How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think we are taking a lot of notes on this war - https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canadian-army-eyeing-new-weapons-in-response-to-lessons-learned-from-ukraine-war-1.6212004

I know I am, and every now and then someone does a still ask me.

I'd hope so

[potato4212]

is there plans for Bradley's to get APS? Funny how in black sea Abrams and Bradley have them. but even now only a few Abrams units have APS

[kevinkin]

The other option is a truce and peace talks like the various negotiations that characterized the later years of the war in Vietnam. Hanoi used those breaks to rebuild for counteroffensives in 1968, 1972 and finally in 1975. Kyiv would have the same option. Supplied by American arms, Zelenskyy would likely plan further gains while Putin would get no real reprieve.

There is one for those watching the clock.  But this approach still need to acknowledge UA losses during time of combat. 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/12/28/putin-grasping-wonder-weapon-hypersonic-missiles-wont-help-russia.html

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The other option is a truce and peace talks like the various negotiations that characterized the later years of the war in Vietnam. Hanoi used those breaks to rebuild for counteroffensives in 1968, 1972 and finally in 1975. Kyiv would have the same option. Supplied by American arms, Zelenskyy would likely plan further gains while Putin would get no real reprieve.

There is one for those watching the clock.  But this approach still need to acknowledge UA losses during time of combat. 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/12/28/putin-grasping-wonder-weapon-hypersonic-missiles-wont-help-russia.html

Not sure negotiating in bad faith is the best play.  I mean I agree Russia is in a terrible strategic position but this entire premise ignores the realities of strategic narrative.  Further it could end up reinforcing Russian will to continue.

All war is sacrifice and negotiation.  Sullying one could taint the other.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Splinty said:

Facts. But one thing the US military is good at is getting lots of stuff moved long distances very quickly. If they pull the trigger on the Bradley deal, most of the logistical support could be moved in relatively quickly. The various command and maintenance facilities are already there. And there are are US division support facilities forward in Poland as well.  

Yup, and as Huba pointed out it only takes about a month of transit time.  Add a couple of weeks to the stateside end of things to get vehicles and parts ready, we're talking about 6 weeks to have them in Europe.  What do you suppose an decelerated training time is for Ukrainian BMP crews to operate Bradleys?  I'm guessing it's not quicker than the delivery time, which means they could train on some of the pre-positioned vehicles or loaners from active US units and be ready for them by the time theirs are ready for them.

Steve

[Splinty]

I think that with an accelerated gunnery rotation at Grafenwoher and maneuver training at Hohenfels you could stand up a battalion in six weeks. It would be pretty bare bones, but with US trainers and an obviously determined and already battle experienced Ukrainian student body it would work.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I think that with an accelerated gunnery rotation at Grafenwoher and maneuver training at Hohenfels you could stand up a battalion in six weeks. It would be pretty bare bones, but with US trainers and an obviously determined and already battle experienced Ukrainian student body it would work.

Excellent!  Thanks for the thoughts on that.  Based on other accelerated training I think that sounds just about right.  Seems quite a few fall into the not less than 1 month not more than 2 months range.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

We should file this in the huge "You can't make this stuff up" cabinet draw: Belarus demands Ukraine explain why an S-300, supposedly from Ukraine, landed on Belarus soil after Russia launched a barrage of missiles from within its territory:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-belarus-downed-missile-russia-provocation/

Whatever the case may be in reality, Ukraine is doing the right thing by suggesting the missile was a Russian ploy to try and trick Belarus into joining the fight directly.  That really screws with Belarus' narrative.

Steve

[kevinkin]

There has been some concerns over the US Sealift Command's operational readiness when the balloon goes up.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-stress-tests-ships-that-would-carry-troops-to-war-2019-9

The transport of Bradley IFVs to Europe should be no issue, but good training nevertheless. I think the real concern is related to their vulnerability in the Pacific as opposed to the Atlantic. A lot of talk about pre-positioning stuff to minimize the risk to cargo ships during a war. 

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We should file this in the huge "You can't make this stuff up" cabinet draw: Belarus demands Ukraine explain why an S-300, supposedly from Ukraine, landed on Belarus soil after Russia launched a barrage of missiles from within its territory:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-belarus-downed-missile-russia-provocation/

Whatever the case may be in reality, Ukraine is doing the right thing by suggesting the missile was a Russian ploy to try and trick Belarus into joining the fight directly.  That really screws with Belarus' narrative.

Steve

I believe the correct term for this is 'chutzpah'. 

[LongLeftFlank]

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-sitrep-counter-artillery-war-financial-desaster.html

Borderline treasonable MoA blog talks up last month's Russian counterbattery campaign around Bakhmut, which I would guess is quite real.  House artillery experts?

A special cell was created to wage the fight against Ukrainian artillery around Donetsk. More counter artillery radars were moved in. More satellite picture interpreters began to look for firing positions. Longer range counter battery guns also appeared.

Over the last ten days the campaign began to show significant results....

Anybody's guess as to what the actual results are of course, or whether Ivan took some losses in return, but no doubt there are some.

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-sitrep-counter-artillery-war-financial-desaster.html

Borderline treasonable MoA blog talks up last month's Russian counterbattery campaign around Bakhmut, which I would guess is quite real.  House artillery experts?

A special cell was created to wage the fight against Ukrainian artillery around Donetsk. More counter artillery radars were moved in. More satellite picture interpreters began to look for firing positions. Longer range counter battery guns also appeared.

Over the last ten days the campaign began to show significant results....

Anybody's guess as to what the actual results are of course, or whether Ivan took some losses in return, but no doubt there are some.

 I poked around the site a bit, the whole thing is so far down the rabbit hole it isn't really worth analyzing. 

[Battlefront.com]

This article is from about a year ago, but I've not seen anything more recent.  It's about the Army's proposed Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV).  The test results were not good at all even before this war, I'm wondering if the war has put this project in even more doubt.  Looks like the only thing this would be good for is getting a lot of people killed.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/01/28/us-army-vehicle-ineffective-combat/

Steve

[BlackMoria]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This article is from about a year ago, but I've not seen anything more recent.  It's about the Army's proposed Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV).  The test results were not good at all even before this war, I'm wondering if the war has put this project in even more doubt.  Looks like the only thing this would be good for is getting a lot of people killed.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/01/28/us-army-vehicle-ineffective-combat/

Steve

Hell, they would be better off with a RAM 2500 4x4 HD with a Cummins diesel, wield armor plates all over it, and make it roar with a Mk19 or M2 mount in the bed.   It would make it more effective and a hell of lot cheaper.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Hell, they would be better off with a RAM 2500 4x4 HD with a Cummins diesel, wield armor plates all over it, and make it roar with a Mk19 or M2 mount in the bed.   It would make it more effective and a hell of lot cheaper.

Maybe we can trade the Ukrainians some Bradleys for some

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, BlackMoria said:

Hell, they would be better off with a RAM 2500 4x4 HD with a Cummins diesel, wield armor plates all over it, and make it roar with a Mk19 or M2 mount in the bed.   It would make it more effective and a hell of lot cheaper.

The ray of hope in the article is that is sounds like they are not going to buy it. I truly can't see doing a vehicle like that doesn't have some sort of weapon mount, the soldiers facing out, and a hybrid drive that could run silent for at least five or ten kilometers. It might not make any sense to do it all.

[Battlefront.com]

Saw a report that trigger happy Russian air defenses shot down one of their own planes approaching Engels airbase thinking it was another Ukrainian attack.  Any conformation?

Steve

[sross112]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

I think that with an accelerated gunnery rotation at Grafenwoher and maneuver training at Hohenfels you could stand up a battalion in six weeks. It would be pretty bare bones, but with US trainers and an obviously determined and already battle experienced Ukrainian student body it would work.

So from a force transition stand point. The 93rd Mech Brigade was just recently pulled from the line. This unit is known as one of the best veteran formations and has been in the thick of it from the beginning. Pretty much a fire brigade. So experienced leadership and competent veteran personnel. Just hypothetically, they get a little R&R, soak up replacements and get sent off to Poland and Germany to train with Bradleys and maybe other NATO kit (Leopard 2's?). How long until they are as efficient as they were before the transition? Does the 8 weeks with a veteran unit have them back in the ring with the same or better efficiency or do they need more time?

I'm just a leg infantry guy so I don't know much about the fancy side of mechanized stuff. I'd think that they would be as good or better due to better, more lethal and more survivable kit. The talk in here says force generation takes a lot more time but I'd think force transition in equipment would be much faster with better results? Not getting into the maintenance side, just the pointy end stuff.

Thanks.

[FancyCat]

Thread with notables chiming in on Bradley potential, including General Hertling, and Jack Watling from RUSI. Quite positive. So is the majority of Ukraine's IFV force composed of BMP-1s and not more modernized stuff?

 

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

Not a NATO one, but I'm sure the Chinese are watching attentively and taking notes as we speak.

And selling equipment to both sides.  Aside from quadcopters, right at the start of the Terra video they mentioned the Eco-Flow generator. Those are portable multi kWh battery packs that are also made in China.  Presumably they're using them to charge the drone (made in China) batteries.

[JonS]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian counterbattery campaign around Bakhmut, which I would guess is quite real.

I mean ... on the surface the things - the system elements - described sound more than plausible. If anything it's weird that the Russians didn't have them in place already. It almost reads like someone recently read Palazzo's 1991 article on the CBSO and just changed some of the jargon to make it relevant to 2022 rather than 1917. By that I mean that the CB system described sounds decades out of date.

Theres also a bit of cake-ism going on. The Ukrainians are woefully outgunned and starved for ammunition AND they have resources to waste pointlessly blowing up bits of Donetsk? Huh?

That just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. An underdog that is successful in any conflict doesnt get there by wasting resources. Also I get the very strong impression that - if anything - the Ukrainians are drowning in the firehose flood of real time intel. I expect they have more viable targets than they know what to do with, and their target prioritisation matrices are getting applied constantly. There's no point wasting rounds on housing in a city they expect to control soon enough when there are viable military targets galore. 

Or, you know, just not shooting for a bit. Masking batterys and conserving ammo is not "waste" when it's done with intent and to serve another end.

There's also an somewhat naive acceptance of Russian propaganda as being credible and reliable. I'd be tempted to call that charming if I thought it were done in good faith.

So, overall? I'd say it was wishful thinking in terms of its read on what the Ukrainians are up to, and very mutton-dressed-as-lamb in terms of its read of what the Russians are doing.

Edited December 30, 2022 by JonS

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

I mean ... on the surface the things - the system elements - described sound more than plausible. If anything it's weird that the Russians didn't have them in place already. It almost reads like someone recently read Palazzo's 1991 article on the CBSO and just changed some of the jargon to make it relevant to 2022 rather than 1917. By that I mean that the CB system described sounds decades out of date.

Theres also a bit of cake-ism going on. The Ukrainians are woefully outgunned and starved for ammunition AND they have resources to waste pointlessly blowing up bits of Donetsk? Huh?

That just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. An underdog that is successful in any conflict doesnt get there by wasting resources.

Thanks Jon, I was hoping you'd take a prod at what little substance there is there. 

And sure, everbody here knows 98% of the site is regurgitated RT prop and hate-Amrika-First which is a waste of time reading, still less quoting. 

Just that one small snip struck me as plausible though, as least in terms of it being the right kind of thing to put some effort into in that sector.

...OTOH, the New Yorker long piece I posted a couple days ago describes some pretty intense and accurate RU artillery.

P.S. MoA are downright pikers when it comes to Kremlin tub thumping.  MacGregor's 'sources' now have the Russians killing hohols in the Bahmut sector at a ratio of 10 to 1.

In their own good time, he says, white clad Belarusian tankers will slash southwards to Lviv, opposed only by women and a few Polish mercs, plus the speed bump of the 82nd Airborne.  Meanwhile, Surovikin's pincers will close on the shattered remains of UA east of the Dnepr. URRRAAAAA(nus)!!!!!!!

Edited December 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kevinkin]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-unaccustomed-to-losing-is-increasingly-isolated-as-war-falters/ar-AA15NItw

Luka better stay away from windows this New Year. And have the caviar checked with a Geiger counter to be on the safe side. 

When Vladimir Putin visited Minsk last week to discuss deepening cooperation, a sarcastic joke by his host, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, seemed to ring all too true. “The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet. We have only one dispute: Who is the bigger one? That’s all,” Lukashenko said.

[The_MonkeyKing]

TIL:
Ukraine Poised to Become First Operator of 150-Kilometer Precision Bomb:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/

So the same idea as NASAMS meaning adapting the plentiful and hightech airlaunched munitions to groundlaunch. This time it is just precision guided bombs.

[Kinophile]

I think we'll then be able correllate the rate of destruction of RUS  mech with the rate of defenestration of VVS Generals...