How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one I challenge.  How exactly?  It has definitely made people’s lives harder but what military or political objectives has it achieved?  Is Ukrainian morale about to collapse?  Has it hindered or damaged the UAs warfighting capability?  Has it slowed or stopped the flow of western support to the UA?  Has it set operational conditions in any sector for the RA to take back the offensive initiative?  Has it dislocated or disrupted a planned UA offensive?

wait.  You misinterpreted.  "RUS strategic strike infrastructure campaign is one of the most effective and dangerous things RUS has done."

This is true simply because the bar is so low.  Name something you think Russia has done that is effective and dangerous.  

[Kinophile]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-7-2023

I do love the ISW's droll bemusement style:

Quote

Considering that the recent rate of gains in this area has been on the order of a few hundred meters a day, at most, it is highly unlikely that Russian forces will be successful in cohering a mechanized push towards these GLOCs and move towards encircling Bakhmut.[2] Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut would still have GLOCs available even if the Russians cut the E40, moreover, making the entire discussion of an encirclement at this point bizarre.

Their sentences can be over-long and awkwardly constructed, but the commentary is spot on.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The Kyiv Independent had an article on the Skala Battalion a few days ago too, with a bit more tactical info and a more sober take on how Bakhmut is doing - https://kyivindependent.com/national/hell-in-high-definition-inside-front-line-aerial-unit-surveilling-battle-of-bakhmut

Very good article, really levelled unlike those about "zombie hords of Wagnerites" attacking in waves. Note how they lost contact with their own soldiers, and find it hard to identify if figures fighting in the trenches they see through drone camera were theirs or Russians.

So yeah, it looks like average day in the trenches of I WW. You killed 2 of mine, I killed 3 of yours. Not that much of tactical brilliance or decisive actions. Attrition on both sides that leads to probably nothing.

Edited January 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

wait.  You misinterpreted.  "RUS strategic strike infrastructure campaign is one of the most effective and dangerous things RUS has done."

This is true simply because the bar is so low.  Name something you think Russia has done that is effective and dangerous.  

Destabilize their entire country and risk having that instability spread into its near abroad.  Well there is that and playing nuclear chicken with the US.

[kevinkin]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/

Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts, Kyiv military intelligence says
Ukrainian officials predict the new Russian draft effort will begin after January 15.

The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday.  

Mother Russia will surely become a land of women. Maybe they will bring peace to a tortured nation. In meantime, this war could get even uglier. 

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Fog of war is a pain. we don't know what targets Russia is hitting that aren't terror bombing that are affecting the ability of the UKR government and industry focused on the war, and Ukraine isn't likely to say anything, and has penalized any independent information within Ukraine and with the amount of Russian lies, it can be hard to find the truth kernels with them. 

Certainly, we know that Ukraine has continued production of various war materials and equipment, what we don't know is if Russia has knowledge and capability to strike them, and if they have, but we can probably guess they do on either count due to prior history of Russian internal infiltration into Ukraine.

We know they have been concentrating on electrical infrastructure.  Have we had any reports on strikes on Ukrainian arms industry?  Any evidence of that effect being felt on the front lines?  Reports of arms and ammo shortages?  Every video I see of the UA shows them better kitted out than most NATO nations,

Koffman et al - ie “the experts” did not say “we probably guess”, they said it was the most “effective and dangerous” thing the Russians have done in this war without a shred of proof as far as I can tell.  We also know that western equipment and support is flowing into the country, and based on that shellacking they gave that troop depot, ISR still works.

My point is that people throw these things around without any evidence.  The UA did a long range strike campaign and people saw the RA react, they pulled out of Kherson.  We saw a bunch of Russian missiles, likely the nearing the bottom of their supply and what have we actually seen?

Dangerous and effective means outcomes.  What outcomes have we seen as a result of the RA missile campaign?

[Battlefront.com]

Politico has an article about Ukraine's GUR has intel that Russia is getting ready to conscript another 500,000 to prepare for next year.  If this happens they will be cannon fodder for sure as Russia absolutely does not have the capacity to train and equip a force of that size in any meaningful way.  Pushing battalion sized units of barely trained, barely equipped conscripts might even be problematic from a logistics standpoint.

If this mobilization happens it will be interesting to see how well it is received by the Russia population.  Unlike the last one, it seems likely to be aimed at the big urban centers.  Probably because they've picked clean so many rural and distant areas of men.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This one I challenge.  How exactly?  It has definitely made people’s lives harder but what military or political objectives has it achieved?  Is Ukrainian morale about to collapse?  Has it hindered or damaged the UAs warfighting capability?  Has it slowed or stopped the flow of western support to the UA?  Has it set operational conditions in any sector for the RA to take back the offensive initiative?  Has it dislocated or disrupted a planned UA offensive?

What has this infrastructure campaign actually achieved? And based on numbers being thrown around it maybe Russia’s last.  If Russia had concentrated all its operational and strategic strike on electricity, communications and transportation in the first month of the war, specifically targeting the UAs ability to operationally project and sustain - that is effective and dangerous.  Instead they have been wasting thousands of missiles on terror strikes, and now they finally land on electricity but it is too late and too disconnected.  There opponent has already hardened and dug in both physically and mentally.  This last campaign still lacks any linkages to military objectives as far as I can tell, and it is at cost the RA will be unable to recover from.

It is stuff like this that really makes me wonder where some of these guys are coming from.

Koffman has talked about it for while. I think this is uncontroversial.

Let's then word it another way. The strike campaing is the least stupid thing RUS has done in a while.

Ammo and what to defend dilemmas did force UKR to start migrating to western AA systems ASAP. And the strikes are effecting UKR state capacity. He did state that morale is not a problem and exact effects are impossible to know from open source.

Koffman thinks that the previous use its of these long range fires was close to totally useless. Couple of cruise missile per airbase or against tactical targets here or there. The latest campaign has been an immense improvement to that. Thankfully RUS already had exhausted most of their long range Ammo.

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This one I challenge.  How exactly?  It has definitely made people’s lives harder but what military or political objectives has it achieved?  Is Ukrainian morale about to collapse?  Has it hindered or damaged the UAs warfighting capability?  Has it slowed or stopped the flow of western support to the UA?  Has it set operational conditions in any sector for the RA to take back the offensive initiative?  Has it dislocated or disrupted a planned UA offensive?

What has this infrastructure campaign actually achieved? And based on numbers being thrown around it maybe Russia’s last.  If Russia had concentrated all its operational and strategic strike on electricity, communications and transportation in the first month of the war, specifically targeting the UAs ability to operationally project and sustain - that is effective and dangerous.  Instead they have been wasting thousands of missiles on terror strikes, and now they finally land on electricity but it is too late and too disconnected.  There opponent has already hardened and dug in both physically and mentally.  This last campaign still lacks any linkages to military objectives as far as I can tell, and it is at cost the RA will be unable to recover from.

It is stuff like this that really makes me wonder where some of these guys are coming from.

Aka, “the bomber always gets through” and then civilian resistance becomes stronger.

[fireship4]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What has this infrastructure campaign actually achieved?

I've seen it suggested it may encourage the movement of anti-missile systems away from the front, making it more vulnerable, and run down their supplies, so the RuAF can fly at higher altitudes.

 

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Humans are biologically tailored towards short term thinking.

I cannot agree with this.  People under duress may think on shorter time scales, with the aim of surviving day-to-day, when thinking further ahead and the effort required to sacrifice for tomorrow are too taxing on their limited resources.  Living further from the edge may allow for clearer thinking, and saving up for a decent pair of boots which will cost less in the long run.

Edited January 8, 2023 by fireship4

[Grossman]

Putin's operatives in Berlin

 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-germany-influencers

[JonS]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This one I challenge.

At the risk of piling on ...

Quote

"one of"

"the most"

"effective and dangerous"

"things they've done"

Russia has done a lot of things. This is one of them. Of the things they have done, this one is amongst the most dangerous and effective. Not necessarily dangerous or effective in an absolute sense, but in a relative sense.

Also, just because you haven't seen an effect, that doesn't mean there hasn't been an effect. Strategic campaigns by their nature tend to be slow burn - thinking about the US sub campaign against Japan in WWII or the RN blockade of Germany in WWI here. Or the USN/RN/RCN campaign against the U-Boasts in WWII. In all three cases there was no identifiable break point where the campaign was clearly "won" or at least "winning", instead there just cumulative corrosion/attrition of the opposing side's ability to sustain/oppose the ongoing campaign, and in the case of the blockades against Germany and Japan the consequent widespread impact on those nation's ability to wage or even sustain the war.

Fast forward to 2022. If Russia is able to sustain widespread interdiction of Ukraine's national grid, then it reasonably follows that there will be a consequent impact on Ukraines ability to sustain or wage the war. Yes, bullets and bombs will probably keep showing up on the Polish border. Yes, most all of the noisy mil kit runs on diesel or petrol, and the deployed stuff that runs on electricity can be powered by portable generators. But that isn't really true of higher, base, or fixed mil infrastructure. And it certainly isn't true of the civilian economy. No sparks means no cooking. It also means no traffic lights, or radio, or - critically - interwebs. Even if that effect is regionally isolated to "only" Kyiv and points east of the Dnipro, that would still seriously impact on Ukraine's ability to wage war at the way it has been, and deny the success that approach has bought them.

And that mostly ignores the impact on an already very battered civilian economy.

 

IF

Russia can sustain their strike campaign

AND

Russia doesn't drop a nut and revert to sprinkling love all over the place rather than concentrating on coherent and achievable goals

AND

the West's AD assistance/gifts prove niggardly and/or ineffective

AND

etc.

THEN,

yeah: the strike campaign could prove dangerous and effective in both an absolute as well as relative sense.

Edited January 8, 2023 by JonS

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

At the risk of piling on ...

Russia has done a lot of things. This is one of them. Of the things they have done, this one is amongst the most dangerous and effective. Not necessarily dangerous or effective in an absolute sense, but in a relative sense.

Also, just because you haven't seen an effect, that doesn't mean there hasn't been an effect. Strategic campaigns by their nature tend to be slow burn - thinking about the US sub campaign against Japan in WWII or the RN blockade of Germany in WWI here. Or the USN/RN/RCN campaign against the U-Boasts in WWII. In all three cases there was no identifiable break point where the campaign was clearly "won" or at least "winning", instead there just cumulative corrosion/attrition of the opposing side's ability to sustain/oppose the ongoing campaign, and in the case of the blockades against Germany and Japan the consequent widespread impact on those nation's ability to wage or even sustain the war.

Fast forward to 2022. If Russia is able to sustain widespread interdiction of Ukraine's national grid, then it reasonably follows that there will be a consequent impact on Ukraines ability to sustain or wage the war. Yes, bullets and bombs will probably keep showing up on the Polish border. Yes, most all of the noisy mil kit runs on diesel or petrol, and the deployed stuff that runs on electricity can be powered by portable generators. But that isn't really true of higher, base, or fixed mil infrastructure. And it certainly isn't true of the civilian economy. No sparks means no cooking. It also means no traffic lights, or radio, or - critically - interwebs. Even if that effect is regionally isolated to "only" Kyiv and points east of the Dnipro, that would still seriously impact on Ukraine's ability to wage war at the way it has been, and deny the success that approach has bought them.

And that mostly ignores the impact on an already very battered civilian economy.

IF Russia can sustain their strike campaign AND IF Russia doesn't drop a nut and revert to sprinkling love all over the place rather than concentrating on coherent and achievable goals AND the wests AD assistance proves niggardly and/or ineffective AND etc. THEN, yeah: the strike campaign could prove dangerous and effective in both an absolute as well as relative sense.

Yes, but what is the point of this particular campaign? What will be the effect if civilians are cut off from electricity? Hospitals have constant power supply, critical infrastructure enterprises are also supplied uninterruptedly. From this we can conclude that military production also has a constant power supply (After all, they are vital in this situation).

What is the strategic meaning of TEMPORARY disconnection of SOME (far from all cities there are problems with light) residents of Ukraine from electricity? Do they think that we will go to Zelensky and demand to put up with Putin? For what? So that in a couple of months the Russians will once again accumulate strength and temporarily deprive us of electricity? Maybe they think that it matters to us whether they will rob us, kill and rape us with light or in complete darkness? You seem to know more than the rest about the Russian military strategy, enlighten me, what does this make sense?

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

Wagner’s Desensitized Prison Fighters Keep Staggering Into Bakhmut Like This Is a Zombie Apocalypse (yahoo.com)

A Ukrainian officer serving in the East, who asked to remain anonymous, ventured an estimate of a dozen casualties a day.

...Just Bakhmut.

FWIW, MacGregor claims a battalion (300) per day UKR losses, all fronts (although some RT shills try to claim that's KIA only). That would be at the very high end, e.g. during the summer Russian artillery offensives. 

But 150-180 on average these days wouldn't surprise me, given the intense fighting here plus the ongoing probing operations in Svatove-Kreminna and around Torske.

...So in nearly 320 days of war, total UKR combat losses (KIA/WIA) MAY run in the nature of 60 - 70k? (65k / 450k prewar + TD = 14.5%)

Russian losses seem to run some 4 x that (albeit from c.3.5x population base). Say half suffered by separs, mobiks and zeks (45k alone) and the rest by their professional land army of c.700k.  140 / 700 = 20%

Edited January 8, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

12 hours ago, Kinophile said:

There's a point where Poland et al are just going to say "GTFOOTW,  Scholz, there's a war on. " They'll start ignoring legal squawking and do what they need to do,  no matter what the Germans say.

Which gets quite tricky within a cooperative military alliance...

I don't know about the legal aspect, so I won't speculate on it. Let's assume that Poland can get away with it.

Just to counter the notion, voiced here quite a few times, that it is just Scholz' ego that stands in the way. The most recent poll shows that only 38% of the Germans is in favour of giving Leos to Ukraine (50% against). While some (even influential) parliamentarians of the coalition parties have called for Leos to Ukraine, the parties as a whole seem to think otherwise or at least are on a firm leash. And the chancellor most definitely has the backing of the electorate.

[LongLeftFlank]

28 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

dupe

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/07/i-have-not-seen-any-but-hear-that-nafo-patches-are-being-worn-in-the-field/

No AAR in this one, but a few snips.

One of the things I am writing on that I think we all have learned is that the typical recon maneuver techniques are not working all that well in this winter/mixed terrain and with the proliferation of drones. Terrain matching is much more important than the typical maneuvers

Still thinking that a ghillie suit/cloak with a kevlar lining, to mask IR and provide limited protection from grenade fragments and the like would make a lot of sense in this kind of war.

Edited January 8, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

Found on several sites. The Germans do their part, just not making as much noise about it as others. Typical German.

"Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom.

German materiel support already delivered to Ukraine includes one IRIS-T SLM SAM system, 30 Gepard SPAAGs, five M270 MLRS, 14 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns (SPGs) along with guided artillery rounds, 3200 man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), close to 10.000 Panzerfaust 3 and RWG 90 MATADOR anti-tank weapons, hundreds of vehicles, nearly 22 million rounds of ammunition and a plethora of other equipment including 28.000 helmets and MiG-29 spare parts. These deliveries are soon to be followed by a further three IRIS-T SLM SAM systems and seven Gepard SPAAGs. Berlin also contributed at least €2 billion to Ukraine's security capacity building fund with which the Ukrainian government can purchase armament from other countries, including a further 100 PzH 2000s and 18 RCH-155 SPGs from German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.

Germany is also the largest contributor to the refinancing fund of the European Peace Facility, which so far has enabled the provision of 2.5 billion euro, to be made available between 2022 and 2026, to support the delivery of military equipment of EU member states to the Ukrainian armed forces."

Edited January 8, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Zeleban]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom.

German materiel support already delivered to Ukraine includes one IRIS-T SLM SAM system, 30 Gepard SPAAGs, five M270 MLRS, 14 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns (SPGs) along with guided artillery rounds, 3200 man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), close to 10.000 Panzerfaust 3 and RWG 90 MATADOR anti-tank weapons, hundreds of vehicles, nearly 22 million rounds of ammunition and a plethora of other equipment including 28.000 helmets and MiG-29 spare parts. These deliveries are soon to be followed by a further three IRIS-T SLM SAM systems and seven Gepard SPAAGs. Berlin also contributed at least €2 billion to Ukraine's security capacity building fund with which the Ukrainian government can purchase armament from other countries, including a further 100 PzH 2000s and 18 RCH-155 SPGs from German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.

Germany is also the largest contributor to the refinancing fund of the European Peace Facility, which so far has enabled the provision of 2.5 billion euro, to be made available between 2022 and 2026, to support the delivery of military equipment of EU member states to the Ukrainian armed forces.

Yes, but 50% of the German population is against it. Scholz is forced to act in the interests of a minority

Edited January 8, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Ukrainians do not like Scholz in vain, because he acts in their interests, ignoring even the interests of the Germans themselves.

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Ukrainians do not like Scholz in vain, because he acts in their interests, ignoring even the interests of the Germans themselves.

I think, Scholz is gradually shifting own position about heavy wepon for Ukraine not because he wants to act in interests of Ukraine, but because he suffers a pressure from USA side (and likely is getting some benefit offers from them) as well as from inner forces in local politicum and large business, which also as for me has 50/50 position - either to support Ukraine with heavy weapon or do not spoil the relationship with Russia for future (+ "guilt memory" for WWII). 

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

What is the strategic meaning of TEMPORARY disconnection of SOME (far from all cities there are problems with light) residents of Ukraine from electricity? Do they think that we will go to Zelensky and demand to put up with Putin? For what? So that in a couple of months the Russians will once again accumulate strength and temporarily deprive us of electricity? Maybe they think that it matters to us whether they will rob us, kill and rape us with light or in complete darkness? You seem to know more than the rest about the Russian military strategy, enlighten me, what does this make sense?

I'm not the guy you replied to, but I think the purpose of hitting Ukraine's power facilities was to make life in Ukraine untolerable for millions of civilians, who would then flee the country and become refugees  - in a Europe that already struggles with large numbers of them. This would then in theory turn the public against supporting Ukraine.

A secondary benefit would be that Ukraine would be forced to spend their advanced AA missiles on shooting down cheap drones, making life less dangerous for Russian aviation.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but 50% of the German population is against it. Scholz is forced to act in the interests of a minority

Germany needs to grow up and realize it's responsibility for the safety of Europe. And leave the past behind if it's a threat for the future.

[Zeleban]

19 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

A secondary benefit would be that Ukraine would be forced to spend their advanced AA missiles on shooting down cheap drones, making life less dangerous for Russian aviation.

The main damage to infrastructure was not caused by cheap drones, but by expensive cruise and ballistic missiles. At the same time, you need to think about what is more expensive than a cruise missile or an anti-aircraft missile that shoots it down

[Haiduk]

UKR tank after Lancet strike. ERA is worked properly - 4 blocks were activated, one was damaged. Explosion also damaged smoke grenade launcher, also was dmaged external fuel tank

[Haiduk]

How Pion turned to Tiulpan - UKR 2S7 lost a barrel after the shot. The barrel has flown away with a shell and fell in several dozen meters

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Haiduk