How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

disappointing damage result, but for the Russians it likely means panic about basing those units there.  Still a win.  Kind of like the Russian navy backing off of Sevastopol.

Exactly this.  The importance of these attacks is to force Russia into acting as if there is a high level of threat.  Damage is highly desirable, but getting the Russians to expend energy on counter measures and/or implementing solutions that degrade military capabilities is a win for sure.

Steve

[akd]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A reminder that no claim of a false flag that I know of has stood up to extensive scrutiny as yet in this war: 

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/militaer-radiokommunikation-afsloerer-russiske-flaadeskibe-var-paa

Not in Russia.  There were a series of small-scale false flag or staged attacks in occupied areas of Ukraine just before start of full-scale invasion.  It remains within the Russian MO, but I agree that the humiliation with this one would seem to outweigh its potential usefulness for propaganda.  Big questions remain:

-Ukraine alone from Ukrainian territory?

-Ukraine alone from within Russian territory?

-Cooperation between Ukraine and internal Russian group?

-Internal Russian group acting alone seeking to destabilize regime?

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This was my very first thought when I heard of the attack.  It's the sort of thing that is quite common in autocratic environments.  If you can't directly challenge your opponent, do something to get the attention of a power that can.  In this case making Putin look weak and ineffective adds to chances that someone will think "enough is enough" and take action.

The attack was small and simple enough that literally anybody could have done it, which means all options are inherently open for consideration.  The question of who gains from this also produces a wide open answer.  Pretty much anybody who has a beef with Putin, including pro-war Russian factions, is a suspect.

I believe the two least likely culprits are Putin and Zelensky.  Putin because it makes him and his mighty military look weak, Zelensky because it offers no benefits at this point in time.  Especially with the counter offensive brewing.

That said, neither can be ruled out because the action could be tied into a larger strategy.  If it is, I'm not sure we'd recognize it at this point.

Steve

On your second to last point, it's pretty good information strategy...especially if deniable. People will...as we are doing...speculate endlessly on who/what/why in the absence of confirmation. Taken as a given that dictatorships under stress simply cannot afford to look weak, few will believe Putin did it to himself. So, the discussion will be of internal or external enemies, what it says about Moscow's vulnerabilities, Russia's military weakness, oligarch or military maneuvering, etc. In other words, a perfect way to accelerate Russian society's predilection for conspiracy and fear mongering.

So...no benefits for Putin but some very solid benefits for Ukraine and Zelensky...if he coolly denies it. 

PS: if we wanted confirmation that it *wasn't* a false flag, the fact that the Kremlin tried to keep it under wraps and had no orchestrated announcements or measures is pretty definitive. The Russian's don't take a dump, et cetera and so forth.

Edited May 3, 2023 by billbindc

[Cogust]

It is also a nice question to Putin, does he have the courage to stand a few 100 meters from the drone strike during the Victory parade? Or will he chicken out?

[kevinkin]

The bluster continues: 

And the Speaker of the Russian parliament Vyacheslav Volodin - an intimate Putin ally - appeared to demand a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

He raged: "An attack on the president is an attack on Russia.

"There can be no negotiations. We will demand the use of weapons that are capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime."

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev - now a top Putin security official - called for the "elimination" of Zelensky.

In a chilling statement, he said: "After today’s terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal. 

"It is not even needed to sign an act of unconditional surrender."

-----

Pro-Putin Just Russia party leader Sergey Mironov added: "This is the very real casus belli - a pretext for war.”

He urged the “liquidation of Ukraine's terrorist top brass. We have something to hit their bunkers with.”

Senior politician Alexei Zhuravlev urged: "It is necessary to target the centre of Kyiv. 

“Destroy the president's office, destroy to the ground the [Ukrainian parliament], the general staff, and the buildings housing the Ukrainian special services.”

MP Mikhail Sheremet said: “It's time to launch a missile strike on Zelensky's residence in Kyiv.”

[sburke]

heh, wasn't Russia's original plan for the invasion to eliminate Zelensky in that first 3 days?  Oh but NOW they are serious!  Morons.

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The bluster continues: 

And the Speaker of the Russian parliament Vyacheslav Volodin - an intimate Putin ally - appeared to demand a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

He raged: "An attack on the president is an attack on Russia.

"There can be no negotiations. We will demand the use of weapons that are capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime."

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev - now a top Putin security official - called for the "elimination" of Zelensky.

In a chilling statement, he said: "After today’s terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal. 

"It is not even needed to sign an act of unconditional surrender."

-----

Pro-Putin Just Russia party leader Sergey Mironov added: "This is the very real casus belli - a pretext for war.”

He urged the “liquidation of Ukraine's terrorist top brass. We have something to hit their bunkers with.”

Senior politician Alexei Zhuravlev urged: "It is necessary to target the centre of Kyiv. 

“Destroy the president's office, destroy to the ground the [Ukrainian parliament], the general staff, and the buildings housing the Ukrainian special services.”

MP Mikhail Sheremet said: “It's time to launch a missile strike on Zelensky's residence in Kyiv.”

As a journalist of my acquaintance put it "What are the going to do? Invade Ukraine?".

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, Seminole said:

Is that true?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy

Feb 26th 2023

Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter: footage of military officials snooping around on the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers may be lurking.

Yes. But. 

Any society in case of war divides on six groups

1. I must go at war immediately to defend my country. This is my obligation like man and citizen.

2. I will go as I will be ready (to have additional training, to finish some projects etc)

3. The war is terrible, I fear, but I understand this is my obligation to defend country in case of war, so I will go, when I will drafted.

4. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, I never served in army, but the law is law, I have no choice if I will be drafted

5. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, better I escape aboard illegally or for bribe 

6. Law? Сonstitution? Country? "F...k on all this! Nation is social construct! I'm "citizen of world"/ "let stupid plebs die in trenches - I'm too high educated (or rich) person for this dirt!" / "what f...g obligations! Let the state maintains my rights initially!" / "I'm pacificst" 

 

Since first two already at war completely, we have only 3-6. Our Constitution says that defending of the state in case of war is obligation of everybody citizen. Our drafting law allows to issue summons to army in any place. So nothing illegal if you get in on ski resort. But this article describe this in some apocaliptic way. Ski resorts weren't so empty as they write. 

Our order of summoning is next:

1. Issuing the summon to enlistment center

2. Cheking of your data in enlistment center. If you havn't milityary ID you will get it. 

3. Medical checking 

4. If you are recognized as fit of partially fit for service, you have two ways after p.3 - either you get mobilization issue and go to training center (40-60 % of probability) or you go home and wait when you will be need (enlistment office can call you through two weeks, two months, or can don't call at all)

 

But most of people of categories 5-6 (and many among 4th) thing that after p.1 they will be immediately sent to Bakhmut trenches. This, Russian and local "anti-drafting" propaganda from some "human rights activists" make own work among these people. So all "violent drafting" incidents has the same scenario:

- Greetings! We are representatives of X enlistment office. According the laws and Constitution of Ukraine we give to you summoning to enlistmemnt center. Please, show your passport and military ID (if you have latter)

- Whaaaat?! You have no rights! I read in internet!!! You must to visit me at home!!! But I will not open the door to you, moth...rs! Fu..k yo off!! Go from my way ! 

- Citizen, you are vilolate the law. You must show your documents and put a sign on summoning!

- Fu...k off!!! You, bastards! Guys shed own blood on frontline, but you are catching usual people in deep rear! Catch a son of oligarch! Why me?! I don't want go at the war! I have <1000 reasons> to stay home! 

- Documents please! 

- AAAA!!! Fu..k you! You will not force me!!!! You have no rights! Get this! *try to punch*

- *radio* bring a bus here, we have a client, will be pack him now.

Latter is not regulated by laws clearly. Militaries probably can't detain civilian by force, but police can do this, so they should call police, or policeman should be in their patrol.    

But on video you anyway can see only last part of dialogue, but never from what all started. This caused illusio of "mass violent mobilisation". 

Though, problems with mobilization exists. Many of those, who have money and havn't conscience already bought "white tickets" in the same enlistment offices or medical committees. Medical commission is often very formal, especially in district centres. From villages and small towns enlistment offices take almost all - and then commanders have many problems with unmotivated and drunken personnel. But if you have a money and you turned out in army at all, you can pay monthly "tax" to your commander and you will sit in place of unit dislocation or at leat in "third line". 

Drafting is going continuously. It never paused since Day 1. In some month it can be mass like in December-March of this year, in some month it can be almost inconspicuous.  
 

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

PS: if we wanted confirmation that it *wasn't* a false flag, the fact that the Kremlin tried to keep it under wraps and had no orchestrated announcements or measures is pretty definitive. The Russian's don't take a dump, et cetera and so forth.

I'm with you fully that the least of all likely suspects is Putin having done this as a false flag operation.  However, some Russian group doing it on their own and gleefully letting Ukraine take the blame is also a false flag operation.  Just not sponsored by the official power structure of Russia.

I do think that right now the timing isn't great or Ukraine.  We here have constantly speculated that a direct physical attack on the Kremlin would likely produce some form or retaliation that could not be adequately anticipated and planned for.  In other words, risky venture.  Which is no doubt at the heart of why the US apparently specifically said that Ukraine should not do such an attack. 

If Ukraine had just run out of military options, for sure I'd see Ukraine doing something to Russia's symbol of power.  But if it did, I doubt it would be an attack like this.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

19 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The bluster continues: 

And the Speaker of the Russian parliament Vyacheslav Volodin - an intimate Putin ally - appeared to demand a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

He raged: "An attack on the president is an attack on Russia.

"There can be no negotiations. We will demand the use of weapons that are capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime."

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev - now a top Putin security official - called for the "elimination" of Zelensky.

In a chilling statement, he said: "After today’s terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal. 

"It is not even needed to sign an act of unconditional surrender."

-----

Pro-Putin Just Russia party leader Sergey Mironov added: "This is the very real casus belli - a pretext for war.”

He urged the “liquidation of Ukraine's terrorist top brass. We have something to hit their bunkers with.”

Senior politician Alexei Zhuravlev urged: "It is necessary to target the centre of Kyiv. 

“Destroy the president's office, destroy to the ground the [Ukrainian parliament], the general staff, and the buildings housing the Ukrainian special services.”

MP Mikhail Sheremet said: “It's time to launch a missile strike on Zelensky's residence in Kyiv.”

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.

This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.

This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

2nd that!

[Joe982]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As a journalist of my acquaintance put it "What are the going to do? Invade Ukraine?".

Well yes. Officially Russia is not at war so therefore they might go to war now.

[kevinkin]

Russia is acting like the traditional bully again. Punch em in the noise and they scream bloody murder, then do nothing. Was thinking that if this type of attack across Russia and timed at critical points in the offensive might cause a lot of useful havoc (distraction). Look how they are reacting to a well placed pin prick?  Let's see if Russia releases a technical evaluation of the UAVs involved. 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm with you fully that the least of all likely suspects is Putin having done this as a false flag operation.  However, some Russian group doing it on their own and gleefully letting Ukraine take the blame is also a false flag operation.  Just not sponsored by the official power structure of Russia.

I do think that right now the timing isn't great or Ukraine.  We here have constantly speculated that a direct physical attack on the Kremlin would likely produce some form or retaliation that could not be adequately anticipated and planned for.  In other words, risky venture.  Which is no doubt at the heart of why the US apparently specifically said that Ukraine should not do such an attack. 

If Ukraine had just run out of military options, for sure I'd see Ukraine doing something to Russia's symbol of power.  But if it did, I doubt it would be an attack like this.

Steve

I would say that there's a pretty big gap between what the US says Ukraine should or should not do versus what Ukraine can and should do. The White House has to navigate escalation in such a way that we avoid both the war spreading/going nuclear and intervention in any serious way by China. In that role, it must be seen in Beijing as providing some restraint on Ukrainian actions and in Moscow as having been deterred at least to some extent in providing aid.

Ukraine is in a different position. Russia has already pulled out all the stops on conventional attacks and can only escalate in ways (NBC essentially) that would very likely cause irreparable damage to desperately needed Chinese support. The pain/gain is way too far out of whack for Russia for that to make sense so Ukraine is already carrying as much of the first half of that ratio it likely will. Ukraine can also complicate Chinese relationships with the EU in any post war scenario and has a market China will be very hungry to enter when this war is over. Beijing is not going to care one bit about a drone at the Kremlin given those stakes. 

 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

Well yes. Officially Russia is not at war so therefore they might go to war now.

We've seen that movie before...in fact, exactly one year ago. If Putin hesitated to break the social compact his regime depended on for power with the Russian people then, it's hard to see how conditions have changed in ways that make it seem like a wise move now.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[Centurian52]

38 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As a journalist of my acquaintance put it "What are the going to do? Invade Ukraine?".

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The attack was small and simple enough that literally anybody could have done it, which means all options are inherently open for consideration.  The question of who gains from this also produces a wide open answer.  Pretty much anybody who has a beef with Putin, including pro-war Russian factions, is a suspect.

Indeed. And the “who benefits” question is always a fine one. At this point, we really have no solid irrefutable evidence, so exploring various scenarios - brainstorming - is all we got. A few thoughts:

1. Putin rose to power on the back of his vicious assault on a terrorist/hostage situation in Moscow. It’s widely viewed as his shrewd, brutally effective false flag operation. In comparison, this pinprick is low risk/high return for whipping up a blood lust war frenzy in the heavily government-controlled Russian media environment.

2. I speculated earlier that the recently leaked alleged Talking Points Manual for dealing with the Ukrainian offensive might be laying the groundwork for a Putin/Russia off-ramp, in case of significant losses. The coincidence of the drone attack not long after that Official Talking Points Manual is interesting. Regardless, we could dismiss that longshot speculation and instead consider its opposite. Regardless of who launched the drone attack or why,  Putin now has at least significant and contemporary internal support for battlefield use of tactical nukes within Ukraine. If threatened with a looming significant defeat. And the option of claiming legitimacy by way of military use, not the “cowardly” assassination of the political leader.

3. In effect, recent days have strengthened Putin’s options for how to react to significant defeats in Ukraine.  In the case of battlefield defeat, seeking a way out of conflict and into peace talks.  Of course organized by China. Or for apocalyptic culmination of the war, if bizarrely he cannot see or accept any other way forward. This seems so unlikely and “unacceptable”. But so did the invasion itself. 

These are extremes. End-of-the-spectrum possibilities. I don’t think either is highly probable. More likely as many have speculated is a grinding onward in back and forth efforts over the next year or two. Or longer. The often suggested collapse of Russia is another outcome, but I am not sure how likely that is. We do know there is a strong current here in the forum and among the Western Allies to prevent it because of the fear of unleashed chaos and thousands of loose nukes. This summer is sure looking like one to remember.

[Vic4]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm with you fully that the least of all likely suspects is Putin having done this as a false flag operation.  However, some Russian group doing it on their own and gleefully letting Ukraine take the blame is also a false flag operation.  Just not sponsored by the official power structure of Russia.

Perhaps a RU nationalist faction with the aim of giving the Kremlin carte blanche to justify a full blown assassination campaign against Zelensky? Do we know whether or not there have been persistent attempts to that effect throughout the war? The RU response to this incident seems to indicate that such a campaign is being cranked to 11 if it hasn't been already.  

[Huba]

Unsurprisingly, the baddest tanks in UA disposal were used to equip the baddest armored formation:

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.

This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

Noon tomorrow is not too soon! Actually I would argue it is a year late...

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Perhaps a RU nationalist faction with the aim of giving the Kremlin carte blanche to justify a full blown assassination campaign against Zelensky? Do we know whether or not there have been persistent attempts to that effect throughout the war? The RU response to this incident seems to indicate that such a campaign is being cranked to 11 if it hasn't been already.  

As opposed to the plan they initially had to liquidate the entire Ukrainian leadership?  Russia would always have loved to kill Zelensky, they just aren't capable of it.  I think we are all still too gullible when it comes to Russian threats to escalate. They don't actually have any credible capability to escalate.  They can lob a few more bombs at civilians, maybe try to increase their mobilization numbers, but that is about it.  Nukes and other WMDs aren't credible.  Their only significant ally, China, isn't going to abide that.

Who planned the drone mission?  No idea.  Not sure I even really care.  Just waiting for the counter offensive to start.

[Centurian52]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

Just waiting for the counter offensive to start.

You and me both. It's getting to a point where I'm trembling with anticipation each morning as a click to open the latest ISW report.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Exactly this.  The importance of these attacks is to force Russia into acting as if there is a high level of threat.  Damage is highly desirable, but getting the Russians to expend energy on counter measures and/or implementing solutions that degrade military capabilities is a win for sure.

Steve

Exactly this! When you look at the first U.S. air attack on Tokyo, what was the actual result, very little damage, but a major Japanese move of Air and Naval assets to protect Tokyo, at the expense of supporting the overall war effort.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Unsurprisingly, the baddest tanks in UA disposal were used to equip the baddest armored formation:

 

Is that in Ukraine?  And the ground is dry?  Too bad not that dry in the east.  But just look at that beauty!  I looooooove me some Leo2!

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

You and me both. It's getting to a point where I'm trembling with anticipation each morning as a click to open the latest ISW report.

I'm still of the opinion that this won't be a giant attack.  I know I might be completely wrong, but I think UKR has a counteroffensive season ahead, not a big single counteroffensive.  I would prefer a single big super successful one, starting tomorrow.  But I wonder if we'll have a lot of "is this the big one?" days before we really see 'the big one'