How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

From an AP article about what Putin said in a press conference today:
https://www.wgauradio.com/news/world/putin-call-up/MVJKYQP7XIZX6NAYLCO232TLUM

Quote

Putin told reporters after attending a summit in Kazakhstan that 222,000 of the 300,000 reservists the Russian Defense Ministry said would get called up have been mobilized. A total of 33,000 of them are already in military units and 16,000 are involved in combat, he said.

 

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

On Spy/Intelligence front :
Russian arrested in Norway in possession of drones and 4 terabytes of photos and videos
 

From le Monde

Personally, 3 years for spying, I don't think that's a lot...

 

No worries it's Norway, where hitman killer Breivik lives in luxurious prison. Probably better than a russian block apartment. 

[panzermartin]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

Musk seems put starlink on free trial and now it expires, someone will need to pay. It's too good to let go though, so I think eventually his terms will be accepted. 

[keas66]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, I would like the whole Musk thing to go elsewhere.  It was relevant a wee bit a while back, but now it's straying way off topic.

Steve

I would respectfully disagree - The fact that Starlink appears to be a vital  communications link for front line Ukrainian forces   would  seem to make this quite important . If the provider of said services is able to turn these services on and off at a whim based on how his latest set of insane peace  tweets have been treated - then I think we have a problem with him . Either the Ukrainians need to  reduce their dependencies on the starlink network - or the US needs to  take a stronger line with Musk and get him back under control .

If HIMARS missile manufacturer started making tweets about Peace Plans and  asking the DoD to pay more for  the supplied missiles I expect there would be an uproar .

Edited October 14, 2022 by keas66
spelling

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hey so long as it is an observation I think we are fine.  Once it becomes a planning assumption things get potentially more risky.  Mistranslating everything the Russians are doing to fit a “they suck” assumption is much worse.  One should not oversubscribe an enemy anymore than undersubscribe until one is totally sure.

Yup.  It's all well and fine for us to sit here in virtual space saying how much the Russians are going to suck at X or Y or Z in the coming period of time, it's another thing to have to be in the field finding out how correct the assumptions were.

If I were a Ukrainian frontline planner and one of these defensive belts was in my AOR, I would try to bypass it so those under my command wouldn't have to find out how tough they really are.  And if bypassing wasn't an option, I would plan for the worst case and proceed from there.

Put another way, I believe these positions won't be all that big of a deal, but I'd prefer to keep that an untested theory.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 general body language; very catlike (apologies @IanL, @FancyCat and various other Forum hepcats).

LOL no apology needed. There lots of types of cats. My brother's family cat is a lot like a dog - comes to meet you at the door and expects belly rubs. My avatar is all about cats and their love affair with boxes and acting like royalty. There are cats that do indeed seem to be plotting ways to kill you at all times.

Putin is like the latter type of cat.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I would imagine that the relative collapse of Russian penetration of Ukrainian gov't and security services is less about successful counter operations and more about it's basic structure. For under 60 recruits, the motivation was not about affiliations with the larger Soviet state of their youth. It was about crass calculations of money and what looked like the inevitable triumph of Russia over Ukraine and the method of that triumph was not expected to be an inept, genocidal war featuring rape, torture and global opprobrium. Before the war began, it may have looked like the smart and profitable long term move. Russia's invasion changed that. It touched the stubborn streak in Ukraine. And suddenly, collaboration with the Russians wasn't valuable at all. It was shameful and more shamefully actually the sucker's bet. 

Yup, I think that has a lot to do with it.  Another part of it is loyal Ukrainians taking the threat of disloyalty more seriously than they did before.  There likely was an assumption that it wasn't possible to defeat Russia's influence campaign, so why bother spending too much energy on it.  Then the war happened and the motivation to be intolerant went way up.  The opportunists have to recalculate their concept of risk because now there is a much better chance of getting outed and, if outed, seriously punished for aiding the Russians.

There also are some specific shocks to the system, like betrayal along the Crimean front in the first day of the war, that have "put a fire under some butts" to deal with the traitor problem.  I bet whatever departments were previously in charge of combating Russian influence suddenly found that they didn't have to fight for budgets and manpower to expand their operations.

And let's also not discount the rats fleeing and/or showing their true colors.  We saw this in 2014 when much of Yanukovych's security apparatus fled to Crimea to join up with Russia's Green Men invasion.  Similarly, those Ukrainians in Crimea who were prone to treason openly switched sides, be they civilian or military.  We saw the same thing happen in this war with those who realized the invasion wasn't going to result in a quick victory fled government controlled Ukraine.  And now that Ukraine is retaking territories seems many of the traitors that came out of the woodwork are fleeing to Russia.  This reduces the pool of overtly willing traitors further, not just now but also well into the future.

In short, there's a confluence of factors at work that are already showing clear evidence that Russia's ability to keep Ukraine "in its place" is effectively over.  It's not gone completely, but it isn't likely to have the profound impact on Ukraine as it traditionally has.  Good

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I would respectfully disagree - The fact that Starlink appears to be a vital  communications link for front line Ukrainian forces   would  seem to make this quite important . If the provider of said services is able to turn these services on and off at a whim based on how his latest set of insane peace  tweets have been treated - then I think we have a problem with him . Either the Ukrainians need to  reduce their dependencies on the starlink network - or the US needs to  take a stronger line with Musk and get him back under control .

Yes, but the discussion about Musk himself isn't adding anything to this discussion.

48 minutes ago, keas66 said:

If HIMARS missile manufacturer started making tweets about Peace Plans and  asking the DoD to pay more for  the supplied missiles I expect there would be an uproar .

Not really relevant because the makers of HIMARS are contracted by the US government to produce those weapons.  The government owns them. Having the US government expect the same level of service without paying the HIMARS manufacturers is inconceivable.

I applaud Musk for sending Starlink free of charge to Ukraine.  How much of it was a PR stunt and how much of it was genuine desire to help is not relevant.  It has been very helpful.  The US government has budgeted billions to aid Ukraine and this is a critical component for Ukraine's military and civilian control, not to mention a benefit to the every day citizens's life.  That has a value and I do not think it is correct to presume that a private for profit company should be expected to provide that benefit free of charge indefinitely.  I do not think Musk is wrong to point that out, even if I completely disagree with how he is going about it (e.g. he should be negotiating out of the public eye).

Steve

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, I think that has a lot to do with it.  Another part of it is loyal Ukrainians taking the threat of disloyalty more seriously than they did before.  There likely was an assumption that it wasn't possible to defeat Russia's influence campaign, so why bother spending too much energy on it.  Then the war happened and the motivation to be intolerant went way up.  The opportunists have to recalculate their concept of risk because now there is a much better chance of getting outed and, if outed, seriously punished for aiding the Russians.

There also are some specific shocks to the system, like betrayal along the Crimean front in the first day of the war, that have "put a fire under some butts" to deal with the traitor problem.  I bet whatever departments were previously in charge of combating Russian influence suddenly found that they didn't have to fight for budgets and manpower to expand their operations.

And let's also not discount the rats fleeing and/or showing their true colors.  We saw this in 2014 when much of Yanukovych's security apparatus fled to Crimea to join up with Russia's Green Men invasion.  Similarly, those Ukrainians in Crimea who were prone to treason openly switched sides, be they civilian or military.  We saw the same thing happen in this war with those who realized the invasion wasn't going to result in a quick victory fled government controlled Ukraine.  And now that Ukraine is retaking territories seems many of the traitors that came out of the woodwork are fleeing to Russia.  This reduces the pool of overtly willing traitors further, not just now but also well into the future.

In short, there's a confluence of factors at work that are already showing clear evidence that Russia's ability to keep Ukraine "in its place" is effectively over.  It's not gone completely, but it isn't likely to have the profound impact on Ukraine as it traditionally has.  Good

Steve

One thing I forgot to add is that one of the structures the Russian influence operation depended on was the economic power it could exert on Ukrainian oligarchs. Putin could directly coerce them and their companies and used that power to work through their networks. It is a great example of how Putin burned his ability to influence events once his army rolled across the border. Put simply, once the Russian air force started bombing Avostal, Akhmetov had no asset to lose and so no reason to help Putin. And of course, a lot less economic power to exert even if he felt so inclined.

  

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, but the discussion about Musk himself isn't adding anything to this discussion.

Not really relevant because the makers of HIMARS are contracted by the US government to produce those weapons.  The government owns them. Having the US government expect the same level of service without paying the HIMARS manufacturers is inconceivable.

I applaud Musk for sending Starlink free of charge to Ukraine.  How much of it was a PR stunt and how much of it was genuine desire to help is not relevant.  It has been very helpful.  The US government has budgeted billions to aid Ukraine and this is a critical component for Ukraine's military and civilian control, not to mention a benefit to the every day citizens's life.  That has a value and I do not think it is correct to presume that a private for profit company should be expected to provide that benefit free of charge indefinitely.  I do not think Musk is wrong to point that out, even if I completely disagree with how he is going about it (e.g. he should be negotiating out of the public eye).

Steve

As you said, the system works brilliantly, just pay the man. Then tell him he will be charged with a Logan act violation if tries this private diplomacy thing again. This is EXACTLY the situation the law was written for.

[keas66]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, but the discussion about Musk himself isn't adding anything to this discussion.

Not really relevant because the makers of HIMARS are contracted by the US government to produce those weapons.  The government owns them. Having the US government expect the same level of service without paying the HIMARS manufacturers is inconceivable.

I applaud Musk for sending Starlink free of charge to Ukraine.  How much of it was a PR stunt and how much of it was genuine desire to help is not relevant.  It has been very helpful.  The US government has budgeted billions to aid Ukraine and this is a critical component for Ukraine's military and civilian control, not to mention a benefit to the every day citizens's life.  That has a value and I do not think it is correct to presume that a private for profit company should be expected to provide that benefit free of charge indefinitely.  I do not think Musk is wrong to point that out, even if I completely disagree with how he is going about it (e.g. he should be negotiating out of the public eye).

Steve

The fact that he is doing this in public  - is the problem .. .That's the major point as far as I am concerned . I have no problem with him or his companies discussion on compensation with the United States or Ukrainian Governments - But the fact that he raises these issues in Public - That's the problem - If you think this is a minor thing ...then I guess we will just have to agree to disagree .

[Battlefront.com]

Something to be said.  We are fortunate to have at least four Ukrainians in the Kyiv area who regularly post to this thread.  Since the terror strikes disrupted their lives we haven't seen much activity from them.  That is perfectly understandable.  I presume their daily routines got seriously upended in addition to it being more difficult to maintain connections to the internet.  The interactions with our Ukrainian members ensures we have a direct connection to this war each and every day we discuss it.  It is of great benefit to us all, as thinkers and as caring Human Beings, and I'm sure we all miss their contributions.  But the connections they have helped make between us and this war remains even in their temporary absence.

Slava Ukraini!

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

One thing I forgot to add is that one of the structures the Russian influence operation depended on was the economic power it could exert on Ukrainian oligarchs. Putin could directly coerce them and their companies and used that power to work through their networks. It is a great example of how Putin burned his ability to influence events once his army rolled across the border. Put simply, once the Russian air force started bombing Avostal, Akhmetov had no asset to lose and so no reason to help Putin. And of course, a lot less economic power to exert even if he felt so inclined.

  

The complete destruction of the economic system that underpinned Oligarchs subject to Russian influence is an underestimated factor in how this has all worked out.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The fact that he is doing this in public  - is the problem .. .That's the major point as far as I am concerned . I have no problem with him or his companies discussion on compensation with the United States or Ukrainian Governments - But the fact that he raises these issues in Public - That's the problem - If you think this is a minor thing ...then I guess we will just have to agree to disagree .

Except I don't disagree   Which is why I said as much at the end of my statement "defending" Musk.  Doing it in public, even without the "peace plan" nonsense (which I do think is separate, BTW), is wrong on so many levels.  This is the sort of tactic a private company does only at as a last resort when government is not doing its job properly in some way.  For all we know Musk did try to resolve this privately, but knowing Musk's personality I doubt it.  He went to Twitter first, I'm sure of it.

Steve

[Offshoot]

Interviews with some soldiers of I gather the 93rd brigade. They were near Izyum for months but were replaced very shortly before it was retaken, then relocated to near Bakhmut. They really seem to have got the short end of the stick and seem tired but resigned to their lot. The English captions work pretty well.

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Offshoot

[Vergeltungswaffe]

17 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I would cast Matthias Schoenaerts to play Putin in "The Death of Putin" .

 

We know who'll play putin in his younger days...

[Battlefront.com]

I don't know if I found this through a link here a couple of weeks ago or stumbled upon it on my own.  In any case, I just watched this and I think it is a really good, concise sketch of how precarious Putin's position as head of state is:

The description of the paranoia cycle between Putin and the hardliners (it applies equally if he should try to purge the moderates) is really succinct.  This is the danger of *ALL* autocratic organizations (including non-government) face even under the best of times, but absolutely under the worst.  As described in this video, a system based on personalities and fear has to be paranoid in order to survive.  It doesn't matter if there's no intentions of disloyalty, the simple suggestion there might be is sometimes enough.  Certainly law enforcement uses this technique when trying to "flip" witnesses in complex criminal conspiracies. 

Even though I didn't see anything in this video that I didn't already know/believe, I found it well done and useful.  And it was under 15 minutes long

Steve

[TheVulture]

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said there is no need for more massive strikes on Ukraine, days after the heaviest bombardment of the country since the war began.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63255617

 

I'm guessing that means that they've basically run out of missiles that they're prepared to use up for now.

[billbindc]

 

Between the claim of the (likely bogus) end of mobilization in a few weeks and a crackdown on the mil-bloggers, it's starting to look like Putin is trying to create space for some sort of policy change.  

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Interviews with some soldiers of I gather the 93rd brigade. They were near Izyum for months but were replaced very shortly before it was retaken, then relocated to near Bakhmut. They really seem to have got the short end of the straw and seem tired but resigned to their lot. The English captions work pretty well.

 

I hope after the war she gets some sort of official recognition from Zelensky.  Her reporting, and that of her team, has been consistently amongst the best of the war.

Lots of interesting things to note, especially at the 7 minute mark   And I don't think it's just because I'm hungry for lunch (it is 12:30 local time here), but DAMN!  That food looked good.  Like, really good.  I am a sucker for eastern European and Slavic food, so there is that.  Also in the final seconds of the video you can see the evidence of mud season.

The 93rd has the same problem that other distinguished units face in war... having to take on the crappiest tasks because they can be relied upon to accomplish the goals.  It's an irony, but the fact that they were pulled out of Izyum and put down in Bakhmut shows their importance.  Still, pity they couldn't have seen Izyum through to the end.

I have not been paying particular attention to deployments lately, but having the 93rd down in Bakhmut confirms that Ukraine is putting more attention on dealing with Wagner.

Steve

[dan/california]

It seems the Putin regime is all in on this mobilization insanity. They seem to be aiming for absolutely maximum chaos with minimum military effect. So is the regime going to fail under the weight of its own stupidity? Or are Ukraine and General winter going to have to kill and maim a couple of hundred thousand of these mobiks first?  I am not seeing a third choice. U.S./NATO needs to absolutely maximize support immediately. Ukraine winning fast is now the only way to avoid a generation of Russian men from being fed into the meat grinder, more or less literally.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Between the claim of the (likely bogus) end of mobilization in a few weeks and a crackdown on the mil-bloggers, it's starting to look like Putin is trying to create space for some sort of policy change.  

Well, it was only a matter of time before Putin would have to do this.  The only other way to end the mil blogger problem would be to win the war.  That ship already sailed and sunk.

Oddly enough, this ties in very directly with the video I just posted above.  It is a sign that Putin is in the process of purging the RU Nat power base.  I highly doubt he acted against people like Girkin as a first step, so there's a bunch of things that have already happened which we haven't seen.

Could be something big is finally brewing within the Kremlin.

Steve

[dan/california]

Is there any satellite imagery of that Siegfried line type defensive belt yet? I am really curious if it is a real effort or another potemkin/propaganda attempt to convince the Russian public the Russian army is still functioning?

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, it was only a matter of time before Putin would have to do this.  The only other way to end the mil blogger problem would be to win the war.  That ship already sailed and sunk.

Oddly enough, this ties in very directly with the video I just posted above.  It is a sign that Putin is in the process of purging the RU Nat power base.  I highly doubt he acted against people like Girkin as a first step, so there's a bunch of things that have already happened which we haven't seen.

Could be something big is finally brewing within the Kremlin.

Steve

Which is at odds with the level of mobilization implied by grabbing people off the Moscow subway. Is the failure of mobilization actually being encouraged to undercut Ru Nat support, and allow for some sort of climb down? I suppose it is entirely possible in a regime as shambolic as this one that different factions are working on completely different plans?

[dan/california]

I suspect we now know why there was massacre of Russian helicopters the other day. it might also explain the lack of video, Ukraine might not want to give the Russians a free look at what they did wrong. This will move the fall of Kherson right along. I was really hoping Ukraine would have the resolve to deploy these to the front lines instead of trying to defend too many civilian targets with not nearly enough systems. The best defense is winning the bleeping war. My opinion of Zelensky, and the AFU general staff is even higher now, if that was possible.

Edited October 14, 2022 by dan/california