How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Svatove news:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/24/2143606/-Ukraine-update-The-battle-for-Svatove-approaches-as-Ukraine-reportedly-liberates-four-more-villages

Meanwhile Denys Davydov reports that UKR counterattacking around Bakhmut.

 

[MOS:96B2P]

I don't think anyone had a problem with you posting about Tucker Carlson's attack on Republicans and on Zelensky.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Or do you think that we should use relevance to be our guide?  If you believe the latter, then what's the objection to my posting of Carlson's deliberate and degrading attack on Zelensky's historic speech before Congress?

I don't like feeling I have to censor myself because a few people get offended Carlson is part of a faction of this war and I don't think ignoring him, of the faction he is a part of, is helpful.

Steve

But if your honest about it, you did more than post about Carlson didn't you?  You have gone on to paint all Republicans and all of Fox News with the same broad brush as Tucker Carlson.  (Full Disclosure; I watch Special Report with Bret Baier at 5pm on Fox. I recommend Special Report. It's hard news and has both Democrats and Republicans intelligently discussing the issues. I also watch a lot of the Fox Business channel.) 

I even tried to get you to clarify what you meant by "wingnuts".  Below is a quote of my post.  I seems you chose to ignore my post and went on to argue with other posters who inevitably and predictably pushed back on your "broad brush" post.      

17 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

IMO Tucker Carslon is unbelievably out of touch and doesn't understand the facts about Ukraine or the Ukraine war.  This, sadly, is nothing new.  He has been banging on in this manner, on this topic, for about a year now.  He deserves to be called out, challenged and debated.  He is wrong and history will prove him wrong.  I don't think anything has changed with his latest anti-Ukraine, anti-Republican broadcast.  

The last I understood both Republicans, Democrats and Independents (basically most Americans) stand with Ukraine.  Including the Republican leadership.  There are links in this thread of House Republicans supporting Ukraine.  I understand Carlson got under your skin but I don't understand the wingnuts comment. 

Has something changed?  Or was it just another anti-Ukraine, anti-Republican rant by Tucker?       

I stand with you against Tucker as I think everyone on this forum probably does.  The only push back you got is when you used a broad brush against BFC customers who are Republicans and/or customers who watch any Fox news.  You said yourself that Tucker attacked "old" Republicans.  You went on to defend the Ukrainians (as was proper IMO) but then turned and took your own shot (wingnuts?) at Republicans.  You then compelled some of those customers to push back even if they were initially with you.  You really think that veteran, combat medic, Beta tester you admonished is pro-Russian?  C-mon Man!!!  You did (caused) that!!        

IMO the proper way to deal with situations like Tucker Carlson is not to censor, band, dox, investigate, harass his family, send the IRS or FBI in order to shut him down because we disagree with him.  But instead use him as an opportunity to debate and show in a reasonable, intelligent way why our ideas are better (because they are).    

It seems Tucker likes to debate (yell and argue often) people on his show.  You, Steve, would be an excellent person to go on Fox and put him in his place.  If you said the word many of us here could call, e-mail, Twitter, FB his office.  I think the odds are better than 50% he would eventually give in and debate you.  You would have an audience of four million on one of the most popular shows in the US. Even if you only connected with one million of the viewers think how great that would be for the Ukrainian cause.  In theory it might be good exposure for BFC.  The computer game designer that predicted the war and spanked Tucker.     

[OldSarge]

14 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Pat Lang, stalwart conservative and no fan of JRB 46 (albeit no fan of DJT 45 either), has been onside from the start.

https://turcopolier.com/the-story-of-carol-of-the-bells-a-christmas-classic-born-in-ukraine-ttg/

 

Thank you for the link. I'll never again be able to hear 'Carol of the Bells' without thinking about its origins as the Ukrainian folk song  Щедрик (Shchedryk). BTW, for anyone interested, there are some beautiful arrangements on YT in its original form.
 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by OldSarge
Added link

[sburke]

WP has a good article on the logistics push for Ukraine,  probably paywalled, but this was an interesting bit for current state

Inside the monumental, stop-start effort to arm Ukraine - The Washington Post

Quote

 

As combat has reached a stalemate with the arrival of winter, and while the still-outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainians prepare new offensives to regain more Russian-occupied territory, the plan is to train them to fight more like Americans.

Over the next several months, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops — a massive increase from the relatively small groups that have been pulled off the battlefield to master new weapons this year — are being brought to Europe to learn and put to use new tactics against the deeply dug-in Russians in the eastern Donbas region and the southern Black Sea coast.

Pentagon eyes major expansion of Ukraine military training

“I think if we can train larger formations — companies, battalions — on how to employ fires, create conditions for maneuver, and then be able to maneuver like you’ve seen [the U.S. military] maneuver on the battlefield, then I think we’re in a different place. Then you don’t need a million rounds” of artillery, a senior U.S. defense official said.

“We’ve got to get them to that point.”

 

 

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

No, not missing any point. I merely think your premise is mistaken, and (possibly) skewed by good old fashioned partisanship.  Too much time reading those sinister Liberal Sites, tsk tsk....

Nobody can seriously deny that isolationism is a much bigger faction in the GOP today. The American Conservative reads now like Pat Buchanan essays cribbed by AI.

And there's a logic to it: it gets votes with The Dam Furriners Took Our Jerbs! folks (they DO have some valid gripes on that, btw).

...That said, since Reagan, the GOP has always made one huge exception to their idee fixe of Big Gov Bad / Starve The Beast: that's the uniformed services and MIC.

All those GOP Congressmen live or die based on defence plants and bases in their districts. Hell, that's all the industry left there now (see point above), other than building  trades and agribiz (which also likes globalism and Ukraine btw).

Also, NO US flag officer* backs Russia.  Serving officers (and revolving door retirees in the MIC) still command respect, even among the wingnuts.

Finally, there's America's 51st State in the Mideast which will NOT be cut off, ever. Good luck tackling that one, Tucker.  Didn't work out well for Buchanan.

So whose interests will most (not all, sure) of these Reps *actually* vote when push comes to shove?  You really don't think there's more than enough largesse out there to tip the balance as needed?

 

* MacGregor retired at only LTC; he has been a Team B gadfly since 73 Easting. There is no Smedley Butler out there.

Enough of this use blather LLF.  It's time for you to put your money on the table:  what do you see happening in Ukraine over the next month or so?   You seem to do a good job of looking at multiple sources, what do you think is coming?  (I only use dailykos summaries because they are pretty good aggregation of info and I can get a good daily update in one place)

My take:  I think that the bad soldiers + bad logistics + bad command will lead to some sectors being very weak and they'll collapse under pressure, as sick/untrained/hungry/demoralized/unmotivated conscripts run away.  Maybe this is happening now along Svatove front.  The only thing saving RU is the mud.  RU defense lines will be very strong in some areas but if the flanks collapse it's just worthless.  Germans saw this in WW2, where they just couldn't man a proper front.  They'd have some areas that withstood all comers, but then other sectors would collapse leading to crisis.  I think RU is going to be losing badly between now & February.

[MSBoxer]

Just to be clear.
I don't fear a single match.  I fear an eager nearby crowd with combustibles.
Now back to my self-imposed temporary exile, but first I want to wish everyone the happiest of holidays.  For me that is Christmas, but celebrate as you wish, safely with the ones you love.  

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Just to be clear.
I don't fear a single match.  I fear an eager nearby crowd with combustibles.
Now back to my self-imposed temporary exile, but first I want to wish everyone the happiest of holidays.  For me that is Christmas, but celebrate as you wish, safely with the ones you love.  

by the way, how'd you do there in Iowa during the great storm of Dec 2022?   Looks like very cold there and still there's ~40mph winds?  I hope you have not lost power.

Kind of a blessing and curse in UKR to have mild temps since all the polar air seems to be in N America.  Makes the front a quaqmire but also keeps folks from literally freezing to death.

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

My take: 

I think it comes down to timing. When and where does the UA and the West decide to kick in the rotten door? When is the state of the UA compared to Russia's so large as to minimize Ukraine's casualties. Maybe we will see this at the sector level and not across the entire front through the winter i.e. the rotten door is taken apart in pieces. This scenario probably take us beyond February. The missing info is the state of the UA. How much stronger do they get vs the RA month by month. I have a feeling the UA will concentrate the strength it accumulates at weak points over the winter resulting in major operations a few weeks before Spring thaw.   

[MSBoxer]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

by the way, how'd you do there in Iowa during the great storm of Dec 2022?   Looks like very cold there and still there's ~40mph winds?  I hope you have not lost power.

Kind of a blessing and curse in UKR to have mild temps since all the polar air seems to be in N America.  Makes the front a quaqmire but also keeps folks from literally freezing to death.

All good here, no power loss and we have plenty of necessities.  Thankful I was not in a trench on the front line.

[JonS]

58 minutes ago, sburke said:

train them to fight more like Americans.

Interesting.

Ukraine has done rather well by specifically not fighting like Americans. Conversely, the ANA did rather poorly in large part because they did try to do that.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Enough of this use blather LLF.  It's time for you to put your money on the table:  what do you see happening in Ukraine over the next month or so?   You seem to do a good job of looking at multiple sources, what do you think is coming?  (I only use dailykos summaries because they are pretty good aggregation of info and I can get a good daily update in one place)

My take:  I think that the bad soldiers + bad logistics + bad command will lead to some sectors being very weak and they'll collapse under pressure, as sick/untrained/hungry/demoralized/unmotivated conscripts run away.  Maybe this is happening now along Svatove front.  The only thing saving RU is the mud.  RU defense lines will be very strong in some areas but if the flanks collapse it's just worthless.  Germans saw this in WW2, where they just couldn't man a proper front.  They'd have some areas that withstood all comers, but then other sectors would collapse leading to crisis.  I think RU is going to be losing badly between now & February.

The unanswered question at the moment is which side benefits from the unusually long mud season? That might really matter, and I don't which way it cuts, a lot of arguments both ways.

8 minutes ago, JonS said:

Interesting.

Ukraine has done rather well by specifically not fighting like Americans. Conversely, the ANA did rather poorly in large part because they did try to do that.

The ANA had a large scale literacy problem among many others. In terms of teaching the Ukrainians to fight like Americans I do hope some is keeping in mind we have NOT given them Abrams, and an air force. If Steve would get at least a BETA of the new game out we could explore what might work best in more detail. Or perhaps that is happening at some government facility or another, and I wasn't invited. Which to be sure demonstrates the competence and good sense of the organizer, if they exist. 

[Splinty]

18 minutes ago, JonS said:

Interesting.

Ukraine has done rather well by specifically not fighting like Americans. Conversely, the ANA did rather poorly in large part because they did try to do that.

The ANA wasn't nearly as motivated, educated, and committed like the UA are.

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, JonS said:

Interesting.

Ukraine has done rather well by specifically not fighting like Americans. Conversely, the ANA did rather poorly in large part because they did try to do that.

I suspect this is a bit more than it seems.  Clearly the west has a lot to learn from the UA. but this point goes back to some references as to training the 82nd was doing with XIII corps.  There appears to be some things going on with Palantir that may reflect a different US war fighting capability than reflected in previous wars.  Just a guess.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

There appears to be some things going on with Palantir that may reflect a different US war fighting capability than reflected in previous wars.  Just a guess.

Palantir turning out not to be vaporware might be one of this wars bigger long term changes when we finally get the whole story.

[LukeFF]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's recap.  I post a link to a guy who chose to use his public platform to attack and undermine support for someone who is leading a nation at war against a merciless, Fascist dictatorship that is threat to world stability (generally) and the interests of free people everywhere (specifically).  This isn't some mentally disturbed individual standing on the street corner yelling at people coming out of a subway station, it is someone who draws about 4 million viewers every time he shows his face.

Let's do some basic math here. Carlson's ratings for the year (as of the stats released 5 days ago) are 3.3 million average viewers. That means out of some 331-odd million Americans, a whopping 1% of the country is tuning into him. Yet, it seems like every time he opens his mouth and says something controversial here, out you come with the emotional, over-the-top comments about how he's undermining the country and how listeners are part of the pro-Russia faction in this country, yadda, yadda. Why is he that big of a deal to you?

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I thought we were all for learning about this war and having an open and honest discussion about it?  Are you saying that you think that isn't common amongst us and that some are here with other intentions?

See, there it is. Just because some of us are disgusted with Washington DC politics doesn't mean that we aren't generally supportive of Ukraine's war against Russia. Just because we aren't all in lockstep with what you think, Steve, doesn't suddenly mean we are secretly agitating for Russia to win this war. 

And, since I'm working backwards through responses here...

Quote

The horrible way Congress (both parties) handles national spending is a travesty EVERY year and has nothing to do with this war.  The VA has been a mess for decades.  The economy goes up and down for complex reasons.  Cutting out every penny of spending on Ukraine wouldn't fix any of this, because these problems have been around before the war and will be around after.  So how is this relevant to the war?

It's relevant to the fact that, once again, our elected leaders waited until the last moment to "debate" these sort of measures, had a several-thousand page bill plopped on their desks shortly after midnight, right before Christmas, and are expected to sign off and vote Yes on it, else they will be called unpatriotic Americans for not doing all that should be done to support Ukraine and then be pilloried for it by all the talking heads on the left - who as a whole have a far greater reach than Carlson. That's not how our republic was ever supposed to run. 

Say, didn't George Washington have something to say about all this?

Quote

 

Excessive partiality for one foreign nation and excessive dislike of another cause those whom they actuate to see danger only on one side, and serve to veil and even second the arts of influence on the other. Real patriots who may resist the intrigues of the favorite are liable to become suspected and odious, while its tools and dupes usurp the applause and confidence of the people, to surrender their interests.

The great rule of conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is in extending our commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as possible. So far as we have already formed engagements, let them be fulfilled with perfect good faith. Here let us stop. Europe has a set of primary interests which to us have none; or a very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies, the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves by artificial ties in the ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her friendships or enmities.

 

But hey, in the end, Ukraine got its $$$, so who cares, right?

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

But hey, in the end, Ukraine got its $$$, so who cares, right?

Mind you, Russia has a long list of hostility to the U.S, NATO, which is U.S led, the EU, composed mostly of American aligned states, and agitates worldwide against U.S interests. 

Washington was alive when a voyage from Great Britain took a month to reach the colonies, there is little point in advising to “steer clear of foreign politics” when our world is more interconnected and integrated than ever before.

[Zeleban]

a funny film from Russian propaganda shows a fake capture of Ukrainian fighters. All fighters do not have tactical identification marks, the blood on their uniforms looks like ketchup, the intonations of false fear of the captured "APU" fighters are perfectly audible

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Let's do some basic math here. Carlson's ratings for the year (as of the stats released 5 days ago) are 3.3 million average viewers. That means out of some 331-odd million Americans, a whopping 1% of the country is tuning into him.

That is specifically television viewership.  Not sure how many folks actually watch that much TV.  I am a big fan of the Daily Show yet I rarely watch on TV.  I usually take in bite size stuff across youtube.

[Zeleban]

Another funny opus. Especially for those who think that Russia's appetite is limited to Ukraine. It turns out that Poland is Russia, which has never been able to become a full-fledged Russia.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Another funny opus. Especially for those who think that Russia's appetite is limited to Ukraine. It turns out that Poland is Russia, which has never been able to become a full-fledged Russia.

Meanwhile in Poland - Land Forces Training Center, 10 minute drive from my apartment:

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I don't think anyone had a problem with you posting about Tucker Carlson's attack on Republicans and on Zelensky.

But if your honest about it, you did more than post about Carlson didn't you?  You have gone on to paint all Republicans and all of Fox News with the same broad brush as Tucker Carlson. 
 

Egads, I most definitely did not.  That's just the thing... people who think all Republicans adore MTG are just as wrong as those who think all Democrats think the sun rises and sets on OTC.  I should be able to criticize Carlson and Fox without it being interpreted as an attack on Republicans AT ALL, either in part or in full.  Last time I checked Carlson is not a spokesperson for the GOP and Fox is a private corporation run for profit.

3 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I even tried to get you to clarify what you meant by "wingnuts".  Below is a quote of my post.  I seems you chose to ignore my post and went on to argue with other posters who inevitably and predictably pushed back on your "broad brush" post.      

Sorry, missed it. Wingnut = someone who believes Jewish controlled space lasers start forest fires.  Wingnut = someone who thinks Putin is the good guy in this story because he's standing up for white Christians against the Muslim and gay menace.

3 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I stand with you against Tucker as I think everyone on this forum probably does.  The only push back you got is when you used a broad brush against BFC customers who are Republicans and/or customers who watch any Fox news.  You said yourself that Tucker attacked "old" Republicans. 

Hopefully you will go back and re-read what I wrote and understand you read something I didn't write.  As far as I'm concerned, Carlson is RINO.  He holds none of the ideals of Reagan, that's for sure.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

Just remember that Carlson has a boss that could pull him off the air with a phone call, and hasn't.

Fox did not even show Zelensky's speech, but TC unloaded on him as the speech was wrapping up.   Somebody at Fox has an agenda and it's not just Carlson--and it makes no sense to me whatsoever.    I found myself watching the coverage on CNN and then CNBC's Rachel Maddow and actually agreeing with her---like I was in some alternative universe. 

 

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I thought we were all for learning about this war and having an open and honest discussion about it?  Are you saying that you think that isn't common amongst us and that some are here with other intentions?

What's your point?  That we should only post things here by people that have the same reach as Cronkite? 

Steve

The Cat from Hue is a phenomenal read regarding the news media reporting on war and how their personal views can both change and impact public opinion.  Cronkite included. 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Let's do some basic math here. Carlson's ratings for the year (as of the stats released 5 days ago) are 3.3 million average viewers. That means out of some 331-odd million Americans, a whopping 1% of the country is tuning into him.

Well, this is just silly as you're counting children.  158m Americans voted in the last election, so 2.5%.  Not that it matters.  What was the percentage of Americans that stormed the Capitol?  What percentage of those do you think watch people like Carlson?

56 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yet, it seems like every time he opens his mouth and says something controversial here, out you come with the emotional, over-the-top comments about how he's undermining the country and how listeners are part of the pro-Russia faction in this country, yadda, yadda. Why is he that big of a deal to you?

Every time?  When was the last time I bashed Carlson?  How many times do you think he's said something I don't agree with inbetween?

56 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

See, there it is. Just because some of us are disgusted with Washington DC politics doesn't mean that we aren't generally supportive of Ukraine's war against Russia. Just because we aren't all in lockstep with what you think, Steve, doesn't suddenly mean we are secretly agitating for Russia to win this war. 

See, there's the problem right there.  I posted Carlson's rant because I found his disrespect for Zelensky and his longstanding opposition to supporting Ukraine against Putin.  That's it.  I should be able to do that without people getting their dander up about things completely unrelated to what I posted.

56 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

And, since I'm working backwards through responses here...

It's relevant to the fact that, once again, our elected leaders waited until the last moment to "debate" these sort of measures, had a several-thousand page bill plopped on their desks shortly after midnight, right before Christmas, and are expected to sign off and vote Yes on it, else they will be called unpatriotic Americans for not doing all that should be done to support Ukraine and then be pilloried for it by all the talking heads on the left - who as a whole have a far greater reach than Carlson. That's not how our republic was ever supposed to run. 

Right, but none of this is relevant to why I posted Carlson nor the objections I raised to it.

56 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Say, didn't George Washington have something to say about all this?

But hey, in the end, Ukraine got its $$$, so who cares, right?

I don't like the way Congress goes right to the deadline, and often PAST it, every year.  If I were in control of the rules, I wouldn't let any of them go home until a budget is presented, debated for at least several weeks, then voted on with enough time leftover to try again if the first vote fails.  But that's not relevant to this thread and is, for obvious reasons, best left out of it.  Which is why I didn't bring it up in the first place.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Everybody, I'd like us all to take a deep breath here.  We should be able to discuss narrow, on-topic stuff without domestic issues getting dragged into the discussion.  I understand there are lots of you with sensitive trigger fingers on both sides of the political spectrum, so it's pretty obvious that there are certain topics that are more likely to get people firing away and dragging this thread off topic.  And it's not just US politics and/or Fox, though obviously it comes up fairly regularly.

Everybody's had enough of a say and I hope my last two posts cleared up misunderstandings of what I posted and why.

Steve

[Yet]

this running out of shells for defence + long mud season doesnt sound in RU favor at all. It is that much harder to get supplies in, to rotate personal or to make any tactical changes to the 'operational design'.

There is corrosion till you can break it and corrosion till it falls apart by itself.