How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

52 minutes ago, sross112 said:

The first one that comes to mind is Korea.

Given South Korea has been in a state of war with the North since the 50's, they have probably accumulated enough bullets and shell and even higher tech stuff in part via their own manufacturing. But I can't be 100% sure. Would a conflict last a year given the role US/South Korean airpower would have?  I don't know but that's a logistics test case and deserves a closer look for comparisons to Ukraine's readiness. It's as if the US has has more respect for North Korea's capabilities  than Russia's. 

WSJ Headline: China’s Xi Jinping Plans Russia Visit as Putin Wages War in Ukraine
Chinese leader is expected to use Moscow trip to push for multiparty peace talks

Edited February 21, 2023 by kevinkin

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

This is totally possible, especially if UKR gets missiles to the cut the Crimea bridges.

“How long, oh Lord, how long” -Psalm 13

[Jiggathebauce]

48 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Really starting to notice that anything that shows UKR in bad light or losing is downvoted to oblivion on the most popular sites. Even if the footage is just from a Russian POV it gets downvoted. /r/UkraineRussiaReport/ is a pretty good counter to this.

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/

Important to be able to find and study footage of the non favorites to see what's going wrong with the preferred side in engagements. 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Important to be able to find and study footage of the non favorites to see what's going wrong with the preferred side in engagements. 

Yes, exactly.  And the video (can't watch it until later) sounds like it showed what I've suspected since the Kherson offensive started... Ukraine's ability to conduct coordinated mechanized attacks was somewhere between not universally bad and definitely not universally good.  And against Russia's best forces manning well prepared defensive lines, universally good is what they needed.

The very slow pace of advances in that offensive sure did hint at Ukraine having significant difficulties conducting offensive operations.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Just found this footage from Kherson offensive: 
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/10muegb/ru_pov_a_single_russian_t72b3_with_artillery/

"The tank crew of a Russian T-72B3 from the 124th Independent Tank Battalion part of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division engages two Ukrainian motorized companies supported with a platoon of T-72M tanks moving in parallel with one another. This took place near the village of Kostromka.

Interesting to note that one of the Ukrainian crews of a YPR-765, out of panic and disorganization, begin shooting at their friendly column of BMPs moving in parallel with them.

The footage shows the Russian tank taking out 3 YPR-765 vehicles, 2 BMPs as well as a direct hit on a T-72M. Another 3 Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed in this engagement after the video ends. Afterwards, the Russian tank drove off to safety, leaving the battlefield."

I don't think shooting at the direction that has friendly force is pure panic and disorganize.

I guess the UKR side's original plan look like this

 

RUS side main defense position is on the right side of the video. UKR's original plan requires the BMP platoon take the road on the right side and get into the overwatch position along the treeline. Then the company task force on the left side bypass the treeline, no man land, and attacking the Rus position.

It looks like the UKR's company task force arrive at assembly area before the BMP platoon get into the overwatch position. And after receiving the direct fire, the first reaction is that the RUS troops are hiding in the treeline. It is quite logical. 

 

UKR side realized where the real threat is after one minute of engagement, (and that is after the third APC hit) . Their reaction is relatively quick. They quickly maneuver to the right side of the field, avoid further loss. 

 

[Haiduk]

Exellent documental film "Battle for Chernihiv". For this time this is most detailed thing. The same team recently made film "Battle for Kyiv", but it turned out too weak in part of facts or describing of actions. But film about Chernihiv is really cool - it removes some blank spots, but I hope, after the war we will know much more. 

First version of this film was only in UKR, now ENG subs have appeared - you can turn them on during watching

Part 1:

Part 2

Part 3

 

[BletchleyGeek]

10 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I don't think shooting at the direction that has friendly force is pure panic and disorganize.

I guess the UKR side's original plan look like this

 

RUS side main defense position is on the right side of the video. UKR's original plan requires the BMP platoon take the road on the right side and get into the overwatch position along the treeline. Then the company task force on the left side bypass the treeline, no man land, and attacking the Rus position.

It looks like the UKR's company task force arrive at assembly area before the BMP platoon get into the overwatch position. And after receiving the direct fire, the first reaction is that the RUS troops are hiding in the treeline. It is quite logical. 

 

UKR side realized where the real threat is after one minute of engagement, (and that is after the third APC hit) . Their reaction is relatively quick. They quickly maneuver to the right side of the field, avoid further loss. 

 

Thanks for the analysis Chibot. Offensive operations are difficult. One misstep or failure of synchronisation and that's all what a competent defender needs to throw the attacker off the rails.

[Haiduk]

Video for summer or early autumn - UKR soldiers in the forest or in some village with dense vegetation suddenly engaged by Russians. They are taking fire from small arms and suffering losses - cameraman got an arm injury, then he filmed as one soldier was killed, then at the end of video other soldier come and says that their comrade also was killed. They advance along two abandoned Russian BMPs with "O" markings, likely this is Luhansk oblast

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

59 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Exellent documental film "Battle for Chernihiv". For this time this is most detailed thing. The same team recently made film "Battle for Kyiv", but it turned out too weak in part of facts or describing of actions. But film about Chernihiv is really cool - it removes some blank spots, but I hope, after the war we will know much more. 

First version of this film was only in UKR, now ENG subs have appeared - you can turn them on during watching

Posted link to it circa month ago, watched only first part but indeed very recommended to all users. Slightly similar to this documentary about 93rd Brigade from early Donbas conflict, but this time chiefly about 1st Tank/ supporting units. I remember various lengthly analysis from early war, trying to figure out "how the hell they managed to defend Chernihiv against entire Russian Field Army".

 

Pretty sobering testimony of how much zombified moskals became, case of one family:

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

A step towards more clandestine ops?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/uh-60-black-hawk-unexpectedly-appears-in-ukrainian-military-service

[Beleg85]

https://tiraspol-news.ru/society/2023/02/21/36923.html

Russian telegrams note moves by Ukrainian army near the border. They are probably panicking, but it bods with visit of Maia Sandu in Warsaw, mentioned by Biden himself, and pretty bold statements by Moldovan PM in spe about Russian provocations. It seems they may want to scare Russians a little, but just imagine Russian shock seeing their soldiers being one day disarmed by despised Moldovans. Transinistria reportedly have sizeable warehouses with post-soviet weaponry, which became unexpectedly very valuable commodity by now.

 

Also quite loud night today: explosion were reported in Donetsk, Mariupol (Russians are panicking, envisoning GLSDB...but who knows?), Kreminna, Ilovaisk, Tokmak etc.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I don't think shooting at the direction that has friendly force is pure panic and disorganize.

I guess the UKR side's original plan look like this

 

RUS side main defense position is on the right side of the video. UKR's original plan requires the BMP platoon take the road on the right side and get into the overwatch position along the treeline. Then the company task force on the left side bypass the treeline, no man land, and attacking the Rus position.

It looks like the UKR's company task force arrive at assembly area before the BMP platoon get into the overwatch position. And after receiving the direct fire, the first reaction is that the RUS troops are hiding in the treeline. It is quite logical. 

 

UKR side realized where the real threat is after one minute of engagement, (and that is after the third APC hit) . Their reaction is relatively quick. They quickly maneuver to the right side of the field, avoid further loss. 

 

Two things: First this entire war, and maybe all wars consists of of little tiny engagements where one side or the other get a real advantage and utilizes it. In the engagement discussed in this post it was the Russians who had it together. In the somewhat larger engagement around Vuhledar recently it was the Ukrainians. The war is determined in large part by which side has more good days. The simple fact that Ukraine is still in this war, given the initial force disparities, implies that it has been them, so far. Going forward it is a contest to maintain an edge in combat power even as attrition continually wears units down. The very crude back of the envelope math is that two percent casualties per week mean a unit is literally gone in a year. So for Ukraine to win NATOs training complex has to produce units that are notably better than the Russian fast enough to stay ahead of that curve. Data from Allied forces fighting from D-Day to German surrender point out just how hard this is.

Second point, this engagement is a short form argument for why tanks are still worth having around. If the other side bleeps up and gives you a target rich environment nothing can do more damage, more quickly than a well handled MBT. The very badly handled ones flopping around the minefields around Vuhledar of course provide the counter argument. A bad crew can lose a very expensive asset very quickly. Which brings us back to the question of which side can produce TRAINED people faster.

Edited February 22, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I don't think shooting at the direction that has friendly force is pure panic and disorganize.

I guess the UKR side's original plan look like this

 

RUS side main defense position is on the right side of the video. UKR's original plan requires the BMP platoon take the road on the right side and get into the overwatch position along the treeline. Then the company task force on the left side bypass the treeline, no man land, and attacking the Rus position.

It looks like the UKR's company task force arrive at assembly area before the BMP platoon get into the overwatch position. And after receiving the direct fire, the first reaction is that the RUS troops are hiding in the treeline. It is quite logical. 

 

UKR side realized where the real threat is after one minute of engagement, (and that is after the third APC hit) . Their reaction is relatively quick. They quickly maneuver to the right side of the field, avoid further loss. 

 

Excellent job of actually diagramming things. And all of a sudden you can see how it would play in CM perfectly.

[Beleg85]

Update from Jomini, and his phantastic maps:

 

[Kinophile]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/leopard-2-ukrainian-crew-fired-its-first-shot/

UKR crews training hard

[NamEndedAllen]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/futuristic-mortar-turret-seen-in-action-at-u-s-special-ops-base-in-syria
The U.S. military's main special operations task force focused on combating ISIS across the Middle East has released pictures showing personnel firing an XM905 Advanced Mortar Protection System, or AMPS, in Syria. The XM905 is a turreted, computer-assisted 120mm mortar specially developed to help provide an added layer of defense at forward operating bases. The complete system looks like it could belong in a video game like Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare or Command & Conquer

[Erwin]

From WSJ:  "A series of events on the international stage has laid bare the perilous state of great-power relations as Russia and China challenge the U.S.-led global order."

It may be finally realized that this is not a proxy war between Russia and the US but a proxy war between China and the US.  The Ukraine war is misunderstood.  While we try and weaken Russia, China is supporting Russia in order to weaken the US-led dominance. 

So long as China supports Russia, Russia has the ability to keep up the war "as long as it takes".  China's goal is to weaken the US and the western alliance just as the west is trying to weaken Russia.  But, our goal should be to weaken China.  The sad fact is that at some point the war of attrition of its male population will be far worse for Ukraine than for Russia... akin to what happened to Britain after WW1.  

Edited February 22, 2023 by Erwin

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, Erwin said:

But, our goal should be to weaken China.

Opposing Russia weakens China. The calculation by Russia and maybe tacitly approved by China envisioned a weakened and divided West unable to oppose a Russian conquest of Ukraine, heralding a new period of Russian resurgence and anti-western leadership.

Moves to shy away from facing Russia only embolden China and give other front line states that could be potential allies and counters to China reasons to doubt Western resolve.

Edited February 22, 2023 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

Or the better thing to bring up, why should any state in Asia side with the U.S vs China if we can't be guaranteed to simply provide ammo? Much less anything that might cost blood...if we can't do so in Ukraine?

 

[sburke]

We don't need to have Russia be the proxy war with China when we are already having direct issues with China.  I expect China isn't all that happy with the results of Russia's war against Ukraine.  It has achieved the opposite goals than China would have wanted.  Western arms manufacturing is just beginning to shift to high gear, that can't make Xi real warm and fuzzy.

Edited February 22, 2023 by sburke

[chrisl]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

We don't need to have Russia be the proxy war with China when we are already having direct issues with China.  I expect China isn't all that happy with the results of Russia's war against Ukraine.  It has achieved the opposite goals than China would have wanted.  Western arms manufacturing is just beginning to shift to high gear, that can't make Xi real warm and fuzzy.

It’s also accelerated onshoring of manufacturing technology that we spent the last 35 years offshoring.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Video for summer or early autumn - UKR soldiers in the forest or in some village with dense vegetation suddenly engaged by Russians. They are taking fire from small arms and suffering losses - cameraman got an arm injury, then he filmed as one soldier was killed, then at the end of video other soldier come and says that their comrade also was killed. They advance along two abandoned Russian BMPs with "O" markings, likely this is Luhansk oblast

 

 

I see red armbands, which is consistent with LPR troops from the time period.  To me it looks like two of them on the top lip of the small slope.  The quality is crap and I don't speak Ukrainian. but to me it looked like one guy got wounded while trying to surrender and then the second one got killed and rolled down the slope?  I'm a bit confused by it all

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Reporting on leaked Kremlin document made in 2021 outlining how the Russian state plans on absorbing Belarus by 2030.  This has been a pretty obvious and open secret plan for Belarus for many years.  The pressure for bases and the Eurasia Customs Union being pretty well documented attempts to establish Russian influence over Belarus:

https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/leaked-document-reveals-alleged-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030

Not surprisingly, the reporters concluded:

"As for the military strategy, Russia seemingly achieved most of the 2022 goals, which primarily advocated for expanding the Russian military presence in Belarus."

Yup.  And the removal of significant quantities of military equipment and munitions to Russia for use in Ukraine accomplished the dual goal of aiding Russia's war effort as well as massively degrading Belarus' ability to military oppose Russian occupation.

As far as I can tell unless Putin's regime collapses and Russia itself put onto a different (better) track, Belarus is most likely going to become a part of Russia.  Belarus is too weak and Russia is too determined for it to end any other way.

Steve

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Opposing Russia weakens China. The calculation by Russia and maybe tacitly approved by China envisioned a weakened and divided West unable to oppose a Russian conquest of Ukraine, heralding a new period of Russian resurgence and anti-western leadership.

Moves to shy away from facing Russia only embolden China and give other front line states that could be potential allies and counters to China reasons to doubt Western resolve.

Xi hoped the Russian attack on Ukraine would cause the Western Alliance to completely fail. If it had he would quite likely be holding a parade in Taipei as we speak. Instead he has has to evaluate not just what he would pay for Taiwan, but the possibility he could lose most of his Navy, and still not get it.  I don't think he wants to join Putin on the list of fools who thought they were launching "a short victorious war", and wound up with an extended stay in a yellow jacket nest instead.

[Anonymous_Jonze]

Perhaps a repost here, but this is a pretty interesting interaction between Wagner PMC and Russian Regulars. According to the commenter below, they weren't mincing words.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/115xw6c/wagner_group_pmc_soldiers_and_the_russian_army/?ref=share&ref_source=embed&utm_content=title&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_name=8dafb3e8617645afb5967c3ec20cc0a4&utm_source=embedly&utm_term=115xw6c