How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Yuriy Orichak, squadron commander, 39th separate helicopter regiment (Dzhankoi airfield, occupied Crimea) of 27th mixed aviation division of 4th AF/AD Army, Southern military district. Probably died in crash of Ka-52 on 16th of March 2023 - the helicopter cought powerline wires near Starobesheve, Donetsk oblast. Crew was lost.  

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Homo_Ferricus]

34 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://m.jpost.com/international/article-734917/amp

Biggest head to fall in Moscow so far.

Zolotov is long time Putin most inner circle guy. Trusted guy with long long history.

He is not powerful himself like Shoigu but Putins lapdog.

 

Did you read that article? There's nothing going on with Zolotov. He's the one who relieved Major General Vadim Dragomiretsky, who is some guy in the central district whom Zolotov relieved after Dragomiretsky was accused of taking bribes.

[Haiduk]

About exploitation of "Orlans" from Russian milblogger

One brigade in the beginning of SVO had 8 "Orlans". 4 were shot down by friendly fire, 3 were lost because of mistakes of pilots, 1 was shot down by Ukrainians. Then two new UAVs came, but they are kept

From other hand our soldier from Kreminna dirction writes, Russians attacked them intensively and have superirity in different drones including commercial Mavics, which almost continuosly hang in the air and ajust mortar fire. Though, they have several anti-drone rifles (but need mauch more), so they can keep most of Mavics on distance or enemy often lose its, when approach too close.

[Haiduk]

Attack of UKR suicide drone with PG-7 HEAT projectile in Maryinka. Most inetersting a birdeye view on slagheap, which looks like Egyptian pyramid )

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

First video of "Crotale" work. UKR crew fires at Russian cruise missile. The first missile missed, but the second hit the target 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Loclas write they heard 7-9 explosions and sounds of guns (Pantsyr S1 work). At this time no exact information where was directed this strike. Some locals write they heard and seen explosions on railway station (Dzankoi is a large railway node), other write they heard explosions in airfield area.  

This is the first very deep strike we've seen in a while.  And it appears a significant one at that.  I think we will see more of these attacks now that the weather is improving and Ukraine is likely going on the offensive.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

As witnessed by GoPro Cameras. The stress must be tremendous.

 

[Haiduk]

Some news for past day about Bakhmut...

Some moth....rs advanced closer in direction of town center from individual houses outskirts, but these are not numerous groups. But we kicked their heads on the north and south - there we have turned back positions.

.... And Avdiivka

Russian source

 

He says that information about "cauldron" around Avdiivka, shared today in some Russian media is not true and even on the contray - they lost control over Pervomaiske village (in red circle on the map). Also soldiers told to him, they have a lack of personnel.

In real they never controlled Pervomaiske on 100 %, there was contested area in eastern part of village  and 59th mot.inf. brigade two days ago just eliminated this grey zone, pushing enemy back to Pisky

  

Press-secreter of UKR MoD Hanna Maliar told today who command the defense of Bakhmut:

Directly in the town: commander of 93rd mech.brigade colonel Pavlo Palisa and comamnder of 3rd National Guard brigade "Spartan" colonel Oleksandr Pivnenko

Over all Bakmut direction: brigade general Andriy Hnatov (on the photo). Former comamnder of 36th Marines brigade (2018-2021), then was in HQ of Operative Command "South"

Frontline of Donetsk oblast: colonel-general Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ground Forces, commander of Operative-Strategic Groupment of Troops (OSGT) "Khortytsia" (wartime name of Operative Command "East")

Also part of sector on Donbas commands brigade general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of OSGT "Tavria"

Edited March 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

 

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery has struck repairing base in Pokrovka village (Kinburn spit). UAV targeting of 15th artillery recon brigade 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Small clarification of this news. N.Macedonia claimed about these four Su-25 as far as in summer, but only now they were delivered to Ukriane. Its former Ukrianian Su-25, which we handed over to Macedonia, when they fought with Albanian separatist. Since that time these planes weren't in use and had poor maintenance. As result they were recognized as uncapable for flights and will be sourse of spare parts.

 

[Battlefront.com]

23 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Interview Ukrainian Artillery.

Good video!  Lots of things to see from this.  The most important is this particular gun seems to be set up to be an on-call sniper for infantry.  Bunker looks solid, even has a properly ventilated heater.  Looks like they have their ammo stored in its own bunker.  Some of the ammo crates had 2022 production stamps, which explains why a D-30 still has something to shoot.  Although these guys were no doubt on their best behavior for the press, the unit appears to run a tight and tidy operation.

JonS, I'm curious to know what you see from this video.  Being that you know a thing or three about this sort of thing.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Lot of artillery men seems were teachers in civilian life. From previous videos there was a math teacher and here one is an ex-physics teacher. They know how to pick them. Three is drie like in Dutch find it also interesting to understand a few words of this Slavic language. Armata related to armed? Here it is cannon according to the subtitle.

Edited March 21, 2023 by chuckdyke

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/20/world/russia-ukraine-xi-putin-news#a-chinese-summary-of-the-meeting-between-xi-and-putin-did-not-suggest-any-breakthroughs

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met face-to-face on Monday in Moscow, where Mr. Xi hailed the two nations as “good neighbors and reliable partners” during a state visit that has been closely watched by Kyiv and its Western allies.

 

So far Xi seems to be giving maximum moral support without publicly announcing arms deliveries. Xi may or may not be planning to make those arms deliveries  without an announcement, thoughts?

 

[kevinkin]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-03-20/u-s-intel-helped-india-rout-china-in-2022-border-clash-sources

India was able to repel a Chinese military incursion in contested border territory in the high Himalayas late last year due to unprecedented intelligence-sharing with the U.S. military, U.S. News has learned, an act that caught China’s People’s Liberation Army forces off-guard, enraged Beijing and appears to have forced the Chinese Communist Party to reconsider its approach to land grabs along its borders.

Another kernel of info. India holds a few interesting cards in all this given their imports of Russian oil are way up. Oh, and they have a bomb too. (138 to 213 nuclear warheads) India could be seen as indirectly providing funds to buy Chinese ammo. 

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-03-20/u-s-intel-helped-india-rout-china-in-2022-border-clash-sources

India was able to repel a Chinese military incursion in contested border territory in the high Himalayas late last year due to unprecedented intelligence-sharing with the U.S. military, U.S. News has learned, an act that caught China’s People’s Liberation Army forces off-guard, enraged Beijing and appears to have forced the Chinese Communist Party to reconsider its approach to land grabs along its borders.

Another kernel of info. India holds a few interesting cards in all this given their imports of Russian oil are way up. Oh, and they have a bomb too. (138 to 213 nuclear warheads) India could be seen as indirectly providing funds to buy Chinese ammo. 

India has been on the edge of being a critical player in world political games for some time now.  It's been interesting to see that China would put that at risk by a seemingly minor land grab.

If this is all accurate information, it could be a sign that the US has developed a new geopolitical strategy of tipping off countries before a rival pounces on them.  That is a win-win for the US because either way it screws up the rival's plans and potentially makes the would-be victim a little more interested in a tight relationship with the US.

Steve

[JonS]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

JonS, I'm curious to know what you see from this video.  Being that you know a thing or three about this sort of thing.

My overall impression is of a disciplined and competent unit. Everyone was clean^, and actions were carried out deliberately and without stress or haste. Everyone appeared calm and relaxed (except that one guy), and they were all comfortable with each other – some banter, but a lot of pretty frank comments about how they’re feeling. The new guys seemed a little stiff, but that’s probably to be expected.

The fact they had some new guys was interesting in itself. Why are the new guys needed - casualties? Promotion? Courses? Relief for leave periods? Siphoning off some experience to raise a new battery?

A lot of the guys seemed pretty old, and kind of chubby? I guess that’s to be expected with mass mobilisation.

Overall this was a very tidy gun position with no trash or dunnage to be seen which is a sign of good discipline, and also an fairly comfortable looking position which is a sign of good morale.

They are carrying personal weapons at all times, which struck me as odd. Could be for the cameras, or could be because of the local ground threat.

I think they’re using encrypted radios? The blerp at the start of each transmission is a bit of a give-away. That’s not super surprising, other than that encrypted radios are not available COTS.

From a specifically gunnery perspective, they were firing at a very low trajectory, and with a time of flight of 29 seconds, which implies they were firing at around 10km (29 seconds time of flight, firing Charge 1 so probably around 300 m/s). But that’s a hearty guess since I don’t know the specifics of the gun/round/charge combos for the D-30. Low trajectory is good practice since it makes it harder for the enemy to sense any outgoing rounds.

The battery was set up in a woodland, which was unusual since it severely restricts your traverse - you can’t just bang a round away in any direction since it’ll probably slam into a tree a few 10s of metres away and really ruin your day. Given a static front that kind of makes sense – “all our targets are in a narrow arc in that direction” - but it does mean that this battery can’t really support any units to the flanks of the one it’s been assigned to.

It looked like they were using time fuses, although again I’m not really familiar with Russian ammunition. There was a shot where a guy was fiddling with a tool on the nose of the round at around 6:39, and the tool he’s using appears to have calibration marks on it. On Western ammo that’s the kind of thing you’d use to set the time fuze length^^, whereas switching between PD and Delay is a simple screwdriver turn between two positions and would be a completely different fuse (you can turn a time fuze into a PD fuse by zeroing the timer, but they usually don’t also have a Delay setting. Also, time fuzes are relatively rare, so you’d only use them when air burst was called for.)

It seems they are concerned about counter battery (CB) fire, since they moved into a shelter immediately after the mission, but not THAT concerned since they’ve been in the same positions for several months. There also didn’t appear to be much ground churn (from incoming rounds) but that could be due to fresh recent snow covering any wounds to the ground since there also didn’t appear to be many random tracks about the place. Mind you, that – the lack of tracks - could alternately be due to really good discipline and morale, and the guys really sticking to the track plan. Or discipline + fresh snow.

I didn’t see any evidence of vehicles – either trucks dug in or hiding under cam nets, or vehicle tracks anywhere. That implies the battery isn’t moving anytime soon, and also that the guys are having to hump ammo in from some distance away. It also implies that they – or rather their higher command – are confident that the Russians will not be breaking in or through anywhere nearby anytime soon. Raids; yes – they specifically talk about that. But no movement of the FEBA.

Given they’ve been there for a couple of months, I would expect that they have a very long list of pre-registered targets, which greatly reduces (effectively eliminates) the need to adjust before going to fire for effect (FFE).

Although only one gun was show I would expect that there was a whole battery (probably 4 guns) hidden in the trees thereabouts, although probably very dispersed. I think that because the battery commander was there, and the command post (CP) looked fairly substantial for something that was only controlling a single gun. I am assuming here that the film crew walked between the gun they filmed at, and the underground battery CP and the underground CB shelter. If, on the other hand, they drove between CP and the gun then all bets are off, but I think driving is unlikely given the radios being used – those small handhelds don’t have great ranges, especially in trees.

All the round detonations you hear are of single rounds. That suggests that this gun could indeed be a pistol gun off on it’s lonesome away from the rest of the battery, OR that they are engaging a very small or point target like an isolated building, OR in response to a very local probe. But given the weather – bright sun, middle of the day – I’d be a bit surprised if the Russians were up and moving about with small numbers of light infantry, so my guess would either be a destruction mission on a building or the like, or they’re doing a technical shoot to figure out exactly what the weather conditions are doing to the flight of the rounds right now. Those technical shoots are important since it means that engaging any targets off the pre-registered list can go to FFE immediately, which decreases the response time from ~5-10 mins to ~1min including time of flight. That would also explain the generally unhurried and relaxed attitude of the guys – when a battery is firing in support of friendly forces in contact there is a certain ... tenseness, which is absent here.

Jon

^ that could also be because they tidied up the house, washed and had haircuts before visitors came over. But I don’t think it’s just that – you can tell a soldier to go have a wash, but that wouldn’t explain the calmness.

^^ although the fuzes I’m used to have the time setting marks on the fuze itself, rather than the adjusting tool, so … ?

Edited March 21, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/20/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-moscow-ukraine-war

A picture worth 1000 PGMs. 

I know it's for show, but this relationship is a little too cheeky for me. Xi didn't have to accept a state visit - but he did. Maybe Vlad fears leaving Russia and/or using electronic comms. 

[Battlefront.com]

Thanks!  Great to have your opinion on this.  I was very favorably impressed, but since I lack first hand experience I can only draw on other videos I've seen and a general sense of how soldiers interact.

Some things I noted when I watched that answer some of your questions a bit:

1. They said they had 30 guys there and lost 2, so the new guys might be their replacements.  If so, that means they're keeping the unit full strength (if 30 is full) or at least to some minimum (if 30 is under).  The replacements sound like they started training in December, so they received about 2-3 months of training.
2. One guy mentioned that they keep someone awake on the radio at night so they can respond to a call within 2-3 minutes.  But he also said they need to keep guys outside to guard against "diversion" attacks.  Which is definitely something the Russians love to attempt, so it seems very prudent to always have their small arms handy.
3. When the crew went under cover they said if Russia responded it could take up to 10-15 minutes, so they go underground and wait it out.  They also said that response can come right away or none at all.
4. The guy manning the radio for the battery commander said he is normally a driver, but as the unit is static he doesn't drive much (resupply missions, likely) so he makes himself useful.  Another sign of a disciplined unit.
5. They mentioned at the time that recently there's not much Russian counter battery fire, but a while ago they had "8 straight days" of heavy fire.  They speculated the absence of activity before then was due to Ukraine striking an ammo dump, then the 8 days of fire coming from a new source, and now they are out of ammo for the moment.

A specific example of the tidy unit position was the guy that used a stick to pick up the (hot) spent casing to get it out of the way.  I've noticed a lot of sloppy piles of casings around the breach in many videos, for both sides, since the start of the war.  Granted these guys are firing single shots so it's easy to keep up with the casings, I should think if the unit was lazy this is exactly the time for seeing them pile up.  "Yeah, I'll get that later" attitude.

The odd thing about this is these guys have been repeatedly shelled by CBA, yet they've been deployed to the area for 3 months and their positions look like they could be that old.  So why haven't the Russians figured out how to strike them yet?  They joked about how the Russians guns have crooked barrels because their fire is so ineffective.

Steve

P.S.  I also expect this unit cleaned up a bit for their visitor.  The biggest thing is they probably got brand new snow camo right before hand.  Most of that kit was right out of the factory bag that morning by the looks of it.

[JonS]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They said they had 30 guys there and lost 2, so the new guys might be their replacements.  If so, that means they're keeping the unit full strength

Yeah, I caught that, but I got the sense he was talking about a grouping that wasnt the battery. Like, maybe his high school class, or the platoon he went through basic training with.

30 guys is nowhere near enough for a battery - a battery is more like the equivalent of a company in terms of manpower, so 80-130 blokes. Wait .. 4 guns. Ok, 60-80 blokes.

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an important first... the EU has agreed to purchase 1m artillery rounds for Ukraine instead of cobbling together individual orders from individual member nations.  Such a "bulk purchase" has never been made before by the EU:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-seals-deal-send-ukraine-1-million-ammo-rounds-shells-war/

Steve

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The odd thing about this is these guys have been repeatedly shelled by CBA, yet they've been deployed to the area for 3 months and their positions look like they could be that old.  So why haven't the Russians figured out how to strike them yet?  They joked about how the Russians guns have crooked barrels because their fire is so ineffective.

That probably says a few things about the Russians besides crooked barrels:

- Limited real-time drone observation capability that would let them make corrections, even with crooked barrels

- Limited or no armed drones with remote control and cameras on them and a sufficient charge to take out a gun (switchblade 600 equivalent) or even quadcopters to drop a few grenades down the ammo storage hole.

- No CB radar.  I've been suspecting that their CB radar might have low enough SNR that they can't track single incoming rounds effectively.  So that combined with flat trajectories and probably having few radars anyway means they don't have to worry about that.  But with crooked barrels, they wouldn't be able to hit without a spotter giving corrections.

ETA: The guy also made some cryptic comments about the fuzes not working on the ice reliably.  I kind of wonder if they're using proximity fuses and either the low trajectory or reflection off the ice isn't giving them enough return and that's why they were putting on a VT.

Edited March 21, 2023 by chrisl

[danfrodo]

Dang, JonS knows things

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, I caught that, but I got the sense he was talking about a grouping that wasnt the battery. Like, maybe his high school class, or the platoon he went through basic training with.

Ah yes!  You're correct.  Now I remember misunderstanding that at the time, got straightened out by the end of his comments, and then of course promptly forgot my new gained information

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

30 guys is nowhere near enough for a battery - a battery is more like the equivalent of a company in terms of manpower, so 80-130 blokes. Wait .. 4 guns. Ok, 60-80 blokes.

Yeah, I was thinking it was just for the HQ + Gun, but obviously not relevant as that wasn't what he was talking about.

Steve

[sross112]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A Russian Mil Blogger perspective:

https://en.topwar.ru/213007-iz-kitaja-s-ljubovju-perspektivy-postavok-v-zonu-svo-tjazhelyh-vooruzhenij-iz-knr.html

As with much of what I've found on this site, and with other better informed Russian pro-war sources, the author pretty accurately sums up the basic situation; China has a difficult choice to make because either way it gains and loses.  He also made it clear that China is out for itself and can not be relied upon by anybody, as it will switch strategies the minute it feels it isn't working for them.

His conclusion (surprise surprise) is that Russia is more valuable to China than the Western aligned countries, therefore China is going to provide Russia with a large amount of stuff.  He then lists all the potential stuff and reasonably rules out large swaths of it for various practical reasons.  However, the stuff he thinks of as possible would violate what he himself thinks China might do, which is to try and covertly supply Russia.  So his list of possibilities is overly optimistic if he applies his own logic to it.

Interesting to note that the comments section seems to think the author is wrong and that Russia is not as valuable to China as he thinks.  Which means Russia won't get meaningful support.

 

On a side note, I find it so amusing that the RU Nats can talk about the need for China to supply the Russian military in order for it to succeed.  I've listened to RU Nats for decades talk about how it has the military might to take on the entire world if it chose to.  And yet, apparently it can't even take on a bunch of backwards, racially inferior "little brothers" who are being armed with Cold War era equipment.

That point apparently just zips by them.

Steve

 

Xi needs to ask himself if Russia is worth more to China and its goals dead or alive. The thinking a year and a half ago was definitely on the alive side. Russia brought a lot to the table for their shared goals. Since that time their military has been shown to not be a threat even to a single country 1/3 of its size. Its political clout and credibility has been shattered. If some of the experts are right, by the end of the year its economy will collapse and especially its fossil fuel infrastructure will struggle to produce anywhere near what it has. So what "advantage" does Russia give China from here on out, at least for the next 10-20 years? 

If the goal is for China to become THE world leader then this visit needs to be the beginning of political positioning. Siding with Russia and trying to help or save them would degrade China's position. Looking like they forced an end to hostilities where the west couldn't improves their position. The only way an "alive" Russia benefits China is if Putin agrees to cease hostilities, withdraw to the 2014 borders and start making amends with the world. Putin is not going to agree to that. It is suicide, probably literally, for him if he does. 

If Putin refuses that, what is the best end state of Russia for China? Dead. Broken up and non-threatening. A China with an independent Yakutsk and Siberia with military guarantees for their security in exchange for access to their mineral and oil resources gives them the "gas station" that they need without the ball and chain of Russia dragging them down. China is very good at expanding infrastructure quickly and would be able to develop a lot of energy and resource independence in a short time. 

From the Guardian picture that was linked by Dan, Putin doesn't look overjoyed by whatever Xi had to say. 

Right now if China goes to war they have to go to war with someone that doesn't have the ability to sustain blue water naval operations in the Indian Ocean. I believe over 80% of their oil is imported from the Persian Gulf area so it doesn't take much to choke them out. You cut the oil and you cut everything; military, agriculture, economy, energy, everything. That would be pretty catastrophic really quick. So China needs to have a 3 day war with Taiwan or it needs energy independence. Ukraine has foiled the 3 day war concept so if China ever wants to take back what they think is theirs they need that independence. 

With all that being said, I don't see China going all in to support Russia. It just doesn't make sense for them. All in is the only thing that would possibly save Russia from being defeated at this point and it does more harm to China than good. It doesn't really help them on the world stage at all and does nothing to improve their territorial or political desires. I'm betting that Xi has promised to help with uniforms, kit, small arms, rations and maybe ammunition at most. Enough to keep the appearance of a supporting friend but it will all be done through intermediaries like Kazakhstan. This meeting isn't going to give Putin what he wants or needs.