How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

On 5/14/2023 at 9:23 AM, DesertFox said:

Correct! The main gun is the NATO 105-L7 as in the Leopard 1s or M60s. More details here:

M-55S - The Upgraded T-55 Sent to Ukraine - Tank Historia

Ok, I get the impression that they're probably about on par with the Leopard 1A5 then. Paper thin armor by any modern standard. 105mm gun capable of firing all NATO standard ammunition in that caliber. Good digital fire control system.

The one thing it's missing is thermal sights. If they just had thermals sights they could probably hold their own alongside any modern infantry support vehicle.

[Artkin]

A June 22nd assault would be the ultimate FU to the Russians. But as history has proven time and time again, this is too late to drive to Moscow, or Stalingrad, or the Caucuses successfully. 

[NamEndedAllen]

This just cannot be good. Apologies if this confirmation was already posted and it missed it.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen

New satellite imagery of an ammunition and explosives storage site just to the west of the Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky shows that most of the installation has been wiped off the map. Yesterday, videos emerged showing an absolutely gigantic fireball rising over the outskirts of Khmelnitsky. The destruction was clearly caused by a series of huge secondary explosions. Now we know for certain that it was indeed this site.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems there is going to be >100 AMX-10RC in Ukraine

UK promised "hundreds of AA missiles" (I'd love these to be SkySabre, but probably more Starstreak/ Martlet) and "hundred of 200+ km attack drones".
In Italy there was talk about air defence, meaning probably the SAMP/T, as the rest of their AA equipment is blocked by the perfidious Swiss. BTW, it was announced today that the first battery is already in Ukraine, and in my book takes the place of most likely culprit of the Saturday massacre of VVS near Kyiv. There are also rumours about numerous Centauros being refurbished in the same plant that fixed M109Ls.
The huge package from Germany was already discussed.

But from all that Zelensky secured during his trip, the most important IMO are declarations of pilot training officially starting in UK (in summer) and in France (immediately!). Funnily, neither of these countries operates F-16, but at least in the UK the training will be "elementary" meaning either completely fresh pilots, or perhaps experienced ones re-training on NATO avionics on Hawks, before being assigned to actual combat aircraft. There is no info from FR at this point, but their training might be more directly focused on Mirage, that FR has dozens to spare.
What it means is that, come next year, or even earlier, we will see the new UA airforce entering the fray. 

Sources re. the aircraft training:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-welcomes-president-zelenskyy-to-the-uk-ahead-of-anticipated-ukrainian-military-surge
https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/1658175594004193281
 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

This just cannot be good. Apologies if this confirmation was already posted and it missed it.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen

New satellite imagery of an ammunition and explosives storage site just to the west of the Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky shows that most of the installation has been wiped off the map. Yesterday, videos emerged showing an absolutely gigantic fireball rising over the outskirts of Khmelnitsky. The destruction was clearly caused by a series of huge secondary explosions. Now we know for certain that it was indeed this site.

smells like a Russian strike made on some old ammo that is no longer in usable.

No nation would have such concentrated stockpiles while in Ukraine's position in terms of the deep strike threat from the enemy.

Also, Russia would have already targetted this earlier...

[Haiduk]

How symbolically... On 9th of May the body of Russian pilot was washed up on the shore of Kyivan reservoir. Сrayfishes and catfishes eaten his head and hands, but the lable on the flight suit allowed to identify him - senior lieutenant Ruslan Mankishev. HIs Mi-24P was shot down over reservoir on 24th Feb 2022 during flight to Hostomel.  Helicopter with the body of second crew memeber was lifted up recently, but this guy swam too long. Well, now his family has a chance to get new white "Lada"

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Centurian52]

On 5/14/2023 at 9:47 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Very long video that likely has interesting pieces to watch.  I've not seen any of it yet:

 

That was very interesting. The tank flattening out the vegetation is not something we can currently do in CM, and since most of my practical knowledge of warfare comes from CM it's not something I had ever thought to do with a tank before. But it makes perfect sense. That's part of why it's so valuable to watch this sort of footage.

Another thing that's valuable about this footage is that it not only shows us some of what we can't simulate, it also confirms some of the lessons we've learned based on what we can simulate. The YPRs dropping off the infantry right on top of the objective they wanted to storm is a tactic I know I've used on more than one occasion in CM, and it's always interesting to see tactics that I've used in a game play out in real life. It goes a long way to confirm that some of what I've learned from CM is applicable to real warfare.

[Hister]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

How symbolically... On 9th of May the body of Russian pilot was washed up on the shore of Kyivan reservoir. Сrayfishes and catfishes eaten his head and hands, but the lable on the flight suit allowed to identify him - senior lieutenant Ruslan Mankishev. HIs Mi-24P was shot down over reservoir on 24th Feb 2022 during flight to Hostomel.  Helicopter with teh body of second crew memeber was lifted up recently, but this guy swam too long. Well, now his family has a chance to get new white "Lada"

 

What? A body with only exposed parts being eaten away but otherwise fully fleshed up after more then a year of being in a water? How is that possible?

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Grigb great work,  thank you.  By your analysis a successful UKR shove SE, from W of Soledar,  and down to Klynova would cinch off Bakhmut.

The precursor to this would need to be the capture/isolation of Krasna Hora. 

Sorry, just to be clear this is not my analysis but Prig/Wagnerite. I just drew it on the map. I do have my opinion and will write it as soon as I can. 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Hister said:

What? A body with only exposed parts being eaten away but otherwise fully fleshed up after more then a year of being in a water? How is that possible?

According to reports the body was found in a state of decay. There were more close photos, but I don't wan't post it here. The depth of reservoir in deepest part is about 12-15 meters, so temprerature likely not enough warm that the body decomposed completely for 1,5 year

Edited May 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So MAYBE the Belarus crisis is not going to happen in the immediate couple of months, maybe not.  The cause of the infection is as important as how bad the damage from the infection.  Recently had some experience with a family member about this.  Near death from an infection, got the infection under control, found the cause and "palliative care" was on the table.  Fortunately, exploratory surgery showed the cause hadn't gone over the cliff yet and corrective surgery was an option.

My point here is that Luka is going to die at some point and it still could be quite soon.  Whenever it happens the scenarios we've been discussing still apply.  The regime transition could be very messy and bad for Putin.

Steve

Being dictator is hard 24h job, one cannot even get mortally sick without people demanding something. He looks like dried potato taken out of winter storage, but is still eatable.

 

[Haiduk]

"You won't need it anymore, bro!"

Russians were bombed by the drone and one soldier was wounded. Two his comrardes just looted him, taking away his helmet and fled.

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Classified cadres! UKR combat geese from secret US biolabs in action!

 

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

That was very interesting. The tank flattening out the vegetation is not something we can currently do in CM, and since most of my practical knowledge of warfare comes from CM it's not something I had ever thought to do with a tank before. But it makes perfect sense. That's part of why it's so valuable to watch this sort of footage.

This has always been a bone of contention as it really depends on the type of vegetation, the soil, and what is smashing into it.  It would seem the types of "woody vegetation" the tanks are smashing through are fairly young growth with shallow roots in loose soil.  Pretty idea stuff to smash a tank into.

38 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Another thing that's valuable about this footage is that it not only shows us some of what we can't simulate, it also confirms some of the lessons we've learned based on what we can simulate. The YPRs dropping off the infantry right on top of the objective they wanted to storm is a tactic I know I've used on more than one occasion in CM, and it's always interesting to see tactics that I've used in a game play out in real life. It goes a long way to confirm that some of what I've learned from CM is applicable to real warfare.

Yup, and we've seen the downsides of this sort of tactic in this war too.  The YPRs that were hit by ATGMs (videos posted last week) show that the "final approach" had better be at a time when the enemy is suppressed or there's a decent chance of a catastrophe before arrival.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"You won't need it anymore, bro!"

Russians were bombed by the drone and one soldier was wounded. Two his comrardes just looted him, taking away his helmet and fled.

 

Russians sure do have a different definition of unit cohesion than I do. My definition has 2 soldiers working together to help the 3rd one, not working together to rob him.

Steve

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for returning to post this!  The most thorough analysis of what could come from a continued Ukrainian counter offensive.  The big question is if they intend to push that hard here or just tie up Russian forces for a while until the main counter attack starts.  Could be easier going in the Bakhmut area if Russia decides to dilute forces in the area in order to shore up other sectors.

Steve

According to agent Murz, the UKR is pushing at Bakhmut and other locations (such as Avdiivka) to pressure the RU command to commit reserves to the existing front line. The present RU front line is not adequately prepared or effective in defense. The intention of UKR command appears to be to kill RU reserves.

So, it does not appear like UKR will press Bakhmut that hard or deep for the time being.

Regarding what RU have right now there:

[UKR Mashovets post]

Quote

The reserves of the enemy's Army Grouping "South" (which conducts combat operations in the Bakhmut and Avdeevsky directions) are as follows:
1. In the Bakhmut direction the enemy can commit to fight within a day (24 hours from the moment of making the appropriate decision) - 2 motorized infantry battalions from the motorized rifle brigade

During the next 24 hours:
- up to a 1 motorized rifle regiment of territorial troops (two battalion composition).
- up to 4 separate rifle battalions for mobilization reserve

Staffing level:
- Men – up to 65-70%
- the main AFV - up to 30-40%

2. Avdiivka direction, within the first 24 hours of making the appropriate decision - up to 1 separate motorized rifle brigade (3-battalion composition)

During the next 24 hours:
- up to 2 motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops (one with 3 battalions, the other with 2)
- up to 6 separate rifle battalions 

Staffing level:
- Men – up to 75-80%
- the main AFV – up to 55-60%

In total, the AG "South" so-called "first stage" [of reserves] officially consist of the following:
- motorized rifle regiment of territorial troops - 3
- separate rifle regiments - 1
- reserve motorized rifle battalions – 7

Specifically PMCs:
- assault groups (AS) – 12
- up to 4 of them are "on restoration" (in fact, they are incapacitated, losses amount to more than 60%)

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another excellent psyops video from Ukraine's MoD:

Steve

[sburke]

Putin’s Reportedly Had to Ban His Top Officials from Quitting as Ukraine War Falters (yahoo.com)

 

When Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine last year, he dragged millions of his countrymen into a conflict in which they had no say. Now a report suggests that high-ranking officials within his administration have been banned from resigning from their jobs while the war rages on.

The unofficial decree was reported by independent Russian outlet iStories on Monday citing four sources who anonymously disclosed details of the ban. One former FSB officer said they were aware of “at least two cases” where governors made failed attempts to leave their posts in which they were not just blocked from doing so, but the threat of “criminal cases” was also hinted.

The outlet also spoke with another source described as an acquaintance of an official within the Kremlin’s Presidential Administration who had heard about the ban. “There are many who want [to leave] after the start of the war,” the source said. “If everyone leaves, control will be lost.” The report described a view in the administration which regarded the desire to leave as flat-out betrayal, with civil servants instead being ordered to demonstrate “unity” by remaining in post.

Officers within the FSB—Russia’s main security agency—have previously spoken out about being unable to quit in the wake of Putin’s military mobilization. A decree from the Russian president meant that servicemen under contract could not leave their roles even after their contracts had expired. But the draconian rules were not previously known to also apply to civil servants.

[Haiduk]

Trench invention - 40 mm mortar %). Soldiers on video say they have enough defective 40 mm grenades, which can't be shot, so they developed special rifled sleeve to fire it from the barrel of 60 mm mortar. In the second video soldiers expain that the sleeve doesn't fly out during the shot, but remains inside mortar. It's unclear how precise this shooting, but they say the range is about 1 km. So, at least good thing for harrasment fire and . 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to agent Murz, the UKR is pushing at Bakhmut and other locations (such as Avdiivka) to pressure the RU command to commit reserves to the existing front line. The present RU front line is not adequately prepared or effective in defense. The intention of UKR command appears to be to kill RU reserves.

So, it does not appear like UKR will press Bakhmut that hard or deep for the time being.

Agreed.  With the immediate pressure off of Bakhmut's flanks, getting Russia committing more reserves is more important than taking back territory at this time.

Funny note... is saw a bunch of pro-Russian social media users on Twitter saying that it is Russia that is sucking in Ukrainian reserves and that it has ALREADY achieved it's mission of forestalling the counter offensive.  Pretty funny stuff.

 

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding what RU have right now there:

[UKR Mashovets post]

 

That is for a sector with about 100km of frontage, according to intel on how Russia has divided up the front.

Breaking this down somewhat roughly, the estimates show 3 DLPR Regiments (I think some DPR are in this sector), 1 regular Russian Regiment, and the equivalent of 2 Russian regiments of "reserve battalions" (BARS?).  I'll leave out the PMCs for a sec.

This is roughly 8000 effective strength, or 80 men per KM.  That's not a lot, obviously.  Making matters worse is the 3 DLPR Regiments seem to be disinterested in fighting at the moment.  At least not rushing forward doing active counter attacks.  Which means Russia has maybe 4000 available in reality.  Given Russia's loss rates lately this could be gone in as little as 8 days.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Trench invention - 40 mm mortar %). Soldiers on video say they have enough defective 40 mm grenades, which can't be shot, so they developed special rifled sleeve to fire it from the barrel of 60 mm mortar. In the second video soldiers expain that the sleeve doesn't fly out during the shot, but remains inside mortar. It's unclear how precise this shooting, but they say the range is about 1 km. So, at least good thing for harrasment fire and . 

 

THAT is clever stuff!  The machinist in me applauds their creativity.

Steve

[billbindc]

What I would describe as a very realistic description of the prospects for Belarus: 

https://jamestown.org/program/belarusian-opposition-preaching-gloom-amid-growing-distress/

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

exact dividing line between seasons is completely arbitrary

https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/seasons/en/

Off topic but interesting. 

[Eddy]

Hmm ... longer range missiles from the French. I wonder if this is more SCALP or whether it also includes the the runway denial Apache (from which Storm Shadow/Scalp is derived). Smaller range than Storm Shadow/SCALP but would still open up a new bunch of problems for the Russians.

[Jiggathebauce]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another excellent psyops video from Ukraine's MoD:

Steve

99 problems but Mobiks ain't one