How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Taranis said:

 

 

So this is a bad idea but not in the way it is being presented.  AT mines do not come with the fuses in them.  Last thing anyone wants it to lose an entire mine dump because of a faulty fuse.  So those are inert lumps of explosives in steel casings.  It is a bad idea not because of a risk of explosion but denting the casing and damaging the explosives inside.  This could lead to a partial detonation or it being messed up and not taking out the vehicle like you want it to.  Or you could damage the fuze wells and wind up not being able to arm the thing.  

[Lethaface]

40 minutes ago, Taranis said:

 

 

As I understand it those mines are harmless pieces of material until you insert the denotator part. (edit already explained by theCapth with actual RL knowledge :D)

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[JonS]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this is a bad idea but not in the way it is being presented.

Aye. Compare that video with, for example, these trucks:

http://www.historyofwar.org/Pictures/pictures_landing_ammo_anzio.html

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Roman Osechkin. Unit unknown. Necromancer pointed he is former chief of meteoservice of 56th air-assault brigade, but on this photo he has tank signs on shoulder-straps and red stripes of ground forces. Data of death unknown. 

Major Yevgeniy Filev, 112th separate helicopter regiment (Cheryomushki airfield, Chita oblast), 11th AF/AD army, Eastern military district. Lost in Mi-8AMTSh crash on territory of Belarus on 4th Apr 2022. Second crewman captain Timur Kipchatov also didn't survive

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure he wasn't being ironic?  I count four guys in that hole, Russian tank crews are 3, so possibly remnants of several vehicles. 

I haven’t had time to check the video- do they look like hipsters?

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

I haven’t had time to check the video- do they look like hipsters?

Yup, they even got mud on their faces.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Here is example how the post of one of many Russian losses can uncover whole story

 Major Vasiliy Muren'kiy (left photo, on right photo his brother, who was killed together with him), 11th separate engineer-sapper brigade, Southern military district. Was kileld on 24th Feb 2022 near Chaplynka, Kherson oblast.

Column of pontoons and vehcile with HE moved to Nova Kakhovka to establish bridge through the Dnieper if UKR forces damage the dam bridge. Also they had a task to blow a gate, which close canal of water supply to Crimea. Column was bombed and shelled with rockets by the pair of UKR Su-25. The truck with HE charges was hit and exploded, eliminating almost all column. Video with remains of this column was issued several days ago by Russian milblogger. In this attack at least 12 Russian servicemen were killed, about two dozens of different engineer vehciles were destroyed or damaged. During this attack UKR Su-25 was shot down by a missile. Pilot, lt.colonel, squadron commader Oleksandr Zhybrov, probably directed own falling plane down to enemy column and even had time to eject, but altitude was too low - he died.

Moment of Su-25 attack, the jet hit and falling - it's seen how pilot ejected

Destroyed Russian column - video of next day

Video of Russian blogger

Crashsite of UKR Su-25 #19, 299th tactical aviation brigade

Lt.colonel Oleksandr Zhybrov

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Here is example how the post of one of many Russian losses can uncover whole story

 Major Vasiliy Muren'kiy (left photo, on right photo his brother, who was killed together with him), 11th separate engineer-sapper brigade, Southern military district. Was kileld on 24th Feb 2022 near Chaplynka, Kherson oblast.

Column of pontoons and vehcile with HE moved to Nova Kakhovka to establish bridge through the Dnieper if UKR forces damage the dam bridge. Also they had a task to blow a gate, which close canal of water supply to Crimea. Column was bombed and shelled with rockets by the pair of UKR Su-25. The truck with HE charges was hit and exploded, eliminating almost all column. Video with remains of this column was issued several days ago by Russian milblogger. In this attack at least 12 Russian servicemen were killed, about two dozens of different engineer vehciles were destroyed or damaged. During this attack UKR Su-25 was shot down by a missile. Pilot, lt.colonel, squadron commader Oleksandr Zhybrov, probably directed own falling plane down to enemy column and even had time to eject, but altitude was too low - he died.

Moment of Su-25 attack, the jet hit and falling - it's seen how pilot ejected

Destroyed Russian column - video of next day

Video of Russian blogger

Crashsite of UKR Su-25 #19, 299th tactical aviation brigade

Lt.colonel Oleksandr Zhybrov

So:

1. Water for Crimea appears to major concern

2. That is an incredible amount of military engineering hardware they will not get back.

3.  Air strikes still working but AD clearly still effective - but also obviously not entirely.

This must have been a special air mission likely picked up by operational ISR, that target was too sweet to miss.

[Fenris]

Always interesting to see the pieces put together to paint a bigger picture.  Wish LC Zhybrov had survived.  Reminds one of the price Ukraine is paying.

 

 

[Beleg85]

Vladlen Tatarsky ranting again. Contract soldiers and cadres are being spent long time ago, now they send mobiks to the assaults (sometimes against their will and under false promises they will be spared). Also confirm that various theoretical artillery units are de facto assault infantry now.

[benpark]

I like to try to match the video position on-map to better follow along with the more telling videos. Not a lot of defining features in the background of that column video, but this is the area. It looks to be a berm. The bridge with a gate the column was headed for is just north of Nova Kakhovka, over the river and marshy, marshy, marshy terrain. It also looks to be flat in the surrounding areas. That looks to be the case far and wide around these parts.

I wouldn't think moving in the open around here is very relaxing, which the column found out.

Edited March 1, 2023 by benpark

[FancyCat]

 

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This must have been a special air mission likely picked up by operational ISR, that target was too sweet to miss.

It could be also just desperate "free hunting" attack. In first day likely all roads from Crimea toward Kherson, Nova Kakhovka, Melitopol were full of enemy columns. 

I've read a post of officer of one brigade, which had to cover the south. He told on eve of war all senior officer staff had a briefing with Operative Command "South" commander, were they got different tasks for "manuevers" - legended operation of borders covering, started about for two weeks before 24th Feb. But when officers became to ask comamnder more detailed, he answered them "keep calm, this is just Russian blackmail there will be no war". So, on 23th of Feb most OC "South" troops were concentrated in Oleshky desert and forestry area around, where they continued trainings. So, Russian stream just easy brokethrough weak screens on the border, and got operative space. This officer also told he hopes that chief of engineer service of OC "South" shot himself, because no one charge didn't blow up under bridges from Crimea. Only one bridge was partially destroyed by a cost of life of marine, who activeted the charge.

On other hand, concentration of troops far from isthmus, saved them from  first devastate strike and they could engage enemy in Oleshky and in Kherson bridge area.

But anyway, collapse of southern direction in Day 1 will be the theme of loud showdowns after the war especially from side of Poroshenko followers, who agressively claimed Zelenskiy had secret agreements with Russia in Oman (pure conspircay) and as if according to it, he gave the order to demine bridges ftom Crimea and to remove most of defense lines.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Here is example how the post of one of many Russian losses can uncover whole story

 Major Vasiliy Muren'kiy (left photo, on right photo his brother, who was killed together with him), 11th separate engineer-sapper brigade, Southern military district. Was kileld on 24th Feb 2022 near Chaplynka, Kherson oblast.

Column of pontoons and vehcile with HE moved to Nova Kakhovka to establish bridge through the Dnieper if UKR forces damage the dam bridge. Also they had a task to blow a gate, which close canal of water supply to Crimea. Column was bombed and shelled with rockets by the pair of UKR Su-25. The truck with HE charges was hit and exploded, eliminating almost all column. Video with remains of this column was issued several days ago by Russian milblogger. In this attack at least 12 Russian servicemen were killed, about two dozens of different engineer vehciles were destroyed or damaged. During this attack UKR Su-25 was shot down by a missile. Pilot, lt.colonel, squadron commader Oleksandr Zhybrov, probably directed own falling plane down to enemy column and even had time to eject, but altitude was too low - he died.

Moment of Su-25 attack, the jet hit and falling - it's seen how pilot ejected

Destroyed Russian column - video of next day

Video of Russian blogger

Crashsite of UKR Su-25 #19, 299th tactical aviation brigade

Lt.colonel Oleksandr Zhybrov

I remember part of that footage from the start of the war.
Who knows what Oleksandr (and the other Su-25 pilot) did  manage to prevent by their sacrifice/efforts. Whatever it was, a show of defiance against the aggressor at the outbreak of war.
Outnumbered, outgunned,  whatever; he went for it all in. I guess occurrences like these (across all branches) made the difference in the early days. I don't really know what to say about such things but they impress a fellow human being. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Vladlen Tatarsky ranting again. Contract soldiers and cadres are being spent long time ago, now they send mobiks to the assaults (sometimes against their will and under false promises they will be spared). Also confirm that various theoretical artillery units are de facto assault infantry now.

I will clarify, Tatarskiy tells about DPR 1st Corps, not about Russian army. Though, he drmatized enough. Despite DPR troops became to replenish own forces with Russian mobics and even convicts, they kept enough cadre troops, especially company/battalion level comamnders, which have big motivation and experience

Edited March 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, benpark said:

I like to try to match the video position on-map to better follow along with the more telling videos. Not a lot of defining features in the background of that column video, but this is the area. It looks to be a berm. The bridge with a gate the column was headed for is just north of Nova Kakhovka, over the river and marshy, marshy, marshy terrain. It also looks to be flat in the surrounding areas. That looks to be the case far and wide around these parts.

I wouldn't think moving in the open around here is very relaxing, which the column found out.

More exact place of column attack - 15 km from Chaplynka to Nova Kakhovka direction.

[chuckdyke]

This video shows what a drone can see with thermal imaging. Instead of feral animals imagine an infantrymen with equipment thirty years out of date. I posted this of the quality of the video.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 2/28/2023 at 8:09 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, where do you see that in this dataset?

...Unless 40 somethings are 'young' to you?

LOL, “Forty something’s” to me are just out of puberty! 

[riptides]

Man of steel.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1630828391627644928?t=x8pXdvQYsNMUrN1O0ruRhg&s=19

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by riptides

[Vet 0369]

On 2/28/2023 at 11:07 AM, Lethaface said:

Not that I even know what Koolaid tastes like so I might be missing something ;-).

For all those who don’t know what the original U.S. term “drinking the koolaid”  means, it is in reference to followers of a Cult Leader obeying the Leader’s requests no matter the consequences. It was coined in the last century when a Cult Leader named Jim Jones convinced his followers in Jonestown to commit suicide by drinking poison in the sweet drink known as Koolaid or Kool-aid (I don’t remember the correct name). If I remember correctly, about 300 followers died.

[Harmon Rabb]

Interesting.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting.

Serbia?  I thought they were pro russia?  I guess not.  I gotta keep up. 

[BlackMoria]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Serbia?  I thought they were pro russia?  I guess not.  I gotta keep up. 

They are pro russian.  But isn't it interesting how money make loyalties "fluid".  Particularly for companies and businesses.

[hcrof]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Serbia?  I thought they were pro russia?  I guess not.  I gotta keep up. 

I believe their government wants to join the EU for the sweet, sweet free money (and I guess they see the writing on the wall re: Russia) but there is still a lot of pro Russia/anti NATO history to get over first...

[danfrodo]

This is not exactly UKR current war, but certainly could be in a year or so.  Only 1:44 long video.  At 48 seconds in some weird looking vehicles crest a ridge..... HOLY F THERE'S STRYKERS W JAVELIN LAUNCHERS & THE 30mm CANNON TURRET SYSTEM.  OMFG!!!!  Mobiks will want no part of this s--t!  

I just gave notice at my job of 22 years for a crazy new job and was thinking I needed a present to reward myself for being brave.  How do I get this game??

Edited March 1, 2023 by danfrodo