How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[SteelRain]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yikes!  That is a good number pulled out of the back of the closet!  Do they even have reliable ammo for them?

When the T-62s first appeared they were seen on railcars.  Some wondered if they were going to be dug in as pillboxes.  Still a possibility for this even thought that didn't seem to happen with the T-62s.

Steve

At fist they were seen on rail cars and as of now, according to Oryx website, 73 T-62's have been lost in Ukraine.

I was under the impression that the Russians scraped their T54 and T55 tanks long ago. Looks like the secret purpose of the patriot parks was uncovered. Having all this old stuff ready and serviced regularly in case things go south.

While watching the videos again, i noticed that the orientation of the tanks differ from video to video. Maybe multiple trainloads are heading to the front line.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Sekai said:

Hehe, Russia bringing out the ol' boys, true display of current state of Russian heavy armor capacity

 

 

 

The fun thing about this is some people were critical of sending Ukraine Leopard 1s because they would not be able to stand up well against Russia's moderns tanks.  Well, not an issue now is it?

Steve

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Apparently Russian commanders don't play CM:

Yes, when you press O for slow you move a lot slower on your tummy. He broke a world record there.

[Battlefront.com]

12 hours ago, Simcoe said:

I apologize if this has been brought up already but I can never find the time to keep up with this thread.

There is a Search feature in this Forum and it works really well.  Punch in Hersh and you will see it's been covered before.  Which shouldn't be a surprise since very little that goes on with this war that hasn't been covered here multiple times already at the time it was relevant.  As in almost two months ago.  Some advice... if you are going to try and derail this thread to further your pro-Russian/anti-West agenda (yeah, your pattern is pretty well established), at least make try to make it relevant to what is being currently discussed.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, SteelRain said:

@The_Capt Do you know what happened to the decommissioned Canadian Leopard 1 tanks?

Monuments or recycled.  I do not know if there are any left in stocks awaiting final disposal; however, getting those operational at this point would likely cost more than purchasing new ones.  Capability wise, the Russians are going back in time, Ukraine is going forward.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukrainian MoD reported attacks by Russian forces have spiked upwards:

After a significant decline, it seems to me that the Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts are likely responsible for most of the increase.  Russia is probably realizing that either they take something now or it's not going to happen because once the weather improves they are going to have to deal with Ukraine's own offensive activities.

Steve

Before we call this a trend we need to see a week's worth.  If we plotted this the trend would still be downward, that 120 is just one day.  Let's see over more days.  And attack is a binary number, on or off, without any weighting for the size of the attacks.

[Simcoe]

13 hours ago, billbindc said:

1. There's zero evidence of any sort that the US did it. Hersh's claims didn't stand up to the lightest scrutiny (i.e. boats were not in service he claimed were involved) and the logic of destroying the pipelines that the US had already caused to be cut off doesn't hold up. 

2. It turned out that the "Ukrainians did it" came from intercepts of Russian comms. Since Russia has had enormous evidence in the last year or so that their comms are compromised, it's not unlikely an attempt to muddy the waters. In addition, it was an oddly professional job yet the folks who supposedly did it then left explosives traces all over the boat they used to do it. 

In the end the motives, means and bad judgement all at this point all look like Moscow or a proxy thereof until we get some legit evidence otherwise. 

Let's say you're right. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline? Can't they just fake technical difficulties and cut off supply instead?

[Simcoe]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is a Search feature in this Forum and it works really well.  Punch in Hersh and you will see it's been covered before.  Which shouldn't be a surprise since very little that goes on with this war that hasn't been covered here multiple times already at the time it was relevant.  As in almost two months ago.  Some advice... if you are going to try and derail this thread to further your pro-Russian/anti-West agenda (yeah, your pattern is pretty well established), at least make try to make it relevant to what is being currently discussed.

Steve

Kind of sad that being even slightly skeptical of the mainstream narrative brands me as pro Russian. I won't bother the "discussion" any further.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Kind of sad that being even slightly skeptical of the mainstream narrative brands me as pro Russian. I won't bother the "discussion" any further.

I think you just had bad timing as a certain person really irritated The Boss (and many of us) by posting a long-debunked trope and then continually doubling down on it.  We don't know who did the pipeline thing, we all have our suspects.  But what Hersh wrote was basically the equivalent of something he heard from a drunk in a bar, it was completely irresponsible.  

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Simcoe said:

Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline?

So they could blame the cut off on someone else? Technical difficulties can be overcome and supply reestablished - which was not the goal this winter. A severed pipeline would take much longer with no immediate timeframe. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by kevinkin

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Let's say you're right. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline? Can't they just fake technical difficulties and cut off supply instead?

It's not that simple as explained here: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/gas-contracts-central-to-nord-stream-pipeline-mystery/

In any case, the motivation to do it would have been complex. In part the above but also to forestall regime elements looking at maneuvering to have talks with the West against Putin (8 major Russian oil executives have died under suspicious circumstances in the the last 13 months). In part to show willingness to kill an economic hostage to communicate political will toward Germany especially. In part to demonstrate the ability to hit other similar targets key to European energy and communications. And lastly of course to create the political furor in which Hersh so willingly allowed himself to be a tool. 

None of those goals is in any way alien to previously observed goals/actions of the Putin regime. Nobody else was that motivated, in that way.

[Simcoe]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think you just had bad timing as a certain person really irritated The Boss (and many of us) by posting a long-debunked trope and then continually doubling down on it.  We don't know who did the pipeline thing, we all have our suspects.  But what Hersh wrote was basically the equivalent of something he heard from a drunk in a bar, it was completely irresponsible.  

Ya I understand. It's hard to separate people that have genuine skepticism of certain points like the pipeline and pro Russian trolls. Probably better to stay out.

[Simcoe]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's not that simple as explained here: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/gas-contracts-central-to-nord-stream-pipeline-mystery/

In any case, the motivation to do it would have been complex. In part the above but also to forestall regime elements looking at maneuvering to have talks with the West against Putin (8 major Russian oil executives have died under suspicious circumstances in the the last 13 months). In part to show willingness to kill an economic hostage to communicate political will toward Germany especially. In part to demonstrate the ability to hit other similar targets key to European energy and communications. And lastly of course to create the political furor in which Hersh so willingly allowed himself to be a tool. 

None of those goals is in any way alien to previously observed goals/actions of the Putin regime. Nobody else was that motivated, in that way.

didnt think about that one. So hard line figures would want to permanently break Russian influence in the West. 

I'm still skeptical but I think that's a valid theory.

[Bulletpoint]

The pipeline was one of the last diplomatic cards that Putin had on hand to put political and economic pressure on Europe.

The explanations I've seen about why he would decide to throw away that card while trying to wage energy war during the winter seem very contrived to me.

That said, I'm waiting for any evidence before making up my mind about it. Some "anonymous source" is not good enough.

[danfrodo]

Summary from my usual UKR news aggregator below.  T55s, as we know, that's fun.  RU attacks ome more apartment buildings, Zelensky visits somewhere near (in?) Bakhmut.  So, the T55s:  either RU is running a really good psyops campaign to make us think they are running out of everything..... or they are running out of everything.  The bad news is that anything w a gun and some armor is a danger to infantry & light armored vehicles, but certainly better to face one of these than a T72 covered in ERA.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/22/2159616/-Ukraine-Update-Welcome-to-1946-Russia-is-sending-in-tanks-designed-for-World-War-II

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

didnt think about that one. So hard line figures would want to permanently break Russian influence in the West. 

I'm still skeptical but I think that's a valid theory.

Not permanently. They left part of Nordstream alone. But when Gazprom and Lukoil execs are dropping like flies from hotel windows (to egregiously mix a metaphor) at the same time, it's not a stretch to assume some regime consolidation is going on. The reasoning would haven't have been just that as I noted above but certainly it seems like Putin had to go to some effort to lock in his oligarchs.  

And remember, your logical approach to the problem isn't the same as a dyed in the wool silovik who cut his teeth in the DDR. He's not crazy...he just starts out from very different assumptions and more or less rationally goes from there.

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The pipeline was one of the last diplomatic cards that Putin had on hand to put political and economic pressure on Europe.

The explanations I've seen about why he would decide to throw away that card while trying to wage energy war during the winter seem very contrived to me.

That said, I'm waiting for any evidence before making up my mind about it. Some "anonymous source" is not good enough.

Compared to the way in which the Putin regime convinced itself that invading Ukraine was a great idea, Nordstream is barely a chip shot. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

Near Bakhmut. I really like this guy. Trolling the Orcs a little.

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Near Bakhmut. I really like this guy. Trolling the Orcs a little.

 

 

 

jeebus, tearing up over that bottom video.  Those soldiers are fighting in the most dangerous place on earth and The President visits them.  I wonder where this was filmed?  How close to the fighting lines?

Though I'd feel better if he didn't stand out like a sore thumb w that black shirt.  

[TheVulture]

Zelensky knows how to do PR. Putin goes to Mariupol, a place that Russia spent months trying to fully capture, now a safe distance behind the front lines. So a few days later Zelensky goes to Bakhmut, which Russia keeps insisting it is about to capture that Ukrainian troops are on the verge of being cut off.

He combines mocking Putin's "bravery" by doing something considerably more dangerous, with demonstrating to everyone that Bakhmut is still securely enough under Ukrainian control that the president can drop in for a visit.

[Grossman]

re the Russian position, They are massively exposed. It's 90km or so to Mariupol and the Azov. Blow the Kerch Bridge and bingo.  The key will be the depth of the penetration to withstand a Russian counter attack. Zhukov understood that at Stalingrad. It will be ugly but the the Russian army to the west will have to capitulate in time. I suspect there would be turmoill in Russia first

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It will be ugly but the the Russian army to the west will have to capitulate in time. I suspect there would be turmoill in Russia first

From your keyboard to Odins's ears 

[Vet 0369]

On 3/17/2023 at 10:51 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I bent down, took one look at it, and thought "nope not going to do the kissing thing, good enough to see it".  It did not look nice!

Steve

When we took my Mother-in law to Ireland (her parents were both Irish immigrants in the 19th century), we visited the Castle. Our 6-year old son wanted to kiss the Blarney Stone, so we let him even though I had my doubts. I took one look at the stone and the fact that it was in a bump-out in the wall with its opening directly over where the moat would have been. That screamed “privy” or “loo” to me, and I decided that the Irish were saying “There’s our revenge on the English!”

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Summary from my usual UKR news aggregator below.  T55s, as we know, that's fun.  RU attacks ome more apartment buildings, Zelensky visits somewhere near (in?) Bakhmut.  So, the T55s:  either RU is running a really good psyops campaign to make us think they are running out of everything..... or they are running out of everything.  The bad news is that anything w a gun and some armor is a danger to infantry & light armored vehicles, but certainly better to face one of these than a T72 covered in ERA.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/22/2159616/-Ukraine-Update-Welcome-to-1946-Russia-is-sending-in-tanks-designed-for-World-War-II

Some of these T-55 might be younger than the T-72 and might still be in a good shape.  Soviets kept the T-55 production running until 1981. The newly produced T-55s were sent to Far east military district to buildup the strength of catalog D divisions. Due to the catalog D divisions’ low combat readiness, these T-55s were barely used even on the training ground. I won’t surprise if they have good engine hours left and are in good condition.