How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Seminole said:

I think the Kherson victory was both strategic and geopolitical.  Harder to incorporate Kherson Oblast into your conquest referendum when you don't even hold the capital.  And there is strategic significance in liberating the western bank, and effectively shutting the door on the threat to Odessa and the whole of the sea coast.

Cutting the land bridge is the most obvious, available, and 'marketable', win for the Ukrainians.  It also has strategic ramifications in hurting Russian LOCs.  

The Ukrainians can hopefully show that since last April Russia has steadily lost more than she has gained, and can only expect to lose yet more.

I think one of the biggest considerations for the Ukrainians has to be preservation of the new 'steel fist'.  You want an offensive that can show tangible results, but not get you bogged down, or ground down.  Dash to the coast fits that bill better than a dash to Sevastopol, or Kerch.

I'm not Wehrmacht fanboi, but I still marvel at the scope of the campaigns they waged when we see how easy it is to get bogged down and we dial our expectations accordingly.

 

Yep,  Achieving operational success and retaining the same+ punching potential into 2024 would upgrade 2023 into a strategic success. 

[Centurian52]

49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This morning at 5:20 we had missile strike attempt on Kyiv, but 11 missiles were intercepted on approaches. Terrible tragedy in Uman' town, Cherkasy oblast. The town was hit with two missiles, one hit some store facility, other hit directly at 9-storey residential building. One section of it collapsed completely. In present time 23 bodies are recovered from ruines (among them 4 children), 18 injured, 17 resqued

Also one missile destroyed private house in Dnipro city, young woman and her little doughter were killed. 

After a year of war and at least tens of thousands of deaths, this really shouldn't get to me as much as it does. But it is taking every ounce of my willpower to contain my rage right now. At this moment I want nothing less than the blood of every single Russian. I want Putin's head on a pike. This was not a military target. It wasn't a barracks, or a communication station, or even any sort of critical infrastructure. This was a residential building. This wasn't an act of war. This was an act of terrorism.

And I know this isn't the first time this has happened. It's just another example of a long pattern of Russian crimes. I know that events like this are behind every report I read of continued Russian missile attacks. Not to mention that mass graves have been found in every single liberated area, complete with clear signs of torture.

I understand in theory why we don't want Russia to collapse completely. But right now I just don't care. I want Russia to be destroyed.

[Centurian52]

49 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

 I will stop because all I can do is type strings of violence-tinged expletives......

You are a better person than me. Perhaps I should have followed your lead.

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

You are a better person than me. Perhaps I should have followed your lead.

Not better.  Just don't want a vacation from the forum....

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, hcrof said:

Obstacles: any breaching operation is always going to be difficult and risky. I am not sure the Ukrainians have such an overwhelming advantage in corrosive warfare to offset that.

In Kherson we saw russian airpower being used against temporary bridges (I remember a few videos of vehicles moving past a lot of destruction at various choke points). Also, yes the Russians are holding back now, but will they do so again if they feel it is all or nothing?

Look fair points and I do not want to punish counter-thinking, that is not what we are about here.  However, it really needs to be based on some fundamental indicators.  We would need to see a shift in RA capability on a systems level.  A few TU22s with napalm does not an effective CAS program make.  In fact given that platform we are more likely going to see incendiary terror attacks because Russia is all “FU LOAC!” -  note: see no-normalization, which is no doubt Putin’s plan as he does not want Russia to have a viable out as it would undermine him.

I do want to unpack just one thing further - the Putin Line.  Ok, so obstacles are basically inert in reality.  They cannot move or cause effects at range.  They exist solely to create enormous friction on an opponent in a very narrow window.  When properly supported this can be decisive as a smaller force can really cut a larger force to pieces.  Problem - you need well coordinated and agile smaller forces.  When it comes to quality capability Russia has the smaller force.  Guns that can rapidly respond and shoot and move.  C-move forces that can quickly reposition.  

The RA has basically been throwing up all over itself for over a year. The quality forces it needs to actually exploit those narrow windows of opportunity are in the minority.  Instead they have wads of infantry stuffed into holes and even those are mauled up.  When I saw Russia attacking this winter, I was shocked (and probably should not have been).  It is pure madness to bleed out a force on useless objectives when one is trying to freeze a conflict in place and play a long game.  So now the RA is badly beat up.  It has lost a lot of operational connective tissue and enablers it simply cannot make up for.  One could argue that Bakhmut was not a Russian Offensive as much as it was a Ukrainian shaping operation.

So what?  Well they can have mounds of dragons teeth and AT ditches but their ability to actually cover them with effective fires is highly in question.  These are really big frontages they have to cover off.  Further the west is pushing all the ISR to the UA so they can see the weak points.  The UA can also conduct deep strike campaigns to make things worse both before and during the offensive.  Then, as has been noted, once the shell is first rotted out, and then broken, there is nothing substantial behind it.

Finally, I am not even sure obstacles work like they used to anymore.  If I can see your entire operational system and hit it, I could stand back and hammer it until it collapses under its own weight and simply walk over the obstacles.  The actual ROI on obstacles as they stand now is in question.

This is a lot like back in the Gulf War.  People saw the massive, and amazingly professional Iraqi obstacle belts and got really concerned.  In the end it did not matter, massed AirPower followed up by GPS enabled manoeuvre made all that work useless.  I do not think the UA has the same level of advantage here but they likely have enough to crack this egg and make some break outs, likely in a couple locales.

Gonna be one for the books…and stay tuned in right here kids, we will be providing colour commentary the whole way!

Edited April 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[CAZmaj]

Damning NYT story about how @amnesty commissioned an independent review of its deeply flawed Ukraine report published last year, and then lobbied to soften the review and buried it when the findings showed the human rights org had badly botched the report. 

pic.twitter.com/Ks9nbSli8o

Edited April 28, 2023 by CAZmaj

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Damning NYT story about how @amnesty commissioned an independent review of its deeply flawed Ukraine report published last year, and then lobbied to soften the review and buried it when the findings showed the human rights org had badly botched the report. 

pic.twitter.com/Ks9nbSli8o

These are the same folks saying we can't possibly let Ukraine shoot DPICM at the murderous B$###^#^&&S who trying to kill every man one woman and child in the country. A fact they proved again TODAY. I will let this go just as soon as we ship the bleeping shells.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13262qd/a_full_video_of_a_swarm_of_ukrainian_fpv_kamikaze/

It is a memo from the future, it says if you don't have a solution for the drones, don't come to the war.

 

[Kraft]

I dont get why Russia picks such targets.

Either their missiles suck so much that they fail to not hit a city - or they do it on purpose.

But nobody can be dumb enough to think terror bombing ever worked so the only conclusion I see is that Russians like to behave as @kraze describes.

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kraft

[kevinkin]

The science of nuclear attribution:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/04/28/u-s-wires-ukraine-with-radiation-sensors-to-detect-nuclear-blasts/

Sort of interesting this comes out now. Perhaps another finger in Putin's evil eye. 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

I dont get why Russia picks such targets.

Either their missiles suck so much that they fail to not hit a city - or they do it on purpose.

But nobody can be dumb enough to think terror bombing ever worked so the only conclusion I see is that Russians like to behave as @kraze describes.

 

Probably the only thing they can hit is a city, but they can't pick a location within it with any accuracy.  They may have demonstrated guiding some of their missiles with GPS, but given how little GPS/GNSS we've seen in the Russian kit, it's unlikely they ever had enough to put on many of their missiles.  1 km CEP is maybe fine if you're putting a nuke on the pointy end, but not for a bunch of HE.  Shaheds and some cruise missiles may be slow enough that they can use consumer GPS, but ballistic missiles won't be.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Payback?

 

[sburke]

49 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Payback?

 

Brought to you by Benson and Hedges,,,,

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/04/26/the-west-should-supply-ukraine-with-f-16s

Headline says it all, except the part about if NATO had started a year ago, they would be there now. And if they were there now, skittish White House staffers would not whispering all over Washington about how nervous they are about the spring offensive working out. Of course a hundred ATACMS would soothe those nerves nicely, and they could be there in days.

Edited April 29, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

Sniff sniff

I smell shaping ops... 

 

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, chrisl said:

Probably the only thing they can hit is a city, but they can't pick a location within it with any accuracy.  They may have demonstrated guiding some of their missiles with GPS, but given how little GPS/GNSS we've seen in the Russian kit, it's unlikely they ever had enough to put on many of their missiles.  1 km CEP is maybe fine if you're putting a nuke on the pointy end, but not for a bunch of HE.  Shaheds and some cruise missiles may be slow enough that they can use consumer GPS, but ballistic missiles won't be.

 

Russians used Kh-555/Kh-101 cruise missiles in this raid. A day before they have launched four ground-based "Kalibr-K" missiles on Mykolaiv. Russians obviuosly targeted wide area of military facilities and territories (mostly abandoned since 90-2000th) on the north of the city. One missile reportedly exploded there. The house, being struck, stands in 500 m from the fence of military territory and was built in 2008 - judging to Google Earth before there were aither private garages or a barren at all.  

So it can be three reasons:

- old map data

- incorrect determination of coordinates/or incorrect input of coordinates in the missile

- deliberate strike

Edited April 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians used Kh-555/Kh-101 cruise missiles in this raid. A day before they have launched four ground-based "Kalibr-K" missiles on Mykolaiv. Russians obviuosly targeted wide area of military facilities and territories (mostly abandoned since 90-2000th) on the north of the city. One missile reportedly exploded there. The house, being struck, stands in 500 m from the fence of military territory and was built in 2008 - judging to Google Earth before there were aither private garages or a barren at all.  

So it can be three reasons:

- old map data

- incorrect determination of coordinates/or incorrect input of coordinates in the missile

- deliberate strike

We have seen several attacks like this that were probably due to bad programming of the flight path.  The closer the cruise missile files to the ground, the harder it is to shoot down.  The building that was hit was quite tall, so it is probable that they had the wrong altitude for that part of the path or it was off course.  Given how sloppy Russians are with their work and the reliability of their equipment, either or both are very good possibilities.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Rybar claims UKR performed mass attack on Crimea with several groups of Mugin-5 UAVs total about 10. As if except oil base other targets were Gvardeyskoye airfield and some objects near Yevpatoria. He claims one UAV was shot down with gunfire over Sevastopol, one - with Pantsyr S1 near Gvardeyskoye and all other were supressed or landed on the sea by EW assets. The latter claims is doubt because Mugin-5 hasn't contol channel on such big distance and uses likely inetrtial system.

On the video shot down Mugin-5 nar Zernove village, probably it tried to approach to Gvardeyskoye airfield

Inetesting that on 24th of April the same type of UAV has struck oil base in Roven'ky, Luhansk oblast

 

[Haiduk]

Silent war in so-called "plavni" (wide floating thikets of reeds) among islands on Dnipro near Kherson. Russian ruber boat hit. Mocking song "Sink the Bismark" on background )

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Since I am not above shamelessly stealing a joke from Reddit:

 

Are we sure that is an oil depot on fire and not Admiral Kuznetsov pulling into Sevastopol harbour?

[womble]

2 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Are we sure that is an oil depot on fire and not Admiral Kuznetsov pulling into Sevastopol harbour?

LOL

I think so... AK can't even raise steam at the moment, can it? A true "dockside queen".

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Silent war in so-called "plavni" (wide floating thikets of reeds) among islands on Dnipro near Kherson. Russian ruber boat hit. Mocking song "Sink the Bismark" on background )

 

 

Hit with what?  A tilt rod mine?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, womble said:

LOL

I think so... AK can't even raise steam at the moment, can it? A true "dockside queen".

Easy now, it is a new century.  I believe "dockside majesty" or "dockside royalty" is more acceptable in these times.

[Yet]

1 hour ago, womble said:

LOL

I think so... AK can't even raise steam at the moment, can it? A true "dockside queen".

'dockside' 'queen' that needs to be 'dragged', which is RU 'pride'. seems to me she could be refitted for Amsterdam in a few months. 

[womble]

48 minutes ago, Yet said:

'dockside' 'queen' that needs to be 'dragged', which is RU 'pride'. seems to me she could be refitted for Amsterdam in a few months. 

Given the official/general societal attitude in RUF towards the rainbow community, perhaps that's why the aircraft carrier isn't getting the maintenance needed for operational readiness...