How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting article translating and commenting on Russian TV propagandists' reaction to the bridge strike:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-host-sergey-mardan-says-ukraine-has-been-underestimated?source=articles&via=rss

What is most interesting is at the end the host asked one of the guests to spell out what a defeat for Russia would mean.  His response was loss of "contested areas", collective guilt, and massive reparations, which the elites would avoid paying, would be more than likely.  This is a fairly accurate assessment which shows that there's some understanding that what they've done to Ukraine because he's assessed what the punishment is.  Kinda like someone getting arrested for a premeditated murder saying "guess I'm going to prison for life" instead of "so I'm getting a ticket, right?  Where do I go to pay it?  I gotta dinner date I don't want to miss".

Steve

[JonS]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

it was a boat

My guess is that wee dingy is a maintenance boat for the bridge, or a fishing boat, or sumfink. For one thing, the guys in the control room with all the cameras/screens didn't seem very interested in it. The thing they are paid to care about just got wrecked, yet they aren't interested in the boat? If they aren't interested in it, neither should you be.

Secondly, just because there is a war ... uh ... SMO ... going on, doesn't mean that EVERYTHING you see hear or feel is related to the SMO. People still got lives to live and stuff to do, and there's a lot more people doing mundane stuff than there are soldiers doing soldier stuff, especially that far from the front lines.

If the evidence points to either horses or zebras, play the odds and go with the horses.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

Not as good as SIMs cards, but still good.

[sburke]

Zelensky today

Quote

 

"Today I would like to address those who believe that only negotiations can put an end to this brutal Russian terrorist war (...). Do negotiations work to defeat terrorism? Everyone should answer this question honestly. Terrorists are neutralized," Zelensky said in a new speech published on social networks.

For Zelenski, "constant terrorism against the civilian population is an obvious rejection by Russia of genuine negotiations." "They prove it every day, every night," he said before recalling the attack in Zaporiyia.

"At least 14 people were killed last night (...). More than 70 people were injured, including eleven children (...). A heavy anti-ship missile Kh-22 against a normal residential building," he has reproached. For Zelenski "it was deliberate". "Who gave the order and those who carried it out knew what the target was," he pointed out.

"When someone wants to negotiate they don't do that. And when someone is a terrorist he does exactly that," he has argued. "The last time a terrorist state was allowed to do what it wanted because the world powers were afraid, World War II started," he has stressed.

Now, instead, "the world is united". "Ukraine is going to win this war. We can liberate our entire homeland and we can put a terrorist state in its place. Russia has to be punished for terrorism," he stressed. That is why he has called for Russia's inclusion in the list of terrorist states and "limiting any economic contacts" because "you cannot be sponsors of terrorism", as well as the supply of more anti-aircraft systems.

 

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

An example of why people should be careful of Twitter theorists:

There's so much wrong with his analysis that it was a boat I don't even know where to start!  The one thing he probably got right is that the bridge section was lifted up by the explosion.  Hot Wheels Track Theory   However, the thought that a tiny boat, designed to blow a hole in a ship (e.g. vertical surface) could do that much lifting is nonsense.

The discussions here have been far better informed because so many of us are into sims.  We understand physics to some degree and further know that physics is important.

To me, this guy above is the same sort of guy who would have concluded a cope cage could defeat a Javelin.

Steve

I'm still not even convinced there's a boat there at all.  It kind of looks like a bit of wind driven whitecap.  I spent some time stepping through that video when it first showed up and didn't see it continue to the left across the screen (I guess since it was the bomb...), since I still haven't seen even minimally convincing evidence that the explosion came from anywhere but above the bridge deck.

It was a pretty windy night.  The videos of the water show a lot of whitecaps, and a huge amount of the splash got blown back over the bridge, and somehow a lot of people are convinced that the light scattered from the droplets is WP.  A) There was a ginormous splash and a strong wind, and water droplets scatter light really well, and b) WP would probably leave some serious marks on the asphalt road surface, if not set it on fire (which would have been kind of awesome).

[sburke]

52 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Not as good as SIMs cards, but still good.

apparently, a meme, not real release.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Boom

...turn into orders, it could lead to the delivery of up to 500 new howitzers

2.  Meanwhile, Putin appoints Immortal Joe to lead his War Boys to Valhalla, from whence they will return, all shiny and chrome!

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

piling on here w the tankies and their ridiculous views on Kerch bridge attack....  I would have a hard time not punching this one guy if he said this to me in public.  Actually, I don't think there's anyway I could not punch him.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/9/2127903/-Ukraine-Update-Tankies-hyperventilate-over-Kerch-bridge-strike

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Northern Luhansk. RU finally stabilises a line along the boggy Krasna river, but the N-S rail and roads are under UA fire. Ergo, cut.

 

 

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Not as good as SIMs cards, but still good.

LMAOOO 

He can't keep getting away with it. 

"Sam Hyde"

He is an American comedian. He produced videos like this; which should remind you of someone who was recently permabanned from these forums.

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Artkin

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Northern Luhansk. RU finally stabilises a line along the boggy Krasna river, but the N-S rail and roads are under UA fire. Ergo, cut.

 

 

I guess we'll see a lot of UKR probing to find out where incompetent/inexperienced RU officers messed up the defense.  Or where there's a bunch of mobiks that are just waiting for their chance to give up. 

Thanks for the maps, LLF, very enlightening

[Vet 0369]

On 10/8/2022 at 5:54 PM, chrisl said:

So the whole problem with the Russian debacle is the fault of Philip Morris and RJR.  

Nope, I tried a Soviet/Russian cigarette in Asia back in 1970 when I was in Fleet Marine Corp Pacific (FMFPac), scared the crap out of me. Those things could kill you!

[Kinophile]

 

Chuck finally letting go of his SOF death tip, to his credit. 

[akd]

lot of people on the internet deeply invested in proving that the truck we saw exploding like a bomb in the exact location where the road deck was blown apart was definitely not a truck bomb. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

lot of people on the internet deeply invested in proving that the truck we saw exploding like a bomb in the exact location where the road deck was blown apart was definitely not a truck bomb.

For sure, AKD.  And very few people saying anything useful about what this means for RU supply.  Stupid internets.  It was a boat, a plane, a missile, 2 missiles, a dingy, bomb on train, bomb on bridge, RU false flag (totally makes sense!),EMP attack gone wrong, Hilary Clinton, superhero, aliens -- did I miss anything?

[Battlefront.com]

More glimpses of reality creeping into Russian TV:

 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

lot of people on the internet deeply invested in proving that the truck we saw exploding like a bomb in the exact location where the road deck was blown apart was definitely not a truck bomb. 

I still don't think it was a truck bomb, but I have a day job that doesn't require me getting page views to earn a living so I wouldn't call me invested

There were lots of trucks on the road.  Chances are one of them would be in the vicinity of a missile strike is pretty good.

Steve

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More glimpses of reality creeping into Russian TV:

 

everything is going to plan

[chrisl]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

For sure, AKD.  And very few people saying anything useful about what this means for RU supply.  Stupid internets.  It was a boat, a plane, a missile, 2 missiles, a dingy, bomb on train, bomb on bridge, RU false flag (totally makes sense!),EMP attack gone wrong, Hilary Clinton, superhero, aliens -- did I miss anything?

Meteorite

Norse God

Baba Yaga's Hut

I'm pretty sure it was a truck bomb, but I'm willing to accept missile.  I'd like to see the top road surface to see if that big hole is in the righthand lane.  On the way home from getting groceries I came up with my own conspiracy theory: while the truck was parked for 6 hours someone could have put a homing target on it (or maybe they just shipped a homing target as freight) and once the truck was getting onto the bridge for sure, the missile could have been launched in the right direction to pick up the truck as a target at the right time. If the bridge has cell service you could do it with an iPhone and a missile that has the "Find my...[target]" app.

[Kinophile]

I saw a video clip that had a truck wreckage on its side, underside facing towards the blast zone. That plus the clip under the bridge showing the explosion pretty high above the toad surface are two of my current data points. 

Naturally I'm open to further info. 

It feels like a missile strike that didn't quite hit where they wanted (the railway). 

Yknow,  I've that engineer relative in Australia... Time for a zoom chat methinks! 

[akd]

17 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Meteorite

Norse God

Baba Yaga's Hut

I'm pretty sure it was a truck bomb, but I'm willing to accept missile.  I'd like to see the top road surface to see if that big hole is in the righthand lane.  
 

17 minutes ago, chrisl said:

On the way home from getting groceries I came up with my own conspiracy theory: while the truck was parked for 6 hours someone could have put a homing target on it (or maybe they just shipped a homing target as freight) and once the truck was getting onto the bridge for sure, the missile could have been launched in the right direction to pick up the truck as a target at the right time. If the bridge has cell service you could do it with an iPhone and a missile that has the "Find my...[target]" app.

There is no missile guidance system that works like that I know of, and the timing necessary would be extraordinary if not impossible. 
 

Anyways, here is a whole thread on why the truck we saw explode was probably an exploding truck:

 

[MikeyD]

IF it was a truck bomb and IF Ukraine doesn't have the logistical wherewithal to create a big truck bomb inside Russian territory on the east side of the Sea of Azov that leaves one conclusion. Someone else made that truck bomb. Or you can work backwards. IF Ukraine did it and IF they didn't have the wherewithal to make a truck bomb inside Russia then you must conclude it wasn't a truck bomb that did it. But it looks an awful lot like a truck bomb did it. Either someone else did it or one of our assumptions is wrong.

[chrisl]

Just now, akd said:

There is no missile guidance system that works like that I know of, and the timing necessary would be extraordinary if not impossible. 
 

Anyways, here is a whole thread on why the truck we saw explode was probably an exploding truck:

 

No missile guidance system that I know of, either, but the Ukrainians have been creative and it wouldn't be that hard - it's not that different than the anti-ship missiles for over the horizon use.  There's probably not a big market for it, since if you have the kind of access to something that you can put a homing beacon on it, you'd probably just blow it up yourself most of the time.

[Sojourner]

Apologies to Gary Larson