How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Causeway?

Nope! A causeway is a passage from a mainland to an island. The island and the causeway are completely surrounded by water. An earthen dam is a dam made of earth, vs an earth-core dam or a concrete dam. Earthen dam is just more descriptive of the dam.

[acrashb]

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is not correct though. Land mine production and use has been very limited since the convention entered into force, even by those countries that did not sign it.

I believe it is correct in terms of mines in the ground, which is the most important metric.

From wikipedia:
" In 2011, the number of landmines dispersed is higher than ever since 2004, landmines being dispersed in Libya, Syria, and Myanmar", sourced from: Organization: More landmines installed than in years - Arms industry - Foreign countries - HS.fi (archive.org)

 

[sburke]

oops, did I say that with my outside voice?

Quote

 

During his speech, Sablin insisted it was not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between Russia and the West.

He also complained that Ukraine is getting military support and aide from multiple nations while Russia has no allies and needed to regroup to continue.

Following his speech, Russian State TV host Vladimir Solovyov said: "A small correction: You said we have no allies, but we do have Belarus."

Sablin hit back, while smiling: "Belarus is a part of Russia."

Belarus TV host guest Vadim Gigin interrupted and sternly said: "No Belarus is an independent nation, it's a republic."

 

 

Belarus TV Guest Hits Back After Being Told Country Is 'Part of Russia' (msn.com)

[acrashb]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think that is actually from Dilbert

And now I'm in the same boat

Yes,  Scott Adams invented Elbonia.

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by acrashb

[Elmar Bijlsma]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think that is actually from Dilbert

 

Elbonia | Dilbert Wiki | Fandom

Elbonia is an impoverished Eastern European country in the Dilbert universe. In the comic strip, and originally in the TV show, its major commerce was mud. There are also mentions of a currency called the Eye-Crud. Path-E-Tech Management often outsources work there, and has a factory for their subsidiary ElboCo. 

Thanks for that. I did not know the origin story of Elbonia, though their mud exports were briefly mentioned.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Thanks for that. I did not know the origin story of Elbonia, though their mud exports were briefly mentioned.

heh I have a personal affinity to Dilbert..  Scott  Adams was an employee of Pac Bell.  My background is in telecom out here in Calif. mostly so he's a bit of a legend.

My favorite was when he took a shot at the new Lucent logo.  I was working for Lucent at the time and that dang logo was on the side of my truck.  I took some red tape and changed it to a ban side until I was told I had to remove it.  

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Bullsh#t.

I think we're done here.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

If these guys arent given adequate winter equipment they won't only lose limbs or even freeze to death. They will probably use fires to stay warm, at least the most of them. Even the cheap commercially available Chinese-made thermals, or NVG thermal attachments, or even NVG's will pick up this thermal signature like it's the only thing on the battlefield.

The Russians are truly screwed if they can't equip with winter clothing. The technology is just too advanced, and cheap nowadays. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that there will be a significantly higher rate of target acquisition and destruction of RU forces by well equipped light combat patrols with simple thermal optics.

Camps will be located, hit with artillery, rinse and repeat.

The winter is brutal, it cannot be explained. If you spend time in the mountains you will know what I mean.

With a little searching to understand the weather conditions where most of the RA is in Ukraine it shows that there is a very high level of suck. The temperatures don't get very low on average, 20-35F in January, so not too bad from my northern climate perspective. BUT, they also have around an average of 8 days of RAIN in the southern areas mixed with those temps. That multiplies the suck considerably. Especially if it is hovering around the above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. Halfway decent clothing and enough shelter to keep you out of the wind will be enough to keep you alive in those moderately cold temps but you mix in wet and mud and those cold weather casualties will skyrocket.

Now take that with what we know so far about RA logistics. I know this has been covered here but just for reference they have shown an inability to keep their forces supplied with minimum amounts of material needed since the beginning and whenever they get put under stress of any kind they miserably fail. My guess is the RA will be classified by the UN as a humanitarian crisis by the time winter is half over. 

The only way I can see the mobiks being of any use is if the RA somehow manages to get them all there in a short amount of time, probably in between Donetsk and Zaporhoweveryouspellit. Give them all 2 magazines and a bayonet, point them north and charge. The sheer mass may give them some gains and maybe even a break through. The human wave attack will suffer immense casualties on the modern battlefield but if they can throw more bodies at the UA than the UA have munitions to stop, eventually the mass will take ground. This could give Putin and the RA a "successful offensive" and gets almost all the mobiks killed for a few kms of ground which alleviates the logistical problem of keeping them supplied and alive. 

I know that I'm being pretty optimistic today but that is the best case I could think of, the rest are all net negatives for the RA.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

whoops

Edited October 3, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[akd]

Road from Svatove to Kremmina is cut.

 

[Artkin]

16 minutes ago, sross112 said:

wet and mud and those cold weather casualties will skyrocket.

Oh man, it's one thing hitting a trail when it's all powder and the temps never get above 32. When you're in that inbetween, finding the right way to clothe yourself just from your boots up ALONE is very difficult. Don't even get me started on footwear! You will sweat, it will freeze, and you will be miserable. There's little to no avoiding it unless you're truly experienced, and can handle being "comfortably cold" all day long. Given that the RU army has lost nearly 1/4 of it's initial force, they most likely lack cadre who are experienced enough to know what to do in these mixed conditions. One week of training Mobilik's wont even prepare them for sub-freezing temps.

I hadn't mentioned the mud, but yeah. Gives me WW1 trench warfare thoughts in spite of how this war has been fought - from obstacle to obstacle.

It now makes sense to me why 80th arctic mrb was deployed to the Kherson rear. When the winter hits, this will be the worst area to be in, and they will be the best trained troops for the mission. The 80th should already be used to operating in wide open, windy, snow-blind conditions.

16 minutes ago, sross112 said:

My guess is the RA will be classified by the UN as a humanitarian crisis by the time winter is half over.

I totally agree. The elements here will be no better than they were in the winter of 1942. Especially when you're sending troops into battle with the same 80 year old winter kit. Overcoats? Come on. That's fine for static defense, but on active missions an overcoat will be nothing but a hassle to operate in. This is not a modernized army.

I do think the Zaphorizia front is lost for the Russians. Ukraine is able to bombard them from across the Dniepr river with their newly-found gains in the Kherson direction.

I would argue the Zaphorizia and Kherson front are nothing but a problem for the Russians. They are operating with too low of numbers per km of frontage as it is. They need to suck it up and reduce their lines. The narrow territory they have (Low surface area with a large perimeter length) is completely unfavorable for the type of war they are fighting, as this opens up many possibilities to have advanced munitions to strike deep into any part of the Russian rear. Besides the whole not having enough men or equipment on the front in the first place.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Artkin

[dan/california]

If I may attempt to refocus the conversation just a little bit..... Do we think the Russians get routed out of Svatove in 12, 24, 36, or 48 hours? Should we start a pool? I don't have access to NATOs all seeing eye, but the only thing I see slowing down the AFU is muddy roads and the supply of fuel. The Russians are talking and fighting like spent force.

 

18 minutes ago, sross112 said:

With a little searching to understand the weather conditions where most of the RA is in Ukraine it shows that there is a very high level of suck. The temperatures don't get very low on average, 20-35F in January, so not too bad from my northern climate perspective. BUT, they also have around an average of 8 days of RAIN in the southern areas mixed with those temps. That multiplies the suck considerably. Especially if it is hovering around the above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. Halfway decent clothing and enough shelter to keep you out of the wind will be enough to keep you alive in those moderately cold temps but you mix in wet and mud and those cold weather casualties will skyrocket.

Now take that with what we know so far about RA logistics. I know this has been covered here but just for reference they have shown an inability to keep their forces supplied with minimum amounts of material needed since the beginning and whenever they get put under stress of any kind they miserably fail. My guess is the RA will be classified by the UN as a humanitarian crisis by the time winter is half over. 

The only way I can see the mobiks being of any use is if the RA somehow manages to get them all there in a short amount of time, probably in between Donetsk and Zaporhoweveryouspellit. Give them all 2 magazines and a bayonet, point them north and charge. The sheer mass may give them some gains and maybe even a break through. The human wave attack will suffer immense casualties on the modern battlefield but if they can throw more bodies at the UA than the UA have munitions to stop, eventually the mass will take ground. This could give Putin and the RA a "successful offensive" and gets almost all the mobiks killed for a few kms of ground which alleviates the logistical problem of keeping them supplied and alive. 

I know that I'm being pretty optimistic today but that is the best case I could think of, the rest are all net negatives for the RA.

Trench foot and frost bite are not mutually exclusive, Really wet weather at right around freezing is highly conducive to both. if the AFU can just operate enough to force the mobiks to man the trenches they will do an awful job of digging, the weather and the mud will do the rest. I would infinitely rather deal with a hard freeze than a muddy freeze thaw that never stops.

 

Edit: The Argentines had significant weather casualties in the falklands for instance.

Edited October 3, 2022 by dan/california

[Bulletpoint]

46 minutes ago, acrashb said:

I believe it is correct in terms of mines in the ground, which is the most important metric.

From wikipedia:
" In 2011, the number of landmines dispersed is higher than ever since 2004, landmines being dispersed in Libya, Syria, and Myanmar", sourced from: Organization: More landmines installed than in years - Arms industry - Foreign countries - HS.fi (archive.org)

 

It seems the link is saying that the number of new landmines being used in that particular that year was higher in 2011 than at any year since 2004. Not about the total number of landmines existing in the ground.

It would be better if they compared to 1997 when the treaty was signed, or to 1999 when it came into effect.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[mosuri]

59 minutes ago, Butschi said:

A short time of flight is an advantage in a nuclear exchange as it shortens the time to react. Otherwise there wouldn't have been a Cuban missile crisis. How much of a difference it makes - I don't know.

 Well, true. And the shorter the potential flight time, the more stressful the decision whether to react or not if you're unsure your readings are correct or not, so there is a destabilizing element in that.

Of course, not all NATO members allow nuclear weapons on their soil -- as far as I know e.g. Norway and Denmark do not, I don't think Finland and Sweden would either. It might well be that Ukraine would also decline to have them located on her soil, remains to be seen.

Quote

I said nothing about any incentives for NATO to exploit that advantage of the need for paranoia.

Fair enough, I read too much into your "all the geostrategical benefits" comment.

Quote

Yes, but the same is true for Poland. I remember that back in the argument was that the missile shield was too protect (at least among others) against Iran. Ukraine would be well placed for that, I think?

Playing with Google Earth, looks like Aegis Ashore placed in Ukraine and/or Romania together would protect Central Europe reasonably well from the direction of Iran. Based on interception ranges mentioned online, anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Artkin]

The ECWCS system is very good, and was designed for this weather in mind. Being able to walk yourself dry in an hour is VITAL on the field. You can't do that in wool, but you can in synthetics.

I own nearly every piece of PCU, fire resistant, stretch goretex, you name it. I couldn't see myself surviving in combat dressed in anything more civilian. The flexibility that these systems provide is incredible. You can seriously get by with only food and bivouacing. It makes sense why these items were pushed toward SOF and recon elements initially (labeled PCU) before being rolled out to the rest of the military (ECWCS).

Edited October 3, 2022 by Artkin

[Audgisil]

44 minutes ago, sburke said:

Belarus TV Guest Hits Back After Being Told Country Is 'Part of Russia' (msn.com)

The moron going off on his rant at the beginning also talks about "the need for censorship" and then 5 seconds later says how they need to "talk openly about the problems that their military and industry face." Which is it?

How do you argue with people who don't even bother to stick to any kind of internal logic, no matter how flawed it might be?

[Artkin]

54 minutes ago, acrashb said:

 

Nice boots, the thick rubber on the sole will help insulate your feet for long periods of times. In contrast here are the current Russian issue boots:

Note how they have little to no sole. These are dangerous in the winter. Especially since they aren't made of plastic, but instead probably a rubber.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Artkin

[BlackMoria]

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:

1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.

2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.

3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.

I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.

The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

[dan/california]

Good thread.

[RandomCommenter]

10 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  

And frankly you wouldn't wish it on a nicer bunch of fellas.

I guess Karma's a bitch.

[Letter from Prague]

Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots.

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots.

Just when I thought that my opinion of that jizzmuffin Elon Musk couldn't get any lower...

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots.

 

You say that Russia is doomed. Come on, Elon Musk himself is on their side

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here is the newest trend in Western idiots being idiots.

The Kardashians will way in soon.......

[Huba]

Excuse me for interjecting into the discussion, but there are some actual news from the front! Romanov Light channel (one associated with Wagner IIRC) has two things to raport:

- UA took Dudchane! No comment needed here.

- UA are storming Krasnorichenske! This means that not only they cut the Kreminna - Svatove road, but also Krasna river and basically cut through  the "Svatove line" already. If confirmed, this is huge news!

https://t.me/s/romanov_92

Oh, and for the on time news about the fronline situation, I really recommend this profile:

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Huba