How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem we have in society isn't the ideas of the left and the right, it's there's not enough good people in the middle to make sure neither of them screw things up too badly.

Steve

Amen.

That’s where the balance point is. Because no one is always right, all the time. But the extremes think they and only they are. All the time, about everything. And that turns into thinking what a great idea it would be to just get rid of everyone else. After all, they are always wrong. At best, put them in re-education camps. At worst…

‘But I don’t believe the majority of people are at the far extremes. However sometimes, just as in lots of other species, people get mesmerized by a charismatic silver-tongued dude with all the answers, and go headlong for the cliff. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Hmmmm. 

[poesel]

15 hours ago, Yet said:

we discussed 500 pages ago that cutting off from Russias gas and oil is an easy task, which hurts our spoiled western relaxed lives. cutting off from literally our consumerism, medical supplies and raw materials for our technologies is a whole other game. Xi can have a lot of illusions as he can push much further than Putin could, because he has more leverage on us. Just to what extend he can use it is unknown to us. as we dont know how much the Chinese culture can suffer before they revolt. but my guesstimation is that they can suffer more than us.

The Chinese can and are ready to suffer more IF there is an economic advantage to it (mostly personal advantage). They are more hardcore capitalists than the commie display may look like.
So, the Chinese government can basically do everything they want, but only if this leads to a perceivable better (economic) future for the common public. Failing that, the public can get very, very angry very, very fast (last seen when they were finally fed up with Covid restrictions).

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm. 

Just the thing I would add with the modified casualty figures.

Why would that info even be on such a paper?

Also I do think the west has some form of a direct presence in Ukraine but this is not evidence for it 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm. 

I am curious if anybody with access to such documents in the past could confirm if it looks real. Lack of signature and code could perhaps points toward fake?

Also the fact that such documents are flying over 4chan posted by angry member and spark international discussion show how crazy world we are living in.

Also nice retouch:

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

59 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am curious if anybody with access to such documents in the past could confirm if it looks real. Lack of signature and code could perhaps points toward fake?

Also the fact that such documents are flying over 4chan posted by angry member and spark international discussion show how crazy world we are living in.

Also nice retouch:

It has fake written all over it. Who needs a daily update on which countries are in Nato? And a daily reminder of the number of SOF in Ukraine...

And the alleged photoshopping of casualty figures is likely only intended to make you believe that the original, "unphotoshopped" figures are true. Russia only lost around 40,000 KIA? I find that hard to believe after a year of total failwar.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Jiggathebauce]

7 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Amen.

That’s where the balance point is. Because no one is always right, all the time. But the extremes think they and only they are. All the time, about everything. And that turns into thinking what a great idea it would be to just get rid of everyone else. After all, they are always wrong. At best, put them in re-education camps. At worst…

‘But I don’t believe the majority of people are at the far extremes. However sometimes, just as in lots of other species, people get mesmerized by a charismatic silver-tongued dude with all the answers, and go headlong for the cliff. 

Centrism is an inherently flawed idea. What's the middle point between one extreme that thinks a certain group is subhuman and should be hunted, and the other "extreme" that wants to treat that group as equal citizens? Centrism is just a lame excuse to side with the side that's most evil while moderating it's tendencies. Gross.

 

Someone brought up the environment. The middle ground, if it has won out on that, is leading to millions of people having to flee their countries from climate change.  The "center" does not apply to many issues unless you're privileged enough to not be personally affected. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Jiggathebauce
Clarity

[Halmbarte]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Hmmmm. 

Who publishes maps using miles outside the US? 

It'd be like trying to submit a scientific paper using pounds and inches. Good luck with that. 

H

Edited April 7, 2023 by Halmbarte

[akd]

An earlier incident at the “T-Pattern”? Or was it subsequently lost again?

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

It has fake written all over it. Who needs a daily update on which countries are in Nato? And a daily reminder of the number of SOF in Ukraine...

And the alleged photoshopping of casualty figures is likely only intended to make you believe that the original, "unphotoshopped" figures are true. Russia only lost around 40,000 KIA? I find that hard to believe after a year of total failwar.

Here's what we know for sure:

1. The US and the Ukrainians who have/had access to these reports are the only ones to know for sure if they are legitimate and/or to the degree they have/haven't been altered prior to uploading to social media.  There is absolutely *no* way for us to assess this one way or the other because we do not know what the founding assumptions for the numbers are.  For example, we have no idea what the Pentagon's methodology is for assessing KIA, therefore we have no idea how to weigh it against open source information.  People trying to make sense of the numbers are "running a fool's errand".
2. Russia itself has absolutely no incentive to publish unaltered documents.  So if these came from Russian intelligence sources, there is no doubt that the starting document has been altered.  There is no way for us to know what elements and to what degree (see #1 above).
3. If the documents are real and were published independently of the Russian government, #1 still applies.  However, there may be different motivations to alter numbers or keep them as found.  There is no way for anybody to assess motivation, so another significant wildcard that can't be accounted for.  Which is why we once again have to return to #1.
4. It is possible that the US or Ukraine released an altered version of some original document in order to throw off the Russians ahead of the big offensive.  I put this at low probability because there's more chance of it causing harm than doing good.  The Russians have their own belief system firmly in place and is unlikely to be altered by this document even if they secured it with their own asset.  Why?  Because Russians are paranoid and they would view anything that conflicts with their own information as suspect of being misdirection by US and/or UKR intelligence.  It is doubtful it would impact Russian thinking or operations one iota.  Therefore, releasing such a document would be all risk with almost no chance of gain.  On the other hand, Russian intelligence isn't as intelligent so they very well might do something that could have unanticipated negative impacts on their own side (e.g. spooking their ground troops even more than they already are).
5. The mass and social media are not responsible enough to cover this story.  For the most part all are assuming the documents are real and that the information contained within is to some degree reflective of how the Pentagon views this war.

Personally... I believe that the document format is superficially real, otherwise the Pentagon would have flat out denied it the second it was posted.  To me the format does seem consistent with the general way information is documented by the US military.  Therefore, at the very least this is either an incredible 100% fraud or it started out life as a real intercept.  Because it went through someone's hands before we saw it, I do not feel we should believe anything in it one way or the other.

Steve

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Halmbarte said:

Who publishes maps using miles outside the US? 

It'd be like trying to submit a scientific paper using pounds and inches. Good luck with that. 

H

You forgot square foot 

I agree, highly suspicious that thing. Would be surprised if it turns out to be legit.

[akd]

Are there Kontakt-1 blocks on this cope cage?  (Note to TC: never, ever unbutton)

 

[Bearstronaut]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

To me the format does seem consistent with the general way information is documented by the US military.  

 

FWIW the US military LOVES Microsoft Office.

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Centrism is an inherently flawed idea. What's the middle point between one extreme that thinks a certain group is subhuman and should be hunted, and the other "extreme" that wants to treat that group as equal citizens? Centrism is just a lame excuse to side with the side that's most evil while moderating it's tendencies. Gross.

The alternative is to let one or the other extreme rule over everything?  Sorry, but there's no historical example of that working out for the better.

49 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Someone brought up the environment. The middle ground, if it has won out on that, is leading to millions of people having to flee their countries from climate change.  The "center" does not apply to many issues unless you're privileged enough to not be personally affected. 

This is absolutely false logic.

The middle is not required to split the difference between what the extreme on one side and the extreme on the other side want.  It can, and often does, select ideas straight from the extremes.  It is there to act with more balanced judgement as to what ideas on the extremes have practical value and then to establish a way to achieve them that is, again, practical.  Extremes inherently are incapable of doing that as they filter everything through ideological "purity tests" which discard anything that conflicts with their core dogma.

Sticking to your climate example, it is possible for the center to determine what really is causing climate change and focus policy and resources on mitigating those aspects while at the same time taking into consideration practicality and unintended consequences.  The extreme environmentalist would blunder ahead without a viable plan, the extreme climate skeptic would shut the whole discussion down from the start.

We can see this with the move away from fossil fuels as a source of electricity.  The environmentalists dream of a day when no fossil fuels are in use at all, yet they have absolutely no plan to make this happen.  If they were put in charge they would either fail to deliver on their goals (because they would screw things up so badly they would be removed from power) or they would become more centrist out of practical necessity.  On the other hand, those that believe fossil fuels are God's will and nobody should question their use will create such problems for the planet that they too would be ousted from power or forced into being more centrist.

This is, in fact, what we are seeing unfold.  The center is becoming more effective at implementing a pro-environmentalist agenda because it has converted extreme climate thinkers into the center at the expense of extreme climate skeptics.

The system is working and making progress towards the goals that the environmentalists seek, yet are inherently incapable of making happen on their own.  The problem is that this process takes time and unfortunately we are running out of time.  Because of that the extreme left is pushing for even more radical environmental policies, the extreme right is pushing just as hard against it.  Neither will solve the crisis without the center's full attention and sound judgement.  Which, sadly, is still "a work in progress".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Are there Kontakt-1 blocks on this cope cage?  (Note to TC: never, ever unbutton)

 

Yeah, looks like it to me.  This is why individual crews and/or units should not be allowed to improvise stuff like this.  They don't have the knowledge necessary to know if it really is a good idea or not.  Another example of why "common sense" is not as simple as it seems.

This reminds me of the edicts that went out to US tankers to *NOT* put concrete all over their vehicles.  It was highly unlikely to offer any real extra protection, but it was likely to cause strain to the powertrain or bog the vehicle.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Thankfully, the responsible media is realizing they got a little ahead of themselves yesterday and are pulling back from accepting the documents as being legitimate as a starting point for their articles.  Here's one I just came upon:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3939019-pentagon-reviewing-secret-nato-documents-circulating-online/

And the referenced NY Times article:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/07/world/russia-ukraine-news

The last bit of The Hill's article summed it up... if Russia really had this information, why would they want the US and Ukraine to know it?  That's so obvious I forgot to put it in my summary above

Steve

[billbindc]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's what we know for sure:

1. The US and the Ukrainians who have/had access to these reports are the only ones to know for sure if they are legitimate and/or to the degree they have/haven't been altered prior to uploading to social media.  There is absolutely *no* way for us to assess this one way or the other because we do not know what the founding assumptions for the numbers are.  For example, we have no idea what the Pentagon's methodology is for assessing KIA, therefore we have no idea how to weigh it against open source information.  People trying to make sense of the numbers are "running a fool's errand".
2. Russia itself has absolutely no incentive to publish unaltered documents.  So if these came from Russian intelligence sources, there is no doubt that the starting document has been altered.  There is no way for us to know what elements and to what degree (see #1 above).
3. If the documents are real and were published independently of the Russian government, #1 still applies.  However, there may be different motivations to alter numbers or keep them as found.  There is no way for anybody to assess motivation, so another significant wildcard that can't be accounted for.  Which is why we once again have to return to #1.
4. It is possible that the US or Ukraine released an altered version of some original document in order to throw off the Russians ahead of the big offensive.  I put this at low probability because there's more chance of it causing harm than doing good.  The Russians have their own belief system firmly in place and is unlikely to be altered by this document even if they secured it with their own asset.  Why?  Because Russians are paranoid and they would view anything that conflicts with their own information as suspect of being misdirection by US and/or UKR intelligence.  It is doubtful it would impact Russian thinking or operations one iota.  Therefore, releasing such a document would be all risk with almost no chance of gain.  On the other hand, Russian intelligence isn't as intelligent so they very well might do something that could have unanticipated negative impacts on their own side (e.g. spooking their ground troops even more than they already are).
5. The mass and social media are not responsible enough to cover this story.  For the most part all are assuming the documents are real and that the information contained within is to some degree reflective of how the Pentagon views this war.

Personally... I believe that the document format is superficially real, otherwise the Pentagon would have flat out denied it the second it was posted.  To me the format does seem consistent with the general way information is documented by the US military.  Therefore, at the very least this is either an incredible 100% fraud or it started out life as a real intercept.  Because it went through someone's hands before we saw it, I do not feel we should believe anything in it one way or the other.

Steve

I would call this a real but stepped on document. The original seems legit enough given the tags and formatting with a lot of the boring information you would expect. There are also obvious changes made to losses that are exactly what you would expect the GRU to botch in that way. I have gone over them pretty thoroughly and I am less than impressed at the intel take. Russia already knows how many HIMARS it has been hit with more or less. It already knows pretty clearly where it is going to be hit and approximately when. It already knows when and where the mud will firm up. There's little in there to show them the most important thing...what the tempo, timing will be.  

If this was really hot stuff, it wouldn't be out there in the wild. Most of the advantages of knowing something strategically important go away when your enemy realizes you do. So...call it moderately effective agit prop. 

PS: it looks like the first version of these docs were on 4chan in early March and somewhere "even dumber" according to a journalist before that.

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by billbindc

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Halmbarte said:

Who publishes maps using miles outside the US? 

The UK?

But the Armies of both still tend to use SI units.

Mind you, air forces tend to be off in their own little worlds, using weird units like furlongs  per fortnight.

Edited April 7, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, JonS said:

furlongs  per fortnight.

Stealing this, also awarding joke of the day!

[Beleg85]

Minecraft Discord channel....or 4Chan, among anonymous guys with Pepe the Frog avatars. Where are old days of spying?

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

It has fake written all over it. Who needs a daily update on which countries are in Nato?

Not current US president at least.

Also, this SF numbers "pax"- are these members or training teams?

Edited April 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Minecraft Discord channel....or 4Chan, among anonymous guys with Pepe the Frog avatars. Where are old days of spying?

 

The poster deleted the Tweet, but did link to a different one:

Look at those folds!  Cute way to try and make it look like it was an original printed document that was smuggled out by hand.  Nice try bub

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also, this SF numbers "pax"- are these members or training teams?

It is highly likely that there are covert NATO personnel (civilian and military) in Ukraine since probably 2014 at a minimum.  They would likely be there to facilitate the gathering and flow of information more than anything, but training trainers is also possible.  Though honestly, with all the overt training going on outside of Europe I don't think that would be a big need.  Operating as military units against Russian forces?  That I very much doubt.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I found this very funny

 

[Splinty]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The poster deleted the Tweet, but did link to a different one:

Look at those folds!  Cute way to try and make it look like it was an original printed document that was smuggled out by hand.  Nice try bub

It is highly likely that there are covert NATO personnel (civilian and military) in Ukraine since probably 2014 at a minimum.  They would likely be there to facilitate the gathering and flow of information more than anything, but training trainers is also possible.  Though honestly, with all the overt training going on outside of Europe I don't think that would be a big need.  Operating as military units against Russian forces?  That I very much doubt.

Steve

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Majors and Colonels hanging around UKR command centers as "observers".

[Beleg85]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is highly likely that there are covert NATO personnel (civilian and military) in Ukraine since probably 2014 at a minimum.  They would likely be there to facilitate the gathering and flow of information more than anything, but training trainers is also possible.  Though honestly, with all the overt training going on outside of Europe I don't think that would be a big need.  Operating as military units against Russian forces?  That I very much doubt.

Steve

Interesting, I would bet on something like protecting US embassy and civilian personnel or like you read making "contacts" work. Also, quite high number of Brits.

The oddest thing in this is that it was hanging there for a month already, in place several investigators descibed as "even sillier than 4chan". Now, what can it be? Strange case.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-data-leak-is-russian-effort-sow-doubt-about-counter-offensive-2023-04-07/

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Minecraft Discord channel....or 4Chan, among anonymous guys with Pepe the Frog avatars. Where are old days of spying?

Not current US president at least.

Also, this SF numbers "pax"- are these members or training teams?

Pax is a short hand for individuals.