How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Starosillia.

I think that all the territory north of Davidov Brid has already been liberated.

Rybar is fun!  "Ukraine's attacks on X have been defeated, but they keep trying" should be translated from the original Russian to mean "Ukraine already took X and I've got butthurt about it".

Steve

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK, plain language explanation of what just happened in the Kherson bridgehead... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-october-2-3

On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river. This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications. 

Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions. Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. 

I also read that attack happened just after the VDV regiment that was holding the line there for 6 weeks was rotated and was actually engaged later in Dudchany by pursuing Ukrainians. That's what you call and ISR advantage

[Probus]

Animated map of first the Russian advances then the Ukrainian counter attack my wife found.  it shows the lines as being mostly stable from mid April to early September, and then Ukraine counter attacks:

 

[Zeleban]

Soldiers of Ukraine torture a prisoner of the DPR with a dener kebab

[kevinkin]

I love the idea of platoon sized jabs against an off balanced opponent. (Fits CMBS well BTW) But the account above indicates a well timed haymaker still has its place in the ring. I wonder if increasing cloud cover/rainy conditions might allow for an increased size of Ukrianes's strike formations and actually benefit the offense short term while motorized light formations remain the norm?  

[Kinophile]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prisoner-lyman.html

yes yes its the NYT, but

1-  I love that photographer's work

2. The article notes something we haven't mentioned here (I think) - the use of the North-South running rivers as water highways, RLOCS (?) and not just as water obstacles to be crossed.

Because the inevitable course of the Kharkiv offensive is to turn south into Donbass, the rivers will turn from being Defensive Lines the UA must deliberately assault across and instead into Ground(Riverine) Lines of Communication, running in the same operational direction as the offensive itself. So in theory a potential source of friction will become a source of speed & mobility.

Now, the winter obviously will reduce the usefulness; I doubt you could trust the river ice with anything heavier than a van or light truck. Not just in terms of weight, I think UKR gets decent river ice, but sheer quantity of vehicles and rate of use. Im sure there will be areas/stretches than can take a heavy truck etc, but no river ice is reliable for very long under heavy and continuous vehicular use. Then, come the spring....

So the undeniable fact that the UA will need to turn south at some point and will then be flowing with the grain of the topography rather than against it, will absolutely be a factor in the pace and flow of operations against the RUS.

An interesting analogy might be the Shenandoah Valley in the US Civil War. Essentially a giant channel into the Union heartlands, it became a critical strategic theater. Once the Confederates were eventually beaten off (sorry Stonewall) it then became a dagger into the heart of the Confederacy. The point being, that both sides used the natural grain of the land to enable & amplify operational and strategic missions and objectives.

Another example would be the Allies hitting the Rhine - once they had that, they had a logistical artery par exellence to support the advance east and south.

 

The Donbass watershe essentially flows in the same ultimate direction of Ukraine's strategic (not just operational!) objectives - to the Azov sea.  wrong, dummy. But it still flows into the flanks of RUS lines and to the RUS border,  and we all know how much the UA loves a nice flank attack...

Conversely, Russia will be still  be defending and communicating  across the topological grain, offering lots of opportunities (as already exist) for choking GLOCs at bridges and river crossings. So their friction will remain and steadily be increased.

---

Now, I'm thinking of this here, at this early/mid-ish point in the UA Kharkiv Donbss counterattack. I'm pretty sure some clever lads in the UA GenStab are right now badgering geographers, hydrological engineers, river police, structural and transport engineers and anyone else they can think of (maybe we can too?) for insights and ideas of how to exploit this coming synchronicity in the UA's national war aims and the natural topography of the battlefield.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

Looks like Russia being the source of the pipeline sabotage is advancing. NS1 flows were not sanctioned and had only stopped flowing due to Russian "maintenance". NS2 was deliberately stopped by Germany as a sanction against Russia for launching the invasion of Ukraine.

If Germany folds and reallows NS2 to become operational, it would effectively divide the Western alliance.

 

[Kinophile]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh.  Well, I feel the same way about hot areas.  I'd rather put more layers on than sit in a puddle of my own juices.

I went winter camping at -28F (-34c) air temp with a lot of wind.  Younger days, but I rather enjoyed it!  Fast forward 20 years to a night at an ice hotel (whole building made out of ice, including the bed and night stand).  I was fine, but my wife pulled the ripcord at about 5 in the morning and we bailed.

The primary problem with winter fighting is, as was mentioned earlier, footwear.  Unlike hands which can be shoved into pockets or taken inside a jacket for a boost, feet just hang out at the furthest distance from the body's heat center.  Nothing you can really do about them other than periodically pull them out of boots and warm them by a fire.

Even in the relatively mild winter climate of Ukraine (and it seems the warming trend makes it mild by my standards) it doesn't take long to get frostbite from improper footwear.  In fact, there were tons of reports of Russian soldiers developing frostbite and other cold related health issues during the "exercises" prior to the war's start.  They didn't have proper clothing even then, it's probably going to be even worse this winter.

Steve

toe warmers for the ULTIMATE WINTER WIN.

My god those things are the magic of the angels.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh.  Well, I feel the same way about hot areas.  I'd rather put more layers on than sit in a puddle of my own juices.

I went winter camping at -28F (-34c) air temp with a lot of wind.  Younger days, but I rather enjoyed it!  Fast forward 20 years to a night at an ice hotel (whole building made out of ice, including the bed and night stand).  I was fine, but my wife pulled the ripcord at about 5 in the morning and we bailed.

The primary problem with winter fighting is, as was mentioned earlier, footwear.  Unlike hands which can be shoved into pockets or taken inside a jacket for a boost, feet just hang out at the furthest distance from the body's heat center.  Nothing you can really do about them other than periodically pull them out of boots and warm them by a fire.

Even in the relatively mild winter climate of Ukraine (and it seems the warming trend makes it mild by my standards) it doesn't take long to get frostbite from improper footwear.  In fact, there were tons of reports of Russian soldiers developing frostbite and other cold related health issues during the "exercises" prior to the war's start.  They didn't have proper clothing even then, it's probably going to be even worse this winter.

Steve

on the personal equipment (no translator required because photos): 
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1948673/2258487/PEVIESTOS-TaistelijanVaatetusM05-2013.pdf/e756573d-0ebe-4157-84a9-cb28bef3e30e/PEVIESTOS-TaistelijanVaatetusM05-2013.pdf.pdf

more general all around guide to everything including "surviving" (also lots of photos):
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1948673/59593990/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf/0302c220-4a06-0bd2-2f7f-6adaa0e00926/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf?t=1639574353843

For the bad weather you just need the right gear (personal and formation gear)

 

From personal experience you survive quite easily indefinably in -30°C(-22°F) when you have personal gear and squad gear.

[acrashb]

22 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

My god those things are the magic of the angels.

With a review like that, I just ordered 50 on Amazon.  The way to keep feet warm is to keep your core warm and your feet dry - but sitting in a windy hunting stand for hours at a time, in boots thin enough to make the pack-in / pack-out part bearable, does get the feet chilly.

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, acrashb said:

 The way to keep feet warm is to keep your core warm and your feet dry 

Thats only part, the cold worms its way in inevitably. You wont regret it. Ive put a set in my boots, shot an entire day's worth (12 hours!) and come home with them still warm.

And, I swear to goodness, I put the boots on the next morning and the pads can still have heat.

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Thats only part, the cold worms its way in inevitably. You wont regret it. Ive put a set in my boots, shot an entire day's worth (12 hours!) and come home with them still warm.

And, I swear to goodness, I put the boots on the next morning and the pads can still have heat.

Thick *** winter rubber boots with added boot lining (can be easily switched when gets wet, "rotation") combined with thick *** quality winter socks. Indestructible 

[The_MonkeyKing]

some rumors above and good visualization on the challenges of shrinking bridgehead under:

 

[danfrodo]

26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

on the personal equipment (no translator required because photos): 
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1948673/2258487/PEVIESTOS-TaistelijanVaatetusM05-2013.pdf/e756573d-0ebe-4157-84a9-cb28bef3e30e/PEVIESTOS-TaistelijanVaatetusM05-2013.pdf.pdf

more general all around guide to everything including "surviving" (also lots of photos):
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1948673/59593990/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf/0302c220-4a06-0bd2-2f7f-6adaa0e00926/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf/Sotilaan_kasikirja_2022.pdf?t=1639574353843

For the bad weather you just need the right gear (personal and formation gear)

 

From personal experience you survive quite easily indefinably in -30°C(-22°F) when you have personal gear and squad gear.

Awesome, thanks for sharing MonkeyKing.  I just forwarded to my 1/2 Finnish colleague who is quite the Finland aficionado.  He goes there every year, his Finnish father spends 1/2 the year there in his cabin in the woods on a lake -- of course, being Finland I suppose just about everywher is on a lake.  The army manuals are really good, even w/o knowing Finnish. 

I am guessing the Russians will be similarly prepared for winter weather.  

[Taranis]

Russians : "Recruits prepare to participate in military training at a shooting range in Krasnodar region, southern Russia, Tuesday, October 4, 2022. AP"

 

Quote

More than 200,000 people have been mobilized into the Russian army since the announcement of a "partial" military mobilization in the country on September 21 to fight in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Tuesday. . But how many Russians have left the country?

"Nearly two weeks after the announcement of the partial mobilization, about 700,000 people have left Russia, including 200,000 in Kazakhstan ," writes the Russian edition of Forbes . But the main thing left before the mobilization. In the first half of 2022, 419,085 people left Russia, more than double the number in the first six months of last year, Rosstat, Russia's federal state statistics service, wrote in its report on the socio-economic situation of the country . Since the end of September, the Russians have been going to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey or Finland.

 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers clean a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Siversk, Donetsk region, October 1, 2022. INNA VARENYTSIA/AP"

[Artkin]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

winters are random and unpredictable in Ukraine. You can have below zero temps and zero snow resulting in the solid frozen ground one week - and the very next one it's like +1C and a massive wet snow dump which turns everything into mud, then suddenly it's -10C - 20C and a knee-deep snow. And then it's +4-+6C temps and sunny days.

I believe the main issue will be in Kherson area, where you have these large farm fields. Cold air coming in from the Black Sea should dump much more snow than you'll find in the North. I bet you the winds are brutal down there, and the fields will have snow walls on the end, 3m tall.

[danfrodo]

Interesting claim about communications being a big reason for new UKR advances.  UKR infiltrating RU radio comms and getting info, then sending false orders, then jamming.  Causing confusion and dislocation, leading to RU local then sector retreats.  Also some more videos in liberated towns.

This site has good daily updates.  This plus forum are first thing I check each morning

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/4/2126855/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-unraveling-accelerates-as-Ukraine-makes-gains-on-every-front

 

[akd]

“Cannibal” is running short on people and needs more. 

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

“Cannibal” is running short on people and needs more. 

 

maybe he should skip a meal or two and he'd have more guys left.  

[Zeleban]

21 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I believe the main issue will be in Kherson area, where you have these large farm fields. Cold air coming in from the Black Sea should dump much more snow than you'll find in the North. I bet you the winds are brutal down there, and the fields will have snow walls on the end, 3m tall.

I can say it's the other way around. Winter in the Kherson region is milder than in the rest of Ukraine. There is much less snow here. The proximity of the sea softens the climate

[Zeleban]

.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Zeleban

[dan/california]

 

 

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I've previously shot overnight on the Toronto Lakefront in January and holy ****ing **** its awful. Just ****ing ****ty **** **** *** **** mother****er **** ****y ****ing awful. And that was with Baffin boots, heating pads, many layers, canada goose level coat, insulated overalls, gloves with heat pads, spare layers, etc. I was fine, in the end, but I was in no bloody hurry to do anymore days on 1st Unit of The Strain, I can tell you.

I've never been so cold - except in the old power station, the Hearn. But that has gigantic concrete floors that hold and radiate the cold, plus wind* and a nice nasty asbesto-y dust to blow around and as it was literally my first day on a film set and I knew nothing, I absolutely was not dressed correctly. 

Which is the point, really.

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but we were all jabbering in the Spring about the expected rains giving a mud season that would slow down RUS ops. Personally I saw very little impediment or hindrance due to surface conditions. Certainly nothing dramatic compared to the Wehrmacht's experience. 

I doubt this coming winter will slow the UA. As has been noted by others, winter hits the unprepared unequally. 

And I dont hear no stories about Ukraine "losing" 1.5 million winter uniforms.

 

_{*Wind is the killer, it really is. I find Terry Pratchet's description of a "Lazy Wind" as perfectly apt - "It doesn't bother going around, it just goes right through you."}

I have climbed ski lift towers at 30 below Fahrenheit, in the dark, at 10,000 ft elevation. I still have all my digits, but it is bleeping unpleasant. I really can'y imagine how bad it will be for the Russians unless they actually sort out their logistics system. My hopes for them are rather dim.

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry to be so bloodthirsty, but the VDV units north of the Dnepr need to be aggressively cut off and destroyed -- as in KIA or prisoners -- not allowed to escape, even weaponless, across the river. 

Is mining the Dnipr -- letting a steady stream of magnetic mines drift down -- fair play?

The paras will likely sell their lives dearly, like cornered animals, but it is best that they do not furnish veteran cadre for new formations, whether for purposes of a future war, or for internal repression on behalf of the next set of thugs who take control in Moscow.

Yes, this! One way or another these guys need to miss the rest of the war.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prisoner-lyman.html

yes yes its the NYT, but

1-  I love that photographer's work

2. The article notes something we haven't mentioned here (I think) - the use of the North-South running rivers as water highways, RLOCS (?) and not just as water obstacles to be crossed.

Because the inevitable course of the Kharkiv offensive is to turn south into Donbass, the rivers will turn from being Defensive Lines the UA must deliberately assault across and instead into Ground(Riverine) Lines of Communication, running in the same operational direction as the offensive itself. So in theory a potential source of friction will become a source of speed & mobility.

Now, the winter obviously will reduce the usefulness; I doubt you could trust the river ice with anything heavier than a van or light truck. Not just in terms of weight, I think UKR gets decent river ice, but sheer quantity of vehicles and rate of use. Im sure there will be areas/stretches than can take a heavy truck etc, but no river ice is reliable for very long under heavy and continuous vehicular use. Then, come the spring....

So the undeniable fact that the UA will need to turn south at some point and will then be flowing with the grain of the topography rather than against it, will absolutely be a factor in the pace and flow of operations against the RUS.

An interesting analogy might be the Shenandoah Valley in the US Civil War. Essentially a giant channel into the Union heartlands, it became a critical strategic theater. Once the Confederates were eventually beaten off (sorry Stonewall) it then became a dagger into the heart of the Confederacy. The point being, that both sides used the natural grain of the land to enable & amplify operational and strategic missions and objectives.

Another example would be the Allies hitting the Rhine - once they had that, they had a logistical artery par exellence to support the advance east and south.

The Donbass watershed essentially flows in the same ultimate direction of Ukraine's strategic (not just operational!) objectives - to the Azov sea. 

Conversely, Russia will be still  be defending and communicating  across the topological grain, offering lots of opportunities (as already exist) for choking GLOCs at bridges and river crossings. So their friction will remain and steadily be increased.

---

Now, I'm thinking of this here, at this early/mid-ish point in the UA Kharkiv Donbss counterattack. I'm pretty sure some clever lads in the UA GenStab are right now badgering geographers, hydrological engineers, river police, structural and transport engineers and anyone else they can think of (maybe we can too?) for insights and ideas of how to exploit this coming synchronicity in the UA's national war aims and the natural topography of the battlefield.

This is good insight.

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Thick *** winter rubber boots with added boot lining (can be easily switched when gets wet, "rotation") combined with thick *** quality winter socks. Indestructible 

Yes, this style of boot. But the entire issue is that there has to be a continuous supply of dry liners forward, preferably with socks, and all the logistics to dry them and maintain rotation. But it is the difference between huge trench foot casualties, and a functioning army. Continual freeze-thaw with precipitation is by far the hardest thing to function in.

Edited October 4, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I can say it's the other way around. Winter in the Kherson region is milder than in the rest of Ukraine. There is much less snow here. The proximity of the sea softens the climate

That was my understanding too. Cold and snow, like other bad things, comes to Ukraine from Russia

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

maybe he should skip a meal or two and he'd have more guys left.  

out of likes.  This is professional level humor.  Well done.  

The best recruiting poster ever "great opportunities in our team!**"

the fine print: ** because previous team killed