How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

I think, given the contradictory information available, that the obvious and only answer is that the Ukrainians inadvertently targeted an FSB false-flag operation that was pre-chambered with highly volatile dog-propellant. They - the Ukrainians that is - used a hrim smuggled into and launched the Kuban on a life raft recovered from the Moskva. This liferaft later accidentally broke free and drifted under the bridge in the high winds just before impact, almost ruining the operation.

The FSB, meanwhile, were intending to use their truck bomb IED to help dig an anti tank ditch, oriented south, across the neck of the Crimean peninsula to prevent weak willed holiday makers cutting short their summer holiday, thus depriving the FSB of kickbacks from local businesses where the tourists should be spending their assignats. This explains why the Russians were able to so quickly identify it as a truck bomb - it was *their* truck bomb.

The combination of the hrim hitting the top of the truck bomb explains the large yet weird explosion and damage patterns.

Both sides are obviously still a bit confused about this inadvertent confluence of two otherwise completely separate operations.

 

And with that the mystery is solved. Handshakes and back-pats all around, well done everyone. Case closed.

Further analysis no longer required 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Not sure what is the goal here. Maximum threat on the northern front while stealing all the equipment for RUS military?

Or Putin wants Belarus to go down with him

Putin is cornering Lukashenko into doing something, pressure was building for months. If article is true, such covert mobilziation/non mobilization may be just next step Belarussian dictator need to do in order to satisfy Kremlin. Luka may for example want to select some small part of military that is more willing to participate into small corps under Russian command, just to save the mobilized rest. Most people dealing with the topic do not believe he will throw his lot with Putin for 100%, but of course it is still guesswork.

There are some gossips (unconfirmed) that he may have some talks with Poland/Lithuania behind Kremlin back, or at least that not all channels of communication are blocked.

[Fenris]

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Putin is cornering Lukashenko into doing something, pressure was building for months. If article is true, such covert mobilziation/non mobilization may be just next step Belarussian dictator need to do in order to satisfy Kremlin. Luka may for example want to select some small part of military that is more willing to participate into small corps under Russian command, just to save the mobilized rest. Most people dealing with the topic do not believe he will throw his lot with Putin for 100%, but of course it is still guesswork.

There are some gossips (unconfirmed) that he may have some talks with Poland/Lithuania behind Kremlin back, or at least that not all channels of communication are blocked.

Now that is some fun material for speculation!   What if Lukashenko is trying to get out from under Putler's grasp?  Can he even talk to them w/o getting caught that considering how infiltrated w RU spies & saboteurs his gov't must be?  What would he ask for, what would he promise?  How does this hurt Putler?  How does it help UKR/NATO?  for me, this is more important for the future than how the bridge was blown -- which was done by Brits using secret alien tech stolen from area 51, by the way.  

He's swimming in water infested w RU sharks and he'd be getting dangerously close to sharp things that might draw a little blood.  Very dangerous.

 

[Fenris]

AAA in the ground support role

 

[Offshoot]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Not sure what is the goal here. Maximum threat on the northern front while stealing all the equipment for RUS military?

Or Putin wants Belarus to go down with him

Could be as simple as Lukashenko getting scared that Ukraine might take a left turn after kicking the Russians out, or at least of the instability that will result when Russia is seen to lose

[benpark]

19 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

That is fascinating footage of retreating soldiers that have clearly had it.  Four beat guys (and a runner that kept his rifle, at least) carrying the one wounded man out. This on-the-ground stuff is illuminating, and viscerally immediate with the amount of video-devices on nearly every soldier. That must be distracting for newer units with lower discipline - the notion to pull out a phone to capture the sheer insanity at hand is seemingly proven by the amount of footage that is out there made by individuals. Seemingly lots of personal mobile-devices out there on the battlefield.

The person that made that already had the frame set up for the video, which leads me to believe there were more retreating men prior, or the videographer saw them coming ahead. Must be wondering if he's now the front-line. Spooky.

[Beleg85]

47 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Now that is some fun material for speculation!   What if Lukashenko is trying to get out from under Putler's grasp?  Can he even talk to them w/o getting caught that considering how infiltrated w RU spies & saboteurs his gov't must be?  What would he ask for, what would he promise?  How does this hurt Putler?  How does it help UKR/NATO?  for me, this is more important for the future than how the bridge was blown -- which was done by Brits using secret alien tech stolen from area 51, by the way.  

He's swimming in water infested w RU sharks and he'd be getting dangerously close to sharp things that might draw a little blood.  Very dangerous.

Theory that West has some leverage (or maybe even advice) on Luka is highly speculative one, but it would be pragmatic for both sides not to burn all bridges. Given how heavy-handed in foreign policy and full of bootlickers is current PiS government, I would doubt they would pull such nuanced policy feat. On the other hand, it is a fact that they cut finance to some BY opposition channels -namely Belsat TV, stuffed mainly by pre-2020 opposition; there is still border movements, transport of goods and resources, and they probably have some channels to Belarus siloviki/military to control situation on the border anyway. And most importantly they managed to negotiate release of some political prisoners some time ago.

So it sounds machiavellic given what is happening, but some people suggest PL services (or at least Lithuanian ones) still know telephone numbers to important people in BY MoD. And vice versa. It's almost pure speculation of course, but on Lukashenka place I would at least consider having channels open- especially that he liked to position himself as negotiator between Russia, Ukraine and West (remember Minsk agreements). Also keep in mind his very controversial appearance with map of invasion early in this war...could he be that stupid? Perhaps. Or he kept window open.

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

 

 

[FancyCat]

BBC Russia. 

 

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Now that is some fun material for speculation!   What if Lukashenko is trying to get out from under Putler's grasp?  Can he even talk to them w/o getting caught that considering how infiltrated w RU spies & saboteurs his gov't must be?  What would he ask for, what would he promise?  How does this hurt Putler?  How does it help UKR/NATO?  for me, this is more important for the future than how the bridge was blown -- which was done by Brits using secret alien tech stolen from area 51, by the way.  

He's swimming in water infested w RU sharks and he'd be getting dangerously close to sharp things that might draw a little blood.  Very dangerous.

 

Allow me to repeat my little broken record speech. A revolution in Belarus that rips it out of Russian orbit, is the biggest possible victory in this war. If they attack Ukraine and the AFU can simply take Minsk and install the opposition that is currently in jail, or the Baltic States it is lights out, game over, drop the mike and walk away. Hopefully an entire alphabet of three letter agencies are trying to make it happen. As much as I would like to see him on a lamp post it would be worth giving Lukashenko some ironclad guarantees, and a flight to the UAE or wherever.

 

From the Belarusan border Moscow would be in ATACMS range. 

Edited October 14, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, benpark said:

That is fascinating footage of retreating soldiers that have clearly had it.  Four beat guys (and a runner that kept his rifle, at least) carrying the one wounded man out. This on-the-ground stuff is illuminating, and viscerally immediate with the amount of video-devices on nearly every soldier. That must be distracting for newer units with lower discipline - the notion to pull out a phone to capture the sheer insanity at hand is seemingly proven by the amount of footage that is out there made by individuals. Seemingly lots of personal mobile-devices out there on the battlefield.

The person that made that already had the frame set up for the video, which leads me to believe there were more retreating men prior, or the videographer saw them coming ahead. Must be wondering if he's now the front-line. Spooky.

He might be the front line, but if he the front line is backing up at steady jog, with occasional sprints for incoming. He will keep going until he hits a unit under competent command that is trying to hold, or until he is too tired to put one foot in front of the other. If he is smart his next move would be to throw his rifle in the bushes, put up a white flag, and hope the AFU doesn't take all day.

As an aside that is a BETTER than average Russian unit, they are really trying to get their wounded out.

[MikeyD]

I get the impression that Lukashenko's primary fear is 'accidentally' falling from the 6th story window of a hospital room, if you know what I mean. He's been dragging his feet all year, not daring to say no to Putin but not actually say yes either. That game will last for only so long.

[chuckdyke]

13 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I get the impression that Lukashenko's primary fear is 'accidentally' falling from the 6th story window of a hospital room, if you know what I mean. He's been dragging his feet all year, not daring to say no to Putin but not actually say yes either. That game will last for only so long.

No problem he will bounce right back. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

Notice the guy that comes and says they need to leave because there's no defensible positions is shirtless.  This is not normal for Kadyrovites or any others on the Russian side, so I have to guess that the Ukrainians caught their position by surprise and he only had time to get his gear on before buggering out.

Anybody have any idea where it is at?  I've lost track of where the TicTokers are these days.

Steve

[keas66]

Not sure how to  digest this yet myself but it appears Musk is stepping on some toes at the pentagon at least  ( and not in a good way )

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by keas66

[Battlefront.com]

I'm still not worried about Belarus attacking.  Even if Putin somehow manages to force Belarus into doing so, the Ukrainian TDs will lay them waste, which will likely create a rather uncomfortable problem for Lukashenko's shaky regime.

Putin must be at least somewhat sensitive to the situation as he's not pushed him into action for all of these months.  Maybe Putin is remembering that his pressure for Yanukovych to shoot up the Maidan protestors didn't work out so well?  As we've all said many times, Belarus going into any form of power shift right now would be extremely detrimental to Russia's war and beyond that.

So if this covert mobilization is true, and it very well might not be, what is their purpose?  The obvious one is action against Ukraine in some way, but see above for why I don't think that's on the menu.  Keeping up some sort of threat against NATO as Russia cuts its western forces to the bone seems silly, but not necessarily wrong given how Putin thinks.  Lukashenko wanting more forces of his own in case Putin tries to take over the country seems logical, but I agree it's unlikely to go unnoticed by FSB and that wouldn't end well.

I dunno... I think it's just more of the same that we've seen since the start.  And that is trying to distract Ukraine from killing Russians by drawing forces to the northern border.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, MikeyD said:

As opposed to a con site the posts Kremlin disinformation?

Strongly agree - we don’t need to put an ALL CAPS warning label on every link in order to protect every sub set of members here! If an article is good enough to link, that should be all that is needed. 

[sross112]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm still not worried about Belarus attacking.  Even if Putin somehow manages to force Belarus into doing so, the Ukrainian TDs will lay them waste, which will likely create a rather uncomfortable problem for Lukashenko's shaky regime.

Putin must be at least somewhat sensitive to the situation as he's not pushed him into action for all of these months.  Maybe Putin is remembering that his pressure for Yanukovych to shoot up the Maidan protestors didn't work out so well?  As we've all said many times, Belarus going into any form of power shift right now would be extremely detrimental to Russia's war and beyond that.

So if this covert mobilization is true, and it very well might not be, what is their purpose?  The obvious one is action against Ukraine in some way, but see above for why I don't think that's on the menu.  Keeping up some sort of threat against NATO as Russia cuts its western forces to the bone seems silly, but not necessarily wrong given how Putin thinks.  Lukashenko wanting more forces of his own in case Putin tries to take over the country seems logical, but I agree it's unlikely to go unnoticed by FSB and that wouldn't end well.

I dunno... I think it's just more of the same that we've seen since the start.  And that is trying to distract Ukraine from killing Russians by drawing forces to the northern border.

Steve

It might prove to be the wrong decision for him as well. If he mobilizes a bunch and they think they are being sent to Ukraine they might think they have a better chance against Luka and his Russian buddies than they do against the UA.

[CAZmaj]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Nick Cage as Putler Stalinovich

He is too tall and too good looking

[NamEndedAllen]

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Of course, going back to Hitler one can say that there's a lot of disaster a dictator can take, though in his case he had a country that was facing being overrun and occupied.  Russians are in an interesting situation because their only actual problem is staying in the war, whereas for the germans they were damned either way -- though killing Hitler and surrendering early would've been much better outcome for both germany and the world.

You know programming excellent pathfinding is a nontrivial simulation challenge. The Player wants to get both safely and efficiently from Point A to his goal, wherever that might be. But quite often in simulations and gaming much can go awry. At each waypoint, you can suddenly find yourself heading out of cover, into terrible terrain, or taking an impossibly long path that renders the goal moot. And with several waypoints set, the possibilities for bad outcomes increases as the waypoints go by. And that’s not to mention the abrupt fail even if things go as planned at this or the next waypoint. The opponents may have foreseen your moves, or made their own moves that radically chsnge the battlefield - and you need to change your goal. Or maybe are now a smoking wreck.

This is how I think of the predictions about what will happen in Russia in the months and years to come.  Each assumption is a waypoint in that game. And each prediction’s goal has too many waypoints along the way. Lots of chances for each underlying waypoint assumption not to turn out as needed for reaching the predicted outcome. Shakier and shakier branches! Many a slip ‘twixt lip and cup! The value lies in identifying many scenarios rather than hanging on to a single point prediction of the future. Consider even the outlandish ones, and work out the most critical factors that could affect these scenarios. What are the most powerful variables most affect those factors? And then watch everywhere, in nooks and crannies for indicators of which way the winds are blowing. I think Steve follows this sort of map when he speaks about “reading the tea leaves”.

[Seminole]

Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.)

So top end currently under 80 million a month.  1 billion for a year for this level of connection for a distributed and battle proven comms solution.  Let’s compare it to the other Pentagon communications contracts and see how raw a deal he’s offering…

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

You know programming excellent pathfinding is a nontrivial simulation challenge. The Player wants to get both safely and efficiently from Point A to his goal, wherever that might be. But quite often in simulations and gaming much can go awry. At each waypoint, you can suddenly find yourself heading out of cover, into terrible terrain, or taking an impossibly long path that renders the goal moot. And with several waypoints set, the possibilities for bad outcomes increases as the waypoints go by. And that’s not to mention the abrupt fail even if things go as planned at this or the next waypoint. The opponents may have foreseen your moves, or made their own moves that radically chsnge the battlefield - and you need to change your goal. Or maybe are now a smoking wreck.

You are channeling a decade or two of Steve here. One of the few good things to come out of this whole war is is that we can never again complain about the AI and say a real person would never do that. Because there is tape of Russians doing that, over, and over again. 

And yes I realize you were not really talking about game design, but the forum has been arguing about pathing Since its founding. I fully agree with your actual argument. All we can do is create a "possibility space" and try to guess at probabilities.

Edit: And path dependency is extremely high.

Edited October 14, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Allow me to repeat my little broken record speech. A revolution in Belarus that rips it out of Russian orbit, is the biggest possible victory in this war. If they attack Ukraine and the AFU can simply take Minsk and install the opposition that is currently in jail, or the Baltic States it is lights out, game over, drop the mike and walk away. Hopefully an entire alphabet of three letter agencies are trying to make it happen. As much as I would like to see him on a lamp post it would be worth giving Lukashenko some ironclad guarantees, and a flight to the UAE or wherever.

From the Belarusan border Moscow would be in ATACMS range. 

Yes, a truly independent Belarus -- a successful and overtly 'Russian' state* not dependent on Moscow -- is an even more unbearable affront to the Tsars (Red or White) than the existence of an independent Ukraine.

Just as the very existence of Taiwan (or Singapore for that matter) as a wildly successful and prosperous 'Free Chinese' society is an intolerable affront to the fundamental mythology around the Middle Kingdom, where all largesse must radiate out from the all-wise all-knowing seat of the Emperor (while tribute flows in), presently in Beijing.  Because it is only He who protects you from the barbarians. (Sound familiar at all?)

A lot of extremely powerful mandarins and technocrats have a vested interest in that kind of thinking not being allowed to spread....

 

* Furious post from Kraze incoming in 3 - 2 - 1

Edited October 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

* Furious post from Kraze incoming in 3 - 2 - 1

LOL