How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't know, but somebody ought to be trying to find out. If the answer is not many, move heaven and esrth to get everybody in the lead brigades latest generation stuff, an do this in the dark. The Bradleys and the PT-91s are good on this obviously. Can the Ukrainians train up to do this in the dark? FAST ENOUGH?  I am as ra ra on them s it is possible to be, but it is harder, and it does take more practice.

 

 

IR can see through smoke.  If the UA forces are well equipped with IR sights and the RA isn't, then they can lay a ton of smoke right in front of the RA lines (less smoke covers more angle) and leave a bunch of vehicles with IR sights on overwatch to pick off RA vehicles that come out from cover while "concealed" by smoke to take shots. If the RA is reasonably well equipped with IR (unlikely) then it's pretty risky for the UA.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

IR can see through smoke.  If the UA forces are well equipped with IR sights and the RA isn't, then they can lay a ton of smoke right in front of the RA lines (less smoke covers more angle) and leave a bunch of vehicles with IR sights on overwatch to pick off RA vehicles that come out from cover while "concealed" by smoke to take shots. If the RA is reasonably well equipped with IR (unlikely) then it's pretty risky for the UA.

100% agree. Ukraine should be very actively trying to find out exactly what the blown up and abandoned stuff outside of Marinka and Vuhledar was equipped with. Seems reasonable to assume the stuff defending Melitipol won't be better. But i woud try hard to verify.

Edited March 1, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Annoyingly cut up, but stuff went boom. The harder question is how does Ukraine do it better. I mean they will do it better, but they have to advance over the same pan flat fields. Against people that might occasionally be minimally competent, they will almost certainly be numerous, with artillery and ATGMs. The Russians sure as bleep lay mines by the hundreds ofmetric tons. The Ukrainians are going to have to do real breaching operations.

Bleep me. I sound like LLF...

Well if the past is any indication, the UA will lead with Light Inf and SOF, heavy on unmannned systems support, to do infiltration first, those are huge frontages on that Jomini of the West map and not a lot of RA troops to cover them.  Find your opponents quickly, and hit them hit precision artillery.  At the same time operational ISR is illuminating in depth and they conduct a deep strike campaign on RA artillery, C4ISR and logistics.

Minefield are going to be a challenge but there are ways through them.  Have not seen any real discussion on explosive breaching or even mechanical breaching support.  The UA is going to be needing assault engineering to break through those belts, but the lighter infantry and SOF will likely find or make gaps first.  This may drive back observation and cover fire on those minefields, which makes breaching a lot easier.

And then once you get enough forward moment, and corroded the RA - while pinning them down elsewhere, you go for manoeuvre and try for a breakout.  Nothing easy about any of this but that is the order of the day to break the back of the RA.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/opinion/ukraine-war-biden-russia.html

 

Quote

 

That’s why it makes no sense for the administration to slow-roll arms deliveries to Ukraine or drop heavy hints that Ukraine is unlikely ever to retake Crimea. Biden’s goal for 2023 should be clear and direct: victory for Ukraine. He can accomplish it through the rapid delivery of game-changing military equipment combined with a diplomatic offensive in which we propose Ukrainian membership in NATO if Russia doesn’t withdraw. Maybe that could even give Putin his off-ramp for surrender.

After a year of war, I’m more confident than ever that Biden will make the right choice. That’s more than can be said for Macron, Scholz and the other pale shadows of what passes for statesmanship in the free world.

 

Exactly right! and he isn't my my favorite writer on a lot of things, but this is 100%

[kevinkin]

 

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Nothing easy about any of this but that is the order of the day to break the back of the RA.

Not only minefields, but some of the ground is so littered with shell holes and other impediments to movement that it's a engineer's nightmare. Those planning attack lanes may have to take this into account. We all know that minefields and other blocks have to be covered by fire to be effective. This is definitely a case where only recon pull would work. And each attempt to find suitable mobility will be a battle unto it self. CM will simulate this very well. The UA best troops will have to lead the effort while at the operational level, all measures need to be deployed to distract the RA at the POA. I am breaking out in a cold sweat just thinking about the effort even against green troops. Then the UA will have to determine if any break-ins are real or intentionally allowed.  

[chuckdyke]

Something we can all agree on. He better put his own house in order first.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

16 hours ago, hcrof said:

I am sure they will do the same to supply Crimea so unless Ukraine wants to starve the whole place out while bombing civilians I am concerned that "choking them out" will be a difficult process. 

The circumstances differ though. While the UKR were extremely keen on protecting civilian life and property in Kherson (too keen I think; failing to engage RUS withdrawing beyond the Dnieper had very bad consequences down the line in purely military terms) there are very few friendlies remaining in the Crimea. As long as the targets can be justified as legal, I think the Ukrainians would attack

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not only minefields, but some of the ground is so littered with shell holes and other impediments to movement that it's a engineer's nightmare.

I doubt there are many real deep shell holes like in WW1... Unless I'm mistaken, most modern artillery is fuzed to explode before burrowing into the ground, so won't leave big holes.

[Holien]

48 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

... there are very few friendlies remaining in the Crimea. 

Hmmm not sure how you can make such an assertion with any certainty. 

 

[Lethaface]

16 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

So, taking The_Capt's excellent advice about step one, these are bunch of zoomed in maps and street view photos along the road that Jomni's map calls the m18, and Googe seems to call the E-105. Because nothing could ever be easy. Free terrain analysis, what worth you paid. It is unbelievably flat, the distance between meaningful tree lines seems on the order of one kilometer +/- and the single densest tree lines seem to be on both sides of the E105 itself. 

So lets say you have a couple of what I assume Ukraines better mechaized brigades are going to look like for the spring offensive. Each brigade has a battalion of bradley's, and a battalion of PT-91s filled out with Ukraines usual mix of post soviet stuff MRAPS, and HUMVEEs. The Russians are dug  similarly to what they were were in Kherson, but with a much lower average troop quality. Because the better troops they got out of Kherson are dying in Kreminna and Bakmuht as I type. How do you cross a kilometer wide pan flat field with the lowest casualties, so that you can cross the one behind that tree line too.

The one thing I keep coming up with is something we have seen very little of in this war. Heavy and effective use of artillery delivered smoke.  Put the Bradleys on overwatch, and roll out what ever you are clearing mines with, followed by the  PT-91s, with MRAPS closing up behind, as soon as you you have lanes cleared close enough to defenses for the infantry to be useful. Tell me where I have it wrong? Not that you gentlemen are ever shy about that. Yes I am assuming they wait until the ground is really dry, can't figure out how to even attempt this otherwise.

While I love smoke in CM I guess it is quite hard to organize effectively with large formations because the smoke doesn't last that long (while the same barrels could be firing HE). Plus drones can see over the smoke and direct/correct (artillery) fires behind it.

I guess the answer to your question is what we have seen before when UA launched offensives.
If the RA has on call artillery with enough ammo on hand and communications with those in the trenches or OPs, that's what's going to cause lots of casualties. As will tanks/AFVs/ATGMs with LOF on the advancing formations. 

So first HIMARS the logistics and HQs, excalibur the AFVs and strongpoints while continuously barraging the forward and rear fighting positions/trenches. When the defense has stopped being an effective fighting force, press the attack and insert your last paragraph.

Of course that's the ideal situation. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[Huba]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Minefield are going to be a challenge but there are ways through them.  Have not seen any real discussion on explosive breaching or even mechanical breaching support.  The UA is going to be needing assault engineering to break through those belts, but the lighter infantry and SOF will likely find or make gaps first.  This may drive back observation and cover fire on those minefields, which makes breaching a lot easier.

Germany pledged to provide quite a bit of minefield breaching equipment recently, including remotely controlled mine ploughs:
https://www.defenceleaders.com/news/germany-delivers-ukraine-4-minenraumpanzer-mirpz-keiler-mine-clearing-armored-vehicles
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/clearing-the-way-mine-ploughs-for-ukraine/

Edited March 1, 2023 by Huba

[Lethaface]

The reports from Bakhmut not looking too bright, but at the same time several thinktanks/etc have been expecting for a while that Ukraine might not be able to hold on to Bakhmut. 

I was thinking whether it could be that Ukraine is setting up a trap? As in UKR actually retreats from Bakhmut and let it looks like a chaotic mess / rout and lure in the Russians to overextend themselves. 

Then close the jaws and strike at both flanks in the rear, trapping the advancing forces and cutting them off. 

Now this is very speculative and perhaps much too rosy, but I'm sure Ukraine is planning something and probably they won't try the exact same trick they tried with Charkiv/Kherson. I mean even the Russians won't fall for that one again, right? But they might fall for other traps.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[holoween]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The reports from Bakhmut not looking too bright, but at the same time several thinktanks/etc have been expecting for a while that Ukraine might not be able to hold on to Bakhmut. 

I was thinking whether it could be that Ukraine is setting up a trap? As in UKR actually retreats from Bakhmut and let it looks like a chaotic mess / rout and lure in the Russians to overextend themselves. 

Then close the jaws and strike at both flanks in the rear, trapping the advancing forces and cutting them off. 

Now this is very speculative and perhaps much too rosy, but I'm sure Ukraine is planning something and probably they won't try the exact same trick they tried with Charkiv/Kerhson. I mean even the Russians won't fall for that one again, right? But they might fall for other traps.

If we were to give credit to the russian army they might have planned their offensive to end with the spring mud to inhibit ukrainian counteroffensives.

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, holoween said:

If we were to give credit to the russian army they might have planned their offensive to end with the spring mud to inhibit ukrainian counteroffensives.

If Bakhmut culminates into such a situation they've been planning on that for quite a while lol. With meteorology not being an exact science it would indeed be quite a feat.

Anyhow the mud can indeed be a (large) factor for any Ukraine (couner)offensives. 

It would be great if Bakhmut can hold, or Ukraine being able to counter attack and undo all the gains it has brought. But even if they have to give up Bakhmut without immediate counters, I guess they still have been able to contain the Russian offensives for a long time. Which probably has value in and of itself, for Ukraine (although at a cost, but who knows what the cost of not containing the offensive would have been).
And even with Bakhmut Donetsk province and thus Donbass as a whole isn't yet fully taken, so I guess too early for Putin to roll out the 'Mission Accomplished' flag. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[poesel]

CEO of Rheinmetall claims that two Skynex systems are already in Ukraine.

At about 11:00 (audio only in German)

https://www.thepioneer.de/originals/thepioneer-briefing-economy-edition/podcasts/rheinmetall-ceo-armin-papperger-ueber-krieg-und-frieden

That is this system:

 

Son of Gepard

Would love to see an in action video.

[LongLeftFlank]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is true, I think, that an excess of young males over females is considered a historically bad thing.  Whether it be nationally or in one's own home   And historically I think there is merit to the argument that excess males influences a tribe or state to become expansionist.  Especially in the days of hunter gatherers and feudal Europe.  Unhappy young males who aren't getting laid or having the means for upward mobility absolutely were major pressures.

This is not generally applicable to complex modern states, but I think in some environments it can still be an issue (especially when states are at their core tribal).  However, it's irrelevant to Russia.  Putin is waging war on Ukraine for reasons of pure power, though demographics does come into play because...

Putin's government has acknowledged this and determined it is a threat to national security, therefore the state has attempted to change the equation by incentivizing increased births through bribery.  What he has not done is try to make young Russians hopeful about the future, which understandably is a big part of the decision to have children.  In fact, you hear from ex-pat Russians that they explicitly removed their young children from Russia in order for them to grow up in a better environment.

Taking over Ukraine was no doubt a part of Putin's strategy to increase the white, Christian population within Russia.  The blatant kidnapping of Ukrainian children proves this.  Therefore, it is also probable that he has deliberately targeted the fast growing non-white, potentially non-Christian areas of Russia for disproportional sacrifice on the battlefield.  However, this is not about excess males.  If Putin could I am sure he would like to reduce the male population well below that of female.

No, it changes way more than that.  Those surplus young men are more likely to serve in Russia's crappy military environment.  Removing them means he now has to incentivize family orientated men to become long term contractors.  This requires things like adequate base housing and services for children, something the Russians have been loath to do because it's expensive.  Therefore, reducing single males with nothing better to do with their lives than sign up for the Russian military is not a good thing.

Aside from that, there is the problem of Russia's aging workforce.  Those surplus males are needed to keep Russia's economy growing, or at least declining slower.  Removing them from the workforce is a bad idea.

Finally, I doubt Putin is thinking about the additional negatives that come from large numbers of mentally and/or physically traumatized males left on their own to sort things out.  Especially if they connect the dots to realize that the government is directly responsible for their trauma through incompetence and poor leadership.  PTSD is a serious problem even under the most optimal circumstances, and there's nothing optimal about this in Russia.

Steve

 

Thanks, Steve, for actually addressing my intended subject matter, as opposed to whatever whacked out 'Incel' / Beach Blanket Bingo theory of warmongering other luminaries here seem to have glommed onto.

Can Russian society as a whole, and its resource rich / population poor regions specifically, bear current and anticipated losses?  As you say, what happens when too many journeyman pipefitters get killed or maimed?  How do they back and fill? (Migrants? Chinese?)

What's happening in the minds right now of plain folks in Pskov, rock-ribbbed forest home of the 76th VDV (dark red on the death map, go figure)?  Adjacent to the Baltic states, contact with relatives across the border (who now increasingly identify with their new countries and with Europe, especially now they see what the Rodina has in mind for them).

Nobody really knows the 'breaking point', or just what that 'breaking' means in practice, but the Home Front -- Will as @The_Capt hath taught us -- is fairly central to this 'War of Choice'. 

And it isn't just Putin's will here, or those in the Moscow Beltway or the Petersburg mafiya, et al.

....Everyone agrees the USSR hit such an inflection point in Afghanistan, intermixed with their wider systemic crisis. Their withdrawal surprised the Western intel establishment.

And that's worth discussing.

Edited March 1, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

13 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Scrounging for tanks in Europe

__________

“The trend across the board in European armies has been cutting, cutting, cutting,” said Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But at the end of the day, many were on the same track as Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.”

Ulrike Franke, a defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the struggle to find tank numbers raises questions as to where else European militaries face similar shortages and maintenance problems.

“Is it just bad luck that Spain has an issue with their Leopard tanks, but everything else works?” she said. “Or do they have the same issues elsewhere?”

“Does 10% of their equipment not work, or is it 50%?” Franke asked. “It would be a good idea for Europeans to look at this more closely.”

__________

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scrounging-tanks-ukraine-europes-armies-193032025.html

Interesting if the NATO forces have a hidden hollowing out like the AFRF but for different mentalities (unrealistic cost curing v. systemic corruption). 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting if the NATO forces have a hidden hollowing out like the AFRF but for different mentalities (unrealistic cost curing v. systemic corruption). 

Oh it is not so hidden, but nobody seemed to really care.  Other than some nasty terrorist and some screwed up countries that are always screwed up, most westerners were not thinking about conventional warfare at all in the last 30 years.  The few times we did get into a conventional fight it was against tethered goats like Iraq and over in days.

So western democracies gutted defence spending over time.  In fact most of the hubbub over NATO and 2% was less about collective deterrence and more about economic gains in defence industries (“jobs!”).  So here we are, again, playing catch-up and scrambling.  Problem is now that we are not even sure what we should be scrambling for, governments want to look strong on defence while militaries are trying to figure out what that means.

And the news media was absolutely no help.  They polarized and really just told target audiences what they want to hear, as opposed to any real analysis of the situation.  So people retreated into their echo chambers, and most are still in them. Add to all this the worst pandemic in a century where western society went legally insane for about 3 years and we are here in 2023 trying to figure out a conventional war that has brought us all closer to the brink.

Meanwhile in East Palestine Ohio…

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/02/multiple-federal-agencies-supporting-east-palestine-contrary-to-partisan-claims/

 

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I doubt there are many real deep shell holes like in WW1... Unless I'm mistaken, most modern artillery is fuzed to explode before burrowing into the ground, so won't leave big holes.

The photos I have seen show lots of holes all over open fields. How deep, I don't know. But most of the videos show AFV on or near roads. Maybe due to mud these days. 

 

[FancyCat]

Interestingly, the brigade has its own recon/drone section now. Very interesting interview, strongly suggest reading it.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Russians upping their game? (2 posts) 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/he-also-is-a-bit-dodgy-about-me-using-c4-to-boil-water/

In our AO, with the heavier Russian push and more capable troops in-play, we have to look at some things carefully. There is not much you can do per a more capable enemy, except be more careful, make sure you have solid support in place, and carry a heavier weapon and ammo load, usually meaning more grenades.

Jamming is an ongoing issue... Russians have moved a substantial quantity of EWS equipment into our area. It was obvious that some systems were already in-play, and with my rig I can detect the Zhitel system by its characteristic emissions, so I know it was working the area.... We mainly use (satellite–ed.) phones. We do carry a radio, but rarely use it unless we are under heavy jamming.

Air attacks are increasing. We have had that discussion, and if we can find one, plan to take a Stinger with us next time out, assuming someone will carry it.

We have cancelled several [missions], or rerouted to a different area. We are pretty good at getting through their lines at night, but if they have enough depth, it becomes just too risky.

At one point firefights were not that usual for us – by design – now they are becoming the norm. We have less space to operate in per bad guy population.... our chances of being whacked by a mine is a lot higher than enemy gunfire or artillery.... We try to use the terrain resources to plan our formations so we can react as needed, but this is hit-or-miss.

....I'm rooting for UV, but the way he describes things going, it feels like his luck could run out soon.

One constant I'm noticing in much of the tactical reporting: movement is risky, riskier than it's ever been in the history of warfare. (Staying put, of course, can also be risky).

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russians upping their game? (2 posts) 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/he-also-is-a-bit-dodgy-about-me-using-c4-to-boil-water/

In our AO, with the heavier Russian push and more capable troops in-play, we have to look at some things carefully. There is not much you can do per a more capable enemy, except be more careful, make sure you have solid support in place, and carry a heavier weapon and ammo load, usually meaning more grenades.

Jamming is an ongoing issue... Russians have moved a substantial quantity of EWS equipment into our area. It was obvious that some systems were already in-play, and with my rig I can detect the Zhitel system by its characteristic emissions, so I know it was working the area.... We mainly use (satellite–ed.) phones. We do carry a radio, but rarely use it unless we are under heavy jamming.

Air attacks are increasing. We have had that discussion, and if we can find one, plan to take a Stinger with us next time out, assuming someone will carry it.

We have cancelled several [missions], or rerouted to a different area. We are pretty good at getting through their lines at night, but if they have enough depth, it becomes just too risky.

At one point firefights were not that usual for us – by design – now they are becoming the norm. We have less space to operate in per bad guy population.... our chances of being whacked by a mine is a lot higher than enemy gunfire or artillery.... We try to use the terrain resources to plan our formations so we can react as needed, but this is hit-or-miss.

....I'm rooting for UV, but the way he describes things going, it feels like his luck could run out soon.

One constant I'm noticing in much of the tactical reporting: movement is risky, riskier than it's ever been in the history of warfare. (Staying put, of course, can also be risky).

So this guy is an EW specialist too?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this guy is an EW specialist too?

Yeah, I think I'd prefer "Ukraine Volunteer" not be cited here until there's ample proof he's legit.  We all remember the creative writing from Canadian Volunteer (or whatever his Twitter handle was) that we wrestled with for a while before being outed as a fraud.

Steve

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this guy is an EW specialist too?

Exactly.

Note to fans...if it's too good to be true then it probably isn't what it says it is or it is outright fabrication/fanfic. Big warning signs: topicality, breadth of knowledge, etc. 

[kevinkin]

In Putin's backyard - sort of maybe. But a strategic"crossroads" to keep in mind. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/28/blinken-in-central-asia-to-boost-ties-amid-ukraine-war?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

And while Uzbekistan and Tajikistan assisted the US logistically during its 20-year conflict in Afghanistan, following the US withdrawal in 2021, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan agreed to coordinate a joint action with Russia.

China also wields substantial financial influence over the region through its Belt and Road Initiative and major lending.