How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Also, Norway announced $300M weapons package for Ukraine:

 

 

[Taranis]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Christ, no hint of deescalation.

 

Make no mistake, Western public opinion, an "eventual" end to the war with Ukraine will not end the conflict with the West. I hope no one will fall into this trap

[Huba]

Just now, Taranis said:

Make no mistake, Western public opinion, an "eventual" end to the war with Ukraine will not end the conflict with the West. I hope no one will fall into this trap

I really don't think so. He mentioned every internal issue in the West that he could in his speech, real and imagined, up to LGBT menace and Satanism taking over the western countries  Can't treat that crazy talk serious. What is notable is that he refrained from further nuclear threats - and given that he escalated in every possible way already (NS, mobilization, annexation) he really seems to be out of options now. What we all have to do is to carry on and support Ukraine.

[FancyCat]

Destroying NS1 and NS2 makes a lot of sense now, his speech is a complete broadside against the West.

 

[TheVulture]

12 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Christ, no hint of deescalation

Of course not. Putin's only strategy for dealing with confrontation is to keep doubling down and keep escalating until the other side is too cautious to keep matching him.

 

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

I really don't think so. He mentioned every internal issue in the West that he could in his speech, real and imagined, up to LGBT menace and Satanism taking over the western countries  Can't treat that crazy talk serious. What is notable is that he refrained from further nuclear threats - and given that he escalated in every possible way already (NS, mobilization, annexation) he really seems to be out of options now. What we all have to do is to carry on and support Ukraine.

Those are not just internal issues for the west tho, they are internal and external issues for Russia, there's been a focus on LGBT values being exported by the west to weaken Russia for example.

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

I really don't think so. He mentioned every internal issue in the West that he could in his speech, real and imagined, up to LGBT menace and Satanism taking over the western countries  Can't treat that crazy talk serious. What is notable is that he refrained from further nuclear threats - and given that he escalated in every possible way already (NS, mobilization, annexation) he really seems to be out of options now. What we all have to do is to carry on and support Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin criticizes the United States

Quote

Putin attacks the United States: “There is a unipolar world order in its essence, undemocratic and not free. The United States is the only country in the world to use nuclear weapons twice by destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I recall that the United States and the British razed, without any military necessity, during the Second World War, the cities of Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne, and many other German cities. (…) The United States left a terrible mark in the memory of the people of Korea and Vietnam with barbaric napalm bombings and chemical weapons. »

He seems to imply that he never considered nuclearizing a foreign country. As if the Russians would ever do that. Seems the US calls about nuclear threats must have had their effect.

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

Vladimir Putin criticizes the United States

He seems to imply that he never considered nuclearizing a foreign country. As if the Russians would ever do that. Seems the US calls about nuclear threats must have had their effect.

I wouldn't over read into the speech. Putin will, if he feels like he must, not hesitate to drop a tactical nuke. He will then simply blame it on NATO. 

[Bearstronaut]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Vladimir Putin criticizes the United States

He seems to imply that he never considered nuclearizing a foreign country. As if the Russians would ever do that. Seems the US calls about nuclear threats must have had their effect.

As if the Soviet Union wouldn’t have nuked Berlin in a heartbeat if they had had nukes in 1945.

[kraze]

Khuilo: "russophobia is racism and it spreads around the whole world"

So even Vlad thinks I'm racist now. Except "phobia" implies fear and it certainly isn't that.

[LongLeftFlank]

Wow.  This is so.... whiny.

 

Stalin or Hitler, hell even Mussolini, would have b**ch slapped this yutz.  'Razor' Tojo would simply have lopped off his head without comment.  As for Timurlane or Batu Khan.... bring me the boiling oil. But the cheap stuff.

(Too. Many. Memes. Must. Resist.)

Not with a bang, but with a whimper?

Edited September 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

Also some stuff about U.S biolabs was in his speech.

I'm leaning towards this being a reflection of his true mindset. It's a very ranting speech filled with grievances. Most aimed at the west. Not a lot of talk about Ukraine at all.

 

[Grigb]

RU boasts about forces to free Lyman

Quote

To the Red Lyman, in order to unblock and change the operational and tactical situation in the combat area, 4 combat tactical groups from 58A, reinforced with heavy vehicles, are moving. Aircraft with FAB-500 and [FAB-]3000 [bombs] have been lifted into the air.

 

[akd]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Regarding the armor penetration of mortar mines. Here is the result of a mortar hit on the Tiger. The mine did not explode, but simply broke through the roof and floor of the armored car

Interesting claim here that this is actually from GMLRS that went straight through the Tigr while it was crossing the Nova Kakhovka bridge:

 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Question not specifically for @Grigb @Haiduk @akd but you guys might have a better feel for it

When reading 503rd Guard MMR, (or what ever other units referenced) do we have a feel for how many boots on the ground this really is. We know its certainly not at full strength, but what does a Regiment mean in this context, 1, 2 or 3 BTG ? It would be nice to strip away the "looks good on paper" and get to the reality of what shape these units are currently in.

 

Tom Cooper suggests the following units in the Lyman are

Russians in Lyman: gauging by reports from the social media, the group of forces encircled there is controlled by the 20th Combined Arms Army. At the first look, one might say, 'ah, VSRF'. That's wrong. The troops there are including:

- Bars-13
- Bars-16 (also known as 'Kuban' unit; this unit used to have 1,000 combatants; about 400 are inside Lyman)
- 208th 'Cossack' Motor Rifle Regiment (LPR)
- 503rd GMRR/19th MRD seems to be holding the way in/out

It is possible that the 204th Motor Rifle Regiment is around, too. That said, what's left of the 144th MRD is outside the pocket: this is on the northern side of it, in the Borova area.

Re. BARS: this is a Russian abbreviation for 'Special Combat Army Reserve' (full designation is actually BARS-2021). This was a program to mobilise 100,000 volunteers from former veterans of the VSRF for a 3-years contract. If the Rosgvardia is 'Putin's Pasdaran', BARS is something like 'Putin's Republican Guards': they're drafted from the Russian Cossack Association, handsomely paid (US$3,500 a month, plus allowances and awards), highly motivated, and well-equipped.

Other known BARS units are battalion-sized, and, when fully mobilised, about 1,000-strong. Nearly all are meanwhile deployed in Ukraine. The few others I've heard about so far are:
- Shironin Battalion (from Kirov)
- Bars-14 (I know this is one of units the ZSU considers 'criminals' and is taking no POWs from)
- Bars-15 (also known as 'Piatnashka'; receiving same treatment like -14)
- Bars-18 (ditto)

For involved ZSU units, the following can be assessed:
Kupyansk
- 92nd Mech
- 3rd Tank
- Kraken SF (battalion)
- possibly a battalion of the 80th Motor

Oskil
- 1st 'Ivan Bohun' Special Purpose Brigade (est. 4 Mar 22; including troops from 19 countries; has 6 battalions)
- 25th Airborne
- 66th Mech (persistently ignored by Ukrainian social media, but reported often by the Russians)
- 17th Tank
- 4th NG Brigade
- Azov SF (battalion)

Lyman
- 4th Tank
- 79th Airborne
- 81st Airborne

Siversk
- 80th Airborne
- 114 TD
- 115 TD

Bakhmut is defended by
- 58 Motor
- 72nd Mech
- 93rd Airborne
- 28th Artillery
- at least a brigade (in total) of the TD, but I'm not sure what units are involved.

Additional units 'detected', but not localised, yet known as involved 'somewhere in northern Donbass' are:
- 1st Tank

 

Thank you! 

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU boasts about forces to free Lyman

 

Well then, I guess the Zaporizhzhia front has been significantly weakened.

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

Hearing all this nonsense about the west and its values makes me wonder if Putin is actually stupid enough to attack a NATO country? Perhaps the Baltics? This feels like he is laying the groundwork for something like he did before he made his last mistake by invading Ukraine, but then I'm no expert. Would he really be that dumb? And if so, how would they attack given their army is being chewed to bits in Ukraine?

Might be me overthinking things, he could just be laying the groundwork for a long hard slog in the current "special military operation" and perhaps full mobilisation?

MMM

[Zeleban]

 

Russian recruits are training to force water barriers.

[LongLeftFlank]

58 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

Hearing all this nonsense about the west and its values makes me wonder if Putin is actually stupid enough to attack a NATO country? Perhaps the Baltics? This feels like he is laying the groundwork for something like he did before he made his last mistake by invading Ukraine, but then I'm no expert. Would he really be that dumb? And if so, how would they attack given their army is being chewed to bits in Ukraine?

Might be me overthinking things, he could just be laying the groundwork for a long hard slog in the current "special military operation" and perhaps full mobilisation?

MMM

Anything is possible, I suppose, including 11D Chessmaster doubling down on this stupid on stilts.....

W:  Basically the largest mobilisation is in Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh oblast, the bordering territories....

From Moscow, 50 people went. Yet just from the small Rossish, 300 people went, in one day.... Because Moscow will immediately start a strike, on Red Square....

The order by Voronezh oblast governor was signed, no one can leave.

Something terrible is happening. And only border territories are involved.... But we, we are not needed by anyone. And we are being sacrificed.

Hmm, perhaps ATACMS won't be needed, railwaymen in these 'bordering territories' could provide all the disruption required.

Perhaps Ukraine could end up increasing in size by 20%?  Would the above Oblasts, plus Kuban make adequate reparations?  (And YES, you need to take the people).

Edited September 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU boasts about forces to free Lyman

 

Ohhh noooes the attack of the unguided bombs! 

Seriously,  wtf. The GPW has really rotted its way into any critical thinking. 

[Grigb]

Civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmyan about QR codes for catching mogilized

Quote

In Moscow, they will introduce control over military liable men by QR codes. Telegram channels report this information was sent to state-owned companies, citing a source from a subsidiary of Sber [bank - biggest bank in RU].

Well, it's not surprising. The technology proved itself during the previous terror [campaign - to force people vaccinate with RU vaccine], it is ridiculous not to apply it during the current one. What remains is to develop criteria by which the male (by the way, and not only male) population will be obliged to receive the coveted QR code on Public Services [site] and present it at the first request of the [military] patrol. There is no code - detention until clarification and a fine. The green QR code is temporarily free. Red - the patrol immediately puts the citizen's face on the Sobyanin tile [hint on infamous corruption case when Moscow Gov put tiles everywhere] and calls for transport [to pick him up]. Half an hour to change clothes, the right to one call - and the car is already taking you to the place of the last [heroic] feat in life.

 

[DerKommissar]

5 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

Hearing all this nonsense about the west and its values makes me wonder if Putin is actually stupid enough to attack a NATO country?

I think he's too much of a coward to do something like that. He's focusing on the West, in order to manage ethnic tensions.

The highest population of Ukranians, outside of Ukraine, is in Russia. If he's gotta blame anyone for his failiures, it's going to be those dastardly Anglo-Saxons.

Russian nationalism is as peculiar, as American, or Canadian, nationalism. Since, Russia is a country of immigrants -- despite Putin's doublethink.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ohhh noooes the attack of the unguided bombs! 

Seriously,  wtf. The GPW has really rotted its way into any critical thinking. 

Being culturally under-developed, the RU public is obsessed with the size of everything. So, for them it is like message - panic khokhols, we are going to hit you with biggest pennis bomb we have

[Huba]

And here's an answer from Zelensky:

Now I wonder if that was agreed somehow with at least some key members - I really hope it was. It's not going to happen while the hostilities are ongoing, but has to happen after. Having clear prospect of NATO membership makes UA negotiation position stronger IMO. I'm sure that PL will support the application.

[CHEqTRO]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

And here's an answer from Zelensky:

Now I wonder if that was agreed somehow with at least some key members - I really hope it was. It's not going to happen while the hostilities are ongoing, but has to happen after. Having clear prospect of NATO membership makes UA negotiation position stronger IMO. I'm sure that PL will support the application.

Stolberg announced yesterday a press conference for today without announcing the topic. Something tells me that this is what he is going to talk about, indicating that they indeed did know.