How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Perhaps a repost here, but this is a pretty interesting interaction between Wagner PMC and Russian Regulars. According to the commenter below, they weren't mincing words.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/115xw6c/wagner_group_pmc_soldiers_and_the_russian_army/?ref=share&ref_source=embed&utm_content=title&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_name=8dafb3e8617645afb5967c3ec20cc0a4&utm_source=embedly&utm_term=115xw6c

 

Thanks for that!  The Wagner guys do seem pissed.  There must be a washer AND a dryer in that house behind them and they don't want the regulars taking it.

Note that I edited your post to display a link in order to avoid Reddit's annoying autoplay feature.  When you post a Reddit link you'll see an option popup in a line just above the standard "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." box.  Click on "Display as a link instead".

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[sross112]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Xi hoped the Russian attack on Ukraine would cause the Western Alliance to completely fail. If it had he would quite likely be holding a parade in Taipei as we speak. Instead he has has to evaluate not just what he would pay for Taiwan, but the possibility he could lose most of his Navy, and still not get it.  I don't think he wants to join Putin on the list of fools who thought they were launching "a short victorious war", and wound up with an extended stay in a yellow jacket nest instead.

When you really look at it, China is almost as big of a loser as Russia. Yep, Russia is paying the blood price, but the changes brought about by the war really hurt China in the sense of losing strategic options or advantages they had or could have capitalized on a year ago. Just making the world laser focused on autocratic aggression puts everything they do now under a large microscope. Add to that the production increases of the western nations that take a lot of time to spin up that are now in motion. Even the actual tactical lessons learned or reminded (arty ammo needed) from the battles on the ground. Think of how much the west should be gleaning from everything and already getting the wheels in motion for the next generation of warfare when China, although probably ahead of Russia, is not totally caught up to where the west was before the first shot was fired. 

Also has to be a lot of talk among the leadership of every smaller country around China about how apparently wars of aggression aren't a thing of the past. We will probably see strengthening of militaries and maybe even more robust alliances around China. 

If this was a master plan by China and Russia to draw US forces out of the Pacific and into Europe to contain a newly vitalized and threatening Russian bear, then it failed. Russia has degraded itself to the point where the US could pull everything they have out of Europe and Russia still isn't a true threat with what is left of their army. This "proxy" war has actually freed up US assets and for the next generation allows it to focus more on the Pacific than it could have otherwise. The longer it goes on and the more Russia emasculates itself the more negatively China is affected as well.

Will China supply Russia? I'd be surprised if they aren't selling small arms and all sorts of old ammo along with other non-lethal stuff to Russia. Anything bigger I really doubt. Xi is pushing for resolution as none of this helps them in the long run so I can't see them doing more than making a quick profit while they can.

Overall, if there was a plan between China and Russia, I'm pretty sure it has been an epic fail.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW report made this observation/prediction regarding Russian plans for Bakhmut:

Quote

The concentration of milblogger claims regarding Russian efforts in northern Bakhmut compared to the relative silence regarding operations west of Bakhmut along the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway may suggest that Russian forces have given up on trying to encircle Bakhmut and are instead focusing on fighting into Bakhmut from the north. This effort is likely to be exceedingly costly and slow, given the dense urban environment and Ukrainian fortification systems within Bakhmut. The Russians may resume efforts to encircle Bakhmut in the coming days or weeks, however.

Certainly easier to smash a single hook, so hopefully Ukraine can continue to hold onto Bakhmut and inflict even more pain.

Ukraine had some success in counter attacks in the north (Svatove-Kreminna) and south (Avdiivka), though Russians gained a little in both areas as well.

ISW also noted that the quality of units moving into the Zaporizhia front are staffed by poor quality standing units, volunteers, and burnouts.  This is what they did in Luhansk.  Which does reinforce our prediction that we're going to see some sort of Ukrainian offensive in the area either in the Spring or (more likely) Summer.

Steve

[sburke]

poor Putin, nothing seems to go his way.

Putin wanted to boast about Russia launching a nuclear-capable ICBM — but the launch failed so he couldn't, report says (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely planned to boast about a nuclear-missile test in his Tuesday State of the Nation address, but the launch failed, CNN reported, citing two US officials.

The Kremlin tipped off the US in advance about the planned test launch using deconfliction channels, one of the unnamed officials told the outlet.

But the test of Russia's Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile — which has been successfully test-launched in the past — appears to have failed this time, the officials said, per CNN.

 

 

[MikeyD]

That (Rupert Murdoch owned) WSJ article claiming the Ukraine war is actually a war with China is, to put it kindly, balderdash. Since day one of this war the 'think tank' types have been crying "But... but... but... What about CHINA?!!!" They had mapped out this decade's 'enemy' and are finding it mighty inconvenient that a pesky ground war with Russia is spoiling things.

[_Morpheus_]

Defence of the Okhtyrka by 91st Operational Support Regiment from 24.02.2022.
Amazing video with a lot of details: 91st Operational Support Regiment don't have any armor actually and successfully destroying armoured columns.
It showcase one more time, that nobody should trust russians: after air attack on military barracks, they attack medical unit after short period of time like real terrorists.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I see red armbands, which is consistent with LPR troops from the time period.  To me it looks like two of them on the top lip of the small slope.  The quality is crap and I don't speak Ukrainian. but to me it looked like one guy got wounded while trying to surrender and then the second one got killed and rolled down the slope?  I'm a bit confused by it all

Steve

Video is really has bad quality and too hard indentify uniform, but this is definetly Ukrainians. They speak in Russian, but on 1:33 one soldier asks in Ukrainian "De nashi?" ("Were are ours?"). Also soldier, who came to them at the end of video has green armband. The guy, who rolled from the hill obviously still alive - he moves after rolling. 

Original writimg over the video says "UKR soldiers are ambushed by Wagners", but in comments users have opinion this is not Bakhmut area

[chuckdyke]

Guess who next falls out of the window.

 

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Defence of the Okhtyrka by 91st Operational Support Regiment

Recently it was 91st engineer-sapper regiment. By strange decision of MoD, since 2004-2010 and after 2020 engineer, NBC-protection, EW, military topographic service and meteoservice were united under Support Forces Command. And if NBC, EW saved own specialization in names, that engineer units became "operative support regiments/brigades" 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

New series of "Two in the trench"

Part 3 

Part 4 

In part 4 we can hear his radio chat, he calls "Alex" and says they are almost emty, no grenades left and ask him either he can cover them, in prder they can withdraw. Asks when reinforcements will arrive, because they soon can't hold position. Alex says, BMP is coming as reinforcement, but he doubt he can cover, because afraid to hit them, because enemy to close to the trench.

Original video in better quality you can find on TG of this fighter: https://t.me/lost_generation_21/

From logo on part 4 we can see Predator is serviceman of 22nd motorized infantry battlion of 92ns mech.brigade, so this fight from Svatove direction

Predator also showed own rifle

AK-74. Upgraded almost completely, but I will change many of this stuff further and changes will be posted for you. 

Modernization Fab Defence (Israel)

Red dot sight Holosan 

Impact buffer also is mounted, that reduces recoil and increases rate of fire. Muzzle brake compensator, sound moderator and flame suppressor of "Strela" company.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

Video of a failed HIMARS missile. A bit into the video it shows the missile path through the roof, 3 levels and down into the cellar!

 

[poesel]

Medvedev talks about Russia falling apart if they don't win the SMO. I could not find the original source, but have it from other media, too.

That is an interesting statement to make. It makes sense if your people actually don't want that to happen. But not a very good argument if they don't.

 

[Beleg85]

Very interesting thread about small unit tactics:

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Video of a failed HIMARS missile. A bit into the video it shows the missile path through the roof, 3 levels and down into the cellar!

 

Are HIMARS rockets really strong enough to penetrate several layers of concrete? I thought they were quite thin walled and optimised for explosive effect.

[Beleg85]

And this, about chinese visit in Moscow:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Just found this footage from Kherson offensive: 
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/10muegb/ru_pov_a_single_russian_t72b3_with_artillery/

"The tank crew of a Russian T-72B3 from the 124th Independent Tank Battalion part of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division engages two Ukrainian motorized companies supported with a platoon of T-72M tanks moving in parallel with one another. This took place near the village of Kostromka.

Interesting to note that one of the Ukrainian crews of a YPR-765, out of panic and disorganization, begin shooting at their friendly column of BMPs moving in parallel with them.

The footage shows the Russian tank taking out 3 YPR-765 vehicles, 2 BMPs as well as a direct hit on a T-72M. Another 3 Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed in this engagement after the video ends. Afterwards, the Russian tank drove off to safety, leaving the battlefield."

I remember a shorter clip of the complete clusterflock at the hedgerow opening when the artillery zeroed in, ISTR it was a few months ago.

This one is essential viewing for CMers IMHO. Long continuous shots and pans are priceless; too many jump cuts to the big booms make many 'Level 5' vids incomprehensible.

Take a look at the 'map' size too.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting thread about small unit tactics:

 

This is what I've also read,and has been noted by Haiduk et al. 

Notably:

16/17 In the areas where these mistakes were avoided, units performed greatly. While the Ukrainian army improved a lot, it's not always possible to turn a colonel or a general with 30 years of soviet-style experience into a NATO-like commander by performing a 3-month course.

This might be explain why when I look at videos of UKR officers in Western training I see relatively few over 30s. They seem to be sending the newer, "fresher" minds to NATO for early and clean training in Western approaches, the older guys are already engaged at the front and why try to train an old dog in new tricks? 

After those Western trained officers hit the front line this late spring/summer they will disperse throughout the force, supplanting the older Btt level cadre and accelerating the transformation of the ZSU. 

Wagner et al will doubtless adapt,  but the Russian MoD simply won't.  There's nothing in the intellectual bank except tactical variations. This is all we've seen. The higher level RUS command are still making the exact same mistakes as D1. 

The current offensive is shaping up very like their other assaults -  too many disparate axis that disperse their schwerpunkt with incoherent coordination and loss of pressure at critical points. They consistently plan big but think small,  dreaming up large scale encirclments then jumping from local opportuniy to opportunity to grind forward by map inches. 

It seems the Soviet mindset is embedded like a tick in the AFRF,  and for that the ZSU should be grateful as it is their one true and immutable strategic advantage. 

The ZSU corrosive, resilient strategy functions at all three levels and expands its own effects as it progresses. The approach requires an entirely different mentality to the Soviet Wow,  which is why we see inconsistencies in UKR successes (due to existing officers not "getting it") but also why we see steadily building successes in particular veins as newer officers push into positions of effect. 

Unfortunately it implies that this year will be a builder year for 2024,  when the ZSU will have purged, lost or moved on enough of the old mindset to truly transform at a operational level. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Kinophile

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Take a look at the 'map' size too.

They stole my CMBS map. Nice video. 

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Xi hoped the Russian attack on Ukraine would cause the Western Alliance to completely fail. If it had he would quite likely be holding a parade in Taipei as we speak. Instead he has has to evaluate not just what he would pay for Taiwan, but the possibility he could lose most of his Navy, and still not get it.  I don't think he wants to join Putin on the list of fools who thought they were launching "a short victorious war", and wound up with an extended stay in a yellow jacket nest instead.

A month ago I was saying this but it's clear now that there are very strong forces in Chinese government that are set on confrontation. Whether they made the balloon incident occur or if they simply took advantage of it, their approach is clearly ascendant. We should keep our power dry.

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

This is what I've also read,and has been noted by Haiduk et al. 

Notably:

16/17 In the areas where these mistakes were avoided, units performed greatly. While the Ukrainian army improved a lot, it's not always possible to turn a colonel or a general with 30 years of soviet-style experience into a NATO-like commander by performing a 3-month course.

This might be explain why when I look at videos of UKR officers in Western training I see relatively few over 30s. They seem to be sending the newer, "fresher" minds to NATO for early and clean training in Western approaches, the older guys are already engaged at the front and why try to train an old dog in new tricks? 

After those Western trained officers hit the front line this late spring/summer they will disperse throughout the force, supplanting the older Btt level cadre and accelerating the transformation of the ZSU. 

Wagner et al will doubtless adapt,  but the Russian MoD simply won't.  There's nothing in the intellectual bank except tactical variations. This is all we've seen. The higher level RUS command are still making the exact same mistakes as D1. 

The current offensive is shaping up very like their other assaults -  too many disparate axis that disperse their schwerpunkt with incoherent coordination and loss of pressure at critical points. They consistently plan big but think small,  dreaming up large scale encirclments then jumping from local opportuniy to opportunity to grind forward by map inches. 

It seems the Soviet mindset is embedded like a tick in the AFRF,  and for that the ZSU should be grateful as it is their one true and immutable strategic advantage. 

The ZSU corrosive, resilient strategy functions at all three levels and expands its own effects as it progresses. The approach requires an entirely different mentality to the Soviet Wow,  which is why we see inconsistencies in UKR successes (due to existing officers not "getting it") but also why we see steadily building successes in particular veins as newer officers push into positions of effect. 

Unfortunately it implies that this year will be a builder year for 2024,  when the ZSU will have purged, lost or moved on enough of the old mindset to truly transform at a operational level. 

Of course this makes the somewhat biased assumption that NATO commanders know how to fight this war any better.  In fact in many ways fighting this war employing NATO doctrine would be worse and likely lead to operational cul de sacs.  I am not sure mission command is always appropriate or effective in this sort of environment. 

[hcrof]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A month ago I was saying this but it's clear now that there are very strong forces in Chinese government that are set on confrontation. Whether they made the balloon incident occur or if they simply took advantage of it, their approach is clearly ascendant. We should keep our power dry.

There are also forces in China which are for cooperation. They have not yet commited to helping Russia (see the post above about the Chinese visit to Moscow) or invading Taiwan. 

I agree we should be prepared but keeping our powder dry also means not pressuring China into a confrontation ourselves. Just like in the cold war, direct conflict is not inevitable. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

That is an interesting statement to make. It makes sense if your people actually don't want that to happen. But not a very good argument if they don't.

Yes, it is a dangerous thing to introduce into Russian propaganda, domestic or foreign.  When things are going badly, telling the truth is more likely to be harmful than helpful

Far left/right thinking (the sort of thing that gets us autocratic states) requires two elements to survive:

1.  A threat to the well being of the people, often switching back and forth between domestic and foreign

2. Portraying the threat as existential to the extent that radical measures are necessary

Russia has insisted for quite some time now that the threat of NATO (generally), homosexuals, satanists, Nazis, etc. are aligning to destroy Russia as a state and as a culture.  However, generally speaking autocratic states tend to be very vague on what they mean by destruction, instead focusing people's attention on the solutions (aka "the struggle").  This is by design.  The more they understand the costs and risks, the more likely they will question the specifics of the struggle.  Worst of all question the need for the struggle itself.

It seems that Medvedev might have missed a memo about this

There is a time and a place to start talking about Götterdämmerung (the last phase of a losing struggle), such as when enemy forces are at the ruined gates of destroyed home cities.  However, pulling out this line of thinking when the average Russian's life doesn't seem to be wildly affected?  I don't think that's a good idea.  Therefore, I doubt we'll see Mevedev's comments echoed in the propaganda channels.  Yet.

Steve

[keas66]

Off topic I guess - but I'm kind of curious as to folks opinions  about the actual abilities of the Chinese Armed Forces  if they really decided to  start something . Their last major engagement was with Vietnam  in the late 1970's and that didn't go so well for them as I recall  . How are they going to go when they kick off something major in the  here and now ?

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Off topic I guess - but I'm kind of curious as to folks opinions  about the actual abilities of the Chinese Armed Forces  if they really decided to  start something . Their last major engagement was with Vietnam  in the late 1970's and that didn't go so well for them as I recall  . How are they going to go when they kick off something major in the  here and now ?

We've had this discussion a number of times, superficially of course, and I think the consensus is that Chinese forces would probably function better than Russian, but would show many of the same shortcomings both in terms of equipment and use of it.  My personal guess is that corruption is far less of a factor for the Chinese than the Russians, which matters because it was/is a big reason for Russia's failures.

But we really don't know.  As you pointed out, China has not engaged in any significant military conflict in decades.  Further, the equipment that the PLA has that is different than Russia's hasn't seen widespread use by third parties either.  With Russia we had recent conflicts that showed us hints of both how the Russians might fight and how well its equipment worked.  As a result it was much easier to make predictions about Russia's invasion of Ukraine compared to China's invasion of Taiwan (or any other place).

Steve