How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BletchleyGeek]

10 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Don't leave out Bulgakov.

Luke Harding at The Guardian had an interesting piece touching how cultural legacy is perceived in times of existential war

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/dec/31/mikhail-bulgakov-museum-kyiv-calls-to-close

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 and how much time does it take to produce a Leopard tank and other weapon systems. I expect the production rate will be stunningly slow, but I haven't got a clue.

During the 80/90s production rate for Leo II was ca. 16 vehicles per month. The facilities are still there.

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Who thinks this?  Capitalism works, overall.  It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net.  We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism?  State run economies are baaaaaad at running..... a state economy .   The free market, which sometimes actually exists, works -- meaning it only exists when there's the much req'd proper competition, lest things devolve rather quickly into trusts & monopolies. 

 

Of course capitalism "works" but it doesn't work in a way that is useful for society. A good economical system converts greed into productivity. This never actually worked reliably but since WW2 capitalism managed to sell the narrative that it does. Work hard and you will get rich or at least have enough money for a good life. We were fed the stories of people with good ideas who worked hard and became millionaires. We weren't told about survivor bias and that those people ultimate were just those who got lucky. At least up to a decade or two ago it was good enough that a large middle class was created, mostly in the western democracies.

But in the end capitalism is not about hard work, it is, as the name implies, about capital. Which ultimately means making money by having money. And that only works with interests. You lend someone money and expect to get back more than you gave him. Since that is what our whole economy is about we need perpetual growth (because otherwise you can't pay interests). And it is not about hard work. You very rarely get rich by working hard. But if you have money, you very reliably get more money. That is the opposite of converting greed to productivity.

Now, about the middle class: We currently ser a decline of the middle class in many western countries. That's because it was kind of an accident that got corrected by globalization. The middle class are well educated people whom companies needed to produce their ever more complicated products and who thus made the money to actually buy them. Nowadays we have cheap but well educated people in far off countries and still some middle class here to buy stuff but which often largely exists because countries subsidize companies to stay in the country, often making debts in the process. But since one person's debts are another person's capital that model, for now, works even better.

But once AI and automation make the vast majority of jobs vanish (and that will happen!) plus climate change showing us that perpetual growth on a finite planet can't work this whole system is in serious trouble.

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

as the name implies, about capital.

Not how it started. Capital started as Capitlālis a person's wealth depended on the head of cattle a person owned. People over the centuries found different ways to make capital. But the name stuck, it will go the same way with stock and shares. There comes a moment it doesn't work anymore. They will come up with something else. The way we pay for this game a lot of KBs goes out of our bank account to buy 5 GBs of a wargaming App. This would be pure science fiction in 1940-1945 when they were doing it for real.

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Capitalism works, overall.  It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net.  We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism?

Feudalism also worked, overall. The only reason it stopped was because the world changed.

I don't think anybody really knows what will replace capitalism, but we just know something needs to replace it eventually.

Not because it doesn't "work", but because it can't keep going. We can't have continual material growth on a finite planet, no matter how much we want to.

[panzermartin]

32 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Of course capitalism "works" but it doesn't work in a way that is useful for society. A good economical system converts greed into productivity. This never actually worked reliably but since WW2 capitalism managed to sell the narrative that it does. Work hard and you will get rich or at least have enough money for a good life. We were fed the stories of people with good ideas who worked hard and became millionaires. We weren't told about survivor bias and that those people ultimate were just those who got lucky. At least up to a decade or two ago it was good enough that a large middle class was created, mostly in the western democracies.

But in the end capitalism is not about hard work, it is, as the name implies, about capital. Which ultimately means making money by having money. And that only works with interests. You lend someone money and expect to get back more than you gave him. Since that is what our whole economy is about we need perpetual growth (because otherwise you can't pay interests). And it is not about hard work. You very rarely get rich by working hard. But if you have money, you very reliably get more money. That is the opposite of converting greed to productivity.

Now, about the middle class: We currently ser a decline of the middle class in many western countries. That's because it was kind of an accident that got corrected by globalization. The middle class are well educated people whom companies needed to produce their ever more complicated products and who thus made the money to actually buy them. Nowadays we have cheap but well educated people in far off countries and still some middle class here to buy stuff but which often largely exists because countries subsidize companies to stay in the country, often making debts in the process. But since one person's debts are another person's capital that model, for now, works even better.

But once AI and automation make the vast majority of jobs vanish (and that will happen!) plus climate change showing us that perpetual growth on a finite planet can't work this whole system is in serious trouble.

Yes AI will have to bring changes to the system. I hope the elite understands they can't put everyone out of work while they hold the keys to automation and the big share of goods. This will either lead to most people going extinct or to another revolution like in 1789. Hopefully the second. 

[Huba]

51 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But once AI and automation make the vast majority of jobs vanish (and that will happen!) plus climate change showing us that perpetual growth on a finite planet can't work this whole system is in serious trouble.

The crucial factor that is missing from this assessment are the demographic changes that are happening now. Human population will stop growing in the next few decades, and developed countries (in general, caveats apply) are mostly in the decline already. The need for more space might very well go away. Case in point - the death of rural/ small towns communities that is happening all over the place. We very well can reach the point of "growing" per capita without growing in absolute terms. 
Also, there's a lot of quite mature technologies that will allow us to consume way more energy than at the moment without seriously impacting the planet, and more are emerging (again, caveats apply).

Edited February 15, 2023 by Huba

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Fernando said:

And do not forget Dovstoyevski,  Pushkin, Turgeniev, Chekhov,  Mussorgski, Rimsky-Korsakov etc., etc.
19th century literature and music cannot be understood without the Russian contribution. The American contribution during that century in these two fields is practically negligible compared to the Russian one. I absolutely LOVE Tchaikovsky and Tolstoi myself. 

It reminds me phrase of the character played by  Orson Welles in "The Third Man": "In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." 

OTOH I fully agree SOME people in Russia should be taught a lesson

(BTW, Switzerland had a civil war, the Sonderbundkrieg, in the 19th century, a long tradition of mercenary troops, the wars of the French revolution were also fought in Switzerland, let's not forget Suvorov's campaign there, and the Renaissance started long before the Borgias, but I guess you get the point)
 

Yes, I also like some of Tolstoy works. True, very few, for example, the short story "Hadji Murat", where he perfectly describes the habits of Russian soldiers during the Caucasian wars of the 19th century:

"The fountain was polluted, apparently on purpose, so that water could not be taken from it. The mosque was also polluted, and the mullah with the Mutalims was cleaning it up... No one spoke of hatred of the Russians. The feeling experienced by all Chechens, young and old, was stronger than hatred. It was not hatred, but the non-recognition of these Russian dogs by people and such disgust, disgust and bewilderment at the ridiculous cruelty of these creatures that the desire to exterminate them, like the desire to exterminate rats, poisonous spiders and wolves, was as natural as a sense of self-preservation"

In any case, this behavior was not common in the 19th century. Many European armies behaved in a similar way when capturing settlements. But more than 150 years have passed. Ideology and world views have completely changed, and Russia is still mentally at the level of the 19th century Pushkin, Dostoevsky and other nonsense.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Zeleban

[The_MonkeyKing]

on the matter of German protests on the Leopard 2 donations and leopard in  general:

Quote

 

Seems #Germany is upset about the limited number of #Leopard donors to #Ukraine. While I have long been arguing for more aid to Ukraine, I'm somewhat unsure what exactly is the core of the criticism in this case.

 

Make no mistake, Germany does *a lot*, but every step is accompanied by hand-wringing and vocal concerns about the risk of escalation, which undercut the diplomatic part of it. 

 

When it comes to the #FreeTheLeopard in particular, the discussion has been ongoing for months, and Germany has denied other countries the opportunity to proceed. The "not alone" has been a hollow argument, as it has been other countries asking permission to do something. 

"Not without the US" was the real argument, showing that European strategic autonomy wasn't something Germany actually cared for in this case. 

The lack of ready plans from other countries is notable. For a few months it has been clear that at some point the Leopards likely would be freed, and having a ready contingency plan for that would seem to have been an obvious move for most operators.

 

So here I can give German criticism some points. At the same time, "We've changed our mind, why didn't you prepare for that?" isn't necessarily the strongest foundation for critiquing others... 

 

Numbers and firm commitments could be higher, but isn't surprising. I pointed out way back in January that few operators have large numbers available for delivery, unless they're frontline states with cause for ensuring they have strong forces themselves.https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/free-the-leopards/

Free the LeopardsThe following proposal is madness. I’ve been told so in no uncertain terms by people knowledgeable of the matter who’s opinions I highly respect. It runs against both the common discour…https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/free-the-leopards/

So far #Poland, #Norway, #Canada, #Spain, and #Portugal have all joined in, as well as the Danish-Dutch-German #Leopard1A5 deal for 100 tanks. I imagine *some* additional tanks will appear as well (*cough* Finland *cough*).
 

I'm not sure what was expecting? A number of countries each donating a handful of tanks to ensure critical mass of at least a battalion or two was the low-hanging fruit discussed all along. Anything else (Spain shipping all 2E or Finland all 2A4) would've been a huge surprise. 

 

(#Poland might have been overly vocal about how ready everything was, but they have also sent significant numbers of tanks already and is ready to part with a company of Leopards despite being in the first row, so it's difficult to fault them too much) oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukrainehttps://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html?m=1

It seems there's a combination of 1) people talking about "hundreds of Leopards" without detailing versions or users leading to unrealistic expectations, and 2) Germany not feeling appreciated for ending their stalling of deliveries after half a year, both are in play here. 

I would advise everyone to take a deep breath. Germany hasn't exactly the goodwill built up to start trashing people, and others could have had their plans ready for the inevitable German flip. Still, the Leopards are now on the move, and they will be an important addition.  

 

source: https://twitter.com/CorporalFrisk/status/1625795975787823105

Edited February 15, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[panzermartin]

So Russians affecting US elections via social media did nothing new after all 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/revealed-disinformation-team-jorge-claim-meddling-elections-tal-hanan

[Huba]

This sounds like very good news, especially that only few days have passed since last missile barrage. Is it true? How's the electricity situation for you @Zeleban @Haiduk?

 

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

This sounds like very good news, especially that only few days have passed since last missile barrage. Is it true? How's the electricity situation for you @Zeleban @Haiduk?

 

I had electricity all winter constantly and almost never turned off. Now many write about it, so it seems to be true. With increasing temperatures, the lack of electricity will decrease. So it looks like Russia's sensational plan to plunge Ukraine into the Middle Ages by depriving it of electricity has failed, like many other poorly planned and poorly executed plans of Russia.

[Lethaface]

49 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

on the matter of German protests on the Leopard 2 donations and leopard in  general:

source: https://twitter.com/CorporalFrisk/status/1625795975787823105

Where is Finnish tanks?  Finland has many Leo2A6 and also 2A4 in reserve. 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Of course capitalism "works" but it doesn't work in a way that is useful for society. A good economical system converts greed into productivity. This never actually worked reliably but since WW2 capitalism managed to sell the narrative that it does. Work hard and you will get rich or at least have enough money for a good life. We were fed the stories of people with good ideas who worked hard and became millionaires. We weren't told about survivor bias and that those people ultimate were just those who got lucky. At least up to a decade or two ago it was good enough that a large middle class was created, mostly in the western democracies.

But in the end capitalism is not about hard work, it is, as the name implies, about capital. Which ultimately means making money by having money. And that only works with interests. You lend someone money and expect to get back more than you gave him. Since that is what our whole economy is about we need perpetual growth (because otherwise you can't pay interests). And it is not about hard work. You very rarely get rich by working hard. But if you have money, you very reliably get more money. That is the opposite of converting greed to productivity.

Now, about the middle class: We currently ser a decline of the middle class in many western countries. That's because it was kind of an accident that got corrected by globalization. The middle class are well educated people whom companies needed to produce their ever more complicated products and who thus made the money to actually buy them. Nowadays we have cheap but well educated people in far off countries and still some middle class here to buy stuff but which often largely exists because countries subsidize companies to stay in the country, often making debts in the process. But since one person's debts are another person's capital that model, for now, works even better.

But once AI and automation make the vast majority of jobs vanish (and that will happen!) plus climate change showing us that perpetual growth on a finite planet can't work this whole system is in serious trouble.

If AI takes all our jobs, we can enjoy our well deserved pension :D. As the world is aging that's probably for the best, probably most people will work in healthcare by then. Imo there will always be new jobs.

On capitalism, how would one call the economy system of the stone age? Stone-ism? ;-). I think our financial markets are a threat and unhealthy overall (only not for the shareholder), but we don't need to go back to trading goods to 'fix things'. As long as we keep producting things / 'adding value' we need some system to actually have the amount of money grow.
Our (NL) social variant of capitalism worked rather very well until the early 2000s. Arguably we let the social care get out of hand a bit, without much plans how to sustain it with an aging population. So something had to change.

But instead of tuning the system, we went on massive privatization later followed by the government somehow thinking it is wise to outsource all knowledge and expertise to 'the market' on almost all terrains. That's where my country is now, at least recent research of the states-general came to the same conclusion. 

Anyway I think the problem is more in corporate culture (and blind profit maximization) and conflicts of interest, not necessarily 'capitalism'. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lethaface

[Ales Dvorak]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I asked him what they have contributed culturally, and that came up with zero. 

I do believe CMBB players will recognise this.

 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

how would one call the economy system of the stone age?

Reciprocity same what Australian Aboriginals use today. A good turn needs to be paid back whether bounty from the hunt or gathering of bushtucker (bush food).

[Peregrine]

I remembered the theme music too.

With the Russian composers whose music has spanned the decades/centuries they sort of succeeded in spite of their system and to a degree their success was also by bucking the Russian system and adopting aspects from the West into their works. Simplistic view but sort of true. They were definitely pretty special individuals.

[The_MonkeyKing]

24 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Where is Finnish tanks?  Finland has many Leo2A6 and also 2A4 in reserve. 

Finland doesn't disclose the content of its aid, I am quite sure Finland is participating in limited numbers at the moment.

Additional numbers seem to be dependent on the ratification of Finnish NATO membership. This has been quite clearly but somewhat indirectly stated by officials and the president. The line is because of Finland's location and non-NATO membership military support is constrained.

The fact that the big south, west, and central European nations are not giving away any significant percentages of their fleets or even offering to compensate tanks given by others is seen as distasteful. Russia's neighbors and so the ones that are most at threat are leading in donations, this is not seen as desirable in Finland. The load sharing should be reversed from our point of view.

If I would make the decisions half of the Finnish Leo fleet(all the 2A6 variants) and the BMP-2s would be already heading to UKR.

[kraze]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

Don't leave out Bulgakov.

Nobody leaves that human filth out, trust me.

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Fernando said:

And do not forget Dovstoyevski,  Pushkin, Turgeniev, Chekhov,  Mussorgski, Rimsky-Korsakov etc., etc.
19th century literature and music cannot be understood without the Russian contribution. The American contribution during that century in these two fields is practically negligible compared to the Russian one. I absolutely LOVE Tchaikovsky and Tolstoi myself. 

When was the last time you actually read any of those?

I mean they do represent russian culture well - barbaric, backwards, inhumane, racist and hateful - but they do not describe those things as something bad, but instead highly promote them. So I'm not exactly sure if this "contribution" should even be considered significant in any other way but to understand why russians are so completely devoid of any kind of empathy in no small part due to various Pushkins and Chekhovs influencing them since the school chair.

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

When was the last time you actually read any of those?

I mean they do represent russian culture well - barbaric, backwards, inhumane, racist and hateful - but they do not describe those things as something bad, but instead highly promote them. So I'm not exactly sure if this "contribution" should even be considered significant in any other way but to understand why russians are so completely devoid of any kind of empathy in no small part due to various Pushkins and Chekhovs influencing them since the school chair.

Pretty frequently in fact .   My section of Russian Literature in my library is larger than the French section I would think ...and I do re-read them fairly frequently . Gogol being a favorite . You need to tone it back a little .

[Letter from Prague]

56 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Where is Finnish tanks?  Finland has many Leo2A6 and also 2A4 in reserve. 

I'm thinking Finland is one of the few countries that might actually need those tanks in place.

Also you people are all either way older or way younger than me, because you're missing the most important Russian invention: TETRIS.

ETA: kidding aside, I went on "what did the Russians invented" rabbit hole, and the list apparently includes solar panels, powdered milk and kettlebells. Not that it is useful in any way to use past Russia to judge Putin's regime and people who support it now.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Pretty frequently in fact .   My section of Russian Literature in my library is larger than the French section I would think ...and I do re-read them fairly frequently . Gogol being a favorite . You need to tone it back a little .

Good. So you have no problem with all the dehumanization of non-russians (or even just human beings) in their books?

[Astrophel]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Of course capitalism "works" but it doesn't work in a way that is useful for society.

Without capitalism we would not have personal computers, iPhones, the internet, or many many things that are useful for society.  I met and worked with a lot of the people involved in creating these worlds and none of them did it for the money, even though several have become rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

The thing about capitalism is that bad ideas die and good ideas continue to get funding.  In the non-capitalist system bad ideas just keep on going.  Polemic arguments should focus on mitigation of the undesired outcomes via regulation for example, rather than broadcast sweeping and false judgement about the system as a whole.

Now perhaps we can get back to the war in ukraine.  If anything the flexibility and depth of the capitalist system is making a good showing against the dogmatic intransigence of the autocrat in moscow in which failure is rewarded not by bankruptcy but by doubling down.

[Butschi]

28 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

If AI takes all our jobs, we can enjoy our well deserved pension

Which is paid for by... the currently working generation.

29 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Imo there will always be new jobs.

And that is a fallacy, I think. There is actually nothing to back it up apart from the fact that in the past it worked like this. But seriously, what kind of jobs would that be that can't be done by an AI or an AI controlled robot better and cheaper?

34 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

As the world is aging that's probably for the best, probably most people will work in healthcare by then.

Honestly, I very much hope that healthcare will be done by AIs in the future. I have seen so many instances of doctors having no clue and instead of looking into a database it even a book for that matter just gave a wrong diagnosis or just none at all and sent the patient on to the next doctor. I seriously fail to see how an AI could do worse.