How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

This has 'not Ukraine' written all over it. For one thing, a Ukrainian drone would've likely targeted a window to an important office, not a flag pole. If this is a Russian false flag attack then expect them to commit some ghastly horrific act in claimed 'retaliation' in the next couple days.

[Haiduk]

Deadly beauty - UKR UR-77 strikes on Russian positions. Looks like canal in SW from Bakhmut

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I think the 2 guys were just shielded by the cupola and it was a hand grenade level of explosives. Just a demonstration by Ukraine/pro Ukrainians 

There is two versions

1) this is not two men on cupola, but small flags on background. While drone was flying, "men" didn't appoach to the flag despite on their "movement" 

2) This can be men, but they were sent to cupola agter first hit

Here is allegedly result of first drone attack. The secons appeared since some time

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

There are other possibilities than a) false flag or b) drone flown from Ukraine. 

Third version told David Arakhamiya, head of "Servant of people" ruling party parliament fraction. Accorfing to his opinion this attack was sponsored by "club of offended" - Russian oligarchs, who are not close to Putin and suffer large financial and other losses, cuased by sanctions.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Deadly beauty - UKR UR-77 strikes on Russian positions. Looks like canal in SW from Bakhmut

 

Many thanks as always for keeping us in the loop! is there any indication what the UR-77. was shooting at? Video has fantastic atmospherics, but is not terribly clear.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Many thanks as always for keeping us in the loop! is there any indication what the UR-77. was shooting at? Video has fantastic atmospherics, but is not terribly clear.

I think at former UKR field fortified position, captured several months ago, when Wagners seized Kurdiumivka area

Edited May 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Also of interest is the perfectly located site for the video recording and the timing in the middle of the night of the drones’ approach and their cinematic detonation just above (not on) the building

Central Moscow is saturated in surveillance cameras.  Probability of one having a section of the most important place in Moscow (Red Square) in view is 100%.

[Haiduk]

There were beaver, polecat - now also very rare and very angry small animal - blind-mole rat (in ukr. "slipak"). This one like a beaver has sharp strong teeth, so he can easy inflict heavy wounds if bite

 

[Haiduk]

Russians already in hysteria. I will not post screens, but Volodin wrote "we will demand to use such powerful weapon, which will destroy fascist Kievan regime" (he meant nukes), Medvedev said "now we can and must hit important administrtative buildings in Kyiv and eliminate high political and military leaders of Ukraine". In Russian publics is apocaliptic messages are sharing that on strategic aviation airfields already gathering armada of bombers and mass retaliation strike will be conducted at this night. And allegedly two "special ordnances" delivered to Engels airfield.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There were beaver, polecat - now also very rare and very angry small animal - blind-mole rat (in ukr. "slipak"). This one like a beaver has sharp strong teeth, so he can easy inflict heavy wounds if bite

 

Yet another four legged Ukrainian volunteer who just needs a drone ride the the spot where he can do the most damage. Can you imagine the chaos if he was dropped into a crowded dugout in the middle of the night.

[Haiduk]

Just now, dan/california said:

Can you imagine the chaos if he was dropped into a crowded dugout in the middle of the night.

Texas сhainsaw massacre )))

[billbindc]

 

Don't believe the hype.

And there is no universe in which China, India, etc take what is essentially an embarrassing nuisance attack as a legitimate excuse to drop a nuke.

 

[Haiduk]

British equanimity of UKR soldiers when the bullet has flew in their car 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[billbindc]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russian TGs alarming about hundered convicts from Samara oblast are encircled in "Bilohorivka indusrial zone", Luhansk oblast (probably means water pump stattion SE from village), which they could seize about week ago, but because of absens of support, UKR troops encircled them. Many of convicts already killed and wounded, but their brigade comamnd doesn't resque them. They were attached to 123rd motor-rifle brigade (former 2nd motor-rifle brigade of LPR)

Convicts human resourse became one of apples of discord between Shoigu and Prigozhyn. Now Shoigu and MoD disrupted a monopoly of Prigozhyn and almost pushed him out from this "slave market". But in in Wagner convicts got minimal, but intensive training, which allowed to solve them primitive tasks, that convicts in regular army have very formal training. And much worse, when they are attached to LDPR troops. In these units they are "third sort people"    

Edited May 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian artillery, MLRS and aviation with guided bombs heavy shelled Kherson and villages along Dnipro today. They targeted large building hypermarket and railway station. Total number of victims - 21 killed, more than 40 wounded

 

[Beleg85]

 

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Ok, the most logical explanation: Russian MoD designed this "exploding flag" operation to simply legally seize all commercial drones in civilian hands.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Beleg85

[NamEndedAllen]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians already in hysteria. I will not post screens, but Volodin wrote "we will demand to use such powerful weapon, which will destroy fascist Kievan regime" (he meant nukes), Medvedev said "now we can and must hit important administrtative buildings in Kyiv and eliminate high political and military leaders of Ukraine". In Russian publics is apocaliptic messages are sharing that on strategic aviation airfields already gathering armada of bombers and mass retaliation strike will be conducted at this night. And allegedly two "special ordnances" delivered to Engels airfield.

“Snowflakes”

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I’m going to get banned for asking if Ukraine is still conducting a draft when you assert their force is volunteer vis-a-vis Russia’s?  I totally respect that’s it’s your sandbox, but it shouldn’t be an alternate reality, where up is down and drafted is voluntary.  That’s a disservice to the discussion here and flow of ideas.  

I've been managing discussions here for almost 25 years.  If you think I'm unable to see a clear and deliberate pattern to your behavior, you are seriously underestimating my skill set.  As such, you have earned a increased degree of scrutiny.  Based on the reactions I've seen to your previous posts (including knowing that you made at least one person's Ignore list), I am confident that I'm not wrong to do so.  Case in point...

The last go around where you derailed the discussion I, and others, pointed out you were dodging counter points.  You said you were not and so I reposted the direct challenge that you had dodged.  I even explicitly gave you permission to respond to it despite me asking for the distraction to stop.  You did not respond and I did not forget.

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I think the question of conscription should rise in our consciousness as the war proceeds into the next phases.  The_Capt has brought up the issue of how much of the Donbas really wants to be in Ukraine, and how many Ukrainians should be lost capturing it.  I think the same thing goes for Crimea.  Any of us looking at a map see the military/strategic significance of that place, but does that consideration override the desire of the people who live there?  Does it justify conscripting people to conquer it?

Seem like fair topics for discussion, while we wait for the mud to dry.  I consider the topic quite specific to this war, and in no sense am I making an effort to derail the thread.  I simply disagreed with how you presented the situation, cited the source of my understanding, and asked for clarification. 

Now, if you had posted this instead of what you did we'd be having a different discussion.  As you should have noted in my previous post, despite the manner in which you raised the issue I did address your point, despite the manner in which you made it.

Conscription is, indeed, an interesting topic.  Without it most wars could not be fought.  At least none at any sizeable scale.  Oddly enough, people do not tend to be all that enthusiastic about killing and risking being killed.  Even when conscription is justified by self defense, as is the case for Ukraine, it will be imperfect and not universally complied with.  But that is not the same as saying that a conscript is unwilling, which is the conclusion you put forward.

Ukraine, as a nation state, needs to decide if the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and Crimean civilians are worth sacrificing to right the wrong of 2014 (and everything since).  The life of a volunteer has just as much value as that of a conscript. 

I have expressed my personal opinion on this many times.  I do not think a prolonged military campaign to retake Crimea is in the country's best interests unless doing so would be a way to decisively end the war.  But I am not Ukrainian and therefore my opinion doesn't matter.

Steve

[billbindc]

A reminder that no claim of a false flag that I know of has stood up to extensive scrutiny as yet in this war: 

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/militaer-radiokommunikation-afsloerer-russiske-flaadeskibe-var-paa

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

“Snowflakes”

First example of Russian thinking outide the box during this war.

[Haiduk]

One today's deep strike wasn't mentioned here - Russian airfield Seshcha in Briansk oblast (this oblast again!) - 180-190 km to the border of Ukriane, Chernihiv direction. 556th airlifting aviation regoment. Single transport aviation unit in Russia, having An-124 Ruslan. Reportedly 5 UAVs atatcked airfield. Two were shot down with AA-guns and small-arms, two struck airfield, one UAV couldn't find. In result of attack one disabled (due to Russian sources) An-124 was slightly damaged. 

 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

One today's deep strike wasn't mentioned here - Russian airfield Seshcha in Briansk oblast (this oblast again!) - 180-190 km to the border of Ukriane, Chernihiv direction. 556th airlifting aviation regoment. Single transport aviation unit in Russia, having An-124 Ruslan. Reportedly 5 UAVs atatcked airfield. Two were shot down with AA-guns and small-arms, two struck airfield, one UAV couldn't find. In result of attack one disabled (due to Russian sources) An-124 was slightly damaged. 

 

disappointing damage result, but for the Russians it likely means panic about basing those units there.  Still a win.  Kind of like the Russian navy backing off of Sevastopol.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Third version told David Arakhamiya, head of "Servant of people" ruling party parliament fraction. Accorfing to his opinion this attack was sponsored by "club of offended" - Russian oligarchs, who are not close to Putin and suffer large financial and other losses, cuased by sanctions.

This was my very first thought when I heard of the attack.  It's the sort of thing that is quite common in autocratic environments.  If you can't directly challenge your opponent, do something to get the attention of a power that can.  In this case making Putin look weak and ineffective adds to chances that someone will think "enough is enough" and take action.

The attack was small and simple enough that literally anybody could have done it, which means all options are inherently open for consideration.  The question of who gains from this also produces a wide open answer.  Pretty much anybody who has a beef with Putin, including pro-war Russian factions, is a suspect.

I believe the two least likely culprits are Putin and Zelensky.  Putin because it makes him and his mighty military look weak, Zelensky because it offers no benefits at this point in time.  Especially with the counter offensive brewing.

That said, neither can be ruled out because the action could be tied into a larger strategy.  If it is, I'm not sure we'd recognize it at this point.

Steve