How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The reason the EU is not mature enough geopolitically is not only that we have no common national identity, as you said, but also that we simply have no interest in becoming a superpower.

Because that sounds an awful lot like our recent colonial past.

And the USA has no interest in having the EU develop into a competitor, either.

Yes, but that means perpetual outsourcing of security on US and serious disagreements during crisies like this one, when interests do not entirely intersect. Trump, with all his trumpness, was right at this point (plus about not all members of NATO paying their fair share). One weekness of EU, in current or even more centralized version, is that it is constructed for good times of stable international order while nothing points toward 2nd decade of XXIst. century being one. Think about needs of decoupling with China and US not playing around with sentiments of some European actors. It may become ugly one day, when US will decide it needs to show who is really a boss. We saw it during 2003 Iraq war and massive protests against it; and that was very much optional war, not valid for Americans like potentiall conflict with China

About superpower status...yeah, you are right. But being able to project force, ability to make difficult decisions, securing near abroad (for example France in Africa) is already made anyway by singular state actors. I get there are countries with nasty colonial past, but I don't think it is good to be governed by shadows of the past in this way.  Being strong and decisive in international order also have positive and healthy effect on own population; it reaffirms what values societies are build on, and what it is worth to fight for. Not to mention that serious deterrence could actually save a lot of lives in countries abroad that are destibilized/attacked by others (Balkans anyone?).

Edited February 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[Lethaface]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I'm talking about irretrievable losses near Mariupol (killed + prisoners). So, if these numbers are to be believed, the Russians have devised a tactic to destroy the Ukrainian army without even surrounding it. Ukrainians lose more than if they were completely surrounded

I'm also talking about the losses in December, at that time they had not yet captured a single building in Soledar, the Ukrainians had already lost 3,500 people killed. If we take into account your statement, then after the capture of some corps, the losses of the Ukrainians increased even more and reached several brigades only killed. Do you seriously believe this?

So, we have come to the complete debunking of the myth that the losses of the defender and the losses of the attacker are equal even without taking into account the breakthrough of the defensive line by the attackers and the capture of many prisoners. It makes no sense to break through the enemy's line of defense, you can achieve parity in losses simply by attacking enemy positions over and over again. We made a discovery in tactical science

 

From what I've seen of Bakhmut area it would definitely surprise me if the casualties are comparable. 
But compared to Mariupol there are various other factors. One of which is why Mariupol was even able to hold so long (azovstal fortress).

Another is the scale, intensity and duration of the fighting. If the scale is larger, the total number of casualties will also be higher even if conditions are more favorable compared to a smaller battle. Russia is throwing very large numbers into the fray everyday. Same goes for intensity / duration.
The effectiveness of enemy also gets a vote. I think we are all concerned that their penal unit continuous infiltration wave tactics combined with drone adjusted artillery etc is costing heavier toll on Ukrainian defenders compared to previous battles. Especially compared to the columns of Russian AFVs eager to rush into the tank turret throwing competition. Although it seems new season for that has opened as well last few days.

Ultimately at least I don't know how bad the situation is. Ukr high command will by no means be perfect but has until now shown that they seem to know what they are doing rather well. 
Perhaps at high cost but even after 5months, Russia still doesn't have it's victory in Bakhmut. In the meantime Prigozhin the supposed prison rooster has risen and fell from grace. Maybe UKR high command looks at it from strategic POV? Bakhmut failing would sure cause a big stirrup among certain Russians I'd say.

 

[Lethaface]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

A taste of the front lines:

https://unherd.com/2023/02/the-madness-behind-the-battle-for-bakhmut/

Cheap drones and additively printed shells. I wonder who supplies the resin to knock out a T90? 

 

 

"Later, Coyote is in a playful mood. “What we sometimes also do,” he tells me, “is drop dildos from the drones, just to show them the contempt we have for them. Also, it’s a taste of what’s coming to them — how we’re going to **** them.” I ask what happens if they hit a Russian soldier on the head. Everyone laughs. Coyote, still looking mischievous, describes how they sometimes find lists of “heroic deaths” written on the walls of Russian positions they capture. “You know, they have a photo of the guy and under it ‘Vlad was killed by a Bayraktar’ and so on…. Imagine: ‘Here lies Sergei — he was killed by a massive cock.’”

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, but that means perpetual outsourcing of security on US and serious disagreements during crisies like this one, when interests do not entirely intersect. Trump, with all his trumpness, was right at this point (plus about not all members of NATO paying their fair share).

It's not so much that Europe has outsourced security to the US (and somehow fooled them into paying way more for defence than we do). It's that Europe imploded culturally, politically, and economically because of WW2, and the US then took over global leadership.

When Trump says it's "not fair" that EU countries pay less for military, that's based on the idea that we are somehow in an equal partnership. We are not. The USA is running the show, and EU is generally fine with that because the USA is way better than any alternative. And because we really don't want to be too assertive in global politics, telling people in other countries what to do... we've been there.

Also, while the US pays way more for NATO (in fact investing in its own superpower status), European countries spend way more of their GDP on international development and humanitarian aid. So it's not so much that we don't pay our part of the bill - we just pay different parts of it.

[cyrano01]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

BMP-2 of one of the Ukrainian units defending Bakhmut, knocks out the Wagnerites from one of the houses on the outskirts of the city

Interesting video and a pretty bold move. When I attempt anything similar, that close to possibly occupied buildings, in CMBS my BMP immediately finds itself on the receving end of an RPG, or something equally unpleasant and it turns into a bad day at the office.

Edited February 11, 2023 by cyrano01

[Zeleban]

41 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

Interesting video and a pretty bold move. When I attempt anything similar, that close to possibly occupied buildings, in CMBS my BMP immediately finds itself on the receving end of an RPG, or something equally unpleasant and it turns into a bad day at the office.

Infantry in CMBS are unusually bold and accurate, in addition, they are distinguished by excellent coordination.

[BornGinger]

This article has maybe already been mentioned here. It's quite an interesting read.

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline.

Edited February 11, 2023 by BornGinger

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

This article has maybe aleady been mentioned here. It's quite an interesting read.

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline.

It's also been strongly critiqued here: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

It's also been strongly critiqued here: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe

The fire just died out, we urgently need to throw firewood

[TheVulture]

53 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

Interesting video and a pretty bold move. When I attempt anything similar, that close to possibly occupied buildings, in CMBS my BMP immediately finds itself on the receving end of an RPG, or something equally unpleasant and it turns into a bad day at the office.

Bear in mind though that CM scenarios are designed to be competitive to a degree, while real life isn't under the same constraints. A scenario where one side has AFVs and the other had nothing that can hurt them is badly designed. In real life it just means that one side is screwed. And is therefore the kind of situation you want to create.

 

Most real life tanks never fire at another tank. The vast majority of CM tanks come up against other tanks.

[Haiduk]

Russians launched in produce for private funds newest portable anti-drone complex, including portable radar "Repeynik" (eng. "Bur") and automatical EW-turret SOZ-REB

This device was developed in 2021 under name "Volna" ("Wave") for civil purpose, but since war has started, military were interested in it and developers team was invited to Sestroretskiy wepon factory to improve own development. Likely since autumn 2022 first complex was in experimental use in PMC Wagner and near Kreminna. Since January 2023 Wagners already had three complexes. Now Repejnik reportedly launched in production for Wagners money.

On LostArmor forum Russian claims this system showed own high effectiveness. As if UKR troops lost "hundereds" of civil drones and almost were unable to conduct continous aerial recon and as if it was one of reason of successful push on the south from Bakhmut.

Russians on the forum claimed next indexed of effectiveness:

- complete drone isolated area - 9x9 km

- partailly drone isolated area - 21 x 21 km

- 371 targets detected

- 78 targets identified

- 12 targets destroyed 

- 60 targets jammed/supressed

Officially "Repeynik" has next data: scanning in passive mode, which makes it unseen for ELINT assets. When it detect a target, the operator, using visual interace on notebook can give the order on tracking of object to transmitting data to some command center or on EW/AA asset. But in this moment rardar comes to active mode. 

Complex can supress GPS/GLONASS, GSM900 and Wi-Fi on 2.4/5.2/5.8 Ghz 

They claimed Repeynik can detect commercial Mavic from 2 km and supress it from 1,2 km and even TB2 Bayraktar - detection from 4,5 km and supressing from 1,5 km . Though, on LostArmor some users, who have seen this device in action couldn't confirm that it can work against frequencies of special military fixed-wing drones. Also still a problem how to distinguish own detected drones from enemy, because simultainously in the air can be dozens of drones.

On the photo "Repeynik" radar and EW turret SOZ-REB

But despite on new super-weapon claim, UKR troops already destroyed first "Repeynik". UKR drone is filming working radar from several dozen meters %)

Destroyed radar and probably SOZ-REB or some anti-drone rifle nearby

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cyrano01 said:

Interesting video and a pretty bold move. When I attempt anything similar, that close to possibly occupied buildings, in CMBS my BMP immediately finds itself on the receving end of an RPG, or something equally unpleasant and it turns into a bad day at the office.

Here is the same situation. UKR soldiers of 54th mech.brigade (battalion K-2, former aerial recon group) assaults enemy platoon strongpoint "Barracuda" somewhere between Soledar and Siversk. Aerial recon spotted that Russians have in these trenches from 10 to 30 men, but to reach them, our troops have to overcome 300-400 m of open terrain. So, probably attack was launched, when Russians had minimal number of troops on position. Tactic - fast and bold advance of assault groups on BMP as close to positions as possible under cover the tank, then - direct assault.

Judging on video Russians had about dozen soldiers, UKR group has BMP with two squads and two tanks (one of them likely was in reserve if Russians take out attacking tank). In CM likely oppose side should have RPG-7 and additionally SPG-9 or some ATGM... But in real world Russians maybe had at least RPG, but they couldn't use it because were supressed with tank fire - almost point-blank. During the battle position was taken, several Russians were kileld, other, probably fled. UKR had one WIA. 

Video of assault (official K-2 Youtube has 18+restrictions, so I post the same video from NecroMancer's Youtube):

Edited February 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

When Trump says it's "not fair" that EU countries pay less for military, that's based on the idea that we are somehow in an equal partnership. We are not. The USA is running the show, and EU is generally fine with that because the USA is way better than any alternative. And because we really don't want to be too assertive in global politics, telling people in other countries what to do... we've been there.

Also, while the US pays way more for NATO (in fact investing in its own superpower status), European countries spend way more of their GDP on international development and humanitarian aid. So it's not so much that we don't pay our part of the bill - we just pay different parts of it.

Yes, but the problem with unequal partnerships with specialization of duties is they more susceptible to various global "Black Swans", especially of wars breaking out in close neighourhood. They also fuel sentiments in US- isolationists of all kinds may finally take over and push for primitive, mafia-like transactionism in international relations. We have just a probe of it in last years; I am not sure if Americans beside elites collectively even understand that they are superpower (even empire if some people prefer it) and how much world order (and own welfare) depends on it. Perception of populations in such partnerships on both sides is ongoing concern, on European side as well. Definitelly hope for US pivoting into Pacific too much/letting their leadership left in a wardrobe, is one of main points of Kremlin grand-strategy. Offshore power may, or may not be here- but Russia and other actors certainly will. That's why Europe needs to change its attitude regarding close neighbours on more prolific, even despite colonial shadows of some of its members.

Again good example of such prolific behaviour is France-it never left Africa, and its activities are not neocolonialism (despite perceptions of some) but rather minimalist stabilization efforts; one does not need to be superpower to do that. Otherwise we could probably already see several states in Africa being subdued by militant islamism. And we don't want that.

 

Somebody from Georgian Legion tried hard to develop this. But looks cool [one volunteer from IL severla months ago also told about Ukrainian unit using toy cars to lay mines, and even experimenting with contact charges against tanks]

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[Probus]

@Haidukis back. Woohoo! \o/

[Beleg85]

To do small offtop, here a piece directed and narrated by Nikita Mikhalkov, once Oscar-winning director and "ambassador of Russian culture" (before 2014).

How low he had fallen. And along with him, entire crowd of musicians, actors, writers and broadly people of culture.

[BornGinger]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

To do small offtop, here a piece directed and narrated by Nikita Mikhalkov...

Quote

... he’s reduced himself to producing absolutely laughable pieces of pro-war propaganda like this.

 

That one was beautiful. A "Z" that is around 150 years old. But what Mr. Mikhalkov forgot is that the Swastika is even older than that.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

[...] Even talk about balloons and Leopards would be an improvement (though not by much!).

Steve

Challenge accepted! 

[Kinophile]

Perhaps there was actually something afoot. 

 

But thus kind if internal congluct and maneuvers is exactly what an autocratic likes (to a degree). 

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Perhaps there was actually something afoot. 

 

But thus kind if internal congluct and maneuvers is exactly what an autocratic likes (to a degree). 

As I noted before...Prigozhin was never in a position to vie for power since he has no basis of support independent of the good will of Putin himself. Kadryov is indispensable in Chechnya while Surovikin could lay claim to the support of younger officers in the MOD. His time on the meat hook is coming.

 

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Bear in mind though that CM scenarios are designed to be competitive to a degree, while real life isn't under the same constraints. A scenario where one side has AFVs and the other had nothing that can hurt them is badly designed. In real life it just means that one side is screwed. And is therefore the kind of situation you want to create.

 

Most real life tanks never fire at another tank. The vast majority of CM tanks come up against other tanks.

That's not really what he's saying. CM in general is far too ultraviolent to imitate reality. Infantry incinerate everything they see far too quickly, particularly in urban areas.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Here is the same situation. UKR soldiers of 54th mech.brigade (battalion K-2, former aerial recon group) assaults enemy platoon strongpoint "Barracuda" somewhere between Soledar and Siversk. Aerial recon spotted that Russians have in these trenches from 10 to 30 men, but to reach them, our troops have to overcome 300-400 m of open terrain. So, probably attack was launched, when Russians had minimal number of troops on position. Tactic - fast and bold advance of assault groups on BMP as close to positions as possible under cover the tank, then - direct assault.

Judging on video Russians had about dozen soldiers, UKR group has BMP with two squads and two tanks (one of them likely was in reserve if Russians take out attacking tank). In CM likely oppose side should have RPG-7 and additionally SPG-9 or some ATGM... But in real world Russians maybe had at least RPG, but they couldn't use it because were supressed with tank fire - almost point-blank. During the battle position was taken, several Russians were kileld, other, probably fled. UKR had one WIA. 

Video of assault (official K-2 Youtube has 18+restrictions, so I post the same video from NecroMancer's Youtube):

That was some video!

Gives a uniquely detailed overview of a successful platoon assault on a Russian squad's position. Never seen anything quite like this one in combat footage history.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Most real life tanks never fire at another tank.

Well there needs to be some operational context put in place. Modern MBTs are designed to fight other tanks and provide infantry support. So much depends what's going on in the wider conflict, the terrain, air and artillery support and the need to risk MBTs going after the enemy's MBTs if other means of defeat exist. The mobile firepower and shock action of MBTs need not be deployed in mass. But at some point the enemy will have to try tank-tank engagements or else the flow of gasoline and armor might become battle winning. This assumes the armor is operating with protection from attack choppers and ATGMs. Very complex since armor should not act alone. 

Edited February 11, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

UKR armored utility vehicle "Novator" after being hit by "Lancet". Crew survived, vehicle will be moved to repair (new engine+wheel)

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

21 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Infantry incinerate everything they see far too quickly, particularly in urban areas

Including other infantry, Urban firefights are over in like a turn or so and casulties very very high. I think that may need some adjusting.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

This is interesting.  That looks to be four PGMs striking one after another.  To me this seems like the spotter made four different target designations, handed them off to the FDC as a single fire mission, and either the battery fired in sequence or one gun fired all four in succession.  Either way, that's something I've not seen before.

Steve