means rockets get very close.

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Beleg85

[holoween]

 

5 hours ago, MikeyD said:

The black areas on PzH 2000 turret above appears to be anti-cluster munitions matting, sheets with long rubber spikes on it. I imagine a submunition hitting the soft mat would cushion the impact to the point where the fuse is not triggered. At least that's how I imagine how it works. 

AFAIK the rubber spikes disrupt the shaped charges jet and allows the underlying armour to absorb the hit.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Ukraine could lose some Patriot systems when Russia puts its whole weight into it. Would it matter ->NO

There are replacements and single losses are not significant. Also, it is best for Ukraine if all of Russia's deep-strike capability is going toward dead-end inefficient SEAD operations.

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine could lose some Patriot systems when Russia puts its whole weight into it. Would it matter ->NO

There are replacements and single losses are not significant. Also, it is best for Ukraine if all of Russia's deep-strike capability is going toward dead-end inefficient SEAD operations.

Remember when everyone was all a twitter about Russian escalation dominance?  Interestingly, and something I never considered, denial is a form of escalation.  In hindsight it is obvious, denial compresses an opponent options spaces - very effectively as it turns out.  It also neutralizes an opponents ability to escalate.

Russia earned this one with all of its terror missile attacks, however in the end the West held the escalation high ground…and still does.  A whole lot of this war has been us relearning that we are indeed powerful, very powerful as it turns out.  We kept seeing the nightmares in Russia but I think we are slowly realizing that we are the nightmares.  (Nod to Chuck Norris I believe).

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Remember when everyone was all a twitter about Russian escalation dominance?  Interestingly, and something I never considered, denial is a form of escalation.  In hindsight it is obvious, denial compresses an opponent options spaces - very effectively as it turns out.  It also neutralizes an opponents ability to escalate.

Russia earned this one with all of its terror missile attacks, however in the end the West held the escalation high ground…and still does.  A whole lot of this war has been us relearning that we are indeed powerful, very powerful as it turns out.  We kept seeing the nightmares in Russia but I think we are slowly realizing that we are the nightmares.  (Nod to Chuck Norris I believe).

The implications of Patriots being able to handle a complex, dense attack of pretty much everything Russia has contains strategic implications that go far beyond the war in Ukraine. Chinese calculations about Taiwan were just revised negatively yet again. 

[womble]

How do seaborne missile defense systems like Aegis stack up against Patriot? If they're at least comparable, this wee demonstration has changed the whole threat profile of China's hypersonic shipkillers: they're no more likely to hit a Supercarrier or one of their escorts than a Kindjhal is to hit a Ukrainian target.

[DesertFox]

ROFL!

 

 

[Maquisard manqué]

53 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The implications of Patriots being able to handle a complex, dense attack of pretty much everything Russia has contains strategic implications that go far beyond the war in Ukraine. Chinese calculations about Taiwan were just revised negatively yet again. 

Yes and no. Where sufficient AD is deployed, it seems to work resoundingly well (if everything was indeed intercepted over Kiev), but other cities were also hit and there were fatalities, which suggests that either there isn’t the same coverage everywhere, or that it didn’t work as well in places other than Kiev.

Can Ukraine/NATO afford to saturate Ukraine with AD to the level it has in Kiev? If not, I imagine the Russians will switch to a wider strategy of secondary or tertiary cities. Less effective in some ways (propaganda not as good), but still likely to cause damage and loss of life - which seems to be all the Russian state gets out of bed for.

Even overmatched systems are still lethal and effective if used intelligently/ruthlessly.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, womble said:

How do seaborne missile defense systems like Aegis stack up against Patriot? If they're at least comparable, this wee demonstration has changed the whole threat profile of China's hypersonic shipkillers: they're no more likely to hit a Supercarrier or one of their escorts than a Kindjhal is to hit a Ukrainian target.

I suspect it's an easier problem in many ways at sea.  At least the outer picket of defense doesn't have the complication of all sorts of buildings and terrain as it approaches horizon pointing.  You have to worry about friendly ships, but there will be fewer of them than stuff you have to worry about in an urban environment and you can always know where they all are.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

8 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

This would be a great result if it's correct.

Btw... Ahh, what exactly is a SuperCum?

Jeez, just use Google. I am sure you get quite the education. Just... you know... maybe don't try it at work.

 

Real, boring, answer: Apparently there's a recce drone that goes by the name of "Supercam". Though the Supercum question is now all over Twitter and I love it.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma
Orlan=/=Supercam