How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

while generally I agree, it isn't a realistic proposition unless the US actually deals with the larger issue.  my old company for example had an office in Russia.  To expect no one from any office outside the country would visit means the US expectation is NO US citizen would be doing any business with Russia.  That implies the US making that the default position. i.e., declare them a terrorist state and get it over with.

Still missing the point   What I am suggesting is no different than what the US State Department's and US government's standing position is... we don't pay ransoms.  The State Department has all kinds of warnings about visiting nations that have problems, yet aren't on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.  All I'm suggesting is better Informed Consent concept for those countries with a proven track record of using the judiciary as an extension of national politics.

If nobody from your office wants to go to Russia because of signing such a document, then they shouldn't want to go there without signing one either.  Because the risk is the same as should be the US government's response to things going wrong for the traveler.

Putin kidnapped Griner for a bargaining chip ahead of hostilities.  The Biden admin made a difficult call (fully agree with billbindc about that), but I personally don't like it one bit.  Griner got special treatment and the Russians got back one of the lowest scumbags out there.  I don't think the US got a good trade for its exception to the no-ransom policy.

With that said, I think we should wrap up this conversation.  It's getting to be too much off topic.

Steve

[Zeleban]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, the pot may or not have been planted.  And interesting they caught it on her going out of RU, not coming in with it.  If they hadn't gotten her for pot, they could've just charged her for being gay.  Or whatever other nonsense they wanted.  It was a kidnapping.  

I wonder if the hostages are one of the reasons US has held off on designating RU/Putin as a terrorist entity. 

Relax. The forgery of drugs in the personal belongings of objectionable individuals is a common practice of both Ukrainian and Russian law enforcement officers. You do not have to bring marijuana with you from the USA to Russia. FSB officers will kindly put some appropriate drugs in your personal belongings

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

She went after?   Well, dang, I was defintely wrong.  I thought she was already there and (stupidly) just didn't get out on until too late.  OK, I stand corrected on that. 

fyi that wasn't my quote.  

[Zeleban]

Mashovec says...

The enemy troops sharply intensified their offensive north of Bakhmut ... According to some information, they managed to cross the road T1302 northeast of Soledar and enter the village. Yakovlevka, which in a certain way worsens the position of the tactical group of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defending Soledar.

At the same time, the enemy continued his attempts to completely occupy the c. Experienced south of Bakhmut and advance in the area with. Kleshchievka. He achieved partial success - he went to the near approaches to this village.

And although some people persistently write to me in my personal that the enemy is unlikely to go along the direction of Kleschievka - Ivanovskoye in order to bypass Bakhmut from the south, this is exactly what he is doing so far ... And at the same time trying on a fairly wide front to cover Bakhmut from the north (where Until yesterday, his successes were much more modest).

An unpleasant story with Bolshoy Potemkin Island in the Skadovsky direction continues.

Who forgot, let me remind you... The enemy, a few days ago, having created a tactical group of units:

- 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th AK of the Northern Fleet

- 25th separate special forces regiment

- 4th MRBn "BARS" (his 1st company was involved)

landed her on the southern coast of Bolshoy Potemkin Island, operating from the area east of the village. Belogrudovo. These actions were covered by the forces and means of the 8th Guards. artillery regiment with a place of permanent deployment in the village. Perevalnoye in the Crimea. Yes, you are right, they are mostly traitors from the former 406th Artillery Brigade of the Coastal Troops of the Naval Forces of Ukraine.

 

At the moment, this group occupies the south and southeastern part of the island, with the aim of conducting reconnaissance and search operations, in the direction of the mouth of the canal, Lake. Zakitnoye along the coastline of the eastern outskirts of about. Big Potemkin.

By the end of today, most likely, this enemy group will be able to reach the line of the spit - the northern shore of the lake. Zakitnoe and gain a foothold on it, in order to create conditions for their further actions.

According to certain information, the enemy plans to significantly increase his efforts here in the event of further development of his success in this direction. Most likely, he will transfer additional units of the 80th brigade and the remnants of the 4th MRBn "Bars" through the channel of the Old Dnieper ...

The command of the enemy troops in the Svatovsky direction continues the systematic strengthening of its units along the Kolomyychikha - Rodnikovoe - Rayogorodka - Kovalevka line, fully understanding its importance for holding the entire Svatovsky defense area. In particular, units of the 254th and 488th Motor Rifle Divisions of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th CAA, which form the basis of the tactical grouping of enemy forces operating in this area, were significantly replenished with manpower and basic weapons and military equipment during the outgoing week.

In total, the enemy deployed to complete this tactical group up to 850 personnel and up to 28-30 units of the main models of weapons and military equipment, including tanks and armored combat vehicles.

[Zeleban]

And in conclusion, a little about the pleasant...

As a result of the visit of the bunker nerd allegedly to the "launch" of the Kerch bridge crossing (yes, an interesting video with a Mercedes), quite unexpectedly, the Russian authorities announced not only the extension of repair work, but also an increase in their volume for the next two months. In particular, the complete replacement of four sections (255 meters) in the Taman direction.

This was done during the presentation of Khusnullin's work to Putin. At the same time, the terms of repair work, which, obviously, are once again "stretched" and even increased, he explained by "storms", because of which the repair teams allegedly stood idle half the time. So far, it is known that the same work will be carried out at least until the end of January 2023. Replacement will be subject to 4 sections of both railway and road tracks, the damage of which allegedly was not noticed as a result of a preliminary study.

Also, as previously reported, work to restore capacity on the damaged railway line of the bridge is planned before the end of the first half of 2023.

Thus, it becomes clear that the issue of the capacity of all routes to the Crimea through the Kerch bridge crossing will be very acute in the coming days. At the same time, the ferry crossing has not been operating for the third day due to a storm, and the updated sections of the Kerch bridge itself must withstand design loads of more than 8 tons per axle.

Given the fact that the railway line of the Kerch bridge and, in addition, its roadbed in the Crimean direction, are of key importance for the Russian troops to hold not only part of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine, but also the Crimean peninsula itself ... first of all, to determine the volume and pace logistics of the corresponding groupings of the Russian troops, such troubles with the more important Russian "artery" can be considered favorable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

After all, the operational-tactical logistics of Russian troops along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov exclusively by road transport is extremely limited in terms of delivery volumes. We need a railway (I have already written about the reasons for this situation in the Russian army before ...).

 

Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the ability to effectively track and HIT the key points and nodes of the enemy supply system along the Sea of Azov (today's successful strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Berdyansk base of the Russian Federation is an example of this).

All this together makes the holding by the enemy of parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine quite problematic in terms of the accumulation of sufficient stocks of logistical items.

However, it should be borne in mind that all these statements by the Russian authorities can only be a "play on the public", and solely for the purpose of disinformation. And in fact, the situation with the Kerch bridge crossing, to put it mildly, is somewhat different ...

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the ability to effectively track and HIT the key points and nodes of the enemy supply system along the Sea of Azov (today's successful strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Berdyansk base of the Russian Federation is an example of this).

This.

Now that UKR has a proven missile/drone capability to decently accurately hit a target 1000km away, well the next video we see of the Kerch video doing a violent dance-with-no-pants will be pretty unambiguous in its source and definitive in its end result.

No matter what was done before, the Kerch's days are numbered.

 

[RandomCommenter]

I just wanted to post this here, a fund raiser for Paul Whelan who is still in a Russian labor camp

 

https://www.gofundme.com/f/h9p9w-free-paul-whelan

 

[Offshoot]

8 hours ago, Anon052 said:

And the time this Video was released is very suspicous. Just after Putin stating that the ukrainian army is executing their  men for desertion.

This Video needs to be georeferenced, to see where it was taken.

It is likely a narrative to counter the very recent reports of Russian blocking units killing fleeing mobiks. Not just "They do it too" but rather 'hard video evidence' versus merely reports.

The funniest part was how she added that they were executed "most likely for refusing to follow orders", as if the drone could determine their motives.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Offshoot

[womble]

8 hours ago, billbindc said:

One notable thing from that speech is the rhetorical climbdown from nuclear weapons. I think we can say at this point that that option is pretty much off the table. 

Except that everything he says is (well, might* be, therefore must be considered) a lie. His Mendaciousnous' words reassure me not at all.

Edit: * At least 50% of everything he ever says is. "Might" is quite a large chunk of probability, here.

Edited December 8, 2022 by womble

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Mashovec says...

The enemy troops sharply intensified their offensive north of Bakhmut ... According to some information, they managed to cross the road T1302 northeast of Soledar and enter the village. Yakovlevka, which in a certain way worsens the position of the tactical group of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defending Soledar.

At the same time, the enemy continued his attempts to completely occupy the c. Experienced south of Bakhmut and advance in the area with. Kleshchievka. He achieved partial success - he went to the near approaches to this village.

And although some people persistently write to me in my personal that the enemy is unlikely to go along the direction of Kleschievka - Ivanovskoye in order to bypass Bakhmut from the south, this is exactly what he is doing so far ... And at the same time trying on a fairly wide front to cover Bakhmut from the north (where Until yesterday, his successes were much more modest).

Thanks for Mashkovets posts Zeleban, there is some of lost in translation probably but nonetheless it gives us a lot of insight, especially regarding Russian units. Am I reading things wrong or situation near Bakhmut becomes really dire in last days, even more than usual? Other accounts seem to corroborate Wagnerites crossed the road line and are closing in on main (third?) of UA defensive lines there.

[FancyCat]

If the Russian government says the sky is blue, I'm going outside to double check. Assuming that they are being truthful is foolish. Especially considering the hybrid warfare Russia specializes in.

Saying Griner is guilty, or deserving of this very harsh sentence that Russia clearly took advantage of is missing the forest for the trees, which is Russia lies. No reason to assume they are being truthful in Griner's case or any other American in Russian custody.

[FancyCat]

On that note, it is probably true that any discord caused by this swap, only Griner, and not the other, is entirely a side effect Russia has calculated as beneficial. 

We also must note that despite the detainment of people in Russia, the fact of the matter was the West was fine with Russia till this invasion. Placing the burden on Griner for going to Russia, ignores the reality Russia was not condemned or treated with the appropriate condemnation in 2014 or recently.

The fact that people seem be criticizing Griner on the basis that Russia is being truthful about her being properly caught committing a crime illustrates that reality. Change up the scenario, replace Russia for China, Putin for Xi, and I'm sure the majority of people would question the arrest as politically motivated instead of arguing that it was proper for Russia to do this. Reality is that Russia is a enemy of the United States, there isn't any reason to trust them, believe them, or think that they will be fair, certainly not in a prisoner exchange.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, womble said:

Except that everything he says is (well, might* be, therefore must be considered) a lie. His Mendaciousnous' words reassure me not at all.

Edit: * At least 50% of everything he ever says is. "Might" is quite a large chunk of probability, here.

Arguably not a single word ANYBODY in the Russian government utters is worth listening too. They couldn't tell the truth if they tried at this point. That extends to signing a treaty with them as well.

 

[paxromana]

7 hours ago, RandomCommenter said:

But I do think that in the world we live in today that American citizens should be strongly discouraged from visiting countries such as Russia, North Korea, Iran etc.

During the Vietnam War era Ausralian Passports were marked Not Valid in North Vietnam ... sort of a hint to idiots that it might not be a good idea to travel there.

Didn't stop useful idiots/fellow travellers (Wilfred Burchett was a well known example) going there to spew their lies or be duped, but it did cut down on fools ...

Edited December 9, 2022 by paxromana

[MSBoxer]

I have to admit Putin, the sick bastard, played this well.

The US had demonstrated for years that they would not trade Viktor Bout for anyone, including Whelan.  
 Putin knew he was going to war and taking possession of a US celebrity was too good to pass up, extra leverage that the US had to acknowledge.
The US tried to make a deal, Viktor Bout for 2 Americans, Russia replied that was not an even swap and said no to Griner AND Whelan, so the US made the swap. Griner for Viktor Bout.  
My question is why was the offer Griner and Whelan, never Whelan and Griner, or was Griner OR Whelan ever considered.
If I had to guess, the same celebrity that made Griner such a tempting target also made her the priority to bring home first.

[danfrodo]

Denys Davydov today said Bundeswehr agrees to send leopard 2 tanks to UKR.  For real?  About 2/3 of the way thru video.  Doesn't seem to be finalized yet from what I can see via googling.  But a game changer indeed! 

]

Edited December 9, 2022 by danfrodo
edit

[fireship4]

48 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Denys Davydov today said Bundeswehr agrees to send leopard 2 tanks to UKR.

Video caption reads:

Quote

'The USA advocated the transfer of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine.  Biden's national security advisor, Sullivan, told Foreign Policy Chancellor Jens Pletner that the US would welcome Germany's delivery of the Leopard 2'.

'The Bundestag has confirmed that the USA will support Germany's decision to transfer tanks to Ukraine, said the head of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann'.

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by fireship4

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Offshoot said:

It is likely a narrative to counter the very recent reports of Russian blocking units killing fleeing mobiks. Not just "They do it too" but rather 'hard video evidence' versus merely reports.

It also comes on the heels of that hilarious video where the Russian soldiers claim the Ukrainians are welding crews into AFVs and the videos of the dozen dead surrendered Russian soldiers.  Lavrov even drew attention to the latter recently IIRC.

This is standard Russian information warfare.  If the Russians are doing something bad, and it is becoming known, immediately fake evidence that the other side is doing the exact same thing.  This serves to counter bad PR, domestically as well as abroad, but it also creates doubts and confusion about what can be believed.  It's a very effective messaging strategy, which is why it's been used since the early Soviet days.  Probably even earlier than that.

7 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The funniest part was how she added that they were executed "most likely for refusing to follow orders", as if the drone could determine their motives.

It is also really neat that the Russians had a drone in place before any action happened, thus capturing the whole story they wanted to show off.  From our perspective, if Ukraine soldiers murdered their own it would be a very rare event.  What are the chances that the Russians happened to get a Hollywood view of the whole thing?  Not bloody likely.

OK, let's say it is real.  What do we know?  4 men in Ukrainian uniforms appear to have killed 3 men in Ukrainian uniforms.  We know Russians have been caught in Ukrainian uniforms, so it could be the 3 being killed were Russians caught in the wrong uniform.  Could be the 4 men with the guns are Russians in Ukrainian uniforms, surprised 3 real Ukrainians with their fake identity, then proceeded to kill them.

How likely are these two scenarios?  Honestly, more likely than 4 Ukrainian soldiers killing 3 Ukrainian soldiers.  But a complete staged event with 7 Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms is more likely than any of the other scenarios.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, womble said:

Except that everything he says is (well, might* be, therefore must be considered) a lie. His Mendaciousnous' words reassure me not at all.

Edit: * At least 50% of everything he ever says is. "Might" is quite a large chunk of probability, here.

That and Putin has been known to fib a little bit

Seriously though, with the Russians you have to assume their word means nothing for any number of reasons.  For example, Putin said they would never be the first ones to use a nuke.  But if Ukraine used one on a Russian town first, then they would have no option but to retaliate.  "But Ukraine doesn't have a nuke" you might say, but Ukraine also didn't have BTR-82s or T-90s in 2014/2015, yet Russia claimed that the ones used by pro-Russian "separatists" came from captured Ukrainian equipment.  In other words, Russia writes the narrative and then changes the facts to fit it.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Its seems separs may get somewhat pushed back at Pisky several days ago, or at least AFU got into halfway of the town for soem time. Not massive change of front but worth noting. Also shows how visible are any tanks and APC from air.

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Its seems separs may get somewhat pushed back at Pisky several days ago, or at least AFU got into halfway of the town for soem time. Not massive change of front but worth noting.

Not to worry my Russian comrades!  I am sure you will retake Pisky at least 20 more times in the next couple of months, just like you did the last 20 or 30 times you took Pisky! 

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also shows how visible are any tanks and APC from air.

Yeah, and keep in mind that we're seeing high compressed video of what the operators are seeing in high resolution.

Steve

[Offshoot]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Thanks for Mashkovets posts Zeleban, there is some of lost in translation probably but nonetheless it gives us a lot of insight, especially regarding Russian units. Am I reading things wrong or situation near Bakhmut becomes really dire in last days, even more than usual? Other accounts seem to corroborate Wagnerites crossed the road line and are closing in on main (third?) of UA defensive lines there.

I'm not sure it clarifies your question, but here is a little more info on where Russians might be in Bakhmut. The post after the video geolocates the positions that were shelled.

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Offshoot

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It also comes on the heels of that hilarious video where the Russian soldiers claim the Ukrainians are welding crews into AFVs and the videos of the dozen dead surrendered Russian soldiers.  Lavrov even drew attention to the latter recently IIRC.

This is standard Russian information warfare.  If the Russians are doing something bad, and it is becoming known, immediately fake evidence that the other side is doing the exact same thing.  This serves to counter bad PR, domestically as well as abroad, but it also creates doubts and confusion about what can be believed.  It's a very effective messaging strategy, which is why it's been used since the early Soviet days.  Probably even earlier than that.

It is also really neat that the Russians had a drone in place before any action happened, thus capturing the whole story they wanted to show off.  From our perspective, if Ukraine soldiers murdered their own it would be a very rare event.  What are the chances that the Russians happened to get a Hollywood view of the whole thing?  Not bloody likely.

OK, let's say it is real.  What do we know?  4 men in Ukrainian uniforms appear to have killed 3 men in Ukrainian uniforms.  We know Russians have been caught in Ukrainian uniforms, so it could be the 3 being killed were Russians caught in the wrong uniform.  Could be the 4 men with the guns are Russians in Ukrainian uniforms, surprised 3 real Ukrainians with their fake identity, then proceeded to kill them.

How likely are these two scenarios?  Honestly, more likely than 4 Ukrainian soldiers killing 3 Ukrainian soldiers.  But a complete staged event with 7 Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms is more likely than any of the other scenarios.

Steve

My read was also this is all a little too smooth.

Shooting prisoners isn't a daily event in any army, even the SS. And even calloused shooters (Treblinka, Babi Yar, Srebrenica) observed a certain measured ceremony.

Yet, these guys usher the guys into a prearranged clearing in the woods, shove them into line (standing facing them, not kneeling), then step back and casually pop a single burst into them (from below the shoulder). No pause for their last words, no ready-aim-fire, etc.

Then a mere instant later, instead of relishing (or staring riveted at) their victims' final throes -- or did they all score perfect heart shots? -- all 3 notice the drone is looking in and abruptly begin shooting at it.

....Notice also the edited jump cuts.

Some RUbot needs to post a longer unedited clip, plus some geolocation (there are some skilled pro-RU geolocators like Chris_759) if they want this to get traction.

[Grigb]

Sorry for not being present for some time (had, and actually still have, issues in IRL).

The execution video is an LDPR fake. It's an LDPR-style execution - these morons have no idea how actual Soviet-based militaries carry out any types of executions, so they imitate their own mob-like executions.

Apart from that - due to vastly enhanced UKR anti-drone defenses, actual RU drone operators stopped flying like this in August. But here RU operator literally flying over UKR heads for some time, risking extremely valuable asset, just to watch bunch of unimportant UKR troops doing some unimportant stuff. 

Go home, Ivan, you are too drunk to make believable fakes. 

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Thanks for Mashkovets posts Zeleban, there is some of lost in translation probably but nonetheless it gives us a lot of insight, especially regarding Russian units. Am I reading things wrong or situation near Bakhmut becomes really dire in last days, even more than usual? Other accounts seem to corroborate Wagnerites crossed the road line and are closing in on main (third?) of UA defensive lines there.

Bakhmut's situation is gradually deteriorating, but it is far from grave. It's the standard RU bragging that we're all used to hearing.

In the north, after months of battering Yakovlivka village (northeast of Soledar), RU eventually flattened it, and it appears UKR defenders abandoned it. It means the Northen pincer is now sort of free and moving. Except that it does not give RU much - without Soledar, they are still a long way from surrounding Bukhmut.

After loss at the Industrial Zone, RU decided to shift the axis of assault to Pidhorne village on the outskirts of Bukhmut (northern outskirts of Bukhmut, between Bukhmut and Soledar). Important village, but aside from several talkes, I have yet to come across credible information, implying that things are not going well for RU there.

The Southern pincer is the most alarming. There are no significant UKR defenses there, so RU is gradually grinding toward Ivanivka. They're probing Klishiivka, the last settlement before Ivanivka. That's bad, but the first part of the Battle of the Bulge was also bad. Essentially, we are waiting a UKR counter-attack aimed at destroying the Southern pincer. Question is how far UKR will let RU penetrate. 

Bukhmut itself is not in grave danger, and there is no threat of it collapsing (yet). Fighting is taking place at the outer defenses, and it is not yet dangerous.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for not being present for some time (had, and actually still have, issues in IRL).

The execution video is an LDPR fake. It's an LDPR-style execution - these morons have no idea how actual Soviet-based militaries carry out any types of executions, so they imitate their own mob-like executions.

Apart from that - due to vastly enhanced UKR anti-drone defenses, actual RU drone operators stopped flying like this in August. But here RU operator literally flying over UKR heads for some time, risking extremely valuable asset, just to watch bunch of unimportant UKR troops doing some unimportant stuff. 

Go home, Ivan, you are too drunk to make believable fakes. 

Bakhmut's situation is gradually deteriorating, but it is far from grave. It's the standard RU bragging that we're all used to hearing.

In the north, after months of battering Yakovlivka village (northeast of Soledar), RU eventually flattened it, and it appears UKR defenders abandoned it. It means the Northen pincer is now sort of free and moving. Except that it does not give RU much - without Soledar, they are still a long way from surrounding Bukhmut.

After loss at the Industrial Zone, RU decided to shift the axis of assault to Pidhorne village on the outskirts of Bukhmut (northern outskirts of Bukhmut, between Bukhmut and Soledar). Important village, but aside from several talkes, I have yet to come across credible information, implying that things are not going well for RU there.

The Southern pincer is the most alarming. There are no significant UKR defenses there, so RU is gradually grinding toward Ivanivka. They're probing Klishiivka, the last settlement before Ivanivka. That's bad, but the first part of the Battle of the Bulge was also bad. Essentially, we are waiting a UKR counter-attack aimed at destroying the Southern pincer. Question is how far UKR will let RU penetrate. 

Bukhmut itself is not in grave danger, and there is no threat of it collapsing (yet). Fighting is taking place at the outer defenses, and it is not yet dangerous.

Glad your back!

Edited December 9, 2022 by dan/california