How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Diagram of Russian radars and EW assets, destroyed month-by-month. Look at peaks, they preceded to UKR offensives in next month. And look at number of destroyed assets in March of 2023. Looks like we are close, but probably weather and delays with heavy ammunition deliveries delayed the start

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 Looks like we are close, but probably weather and delays with heavy ammunition deliveries delayed the start

I´m pretty sure we are. If the UKR has some sense of humour, I know they have, we´ll see something important happening around 8th/9th of may. Spring is coming!

[danfrodo]

Summary today + some videos.  First, the good times continue to roll in Bakhmut.  RU making life hell for the UKR fighters there via lots of artillery & infantry -- but that's a lot of shells that won't be around later.   Plus a couple Kanal13 quick videos, trench fight and some abandoned RU armor.  Not amazing videos but worth the short investment.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/15/2164012/-Ukraine-Update-Bakhmut-has-held-Russia-back-for-eight-months-but-is-that-enough

 

 

[danfrodo]

DesertFox posits that it would be great if the UKR counteroffensive happens May 8/9 -- I agree that would be funny to see Putin doing his Victory Speech while all the world's news orgs are cutting over to discuss UKR breakthroughs.

But I wonder what things will really be like in the counteroffensive.  I don't think it will be one big thing, at least not for a while.  I think it'll be increased corrosive activity in many sectors w raids and capturing of various forward RU defensive positions, plus increased destruction of RU logistics/HQ.  Then more corrosion and more and more..... then somewhere we find out UKR has pushed ~10km here and there.  But will that be 'the counteroffensive'?  I suspect UKR will keep Putin guessing as to where the real attack will be and I think this will go one for weeks, not days, before we say "oh look here's the counteroffensive".  Putin's brain will be like a rat shaken by a rat terrier after a few weeks of this. 

[JonS]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Motor-rifles - 2021, tankers - 554, artillery - 411, VDV - 1574, Naval infantry - 574, spetsnaz - 404, Rosgvardiya - 422, some unmarked (Air forces/air defense probably) - 146, mobiks - 1366, volunteers - 1760, PMC - 650, convicts - 1619, other branches - 933, no data - 3637

That's a weird graph - it mixes branch of employment with enlistment channels, meaning that by design there is some unknowable proportion of either undercounting (if each number represents a unique individual) or double counting (if, say, the convicts are also counted in PMC )

[NamEndedAllen]

Catching up with Young Mr. Teixeira, the clearance situation is as bad as I suspected a few pages ago. In case it’s pay-walled, here is a few summary points:
“Jack Teixeira had a top secret security clearance at 21. Here's what to know about why that is, and what else goes into the security clearance process”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/16/classified-documents-leaked-security-clearance/

* Got the TS/SCI clearance in 2021 when 19 years old. Had on the job access to that material at the facility through his duties. (whether that should be the case or not)

*Also had access to the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, allowing him to read and print the wide range of classified high level of material that leaked.

* Quoting: “Pentagon spokesman Patrick S. Ryder, a brigadier general, said Thursday that the military regularly entrusts young people with classified information, that Teixeira’s having that level of clearance was normal and that scores of other young workers have that type of access”. (my emphasis)

None of this explains how he was able to print the mass of documents over time, and then remove them. That’s assuming he could only access and print within the secure location, and nowhere else. The folded up docs shown in the leaks suggest that was the case, but doesn’t prove it. Let’s hope the security is and has been far better at the other locations where “scores of other young workers” have this wide access to sensitive, highly classified material. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

 

 

 

The 2nd video is worth watching the full /uncut 20 minute version to get an idea about the reality of trench fighting.

You cant even tell anymore whos dead body they are walking on, with soldiers from both sides laying on top of eachother in different stages of decay, limbs sticking out of the ground in collapsed trench sections and all the guys in the video know life expectancy is dropping rapidly. 

I hope this **** finally changes with the offensive

Edited April 15, 2023 by Kraft

[Nastypastie]

Vexler's doing a live Q&A atm if that's anyones cup of tea.

 

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Are you sure brain is the part you want to protect the most? Have you thought about anti-probe tinfoil underpants?

Nah, at his age it’s definitely his brain he wants to protect more.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

The 2nd video is worth watching the full /uncut 20 minute version to get an idea about the reality of trench fighting.

Is this only on Telegram?

[kluge]

6 hours ago, Seminole said:

It will be interesting to see the breakdowns postwar for what took out Russian and Ukrainian AFVs (ATGMs, drones, mines).

Artillery is credited with the vast majority of AFV kills during the opening phases of the war, according to https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Catching up with Young Mr. Teixeira, the clearance situation is as bad as I suspected a few pages ago. In case it’s pay-walled, here is a few summary points:
“Jack Teixeira had a top secret security clearance at 21. Here's what to know about why that is, and what else goes into the security clearance process”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/16/classified-documents-leaked-security-clearance/

* Got the TS/SCI clearance in 2021 when 19 years old. Had on the job access to that material at the facility through his duties. (whether that should be the case or not)

*Also had access to the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, allowing him to read and print the wide range of classified high level of material that leaked.

* Quoting: “Pentagon spokesman Patrick S. Ryder, a brigadier general, said Thursday that the military regularly entrusts young people with classified information, that Teixeira’s having that level of clearance was normal and that scores of other young workers have that type of access”. (my emphasis)

None of this explains how he was able to print the mass of documents over time, and then remove them. That’s assuming he could only access and print within the secure location, and nowhere else. The folded up docs shown in the leaks suggest that was the case, but doesn’t prove it. Let’s hope the security is and has been far better at the other locations where “scores of other young workers” have this wide access to sensitive, highly classified material. 

Not sure what the age issue is, he can vote and kill people for his country, he can hold a clearance.  In fact on the surface he looks like a poster child for clearances.  Likely zero foreign contacts.  No wife, no kids, no bills or leverage.  Good Christian boy so likely no illicit or online sexual weirdness.  Likely no addictions record and probably had a spotless criminal record.  The kid was likely clean as a whistle.

Doing a low level job that required him to work on what looked like server maint for classified networks, hence access.  I mean what should the cut off age be?  Of course the military has young people doing this work…we recruit them for it.  I doubt anyone saw this one coming.  The kid was a sad lonely guy who was trying to show off to friends and did something incredibly dumb.  And now he is going to jail for probably about as long as he has been alive.  Now should the US military take a long look at how TS data is stored and maintained, yep.  Are we going to suddenly stop taking teenagers into cyber (there are likely operators with even higher clearances in that bunch)? Nope.

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Good Christian boy so likely no illicit or online sexual weirdness.

what planet do you live on where "good Christian boy" precludes bizarre sexual behavior?  For all their ranting about gay drag queen groomers, the worst groomers I've seen are these "good Christian leaders".

anyway I doubt this idiot is gonna get hit with the full ton of bricks.  He wasn't passing to a foreign intelligence agency or trying to sell them,  just being really stupid.

[cyrano01]

52 minutes ago, kluge said:

Artillery is credited with the vast majority of AFV kills during the opening phases of the war, according to https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

Also interesting to see how the discussion of the UAF dispersed light infantry defence, plus ISR, plus precision fires at all depths defence is pretty much exactly what was discussed on this  at the time.  What caught my eye was the figure for just how dispersed that infantry was, 3km frontage for a company position!  That's really quite a lot when you think that a late Cold War Soviet MR Battalion was expected to have an attack frontage of about 1km give or take.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure what the age issue is, he can vote and kill people for his country, he can hold a clearance.  In fact on the surface he looks like a poster child for clearances.  Likely zero foreign contacts.  No wife, no kids, no bills or leverage.  Good Christian boy so likely no illicit or online sexual weirdness.  Likely no addictions record and probably had a spotless criminal record.  The kid was likely clean as a whistle.

Really? *A* clearance? I have family members much older than him, who sweated through the full SSBI or Full and TS/SCI process. It’s an 8-15 month trip. This wildly bigoted and troubled not-an-exemplary kid’s religion has nothing to do with the process.  Regardless, we all know (or with any science background, darn well should know ) 19–ish year old teenage brains have not matured. The last part of the brain to mature is the frontal cortex. Where good judgement, self-control, social skills, and decision-making skill come from. So yeah. Not arguing about the drinking or voting age, or recruitment age. I do think it’s playing with fire to put “scores” of 19-21 year olds fresh out of high school into positions with full access to SCIFs material and entry into the JWICS. With no ability or program to monitor the changes these 19 year olds go through on their way to actual biological maturity. What could go wrong? BTW, anyone think he never spouted off about his government conspiracy racist fantasies to anyone anywhere else?

Lastly, the US.military is sufficiently large to revise and assign this critical responsibility to an age appropriate rank and paygrade. The number of slots is “scores”, not “hundreds”. Do we really need to gamble like this? No. While of course it’s no silver bullet, it’s a LOT easier than trying to institute some sort of Total Big Brother real time microscope on every minute of people’s lives.

‘The part of the brain behind the forehead, called the prefrontal cortex, is one of the last parts to mature. This area is responsible for skills like planning, prioritizing, and making good decisions”... and… “The brain finishes developing and maturing in the mid-to-late 20s.” https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/the-teen-brain-7-things-to-know

Edited April 16, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Really? *A* clearance? I have family members much older than him, who sweated through the full SSBI or Full and TS/SCI process. It’s an 8-15 month trip. This wildly bigoted and troubled not-an-exemplary kid’s religion has nothing to do with the process.  Regardless, we all know (or with any science background, darn well should know ) 19–ish year old teenage brains have not matured. The last part of the brain to mature is the frontal cortex. Where good judgement, self-control, social skills, and decision-making skill come from. So yeah. Not arguing about the drinking or voting age, or recruitment age. I do think it’s playing with fire to put “scores” of 19-21 year olds fresh out of high school into positions with full access to SCIFs material and entry into the JWICS. With no ability or program to monitor the changes these 19 year olds go through on their way to actual biological maturity. What could go wrong? BTW, anyone think he never spouted off about his government conspiracy racist fantasies to anyone anywhere else?

Lastly, the US.military is sufficiently large to revise and assign this critical responsibility to an age appropriate rank and paygrade. The number of slots is “scores”, not “hundreds”. Do we really need to gamble like this? No. While of course it’s no silver bullet, it’s a LOT easier than trying to institute some sort of Total Big Brother real time microscope on every minute of people’s lives.

‘The part of the brain behind the forehead, called the prefrontal cortex, is one of the last parts to mature. This area is responsible for skills like planning, prioritizing, and making good decisions”... and… “The brain finishes developing and maturing in the mid-to-late 20s.” https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/the-teen-brain-7-things-to-know

This is what I wrote about several days ago.  Age matters.  Just ask car insurance companies why they hit younger drivers with higher premiums until they are in their early 20s.  In fact, I looked it up and males pay higher premiums than females until they are about 30.  Why is this?  Well, it probably is related to the person that passed me about an hour ago.  Double yellow line in a dense downtown 25mph zone, but apparently the driver thought 45 was the speed limit so...

I don't think all males under 25 are crap and can't be trusted, but I do think that they should be presumed less reliable the younger they are.  That means monitoring until a degree of reliability is established.  19 and pretty much fresh in uniform?  I don't see how anybody could know how this kid would react to such responsibility.

Plus, WTF was he doing with access to these programs?  I've said it before, there is absolutely *NO* reason an IT guy needs unfettered, non-expiring access to the content.  If someone within the military establishment thinks this is the way it needs to be, then I think that person should be removed and someone who knows what they are doing put in his/her place.

Case in point -> this forum.  We are hosted by Invision and their IT folks have full access to the servers and software infrastructure, we do not.  However, we have full access to our forum (including stuff you guys can not see) and the IT guys *DO NOT*.  What is not viewable to you guys here is not viewable to them by default.  When there is a need for their IT guys to do something with our forum (troubleshooting an update or something else that went wrong) then we grant them access.  When their task is done, the access goes away and we go back to the default state.  There is absolutely no reason why secured government software needs to be less secure than an f'n BBS environment.

However, I presume the government systems do work as they should and that procedures, rather than technology, are to blame for this fiasco.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

anyway I doubt this idiot is gonna get hit with the full ton of bricks.  He wasn't passing to a foreign intelligence agency or trying to sell them,  just being really stupid.

Nope, full ton of bricks needed.  Not only to punish the bad behavior that he clearly knew he was engaging in, but to send a clear message to other would be violators that serious repercussions are to be expected.  I know we can't draw and quarter people any more, so in my view whatever punishment he gets it will be mild compared to the harm he's done.

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope, full ton of bricks needed.  Not only to punish the bad behavior that he clearly knew he was engaging in, but to send a clear message to other would be violators that serious repercussions are to be expected.  I know we can't draw and quarter people any more, so in my view whatever punishment he gets it will be mild compared to the harm he's done.

Steve

Yeah but I still don't think they will.

[MeatEtr]

30 minutes ago, sburke said:

Yeah but I still don't think they will.

Agreed, just dont think they'll throw the book at him. Thinking like 5-10 yrs at best.

[Kinophile]

https://www.molfar.global/en-blog/electronic-warfare-equipment-of-russian-occupiers

@Haiduk aleady posted the graph 

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, MeatEtr said:

Thinking like 5-10 yrs at best.

Afterwards he will be flipping burgers if he is lucky.

 

[Battlefront.com]

As usual, ISW has a number of interesting assessments on stuff we're talking about here.  In particular the latest dust-up with Prig, Russia's worsening demographics, and mobilization efforts.  Probably best to read them directly as they are cumulatively too long to post here verbatim:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2023

ISW has also seen evidence that Russia is going on the defensive opposite Kupyansk, which is the northern most active part of the front.  They have also assessed that the VDV units appearing on Wagner's flanks at Bakhmut are more there for defensive purposes rather than to try and encircle the city.  Russians appear nervous that at least some of the Spring/Summer offensive will be aimed at reliving the pressure on Bakhmut.

Steve

[chrisl]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is what I wrote about several days ago.  Age matters.  Just ask car insurance companies why they hit younger drivers with higher premiums until they are in their early 20s.  In fact, I looked it up and males pay higher premiums than females until they are about 30.  Why is this?  Well, it probably is related to the person that passed me about an hour ago.  Double yellow line in a dense downtown 25mph zone, but apparently the driver thought 45 was the speed limit so...

I don't think all males under 25 are crap and can't be trusted, but I do think that they should be presumed less reliable the younger they are.  That means monitoring until a degree of reliability is established.  19 and pretty much fresh in uniform?  I don't see how anybody could know how this kid would react to such responsibility.

Plus, WTF was he doing with access to these programs?  I've said it before, there is absolutely *NO* reason an IT guy needs unfettered, non-expiring access to the content.  If someone within the military establishment thinks this is the way it needs to be, then I think that person should be removed and someone who knows what they are doing put in his/her place.

Case in point -> this forum.  We are hosted by Invision and their IT folks have full access to the servers and software infrastructure, we do not.  However, we have full access to our forum (including stuff you guys can not see) and the IT guys *DO NOT*.  What is not viewable to you guys here is not viewable to them by default.  When there is a need for their IT guys to do something with our forum (troubleshooting an update or something else that went wrong) then we grant them access.  When their task is done, the access goes away and we go back to the default state.  There is absolutely no reason why secured government software needs to be less secure than an f'n BBS environment.

However, I presume the government systems do work as they should and that procedures, rather than technology, are to blame for this fiasco.

Steve

25 is a reasonable age for another reason: the standard form asks for information going back 7 years.  For an 18 year old,. that's going back to age 11.  People change a huge amount between 11 and 18, and there's also a very limited documentation trail of what a person is like at 18. But for a 25 year old that's going back to an age where they have most adult rights and privileges (except legal alcohol in most states).  So setting it at 25 mreans you get people who are more mature and also have started to show who they are as adults.

The down side of that is that it shuts people who are fresh out of college out of clearance jobs, giving them more time to get settled at a high paying FAANG job where none of the clearance hassle is required.  And probably eliminates a lot of very smart early career math people - I used to know a guy who was an assistant professor of math at a top 20 school when he was 23.  

A compromise might be to use the continuous review process (which is where the renewal thing is supposed to be headed, anyway) more heavily on younger people with shorter histories.  You're 18 with a brand new TS/SCI?  They're going to watch your internet traffic pretty closely.  25 with a 7 year history of no issues through the continuous review?  They'll have backed off over time to a lower level of intrusiveness.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Afterwards he will be flipping burgers if he is lucky.

 

Just like Oliver North?  (if I were younger I would know what Emoji to use for sarcasm, but I'm too old so I'll have to let people figure it out on their own)

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, chrisl said:

25 is a reasonable age for another reason: the standard form asks for information going back 7 years.  For an 18 year old,. that's going back to age 11.  People change a huge amount between 11 and 18, and there's also a very limited documentation trail of what a person is like at 18. But for a 25 year old that's going back to an age where they have most adult rights and privileges (except legal alcohol in most states).  So setting it at 25 mreans you get people who are more mature and also have started to show who they are as adults.

The down side of that is that it shuts people who are fresh out of college out of clearance jobs, giving them more time to get settled at a high paying FAANG job where none of the clearance hassle is required.  And probably eliminates a lot of very smart early career math people - I used to know a guy who was an assistant professor of math at a top 20 school when he was 23.  

A compromise might be to use the continuous review process (which is where the renewal thing is supposed to be headed, anyway) more heavily on younger people with shorter histories.  You're 18 with a brand new TS/SCI?  They're going to watch your internet traffic pretty closely.  25 with a 7 year history of no issues through the continuous review?  They'll have backed off over time to a lower level of intrusiveness.

All of this

We all know that age is only a rough gauge.  I girl in my class year was 2 years younger because she was allowed to skip ahead.  And at 15 she graduated High School (early) to go to MIT.  So I do understand the need to judge people based on ability rather than strictly on age.  However, the suggestion that an 18 year old should be treated the same as a 40 year old is hard to swallow.  So yes, raise the bar for the younger ones getting accepted down this career path in the first place, then monitor them far more until there's reason to not.

Another private sector example of how to deal with getting younger people into a profession without compromising safety... truck drivers.  Up until recently long haul truckers (across state lines) had to be 21 years old.  This has only just been lowered to 18 mostly out of desperation to replace the 800,000 truckers we're now short.  However, they don't just hand the youngster a license and say "you're free to roam the nation's highways!".  Instead:

The FMCSA will issue a specific exemption to the normal age restrictions for each young driver admitted to the program. Trucks used in the program will be required to have certain safety technologies, including automatic emergency braking, forward-facing video cameras and a top speed automatically limited to 65 miles per hour. Apprentice drivers will not be allowed to drive trucks with more than one trailer or trucks carrying hazardous materials.

The experienced driver must be at least 26 years old and have at least five years experience driving semi trucks. The supervising driver is also required to have had two years of incident-free driving — no crashes or tickets — before training the new, younger driver.

And it should be noted that there is active opposition to this new rule:

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety shared statistics with CNN from a University of Michigan study indicating a 500% increase in injury crashes for truck drivers younger than 21 compared to truck drivers overall.

Cathy Chase, president of the Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, also objected to the program.

“It makes no sense to put one of the most dangerous driving populations behind the wheel of 80,000 pound rigs,” she said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/business/18-year-old-truck-drivers/index.html

While it might not seem to make much sense to have young drivers of big rigs, it also makes no sense to have nobody driving trucks... so I do get the reasoning behind the rule change.  From a safety standpoint looks like it might not be such a great idea.  Which means we might have to compromise on safety for other pragmatic reasons.

The way the US approaches sensitive intel access needs a complete overhaul from top to bottom.  The access granted to younger people should be a part of that overhaul.

Steve