How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Azov giving a little more details on what they claim was a very large and successful counter attack in Bakhmut.  Hopefully this is a sign that Russia's forces in and around Bakhmut are so burnt out that they can be routed when counter attacked in force:

Maps showing the section of front that the Russians just lost (sorry, it has a dumb Twitter restriction on it):

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1656059823060926464

 

Wagner HQ supposedly hit by HIMARS yesterday:

Looks like Russian resistance fighters burned up an SU-24 that was awaiting either repairs or deployment:

 

Steve

[alison]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in Politico about the US dismantling a very long running Russian malware capability that stole sensitive information private and public entities in over 50 countries.  This has been going on for two decades!

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/09/doj-dismantles-russian-spy-tool-00095959

If anyone is feeling disappointed about the lack of technical details in the linked Politico article, here is a PDF that goes into greater detail: https://media.defense.gov/2023/May/09/2003218554/-1/-1/0/JOINT_CSA_HUNTING_RU_INTEL_SNAKE_MALWARE_20230509.PDF

[_Morpheus_]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

He blames units of 72nd motor-rifle brigade of 3rd Army Corps that they abandoned positions. Likely this was in Sako i Vancetti village area, about 14 km north from Bakhmut, where presumably UKR troops had advance 1-2 days ago,  

I think AZOV 3rd assault brigade participate in the counter attack, there is a video from them:

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

"The office of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, our country’s president, is in charge of the ultimate decision regarding the dates and directions [of the counter-offensive]. When people start talking, even people from respectable Western institutions, trust me: there are no people who know the full extent of our plans. Because the final plans have not yet been approved.

We have several options [for the counteroffensive]. They are all being considered. Decisions will be made depending on the circumstances that prevail at any given moment. There’s no need to expect, or not expect, anything.

We have already proven that we are an invincible nation, and we will definitely [win]. In no small part, thanks to the help of our partners.

-- Oleksii Danilov

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/secretary-national-security-council-zelenskyy-171659645.html

[Battlefront.com]

Closeup video put out by Russia showing off it's latest version of the Cope Cage, this time with ERA:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1654826824864546822

Steve

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Closeup video put out by Russia showing off it's latest version of the Cope Cage, this time with ERA:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1654826824864546822

Steve

That's gonna leave a mark if something sets it off while they're unbuttoned...

[Beleg85]

Clip from 92nd brig. drone team. Russian from decimated squad gave up, giving signs he want to surrender to a drone. One drone keep him in the crosshairs, while other was send from Ukrainian lines with instructions to surrender. Fortunate muscovite received them, and after displaying signs of some hesitation (he would be killed for surrender- so Ukrainians drop granade nearby outside of the video to help him decide) followed "guard drone" toward Ukrainians. Pretty interesting, apparently protracted situation, showing possibilties of drone-human interaction.

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Clip from 92nd brig. drone team. Russian from decimated squad gave up, giving signs he want to surrender to a drone. One drone keep him in the crosshairs, while other was send from Ukrainian lines with instructions to surrender. Fortunate muscovite received them, and after displaying signs of some hesitation (he would be killed for surrender- so Ukrainians drop granade nearby outside of the video to help him decide) followed "guard drone" toward Ukrainians. Pretty interesting, apparently protracted situation, showing possibilties of drone-human interaction.

 

Looks to me like his squad was decimated by two fresh PGM strikes on their position - you can see them in the first trench he was in.

[TheVulture]

Interesting GPF article on Russia's economy through the lens of sanctions and the difficulties in its attempts to use BRICS and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) to create alternative blocs outside of US influence: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/can-russia-gang-up-on-the-west/ (although I think the link might be paywalled)

Quote

Can Russia Gang Up on the West? Groupings such as the BRICS and the SCO have been harmed by the sanctions regime too. By: Antonia Colibasanu   In February 2022, the global economy started what became an unprecedented event: The West, led by the United States, severed trade, financial and personal ties with Russia, a country that spans 11 time zones, sits at the heart of Eurasia and is essential to global commerce as a supplier of key commodities. Before that, similar punitive measures tended to target countries on the edge of the global economy like Venezuela and Iran. Unsurprisingly, global growth forecasts for 2023 have been revised downward. The International Monetary Fund reported in April that the baseline prediction for growth is 3.4 percent in 2022, 2.8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024. But it also warned that in the event of increased financial sector stress, global growth would fall to around 2.5 percent in 2023, with advanced economies growing at or below 1 percent. Meanwhile, the IMF predicted that Russia's economy will grow 0.7 percent more quickly than Germany's and the United Kingdom's, both of which are forecast to enter a recession (and experience negative growth), and will keep pace with growth in France and Italy in 2023. In other words, Russia's economic growth is expected to compete with, if not outperform, four of the G-7 countries leading the sanctions charge. (click to enlarge) The West believed that by impounding Russian foreign exchange reserves held abroad, imposing harsh restrictions on Russian banks and individuals, and severing trade in technology and raw materials, the Russian economy would collapse and force President Vladimir Putin to abandon the war in Ukraine. Less than two months after the invasion, the IMF forecast that Russia’s economy would contract by 8.5 percent in 2022 and by 2.3 percent this year. Since then, however, the fund has revised its estimates upward by a cumulative 9.4 percentage points. Sure, at least some of the IMF forecasting comes from Russian figures that are arguably inflated – but the Russian economy nonetheless resisted sanctions during the first months of 2022. In fact, Russia was prepared for the sanctions. It had been under them since it took Crimea in 2014, and the West had advertised its intentions well ahead of the invasion. The West failed to recognize as much, and it overestimated its power to dominate the most critical parts of the global economy. The West was also inexplicably slow to realize that, when cornered, authoritarian governments deprioritize rational economic considerations and spur Western conventions. Meanwhile, China, India, Malaysia and Singapore have begun to import more Russian oil. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Armenia and other former Soviet republics have acted as middlemen for Western exporters and Russian importers on anything from cell phones to machine tools. Thus developed a network of parallel imports and informal shipping fleets. Legal loopholes, opportunistic business activity and a lack of collaboration by emerging economies have conspired to blunt the impact of sanctions. Even so, it would be a mistake to say the sanctions have failed. There are clear indications that they are affecting the Russian economy, so from the West’s perspective, they are better than allowing Russia to support the war with a limitless budget funded by export payments. Indeed, Moscow has already been forced to sell commodities at lower prices and to pay a premium for technology (due to the price of avoiding legal obstacles and the increased cost of transportation, not to mention the investment needed to create new trade corridors). This year, Russia's federal budget is under strain from military and security spending, which accounts for a record-high one-third of total expenditure, and from mandatory import substitutes. The Kremlin can afford to cover these expenditures for now, but any external shock could severely undermine Russian finances. To mitigate these risks, Russian authorities are squeezing the economy for more revenue. In April, Putin changed the way the country taxes oil businesses by basing levies on the Brent crude worldwide benchmark price minus a predetermined discount, rather than the price of Urals, the country's principal export crude, which has been trading at a lower price than Brent in recent months. Moscow expects to net 600 billion rubles ($8 billion) in revenue from the levies. The government also announced last month that the publication of statistics on oil, gas and condensate production will be suspended until April 2024, indicating further trouble may affect the industry. It’s unclear how the departure of Western companies has affected energy production, but the Kremlin isn’t taking any risks: It’s asking all Western firms leaving the country to pay a contribution to the federal budget equal to at least 10 percent of the market value of their assets (on top of a 50 percent discount on property values). The moves are clearly meant to offset the losses in the hydrocarbons sector, the revenue from which declined by 45 percent year on year in the first four months of 2023 because of sales at discounted prices. Given Russia's bleak fiscal outlook, the role of the country’s oligarchs will become increasingly important. Russian elites, including senior officials and corporate leaders, are highly pragmatic and often apolitical. Like Moscow itself, they were prepared for sanctions but were ill-equipped to deal with a forever war of attrition. Restoring international operations and finding new customers is therefore their primary concern, even though they will continue to do business with the Kremlin. Their current reward for doing so is large cash flows from Asia and the global south. With limited opportunities to get back on the Western market, Moscow must make sure that Russian companies enjoy a friendly environment elsewhere. This is why for the past year Moscow has focused on building its leadership role within the Eurasian Economic Union and promoting its interests in multinational organizations such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These groups are designed to challenge the U.S. hegemony by promoting their members' view of a multipolar world. But they are often too mired in rivalry and conflicting interests to get much done. Larger members like Brazil and India see these organizations as places to confer with their peers while maintaining their strategy of non-alignment. The smaller players seek access to wider markets for growing their profits. Larger emerging markets such as Brazil and India have actually benefitted from Russia’s parallel imports, but for the most part, smaller ones were hurt, however indirectly, by the Western sanctions regime. They may be indifferent to the Ukraine conflict itself, but they have every reason to try to insulate themselves against further risk, even if that means cooperating with Russia. And the BRICS is an ideal forum within which to do so. The bloc focuses on economic policy coordination to establish better terms for its members to participate in the world economy. It eschews the imposition of values on its members, most of whom broadly share the belief that a multipolar world is a more profitable world for them. This explains the bloc’s appeal to less affluent countries that can’t go toe-to-toe with the G-7, and it explains why 18 more countries have applied for membership since its founding in 2006. The 15th BRICS summit will be held in South Africa in August, where it will examine, among other things, the admission of 17 new members from Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East. (The United States asked to attend the meeting but was denied.) (click to enlarge) More recently, a two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Goa, India, brought together the majority of the Asian and Eurasian members of the nascent BRICS grouping. The meeting was advertised as an opportunity to begin working through internal conflicts and to capitalize on the economic opportunities from improved relations. The SCO is similar to BRICS in that it is dominated by China and Russia, but the organization is primarily concerned with regional security challenges, including the fight against regional terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. It has largely focused on Asia but has slowly expanded its aperture as new members join. (click to enlarge) Perhaps the most important takeaway from the meeting in Goa was that Russia and India concluded that they can’t fully de-dollarize their bilateral trade. The value of India's Russian imports increased from $9.86 billion to $41.55 billion in the previous fiscal year, while Russia's contribution to Indian imports rose from 1.6 percent to 6.5 percent. During the same period, India's exports to Russia reached $2.8 billion, resulting in a $38.74 billion imbalance for New Delhi. All of this is impressive. Russia is currently making money by exporting crude oil to India, but it is having difficulty accessing the funds since the rupee is not freely convertible. As a result, $400 million in Russian dividends belonging to Indian corporations have been stranded in Russia. According to Russia’s foreign minister, Moscow has acquired "billions" of limited convertible rupees from accounts in Indian banks in trade settlements it cannot use. Russia now has a significant trade surplus with India, but it has no purpose for all the rupees it has amassed because India produces little that Russia wants to buy. And, because India has a large trade imbalance, it has been unable to earn enough foreign money to completely pay for its Russian imports in other currencies. And though many believe bilateral payments are still made in U.S. dollars, as well as dirhams, yuans and "several other currencies," Russia hoped to convince India to agree on a rupee settlement mechanism to help lower currency conversion costs and make sure it can continue working with India if the West imposes sanctions on third countries. Having a bilateral mechanism gives Moscow the flexibility it needs, especially since India has no interest in making its rupee fully convertible. Moscow’s failure to reach an agreement with India shows the limit of its influence on one of the prominent BRICS members. Moreover, the fact that Beijing announced its foreign minister would visit Germany and France days after the SCO summit ended – the same day Brussels said it would consider sanctions on Chinese companies for supporting Russia’s war machine – suggests Moscow hasn’t convinced Beijing to side with it and help the de-dollarization process either. The potential for the West to tighten sanctions and hit third countries that are facilitating trade with Moscow is clearly a concern among larger BRICS members. Though the expansion of the SCO and the BRICS is one of the unintended consequences of Western sanctions, bucking U.S. hegemony is impossible so long as all emerging countries want dollars to fund growth – and so long as they are unwilling to give up the Western market. In that sense, they can’t form a realistic alliance that Russia can use against the West. If anything, the groupings demonstrate why Western sanctions against Russia are working, albeit slowly and problematically for everyone involved.

 

[Beleg85]

Some notes from post-apocalyptic living conditions of Russian mobiks near Avdiivka. Sound much like WW I or Cassino.

 

[Kinophile]

Avdiivka. 

This is good to hear:

Hit the Invasion along its morale/trust fracture lines... 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Snap! 

[Probus]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a rough concept of how things could go:

1.  Launch a series of significant, but small scale, counter attacks in the Donbas.  We MIGHT be seeing this already (see ISW's report from May 9).

2.  Wait for Russian reserves to be committed to those areas then smash concentrations with HIMARS and other systems we know they have, including a lot more JDAM type attacks.

3.  Increase the scope and scale of the ground attacks in hopes that Russia won't be able to sit back, but instead either commit more forces or be obligated to withdraw.

4.  Hopefully gain significant ground, triggering Russia to commit more forces which can then get smashed when concentrated, thus committing more Russian troops.

5.  When it seems the Donbas counter offensive has got Russia's full attention, start hitting everything in the south.  If Storm Shadow is available, smash the Hell out of everything that Russia moved far to the rear.  Do this for a little while without significant ground action.

6.  With Russian forces tied up in Donbas and chaos (hopefully!) happening in the south, launch the main attack towards Tokmak and drive down towards Crimea while also pushing along the Dnepr.  Cut up Russia's LOCs as quickly and thoroughly as possible in order to get Russia forces to panic and withdraw (Russians do not like being cut off!).

7.  Keep the focus on the south and use the Donbas to pin down Russian forces.  Have modest expectations for taking terrain in Donbas, however if Russian forces withdraw or are overwhelmed, definitely take advantage to a point.  Better to be cautious here until the south is settled.  The last thing Ukraine needs is to overextend itself in the Donbas and have to divert forces from the south to stabilize things.

That's my thinking

Steve

I like it a lot! +1.

[kevinkin]

“I do think that we have enough support within Congress to sustain this for a good deal longer,” McConnell said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “All the leadership in the House and Senate in my party is very much in favor of defeating the Russians.”  

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3995898-us-announces-1-2b-ukraine-aid-package-ahead-of-counteroffensive/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Interesting observation. Does that mean the the offensive will wait for the missiles to arrive and become operational? Citadel was delayed because numerous new tanks, assault guns and anti-tank guns were being moved into position. One of those operational questions there are no easy answer to. In the present case, the RA is already dug in. Will they get any stronger? Will they get weaker by July? Will events outside Ukraine's control mess things up? I don't think the Storm Shadow would in itself will hold up things if all else is ready. Ukraine wouldn't place the fate of the offensive on one system. But if all they need to do it delay a few weeks, maybe adding those missiles would be well worth the wait. If the UA is planning on 2 months of heavy sustained offensive combat, there is plenty of time. Politicians be damned. 

Storm Shadow wouldn't need to be operational by the start of the offensive. It would be helpful if it was. But it being ready shortly after the offensive reaches its objectives on the Azov sea would be enough. A system that could fire out to 250-300km would put Mariupol in range of the Kerch bridge. And it would be arriving just in time to do some shaping operations for the follow up offensive.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Clip from 92nd brig. drone team. Russian from decimated squad gave up, giving signs he want to surrender to a drone. One drone keep him in the crosshairs, while other was send from Ukrainian lines with instructions to surrender. Fortunate muscovite received them, and after displaying signs of some hesitation (he would be killed for surrender- so Ukrainians drop granade nearby outside of the video to help him decide) followed "guard drone" toward Ukrainians. Pretty interesting, apparently protracted situation, showing possibilties of drone-human interaction.

 

Thank you for sharing, it's an interesting video, we have witnessed the history.

I saw the uploader mention that this is the second known incident of Russian forces surrendering to a drone, but it should be the first documented case of humans surrendering to a drone.

This surrendering appears to be low efficiency. Perhaps in the future, we might witness each squadron of drones with one drone assign to a special task, carrying a loudspeaker, communicating with the Russian forces below?

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Some notes from post-apocalyptic living conditions of Russian mobiks near Avdiivka. Sound much like WW I or Cassino.

 

A true horror story.  I continue to be amazed how the russians continue fighting.  The DNR troops too are a motley assortment with little motivation, one would imagine, to sacrifice their lives.  They even say as much and yet they are still fighting.

I cannot imagine modern westerners putting up with such conditions and such leadership for a minute.  Six months ago I was convinced that the russians would embrace any opportunity to retreat and turn on their officers even.  Now I am not so sure.  The russians keep on keeping on.

The war will be won via psychology as well as firepower.  We have many examples of determined troops overcoming firepower disadvantages.  What will it take to persuade these russians to give it up?  Will one good kick be enough to start the flight?  Or will they carry on sacrificing in the trenches .....

As Zelensky said to congress, the russians need to get the kremlin out of their heads.  It is pathetic how the wives and the soldiers complain to Putin of all people to correct their wrongs.  Even Priggy makes an appeal to some grandfather figure who will give him ammunition and make his world whole.  What is it with the russians?

How do we erase the kremlin from their heads?  I have faith in Zelensky.  As an actor he understands psychology better than most and he has performed many times in russia so he understands russians better than most.  Whatever happens next will have theatre at the core .. and I hope russia collapses both on the front lines and internally.

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 5/8/2023 at 1:49 PM, Centurian52 said:

Having seen the video, my takeaway is that hypersonic weapons aren't as useful to the US as they are to our adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are really only useful against a fairly narrow range of targets. In order to be worth targeting with hypersonic weapons a platform needs to be important enough to be worth expending extremely expensive ordinance, time sensitive enough to require ordinance that will reach it quickly, and well protected enough against conventional ordinance to require weapons that can penetrate those defenses. We have platforms that perfectly fit the description of a good target for hypersonic weapons (carriers), while our adversaries don't have many juicy targets. So hypersonic weapons neatly fit our adversaries' needs, but they don't fit our own needs as much. It's more urgent for us to develop defenses against hypersonic weapons than it is for us to develop the weapons themselves.

I just watched the whole 1 hour video.

 

I agree that the United States may not have a significant immediate need for hypersonic weapons, but they will still require such weapons in the medium to long term. Considering China's ongoing Midcourse Missile Defense tests and the potential development of a comprehensive space-based early warning system, as well as the presence of some hawks in the Pentagon who may plan SSBNs with hypersonic weapons for close-range strikes to seek the ability to destroy ICBM silos in Xinjiang and Gansu, the demand for such weapons is evident.

 

In non-nuclear confrontations, hypersonic weapons also have their own demand. As Perun mentioned in the introduction of the USN's hypersonic weapons program, HALO serves as a supplement to the conventional subsonic anti-ship missile arsenal. Taking PLAN as an example, the current PLAN has almost no effective response to the saturation attacks of AGM-158C LRASM once it moves away from the coastal areas. However, in the future, PLAN may push its warning range further out to 50nm by building a cost-effective ISR system (equipped with radar and infrared detection devices on board UAV swarms) and use carrier-based aviation plus relatively inexpensive combinations of HHQ-16 and HHQ-10 for interception. In such a scenario, the US side would require a high-speed "disruptor" to dismantle PLAN's defense system.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Clip from 92nd brig. drone team. Russian from decimated squad gave up, giving signs he want to surrender to a drone. One drone keep him in the crosshairs, while other was send from Ukrainian lines with instructions to surrender. Fortunate muscovite received them, and after displaying signs of some hesitation (he would be killed for surrender- so Ukrainians drop granade nearby outside of the video to help him decide) followed "guard drone" toward Ukrainians. Pretty interesting, apparently protracted situation, showing possibilties of drone-human interaction.

This sort of thing should happen more often.  Back in WW1 and WW2 days static positions were easier to hold because even when the enemy knew where you were and had artillery available, the chances that any one round would hit a specific solider was fairly low.  Exceptions being the focal point of a major offensive action where dense artillery significantly upped the odds of an individual soldier getting hit.

As of this war, if you are a soldier in a trench and just one or two rounds are fired at your position and hit exactly where your comrades were, killing them, you have to think that your odds of being killed are probably higher in the position than running around in the woods.  A drone comes over and drops grenades and finishes off a couple more of your comrades. 

At this point you should think "the enemy knows I am here, they know specifically where I am, and they have the ability to use that information to kill me.  I can not run, I can not hide.  It won't matter what I do, if I stay here I am going to die.  And for what?  I have a rifle and there's nobody here to shoot."  Even if you fully believe in the war, fully want to see every Ukrainian die by sledgehammer to the head, the facts about your specific situation aren't going to change your chances of survival.

The obvious thing to do is abandon the position or surrender.  And here's where understanding the Russian way of war becomes important to you.  If you think your guys are going to kill you or torture you for retreating, it would seem better odds of survival is surrendering. 

Drone comes over and you know damned well that the drone is connected directly to the enemy.  The people that are making the decision about when and how to kill you.  Signalling to the drone that you want to surrender is the best way to increase the odds of being taken without injury.  The Russian was smart to do this and the Ukrainians were smart to help him do it.

Fascinating to watch.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 5/7/2023 at 10:28 AM, Beleg85 said:

Muscovite video with YPR-765 hit by Russian fire. Fortunatelly, everyone seem to bail out.

 

It is a miracle that everyone managed to escape alive.

On the other hand, it reminds me of CM gameplay. I have always felt that the effectiveness of armor penetration after-effects in CM is somewhat exaggerated. A single 45mm AP penetrating from the side can kill an entire PzG squad inside a sdkfz251. In CMCW, a hit from an AT-4 or AT-7 on the upper front hull of an M113 like this, or in CMSF2, a hit from an AT-13 on the YPR, often means that no pixeltruppen can survive and escape from the burning wreck.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

A true horror story.  I continue to be amazed how the russians continue fighting.  The DNR troops too are a motley assortment with little motivation, one would imagine, to sacrifice their lives.  They even say as much and yet they are still fighting.

I cannot imagine modern westerners putting up with such conditions and such leadership for a minute.  Six months ago I was convinced that the russians would embrace any opportunity to retreat and turn on their officers even.  Now I am not so sure.  The russians keep on keeping on.

When this war started there were signs of Russians not wanting to fight and die for a war they weren't even convinced was necessary.  I saw a glimmer of hope that this would catch on get out of control.  But then, it seemed to stop.  Those that did not want to fight were either dead or back in Russia, while the rest stayed and fought despite how badly they were treated. 

One of the benefits of Putin's reluctance to mobilize is that, for the most part, the soldiers fighting for Russia are doing so because they volunteered.  Even when they find the conditions at the front horrible, they want to get the money they were promised and/or glory they think makes them more of a man.  Something like that.

The mobiks also made a choice because when they were mobilized they didn't bribe or hide their way out of service.  So again, a sort of fatalistic group to start with.

29 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The war will be won via psychology as well as firepower.  We have many examples of determined troops overcoming firepower disadvantages.  What will it take to persuade these russians to give it up?  Will one good kick be enough to start the flight?  Or will they carry on sacrificing in the trenches .....

There does seem to be some hope that things are nearing a breaking point.  The ability and willingness for Russian forces to resist Ukrainian attacks is diminishing due to losses (leaders, equipment, trained soldiers, ammo, etc), which means there's going to be more situations where units are decimated without having put up much resistance.  In the coming counter offensive this matters even more because enemy units getting wiped out (dead, retreat, or surrender) means exposed flanks which leads to more problems and (hopefully) local collapse of frontage.  Local collapses in multiple places increase the chances of an operational level collapse.  A couple of operational collapses leads to a strategic collapse of at least a major portion of the front.

29 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

As Zelensky said to congress, the russians need to get the kremlin out of their heads.  It is pathetic how the wives and the soldiers complain to Putin of all people to correct their wrongs.  Even Priggy makes an appeal to some grandfather figure who will give him ammunition and make his world whole.  What is it with the russians?

It is not just Russians.  Look at Western extreme right politicians and their message is exactly the same.  Not long ago such a person said, word for word, "I alone can fix it".  People who understand totalitarianism flagged this as a sign of the authoritarian view of the person, but his followers gleefully repeated it as if it was true.  To this day his followers still believe that "he alone can fix it", despite the illogic of it (democracies are by design not reliant upon a single person) or his track record (he did not fix any of the problems he identified).

100s of years of autocracy and effective social control makes Russia's problem with worshiping an individual more widespread, but at the core it's just the way a certain % of Human Beings are wired.  They want simple fixes to complex problems and no facts will get in the way of their belief that one person can solve everything.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Not to knock Chris_O, because he's one of my favorite Twitter OSINT guys, but I want to highlight this part of his thread on the mobiks as an example of (probably) misuse of imagery:

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1638222876057673745

I think this is more likely recon footage showing a unit sleeping rather than dead and dying.  The soldiers are too evenly spaced and there's no apparent cause for this many casualties.  The guys moving around a bit are just uncomfortable and repositioning themselves.

Just a reminder that our minds are receptive to being deceived.  It is always good to be reminded of this.  Including me, because I think the first time I saw this months ago I accepted it was "as described".

Steve

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Certainly seen my fair share of troops seemingly sleeping or feigning death in the hope of avoiding the attention of the drones bombers.

But in my viewing of drone and combat videos these last few weeks, there's a very constant theme of trenches littered with Russians that are obviously dead. And not infrequently, as far as it can be determined, some of the dead are a bit ripe.

That does seem to point towards a certain psychological breaking point being reached. Not recovering your dead or even chucking them over the parapet are indicators of a very grim mindset having set in. Of course, that is not an indicator of fragile morale. It may even be evidence of a fatalistic mindset amongst Russians that they will endure whatever they need to. OTOH I think troops that let their dead buddies lie where they fell aren't first in line to take the initiative in a fight.

All in all, I have confidence that the Ukrainians will be able to break through wherever they decide to launch their big attacks. And I have very little faith in the Russians in their current state being up to the task of slowing or stopping an advance once they break through. If the reserve trenches fail to stop the Ukrainians, the latter can keep going until logistics or the Azov sea forces them to stop, I think.

 

[Lethaface]

41 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Certainly seen my fair share of troops seemingly sleeping or feigning death in the hope of avoiding the attention of the drones bombers.

But in my viewing of drone and combat videos these last few weeks, there's a very constant theme of trenches littered with Russians that are obviously dead. And not infrequently, as far as it can be determined, some of the dead are a bit ripe.

That does seem to point towards a certain psychological breaking point being reached. Not recovering your dead or even chucking them over the parapet are indicators of a very grim mindset having set in. Of course, that is not an indicator of fragile morale. It may even be evidence of a fatalistic mindset amongst Russians that they will endure whatever they need to. OTOH I think troops that let their dead buddies lie where they fell aren't first in line to take the initiative in a fight.

All in all, I have confidence that the Ukrainians will be able to break through wherever they decide to launch their big attacks. And I have very little faith in the Russians in their current state being up to the task of slowing or stopping an advance once they break through. If the reserve trenches fail to stop the Ukrainians, the latter can keep going until logistics or the Azov sea forces them to stop, I think.

 

Good points and I have the same idea although I don't want to expect too much. 

Although I do think it is fair to say that there is a correlation between 'not even throwing the dead bodies, of what were once ones squad mates, over the parapet' and developing an 'unhealthy morale' condition.

I still have difficulty believing that a large majority of the Russian troops is really convinced that this is an existential war for Russia and will fight till the bitter end en masse. But the house of cards has held up almost magically. Why haven't they given up on their attacks while it is obviously not going to end in a victory anytime soon? How long will there be 'willing' to feed the grinder in never ending forlon hope attacks? Basically by now their operational efforts amount to a distributed forlon hope attack, while holding on the rest of the AO. It is not the most sophisticated way of fighting a war of attrition (although without caring for loss of life it might be), even though much of the study about war originates from Russia. 

Still rationally Russians are humans and everyone has a breaking point. When enough individual breaking points have been achieved, there are the conditions for a systemic collapse. 
I hope your observation of a psychological breaking point being reached is correct and this is one of the early signs of a larger collapse. It sure could be one. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Lethaface