How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

Vladimir Vladimirovich is speaking live. At the moment nothing special, words "Nazi" and "West" are being repeated quite often.

 Quotes from OSINTdefender’s coverage:

Putin: Anglican church plans to consider idea of gender-neutral god, but God forgive them, they don't know what they are doing

Putin, “In the West, Pedophilia is seen as a new norm and Priests are Forced to Officiate Same-Sex Marriages.” 
 

“Sevastopol and Crimea was their next Target.

Putin states, “It is “Them” that unleashed this War not Russia

Putin, “We have attempted every Opportunity for Peace.”

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Aragorn2002]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Vladimir Vladimirovich is speaking live. At the moment nothing special, words "Nazi" and "West" are being repeated quite often.

 

When that man breathes, he lies. 

[kraze]

29 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Putin, “In the West, Pedophilia is seen as a new norm and Priests are Forced to Officiate Same-Sex Marriages.” 

Meanwhile in Russia priests are not forced to do anything - they **** underage kids completely voluntarily.

[NamEndedAllen]

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-20-23/h_892b2023e3f2e4b6dfcc6f15f5fe47c7

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized American aid to Ukraine as an "open-ended blank check" and questioned whether the United States should be engaged in the Russian conflict at all.

"I don't think it's in our interest to be getting into a proxy war with China, getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea," DeSantis told Fox & Friends on Monday, referring to the Ukraine territories that Russia has seized through military force.

China? CHINA?

[Vacillator]

28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

When that man breathes, he lies. 

The highlight so far was when the translator seemed to use the words "oh f**k" (a translation of what was being said) on the BBC live broadcast. 

[Sekai]

Prigozhin appears furious, and Wagner's heyday appears to be coming to an end. He should stay away from high-rise buildings

 

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

The highlight so far was when the translator seemed to use the words "oh f**k" (a translation of what was being said) on the BBC live broadcast. 

Yup, there's hardly anything relevant to the war so far, and it's already an hour and a half. He smacked "the rich" for associating with the West a bit, and encouraged them to invest their fortunes in Russia. Overall, the "economic self-sufficiency" and "sovereignty" seems to be the main topic, he speaks about road development and such. Juche tones are definitely audible.
At this point though I think that his main goal is to bore everyone to death.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Recent footage of Russians launching wildly inaccurate BM-21 barrage on (probably) innocent farmland and trees.  It's been a long time since I've seen a 3rd Army Corps vehicle.

 

It seems the Russians are preparing an amphibious landing.

At least the frogs will have many new ponds this spring.

 

On a more serious note, I think we can probably add this kind of rocket launcher to the list of weapons that will be seen as obsolete after this war.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Huba]

Putin finished with some nuclear sabre-rattling:
- he won't follow through with the New START
- NATO inspections of RU strategic weapons are now "absurd"
- he accuses US, UK and FR of working on new nuclear weapons and intentions to test them. If that happens, RU will conduct nuclear tests too
- he reiterated that Russia won't be the first to conduct nuclear strikes on anyone

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, Sekai said:

Prigozhin appears furious, and Wagner's heyday appears to be coming to an end. He should stay away from high-rise buildings

 

Prigozhin and Wagner almost reminds me of Ernst Rohm and SA. If the regime feels threatend by them and they no longer serve a purpose they will be liquidated. But as long they are doing a better work than the army I'm not sure when this will happen.  

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've talked about smoke quite a bit, specifically about the absence of it on the Russian side.  Here's an interesting kill for Oryx:

Each Russian vehicle is a smoke machine - once.

[Yet]

35 minutes ago, Sekai said:

Prigozhin appears furious, and Wagner's heyday appears to be coming to an end. He should stay away from high-rise buildings

 

So, why gazprom can have a mercenary army. maybe to replace wagner when time comes? 

[Yet]

23 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It seems the Russians are preparing an amphibian landing.

At least the frogs will have many new ponds this spring.

 

On a more serious note, I think we can probably add this kind of rocket launcher to the list of weapons that will be seen as obsolete after this war.

considering that it is the only vehicle being stopped by styrofoam 'dwagon teef' i guess they wont serve a better purpose than targeting practice or mine-sweeping.

[MSBoxer]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ouch!

I have to say that when I first heard of the visit (I was driving at the time) I thought it was important, meaningful, and "well played".  But I was paying more attention to traffic than the radio, as it should be.  It wasn't until I got home and started reading some commentary about how it happened that it really sunk in as to how significant this move was.  It wasn't just the overt sign of support and the symbolism of the moment, it wasn't the fact that the Biden Admin felt it was safe enough to go to Kyiv, it was that the Russians would freak out about it.  Deeply and profoundly.

Steve

Now, don't get me wrong, Biden's message sends a strong message, but not a new message.  Everyone knew that the US fully supports the people of Ukraine.  11 European heads of state visited in the first 6 months of the war and to my mind these early signs of support when Kyiv was under regular attack meant more simply because there was more doubt at that time.

I am not taking anything away from this trip, but from a political and physical standpoint it was a low risk/high gain bit of theater.  I am glad he went and agree that it may put a damper on celebrations in Russia, but it does not change the existing equation.

 

[TheVulture]

30 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Now, don't get me wrong, Biden's message sends a strong message, but not a new message.  Everyone knew that the US fully supports the people of Ukraine.  11 European heads of state visited in the first 6 months of the war and to my mind these early signs of support when Kyiv was under regular attack meant more simply because there was more doubt at that time.

I am not taking anything away from this trip, but from a political and physical standpoint it was a low risk/high gain bit of theater.  I am glad he went and agree that it may put a damper on celebrations in Russia, but it does not change the existing equation.

 

When you've got a steady, if small, stream of western politicians saying that we ought to stop supporting Ukraine (today's human nugget of choice: Ron DeSantis), it is important that they aren't the only voice being heard by the public, and that they aren't even close to getting equal exposure. So a bit of public theatre is needed to keep making it clear to everyone that political and public opinion is still massively in favour of supporting Ukraine militarily.

It's not meant to be new.  It's meant to continue to buoy up support and make it clear that any disagreement has a much smaller support base.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Sekai said:

Prigozhin appears furious, and Wagner's heyday appears to be coming to an end. He should stay away from high-rise buildings

This is more interesting development than Putin (if it is indeed Prigozhin an not i.e. AI). They are now openly at throats of MoD officials.

Btw. did anybody else read also Putin's appearance as rather defensive and gloomy? It seems the guy knows he lost, just cannot take a step back. So meatgrinder will work, thousands on both sides will die needlessly only for him to be able to sit at the throne a little longer.

Also note Navalny started to be active on social media again.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. did anybody else read also Putin's announcment as rather defensive and gloom? It seems the guy knows he lost, just cannot take a step back.

I see his framing like this:

Stablizing Russia's economy and society as a nation in perpetual war and finding a new normalcy in its self-inflicted autarky. In a way, it's a similar approach to the "Juche"-Ideology of North Korea.

Overall, still playing for time and hoping that the West gives up first.

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I see his framing like this:

Stablizing Russia's economy and society as a nation in perpetual war and finding a new normalcy in its self-inflicted autarky. In a way, it's a similar approach to the "Juche"-Ideology of North Korea.

Overall, still playing for time and hoping that the West gives up first.

Yup, further entrenching- but definitelly speech was disappointment from outsider's point of view. Entire speech was very concerned with domestic effects of the war (he used the word War several times, but I think in general term "War with the West"). There will be special fund for "victims" of violently defending Ukronazis, who are insolent enough to kill Russian soldiers. Also nuanced threats to oligarch who don't want to pay their shares for war effort.

I expect Biden's speech to be much better and energizing.

Not to die from boredoom looking at Putin:

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/02/17/ukrainian-battalion-completes-first-combined-arms-training-in-germany/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Bradley battalion went first and now a Stryker is up. Not at a critical training mass yet. But a start. 

I wonder if the US will figure out how to fly drones from a FIST:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-to-get-bradley-m7-vehicles-to-act-as-artillery-quarterbacks

The land aircraft carrier we talked about over the summer. 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

GUR has Black Hawks! replaced with official source.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by FancyCat

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

Now, don't get me wrong, Biden's message sends a strong message, but not a new message.  Everyone knew that the US fully supports the people of Ukraine.  11 European heads of state visited in the first 6 months of the war and to my mind these early signs of support when Kyiv was under regular attack meant more simply because there was more doubt at that time.

I am not taking anything away from this trip, but from a political and physical standpoint it was a low risk/high gain bit of theater.  I am glad he went and agree that it may put a damper on celebrations in Russia, but it does not change the existing equation.

 

Two things: 

1. It sends a clear message to Russians that not only is the US president behind Ukraine but that he thinks Ukraine can win and that either Russia is afraid to attack him or that it is unable to. I've been watching Russian tv this morning and you can see the propagandists struggling with it. They are a mixture of appalled and outraged.

2. That bit of theater has elevated Ukraine even further as a political issue in US politics. Biden is nailing our flag to the mast on this issue. He is trying to turn it into one of just a few main themes of 2024 and given how DeSantis stepped into it on Fox this week, Republicans intend on going along with it.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

Now, don't get me wrong, Biden's message sends a strong message, but not a new message.  Everyone knew that the US fully supports the people of Ukraine.  11 European heads of state visited in the first 6 months of the war and to my mind these early signs of support when Kyiv was under regular attack meant more simply because there was more doubt at that time.

I am not taking anything away from this trip, but from a political and physical standpoint it was a low risk/high gain bit of theater.  I am glad he went and agree that it may put a damper on celebrations in Russia, but it does not change the existing equation.

 

For some in Russia, certainly.  However, the standard Kremlin line is that all NATO countries are literal political puppets of the United States.  Keeping with that mentality, Russians have dismissed the other leaders showing up in Kyiv as "theater".  The US is putting its puppets into harm's way, not itself.  Never itself.  And then... the Puppet Master made an appearance on the stage.  That, according to decades of Russian brainwashing, is different and significant.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

Was it even getting into harm's way? Visiting Kyiv is pretty low risk.

Even if Putin knew the exact location, he would find it very difficult to strike at Biden there. Too much AA, not enough missiles. Visiting Bakhmut would be a different thing.

Also, Putin would gain absolutely nothing by killing Biden. Quite the opposite.

[kevinkin]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

He is trying to turn it into one of just a few main themes of 2024

God forbid if we are voting on funding this war in November of 2024. What will be left of Ukraine at that point? Better if the US and Ukraine kick Russia out and the fighting stops on the west's terms now. An ongoing war is only a winner for some:

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/20/the-unexpected-winners-of-the-war-in-ukraine-the-people-companies-and-countries-that-have-benefited-from-the-turmoil/

I can see voting on reconstruction support, but the war itself better be over. The administration will look pretty impotent after the POTUS's visit. The war would be a messy issue in 2024 and don't think any side would come out a clear winner in American politics. Dems = "not enough money" Reps = "it's and debt, stupid". Same old same old. 

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

God forbid if we are voting on funding this war in November of 2024. What will be left of Ukraine at that point?

All of it.