How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

CIT claims it was 3AK. Yes, that 3AK. And here is a description of its current state:

Quote

this army corps turned out to be a crowd of untrained people with the latest technology, which they practically do not know how to control. They are also very angry now, because their short-term contracts have become indefinite, and some also do not receive the required payments.

 

Indeed. (The bear paw marking has been associated with 3 AK.)

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

TLDR: surprisingly small relative drop to the total amount of about 800 pieces total.

[Huba]

"Wollt ihr den totalen Krieg?" The vibe is certainly  Goebbelsian. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

"Wollt ihr den totalen Krieg?" The vibe is certainly  Goebbelsian. 

yeah I notice they are singing that in Moscow.  How about they go to kherson and belt out a few stanzas.

[acrashb]

"A deep dive into risks for undersea pipes"

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/explainer-a-deep-dive-into-risks-for-undersea-pipes

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

"Wollt ihr den totalen Krieg?" The vibe is certainly  Goebbelsian. 

Yes, but they are very enthusiastic about Siberian peasants doing the fighting. They seem to have completely different a view about loading their own rear ends in a fifty year old MTLB to charge AFU with Javelins.

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 

Watched some and listened to most.  Strong statements which have been repeatedly backed up by action.  Good.

The answer to the Ukrainian report was understandably a dodge.  I would have been shocked if it were anything other than that.  Therefore, I'm not taking anything negative from this answer.

Steve

[akd]

Said to be Liman.  “That got the Russians”??

 

[akd]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes, but they are very enthusiastic about Siberian peasants doing the fighting.

Like they said, they don’t care about the price.

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Cederic said:

[I was only gone for half a day and missed a whole conversation, but fortunately read ahead, so comments to Haiduk and TheCapt regarding post-war Russian cultural change removed so that Steve doesn't have to spank me. Neither of us would enjoy that.]

And I thank you for that.  I have tendentious, so spanking could be as painful for me as you

Steve

[RandomCommenter]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine does not need NATO membership to be protected, the bilateral security guarantees given to Sweden and Finland show that. Craft them to be specific for opposing nuclear escalation and that might be great.

I'd like to add Chemical and Biological weapons to that ideally.

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

And of course, Putin is transliterated Poutine in French...

My French translation would be "Poutain" (de merde)

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Wonderful to hear, too many Americans take Canada for granted.  And conversely, many Canadians are foolishly afraid of our American cousins; some of my acquaintances worry that the US could get bored and invade Toronto, to which I reply "what are you on, crack?  The poutine is in Montreal!"

Indeed...we're very lucky on both sides of the 49th Parallel to have such good neighbours.

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

you did notice he said "if".  He didn't actually make an unqualified yes.  

Lol very sharp but don't make this more difficult than it need to be . I guess the verdict is still out until some other class of beings able to understand the concept of 'deserving' will serve it. Until then and maybe even after, I guess it does no harm not bothering ourselves about it too much.

If it was ok to exist yesterday, I guess it's ok today

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, akd said:

Indeed. (The bear paw marking has been associated with 3 AK.)

 

We know that at least some 3rd Army Corps forces were deployed there just ahead of the Kharkiv offensive.  IIRC it was about battalion sized.  Is there more there now?  Any sense of units moving from the south in significant numbers?

Grigb's quote from Khodakovsly is not surprising to anybody here, is it? 

The 3rd Army Corps is an interesting part of Russia's story of desperation to replenish its ranks.  The units were equipped adequately, in some cases very well, and received some training.  They went to the front and have produced no tangible positive impact for Russia.  Maybe Putin saw this and said "heck, why are we even bothering with a month of training and equipment for the newly mobilized?  Doesn't do any good and costs us a lot of money.  Plus, we don't have any equipment to give them even if we wanted to".

Steve

 

 

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Wonderful to hear, too many Americans take Canada for granted.  And conversely, many Canadians are foolishly afraid of our American cousins; some of my acquaintances worry that the US could get bored and invade Toronto, to which I reply "what are you on, crack?  The poutine is in Montreal!"

My friends from the Great White North, like to refer to the U.S. as "Canada's Basement"  where they hide their simple minded cousins when polite company comes to visit.

In turn I tell them that Canada is actually our 51st state and is officially known as "Northern North Dakota"

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Putin makes it ever clearer that the only thing worse than a bunch of smaller countries ruled by blood thirsty nut cases is one large country ruled by a blood thirsty nut case.

Even our resident Eeyore, is now speaking of Ukrainian masterstrokes, that everything you need to know about this war.

This is one of the lessons the game has taught me. Even huge initial advantages can be squandered if you are stupid.  I refrain from the relevant meme per Steve's wishes.

I love the little pro forma loyalty bit at the bottom.

I bet they had a heck of a time finding new pants on the Kherson side.

Aren't you cheery this morning.     Hopefully he is in fact lurching towards a very special cup of tea.

Apologies but I've been talking to a lot of folks and nobody seems to see any other way this ends.

• He nailed his flag to the mast with the annexations.
• He deep sixed any possibility of even influencing the Germans with the promise of oil when he blew up the pipeline.
• He blew off China's private warnings and India's open ones.
• He has so denuded Russian power centers of capable people that there is nobody to stop him. 

When you have a mad dog with nukes without any diplomatic, economic or domestic political considerations he needs to worry about except that losing the war he's in puts that all at risk then...yes...that's likely where this is headed. 

[kraze]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Watched some and listened to most.  Strong statements which have been repeatedly backed up by action.  Good.

The answer to the Ukrainian report was understandably a dodge.  I would have been shocked if it were anything other than that.  Therefore, I'm not taking anything negative from this answer.

Steve

Dunno. At first look it looks like Russia escalated and NATO didn't (no modern tanks, no ATACMS, let alone allowing GMLRS strikes against russian territories). And it's a dangerous sign if it stays so.

Also mobilization was a much higher escalation but there was no answer to counter that either. Doesn't it tell russians that they can proceed with escalation?

Even a formal "roadmap" that is not binding would've been a good counter-escalation while being completely safe and not really making NATO commit to anything.

Edited September 30, 2022 by kraze

[Seedorf81]

Saw some footage of Putin today.

Am I the only one who thinks he might be under the influence of some kind of drug?

I don't do drugs, but I have been working for years with alcoholics, drug-addicts, drug-dealers, and schizophrenics (all of them drug users). I have seen many a time how people change when taking drugs.

The way Putin suddenly lost his fear of Covid, kept moving constantly (even while standing still, he seemed extremely energetic, like his body wanted to move; needed to move), and his uncanny good (totally ridiculous considering the situation) humour, indicate to me that he was under the influence of something.

 

  

[sburke]

China Wants New Partners For Its Moon Missions As Its Relationship With Russia Cools (msn.com)

[Splinty]

As an American I love our Canadian cousins. After all they gave the world Rush. Which to me is the greatest band to ever exist.

[danfrodo]

Interesting video about a tank-supported infantry attack on RU position in Kharkiv region.  Battalion commander watch w drone and commanded using that info -- like he was playing CM 

 

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Apologies but I've been talking to a lot of folks and nobody seems to see any other way this ends.

• He nailed his flag to the mast with the annexations.
• He deep sixed any possibility of even influencing the Germans with the promise of oil when he blew up the pipeline.
• He blew off China's private warnings and India's open ones.
• He has so denuded Russian power centers of capable people that there is nobody to stop him. 

When you have a mad dog with nukes without any diplomatic, economic or domestic political considerations he needs to worry about except that losing the war he's in puts that all at risk then...yes...that's likely where this is headed. 

So do you think NATO will try to preempt an actual launch? With either long range missiles, or Stealth aircraft? Try to take out Putin himself and hope the next guy is brighter?

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Dunno. At first look it looks like Russia escalated and NATO didn't (no modern tanks, no ATACMS, let alone allowing GMLRS strikes against russian territories). And it's a dangerous sign if it stays so.

Responses do not have to be immediate for them to be effective.  We also have seen NATO be very tight lipped about some things and then later we find out things were happening.

I don't know if MBTs or ATACMS are in the works or not, but NATO has not shown any signs of backing down to Russian escalation before so I think it is best to assume they aren't doing so now.

Steve

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So do you think NATO will try to preempt an actual launch? With either long range missiles, or Stealth aircraft? Try to take out Putin himself and hope the next guy is brighter?

 

I think everything's on the table but no idea what's been decided. The key objective is to avoid a general exchange.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Saw some footage of Putin today.

Am I the only one who thinks he might be under the influence of some kind of drug?

I don't do drugs, but I have been working for years with alcoholics, drug-addicts, drug-dealers, and schizophrenics (all of them drug users). I have seen many a time how people change when taking drugs.

The way Putin suddenly lost his fear of Covid, kept moving constantly (even while standing still, he seemed extremely energetic, like his body wanted to move; needed to move), and his uncanny good (totally ridiculous considering the situation) humour, indicate to me that he was under the influence of something.

From what I can see the consensus is that Putin had a major health problem within the last 2 years, culminating around the start of the war.  Lots of theories about what it might be, but something for sure.  I personally believe it was physical and not mental, however it is possible that Putin is cracking under the stress and taking something to relieve him of it.  Say what you will about Putin, but he is Human and the stress he is under must be enormous.  That has to be taking a toll on him.

Steve