How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

16 minutes ago, kraze said:

Except they do much much worse for no actual reason and without any provocation, save for sadistic pleasure or something. After all they came here to brutally torture and murder all of us.

Also, you know, just a thought - but if those russians didn't come here to kill people in the first place - all of them would've lived. What a wild idea is that?

Apart from everything else I may think about that topic: While this may give you some sense of justice, in the end just comes back to bite Ukraine. Apart from being bad PR, it leads to Russian soldiers thinking they have nothing to gain from surrendering (Putin's propaganda will make sure of that). And soldiers who fear they will be killed or tortured or whatever when captured are likely to stay in the fight longer. That in turn inevitably leads to more Ukrainian casualties.

[BFCElvis]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

If 10 russians come at AFU and one of them attacks - all of them going dead in that very instant is perfectly fine.

It's very easy to question why weren't Ukrainian soldiers taking down one guy and leaving the rest to surrender or doing it in any better way from a perfect safety of calm, warm home thousands of miles away where war is just a show on TV - but in an environment of a maximum stress and a maximum hazard to life where split-second decisions mean life or death, especially when it comes to an enemy as deceitful and barbaric - thinking things through is a non-existent privilege, so all russians should've died on the spot the moment one of them posed any kind of danger. And so they did.

I'd rather have russians bury their dead than us burying our own only because we should've looked good on TV.

I understand your emotions but this not the place to advocate for war crimes. Period. End of discussion.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

I understand your emotions but this not the place to advocate for war crimes. Period. End of discussion.

I think this discussion is somewhat irrelevant outside of how it affects the war.  It's about whether it hurts support for UKR.  This episode is a tragedy however it happened: a bunch of RU guys wanted to surrender, some idiot fires on & wounds UKR soldier, the RU guys then all killed by the UKR soldiers.  The dead are dead and the wounded are wounded, tragically.  But all that matters now is the how this affects the war.  Are we so naive to think that this kind of thing doesn't happen in war?  -- no, we all get it.  This was filmed and is being seen in the west, and in RU, and that can affect the war.  

So it doesn't matter about WW2 or vietnam or whatever or whether I think or y'all think is a crime or not.  It's cynical to say it but now this is all an ongoing PR situation for RU to exploit and UKR to try to mitigate.  No point in holding endless and pointless court proceedings here on the forum, arguing about legality, etc.  'course, y'all can if you want.  But it's pointless.

I am hoping some big (and good) news comes along to get this off the media radar, and soon, but the mud is locking up the fronts.  Maybe a nice coup in moscow?  One can dream.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers fire towards Russian positions in the Donetsk region, November 21, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP"

[dan/california]

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb

Ukraine needs as many of these as can be produced. The perfect weapon to make the land bridge unlivable for the Russians while not be longe range enough to make the escalation doves too twitchy.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb

Ukraine needs as many of these as can be produced. The perfect weapon to make the land bridge unlivable for the Russians while not be longe range enough to make the escalation doves too twitchy.

If the Swedes are willing to sell it, I'm sure Ukraine will buy as many as they can produce, at higher price than any other customer. I guess that compared to ER-GMLRS it should be way cheaper though - SDB I is what, a 100K$ a pop? Add regular M26 motor, some wiring, sounds extremely cheapish compared to IIRC $400K ER-GMLRS. Way easier to intercept due to low speed I imagine, but fired in volleys should be good enough to take out the few critical bridges leading out of Crimea.

On a related note, I recall somebody making a point that the same should be done with 2000lbs JDAMs with glide kits - obviously the resulting missile would be rather short ranged, but as assault weapon way better than TOS-1.
 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb

Ukraine needs as many of these as can be produced. The perfect weapon to make the land bridge unlivable for the Russians while not be longe range enough to make the escalation doves too twitchy.

From your keyboard to god's ears.   If UKR can take out those two crimea supply routes and then at least interdict the one coming from the east via tokmak, then it's gonna be very hard for RU to hold out against any sustained UKR pressure in the left bank land bridge region.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Except they do much much worse for no actual reason and without any provocation, save for sadistic pleasure or something. After all they came here to brutally torture and murder all of us.

I don't want to belabor this, but I don't think any of us here in the West have any interest in supporting a nation that shares the same behavior and morality as Russia.  If you want Ukraine to be seen as morally just, I'd advise not sounding like a Russian.

Steve

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

From your keyboard to god's ears.   If UKR can take out those two crimea supply routes and then at least interdict the one coming from the east via tokmak, then it's gonna be very hard for RU to hold out against any sustained UKR pressure in the left bank land bridge region.

Add second strike on Crimea bridge and drone swarms on the Black Sea. It really has a potential to become a Kherson redux.

Edit: and just as we speak, here's an very interesting development. It was forwarded by DefMon, so has to has at least some credibility. I wouldn't expect Erdogan to do this, again his recklessness comes in handy:

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Apart from everything else I may think about that topic: While this may give you some sense of justice, in the end just comes back to bite Ukraine. Apart from being bad PR, it leads to Russian soldiers thinking they have nothing to gain from surrendering (Putin's propaganda will make sure of that). And soldiers who fear they will be killed or tortured or whatever when captured are likely to stay in the fight longer. That in turn inevitably leads to more Ukrainian casualties.

I believe you give russian soldiers, propaganda effects on them and their logical conclusions way too much credit. To them any land they invade is a place to rob and let out their frustration and sadistic needs, so they don't need any more reasons from propaganda to do it other than that they simply can.

And it's not about some "justice", it's about acknowledging the probability of faked russian surrenders. Since the start of the full scale invasion russians have been coming at our troops waving white flags, but as they came close enough - they were opening fire point blank leading to a huge loss of life. We lost many many people this way. Add to that soldier's growing, untreated PTSD for 9 months due to brutal fighting, witnessing actual russian warcrimes times the number of faux white flags - and you know it may never equal any other outcome once gunfire happens in the middle of surrender. It's just the reality of things that will not get better until this is over.

Edited November 22, 2022 by kraze

[FancyCat]

Is Crimea really more defensible? I mean Russia can't use naval assets to defend it. If Ukraine manages to seize the access to Crimea from the north and hits the bridge, with naval resupply in danger from anti-ship and AD possibly able to stop air resupply, is Crimea really a fortress that would hold Ukraine off?

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Add second strike on Crimea bridge and drone swarms on the Black Sea. It really has a potential to become a Kherson redux.

Edit: and just as we speak, here's an very interesting development. It was forwarded by DefMon, so has to has at least some credibility. I wouldn't expect Erdogan to do this, again his recklessness comes in handy:

 

As The _Capt mentioned above the Turks have built a truly competitive arms industry, and seem to have made good choices about where to spend their money. They have not managed that anywhere else in their economy.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Add second strike on Crimea bridge and drone swarms on the Black Sea. It really has a potential to become a Kherson redux.

Edit: and just as we speak, here's an very interesting development. It was forwarded by DefMon, so has to has at least some credibility. I wouldn't expect Erdogan to do this, again his recklessness comes in handy:

 

Downside seems to be that the terminal guidence requires laser designation. (drone for example)

[Haiduk]

Ukraine has opened investigation of the case of Makiivka shooting warcrime, but against Russian troopers as violators of article 37 (perfidy) of Geneva Convention. 

I agree with this fact, that Russians were surrendering not as separate persons, but as a unit, and process of surrendering wasn't finished because this Rambo opened fire. Russians weren't searched and moved to other place, so process of their turning to POWs wasn't finished too. On the video you can see a moment, when laying Russian raises own head and sees on their last guy, who prepared for shooting, but didn't warn UKR soldiers (and who knows, maybe he had a grenade a could throw it). Also on the video, filmed from UAV you can see bodies, laying separately from this group, likely they tried to attack UKR soldiers to disarm them and were killed.

Maybe we can talk about "juridical grey zone", but according to Art.37 and situation 4 vs. 11 (and 2-3 vs.11 after shooting start) didn't leave the choice to shot out all. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Add second strike on Crimea bridge and drone swarms on the Black Sea. It really has a potential to become a Kherson redux.

Edit: and just as we speak, here's an very interesting development. It was forwarded by DefMon, so has to has at least some credibility. I wouldn't expect Erdogan to do this, again his recklessness comes in handy:

Why Colby writes TRLG-230 has 150 km of range? It has only 70.

[dan/california]

https://news.sky.com/story/royal-marines-commandos-force-us-marine-corps-troops-to-surrender-in-training-exercise-12458823

More details on this would ba more than a little useful for next iteration of the game. Might never get them but...

[dan/california]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-marines-didnt-surrender-british-training-exercise/

A better article...

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Why Colby writes TRLG-230 has 150 km of range? It has only 70.

Guy in the tweet cites (though without a link to the quote) Ismail Demir, president of Turkish Defence Industry Agency, who reportedly said that. I tried a little search but didn't find any confirmation online for this. Still decided to post it as it was retweeted by DefMon, who is rather scrupulous with stuff like that.

Edit: here's a sketchy translated video where he's making the claim. I'm not convinced TBH, we'd probably need somebody speaking the language to confirm.

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Huba

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I think this discussion is somewhat irrelevant outside of how it affects the war.  It's about whether it hurts support for UKR.  This episode is a tragedy however it happened: a bunch of RU guys wanted to surrender, some idiot fires on & wounds UKR soldier, the RU guys then all killed by the UKR soldiers.  The dead are dead and the wounded are wounded, tragically.  But all that matters now is the how this affects the war.  Are we so naive to think that this kind of thing doesn't happen in war?  -- no, we all get it.  This was filmed and is being seen in the west, and in RU, and that can affect the war.  

So it doesn't matter about WW2 or vietnam or whatever or whether I think or y'all think is a crime or not.  It's cynical to say it but now this is all an ongoing PR situation for RU to exploit and UKR to try to mitigate.  No point in holding endless and pointless court proceedings here on the forum, arguing about legality, etc.  'course, y'all can if you want.  But it's pointless.

I am hoping some big (and good) news comes along to get this off the media radar, and soon, but the mud is locking up the fronts.  Maybe a nice coup in moscow?  One can dream.

Well said. Though it is helpful to have the legal points brought up and clarified for our edification. Focusing pages of debate on one such incident in a brutal genocidal war with literally thousands of equal or in most case far worse circumstances by the invader feels as if it only furthers the propaganda/PR value for Russia. I for one do not expect Ukrainian forces to be perfect in defense of their homes and families, especially after all this time and horror. I do expect that reckonings will come AFTER the war. At least in the West, where our shared values strongly incline us to. My support for defending Ukraine against this illegal invasion is not so thin and weak as to be shaken by this. 

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukraine has opened investigation of the case of Makiivka shooting warcrime, but against Russian troopers as violators of article 37 (perfidy) of Geneva Convention. 

I agree with this fact, that Russians were surrendering not as separate persons, but as a unit, and process of surrendering wasn't finished because this Rambo opened fire. Russians weren't searched and moved to other place, so process of their turning to POWs wasn't finished too. On the video you can see a moment, when laying Russian raises own head and sees on their last guy, who prepared for shooting, but didn't warn UKR soldiers (and who knows, maybe he had a grenade a could throw it). Also on the video, filmed from UAV you can see bodies, laying separately from this group, likely they tried to attack UKR soldiers to disarm them and were killed.

Maybe we can talk about "juridical grey zone", but according to Art.37 and situation 4 vs. 11 (and 2-3 vs.11 after shooting start) didn't leave the choice to shot out all. 

Now THAT is a useful post on this subject.  Haiduk to the rescue, yet again.  

[Haiduk]

@Battlefront.com

This Russian source claimes that number of males-prisoners in Russia sharply decreased for September-October on 23 000 persons, which exeeds of any amnesty level. On the start of August in Russian jails were 349 000 of prisoners. Thus, most of this 23 000 more likely were enlisted to Wagner PMC. 

For other assesment, mentioned in this article to the end of October Wagner got 20 000 of prisoners and to the end of November this number can reach 30 000:   https://zona.media/article/2022/11/18/navoynu

According to Russian prisoners insides, now process of enlistment is not free-will. Representatives of Wagner PMC arrive to jails and correctional facilities and claim at least 150-200 "volunteers" from each. In first order theese criminals, convicted for serious crimes. Facility administration torture with shockers and cold water those prisoners, who reject to enlist. 

Almost all "hills of bodies", described by our troops around Bakhmut were not mobils, but former prisoners. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

NYTtimes paywall probably will get in the way, but if you can see this one it's worth your while.  SOF teams crossing Dnipro to recon, raid, & sabotage.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-river.html

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Stephen Biddle paints a target on his forehead. Fire away.

__________

First, offensive maneuver is apparently far from dead. Even in the face of modern weapons, breakthrough is still possible, and especially so when astute offensive operations on interior lines pose dilemmas for thinly stretched defenses like those of the Russians in Kherson and Kharkiv since mid-summer. Those offensives would have been even more successful with improved Ukrainian training and equipment, but Ukraine’s ability to succeed with what they have is a powerful demonstration that offensive maneuver has not been rendered impossible by new technology. 

But second, while offensive breakthrough is still possible under the right conditions, it remains very hard to accomplish against deep, prepared defenses with adequate supplies and operational reserves behind them. This is not a novel feature of new technology — it is an enduring consequence of the post-1900 lethality of ever-evolving weapons that has been observed repeatedly over more than a century of combat experience. Exposed defenders are increasingly vulnerable to long-range weapons and sensors, but covered and concealed positions remain highly resistant to precision engagement. Shallow, forward defenses can be ruptured with well-organized combined arms attacks, but deep defenses with meaningful reserves behind them still pose much harder problems for attackers. Overextended positions without secure supply lines can be overwhelmed, but consolidated positions with viable logistical support are still much harder and more costly to overcome. 

Third, neither shallow, vulnerable defenses nor deep, robust ones are universal features of modern war. Both have occurred regularly since 1900, and both have occurred, at various times and places, in Ukraine since February. 

And this in turn casts doubt on the advisability of redesigning modern militaries around an assumption that new technology has made effective offensive maneuver either impossible or available on demand. Successful offense has long been very difficult, and it has normally required both demanding preparations and a permissive defender. But it offers decisive outcomes when conditions allow it, and such conditions recur with enough frequency to suggest that its demands are worth meeting. 

https://warontherocks.com/2022/11/ukraine-and-the-future-of-offensive-maneuver/

Edited November 22, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Former police major Sergey Kaditskiy, PMC Wagner. Was convicted for 15 yeras of jail, after in 2017 he was drunken and shot dead own former wife and wounded own former father-in-law. 

Major Yevgeniy Zadvornov, motor-rifle battalion commander, 255th MRR of 20th MRD, 8 CAA, Southern Military District. Data of death unknown

Major Vyacheslav Beschastnykh, regimental navigator, probably 960th assault aviation regiment (airfield in Krasnodar region, Su-25SM/SM3) of 4th mixed aviation division of 4th AF&AD Army. Was killed on 9th of October - probably shjot down over Mykolaiv oblast (Su-25 was claimed shot down at this data there by UKR AF Command "South")

Lt.colonel Artyom Ivanov, unit unknown, probably logistic unit of Air Forces or VDV. Was killed on 16th Nov

Major Artyom Ozerov, chief of staff deputy, probably 538th SAM regiment of 4th tank division, 1st tank army, Western Military District. Was killed on 6th of November. 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Mashovets announces a massive Russian offensive in the Kremennaya area.

The command of the enemy troops in the Svatovsky direction, realizing the high probability of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the north and south of the city, is making significant efforts to get rid of this threat.

 

In particular, over the past 2 days, the enemy command organized and tried to carry out a number of offensive / assault actions against the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which approached the city of Svatovo at a fairly short distance, namely:

- by the forces of the 423rd MRR of the 4th TD of the 1st Guards. TA (up to two reinforced companies) the enemy tried to attack the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the directions of Podkuychansk - Stelmakhovka and Podkuychansk - Kolomyychikha (auxiliary attack). Didn't have success...

- with the forces of the 9th MRR of the 18th Motor Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps (up to a company), from positions in the Kuzemovka area, attacked the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Novoselovskoye area (unsuccessfully).

Obviously, the immediate goal of the enemy command and the meaning of these attacks was the enemy’s desire to push the AFU units away from the R-07 road in the Kupyansk-Svatovo section and thus secure the Svatovsky defense area from the AFU breakthrough to the north of it and, accordingly, avoid blocking the city of Svatovo from the north.

So far, the enemy has not been able to solve this problem. The tactical grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, conducting active operations to the north-west of the city, rather slowly but surely, continues to gradually move in the general direction to Nizhnyaya Duvanka in two directions at once, which will obviously be able to put the enemy’s Swatovskaya group in a rather “interesting position” in case if the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter the specified area.

In addition, it is obvious that in the coming days the command of the enemy troops is preparing a more powerful series of counterattacks to the south, in the direction of Zarechny and Liman, in order to neutralize the tactical grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which actually occupied a fairly convenient area northwest of Kremennaya for operations, both in the direction of Kremennaya itself, and in cooperation with the northern group in the direction of Svatovo. In fact, this group of Ukrainian troops is a kind of pistol, put to the temple of the Russian troops in Kremennaya... It is obvious that the enemy fully understands that sooner or later he will shoot... either at Kremennaya itself, or in the area of Sandy and Krasnopopovka.

 

Already today, the use of the Kreminnaya-Svatovo road by the enemy in the section between Zhitlovka and Ploshchanka is very difficult, which objectively has a very negative effect on his ability to maneuver forces and means.

That is why the Russian command in this direction “matured” a completely logical decision - to counterattack in the direction of Torskoye and Zarechnoye, as well as in the direction of Makeevka, or Nevsky and thus force the forward tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which had broken through to the north close to this road, to retreat behind the Zherebets River... and thus remove the immediate threat to both the city of Kremennaya and “restore the line of defense along the river. Zherebets".