How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.

Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 

I have (or had already?) some friends in Russia. Typical Russian middle class, which enjoys the life and almost completely apolitical. They weren't chavinists or snobs, who consider that only Russian culture, language and face of life  and have many sympaties to Ukraine, they even suppotred our Maidan, but they anyway were adhered to the opinion "why do you so much want to join the West if we are culture&religious close nations and one people at all, though with some minor differences?" So if such moods had "liberals", what sh..t in the heads of more "deep nation" representatives?

Typical picture in airports - this man is going to leave Russia, scaring mobilization, but he weared in Z-marked closes. Now on the border with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russians are hastly deleting all war-support symbolic from own cars. I belive, 2/3 of theese "refugees" supported the war.

But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII 

 About "Kraze doesn't consider Russians as a nation". You just didn't understand his words. In English names of nation representatives "American, Ukrainain, Italian" (nouns) and mean "having feature", like "Ukrianian, American, Italian culture" (adjectives) sound the same. In Russian language the word "Russkiy" means "representative of Russian nation" is adjective, not the noun. It reflects not "who are you?" but "whose are you?". So, this ethnonim really more hystorical construct, including Slavs, Caucasians, ugro-finns, buriats, and many other nations, composing Russian state. 

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

There is one remaining line, NS2, it is notable, if you want to reopen NS2, you would need to lift sanctions on it that was initialized from Germany.

Another interesting bit of speculation from German TV in that direction: The question was what a robust reaction to this incident would be. The answer was that by now there is not much left in the sanction toolbox apart from an all out gas/oil embargo.

So if the EU was to intensify sanctions, that could lead to severe tension between Germany but also Italy (they want acutally to entirely cancel all sanctions) and the EU. So, again, maybe another attempt at driving a wedge between EU(/NATO) members.

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats (and hardcore siloviks) are actually afraid of the possibility that Kremlin plans some kind of peace deal (like Minsk 3 or something). They want total war until total victory. How would you push Putin into the total war direction? By staging False Flag attack on RU asset. Something important, something that Putin likes, but not really critical for RU. Just saying...

This, of course, means that people other than Putin are making very significant decisions without his knowledge and against his wishes.  Which puts this into an entirely different range of possibilities.

My previous speculation is that Putin wanted gas shut down to lessen the chance of someone cutting a deal with the West behind his back, such as "if you agree to start buying gas from us again, we can arrange for Putin to have a heart attack".  Destroying NS1 is kinda like this:

One way to prevent something from being used against you is to smash it, even if it is something you otherwise value.

As wrote earlier... scorched earth is a policy that Russia is very familiar with.

Steve

[FancyCat]

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.

I want to just point out, along the lines of Haiduk's post, your assertion that you can't blame a entire people for the actions of their government, precludes something like German collective guilt being possible or correct to adopt. 

Significant parts of that were imposed on the German people by the victorious Allies. 

https://www.voanews.com/a/german-today-see-nazi-defeat-as-liberation/2753783.html

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.

Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 

I have (or had already?) some friends in Russia. Typical Russian middle class, which enjoys the life and almost completely apolitical. They weren't chavinists or snobs, who consider that only Russian culture, language and face of life  and have many sympaties to Ukraine, they even suppotred our Maidan, but they anyway were adhered to the opinion "why do you so much want to join the West if we are culture&religious close nations and one people at all, though with some minor differences?" So if such moods had "liberals", what sh..t in the heads of more "deep nation" representatives?

Typical picture in airports - this man is going to leave Russia, scaring mobilization, but he weared in Z-marked closes. Now on the border with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russians are hastly deleting all war-support symbolic from own cars. I belive, 2/3 of theese "refugees" supported the war.

But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII 

 About "Kraze doesn't consider Russians as a nation". You just didn't understand his words. In English names of nation representatives "American, Ukrainain, Italian" (nouns) and mean "having feature", like "Ukrianian, American, Italian culture" (adjectives) sound the same. In Russian language the word "Russkiy" means "representative of Russian nation" is adjective, not the noun. It reflects not "who are you?" but "whose are you?". So, this ethnonim really more hystorical construct, including Slavs, Caucasians, ugro-finns, buriats, and many other nations, composing Russian state. 

I hope that scumbag in the picture gets grabbed by FSB and dragged to the war he so obviously loves.  Does he have zero self awareness?  We don't know what percentage of russians are in love w being a nation of conquest and enslavement.  Probably younger people are less rabid than older.  we just don't know.  One can't do a poll in Russia, it means about as much as one in china or north korea.  You have to be either very brave or very stupid to say "I disagree w Putin" on the record.

 

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.

Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 

I have (or had already?) some friends in Russia. Typical Russian middle class, which enjoys the life and almost completely apolitical. They weren't chavinists or snobs, who consider that only Russian culture, language and face of life  and have many sympaties to Ukraine, they even suppotred our Maidan, but they anyway were adhered to the opinion "why do you so much want to join the West if we are culture&religious close nations and one people at all, though with some minor differences?" So if such moods had "liberals", what sh..t in the heads of more "deep nation" representatives?

Typical picture in airports - this man is going to leave Russia, scaring mobilization, but he weared in Z-marked closes. Now on the border with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russians are hastly deleting all war-support symbolic from own cars. I belive, 2/3 of theese "refugees" supported the war.

But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII 

 About "Kraze doesn't consider Russians as a nation". You just didn't understand his words. In English names of nation representatives "American, Ukrainain, Italian" (nouns) and mean "having feature", like "Ukrianian, American, Italian culture" (adjectives) sound the same. In Russian language the word "Russkiy" means "representative of Russian nation" is adjective, not the noun. It reflects not "who are you?" but "whose are you?". So, this ethnonim really more hystorical construct, including Slavs, Caucasians, ugro-finns, buriats, and many other nations, composing Russian state. 

Haiduk as always, your thoughts are appreciated, and this discussion is a distraction from the thread, but I don't think all of what Kraze has posted can be explained by language issues.

As you know there is a huge amount of support reflected in this forum for the fight Ukraine is waging and most of us would like our governments to be doing a lot more.  There is also a lot of support for the idea that Russia needs a "denazification" process similar to what post war Germany faced and there is a collective guilt as most Russians seem (at least through the lenses we are confined to) to be supporting a barbaric invasion.

There is a line though that most will not cross and a number of his statements have crossed that line. 

You noted above there are Russians who opposed the war from the start and feel shame for it.  Right there you are noting a different reality.  Russia has a long difficult road to tread after the cruelties inflicted by this war before it will be able to restore any relationship to the west much less Ukraine.  There is no doubt about that.  But accepting that in fact there is a road to tread for Russia is a statement for the future that is distinctly different than much of what some of us are reacting to.

[Butschi]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.

Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 

Well, at the start many Germans were, shall we say, less than enthusiastic about the Nazis and Hitler. In 1939 most did not want a war. After the victory against France Hitler was suddenly a superstar. You can of course blame the Germans general population for Hitler. They could have resisted or at least not cheer. All true and of course it was not only the system that somehow magically seduced the people.

But there are three simple facts of human nature: Most people are no heros, most people like to be on the winning side and most people are mostly concerned with their own well-being and so will adapt to the circumstances in a way that minimizes friction. That doesn't release them from responsiblity but it is something that will happen with almost all peoples and societies.

It also means that once the system changes, those same people will happily go along with the new system as long as the system leaves them alone and allows them to lead a decent live.

Now, my crystal ball had some serious malfunctions lately so I am cautious with my predictions. But I am convinced that those same Russians who now don't protest against Putin & cronies or even support them will happily support another system as long as it lets them live a decent live.

Hope that's not too rose tinted in your book.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Butschi

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war.

This is not the case at all.  Nobody here thinks that the problem with Russia is just a couple of people holding power all on their own.  We've had plenty of conversations about this from many directions, including detailed discussions about why we should not expect the Russian people to rise up and replace Putin any time soon.  We've also talked about the most likely scenario if Putin is removed that an even worse guy is in his place.  And Russians will go along with it too.

Where the disagreement comes from is how much can the average Russian be blamed for being a part of a system which has spent hundreds of years grooming people to behave the way that they do.  The old saying is behind every bad dog is a bad owner.  The Russian people are the "dogs" in this analogy, the ruling class is the "owner".

It is understandable and correct to wish Russia to be destroyed as a nation state.  That attitude is reasonable and, in my opinion, valid even before February.  But what comes after?

If we look to the end of WW2 the United States had two competing plans for a conquered Germany:

• Morgenthau Plan
• Marshall Plan

The Morgenthau plan was based on the sort of thinking that Kraze has expressed.  And that is the Russian people, every single last one of them, is a supporter of endless wars and wants nothing more than to destroy its neighbors.  The answer to that is strip them of all industry and reduce them to poverty forever.  No technology greater than what it takes to harvest cabbage and potatoes.  There, problem solved!

The Marshall Plan, on the other hand, took the opposite approach.  And that was to hold the Germans responsible for their actions, but through a combination of carrot and stick give them a chance to become better people.

Russia needs to pay for this war in every way conceivable.  Inflicting pain and punishment on the average Russian is justified as well.  But what is the ultimate goal?  To endless keep them in national jail cell until the end of time because the assumption is they can never change, or to give them a way to show the world that they are capable of learning from their mistakes by assuming they are not all rabid dogs to start with?

Germany and Japan were given a chance and they showed us that no society is beyond redemption if they are given an opportunity to prove themselves.  Serbia is trying hard to live up to their potential as good people too, but it's slower with them because they weren't occupied for decades.  Others have shown improvement as well, such as Jordan.

Be angry with Russians.  Expect it will be hard for them to change.  But do not treat them as if they will never be anything more than the worst of Humanity.  That would be a grave mistake.

Steve

[Probus]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Did you really find my idea that ridiculous?

Not at all. You just happened to be the lucky guy I picked on @Bulletpoint.

[keas66]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

Haiduk as always, your thoughts are appreciated, and this discussion is a distraction from the thread, but I don't think all of what Kraze has posted can be explained by language issues.

As you know there is a huge amount of support reflected in this forum for the fight Ukraine is waging and most of us would like our governments to be doing a lot more.  There is also a lot of support for the idea that Russia needs a "denazification" process similar to what post war Germany faced and there is a collective guilt as most Russians seem (at least through the lenses we are confined to) to be supporting a barbaric invasion.

There is a line though that most will not cross and a number of his statements have crossed that line. 

You noted above there are Russians who opposed the war from the start and feel shame for it.  Right there you are noting a different reality.  Russia has a long difficult road to tread after the cruelties inflicted by this war before it will be able to restore any relationship to the west much less Ukraine.  There is no doubt about that.  But accepting that in fact there is a road to tread for Russia is a statement for the future that is distinctly different than much of what some of us are reacting to.

I mean  , really  ,  do you think you would have been arguing in this same fashion during WW2   with regards American policy towards Japan  ? Why are you getting so queasy about not giving the Russians the same treatment ? Because Nukes ?

As far as I can see the Russians are behaving no better than the worst of the SS  Divisions or units of the Imperial Japanese Army  .  They slaughter civilians  with pleasure , mine schools , target civilian populations without hesitation when they are able  .  They deserve  the hangman's noose if caught and that  includes all of the current Russian leadership .

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by keas66

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If we look to the end of WW2 the United States had two competing plans for a conquered Germany:

• Morgenthau Plan
• Marshall Plan

The Morgenthau plan was based on the sort of thinking that Kraze has expressed.  And that is the Russian people, every single last one of them, is a supporter of endless wars and wants nothing more than to destroy its neighbors.  The answer to that is strip them of all industry and reduce them to poverty forever.  No technology greater than what it takes to harvest cabbage and potatoes.  There, problem solved!

Let's also remember that using a stick alone without a carrot was basically tried after WW1 in the form the Versailles contracts. We all know how that turned out.

[poesel]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII

I'd like to repeat: 'the' Germans were not denazified after WWII. Some heads were chopped off, some went into prison. But for the great majority, it was 'don't ask, don't tell'. Or a bit more precise: 'shut up in public'.

The prospect of prosperity and freedom (in this order) enabled the following generations to lose that mindset. Adults do not change their mind (a lot), you have to wait until they die for their ideas to die with them.

Russia lacks any positive democratic experience, so I guess that process takes longer than in Germany. That is, if it ever starts...

If you try to speed that up by shooting the people with the wrong mindset en masse, you only make their children angry and the process doesn't start at all. It is quite infuriating, but nothing but patience and time does work (IMHO).

Btw. same goes for the other side, too. I mean those who seek revenge (rightfully, no doubt). But some injuries can't be mended, ever. The hate only dies with the person.
It's a small miracle that France & Germany stopped shooting at each other for long enough so that nobody alive holds a grudge (at least not enough to start a war).

Sorry, sounds a bit morbid that my solution is just to wait until everybody dies.
And no rule without exemptions: the Balkans and Israel/Palestine. These guys can hold grudges over hundreds or thousands of years. So let's hope Russia doesn't join that club.

[akd]

Nevermind, both NS2 pipes were ruptured:

 

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean  , really  ,  do you think you would have been arguing in this same fashion during WW2   with regards American policy towards Japan  ? Why are you getting so queasy about not giving the Russians the same treatment ? Because Nukes ?

As far as I can see the Russians are behaving no better than the worst of the SS  Divisions or units of the Imperial Japanese Army  .  They slaughter civilians  with pleasure , mine schools , target civilian populations without hesitation when they are able  .  They deserve  the hangman's noose if caught and that  includes all of the current Russian leadership .

 

 

Er... who in this thread has ever said we shouldn't be going after the murders?  Nobody.  So why are you saying this?

As for what to do with the Russian civilians who support, implicitly or explicitly, the actions of their government, I don't think hanging 140,000,000 people is really viable.  I mean, I suppose we could go for genocide as punishment for their actions, but then that would make us no better than them, wouldn't it?

Steve

[FancyCat]

Incorrect, culture was a key platform of both the Nazi and Japanese state and recognized as such by those they oppressed and the victors of WW2, https://blog.oup.com/2020/07/the-dividing-line-between-german-culture-and-nazi-culture/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism_in_Shōwa_Japan

In Japan, widespread reforms on every level of Japanese society were dictated by the occupation authorities: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction

Germany, what is Denazification if not the modification of German culture? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification

 

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?

As we can see throughout history thru the many deportations of national and ethnic groups in both Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, and now, with the deportations of Ukrainians into Russia without the ability for them to leave (loss of passports) or the ability (loss of funds), combined with being sent into remote regions of the country, a key aspect of Russian control over her lands and people is Russification. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russification

What kraze references when speaking about "Russian ethnicity" is referring to this process of erasing the culture of the original person and people. 

 

 

And like i linked earlier, the process of ending Ukrainian language and teaching which is ongoing in the recently occupied regions of Ukraine are part of Russification, and so is kidnapping kids, 

 

Reposting again, 

 

Acting like Russia has a point in speaking up for Russian speakers the_Capt, acting like there is a risk of ethnic tensions that suggest maybe the Donbas needs to break away, is ignoring the very long history of Russification that now results in significant portions of Ukraine with Russian language speakers, and whom Russia now wages war upon to cynically "defend" them. 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Let's also remember that using a stick alone without a carrot was basically tried after WW1 in the form the Versailles contracts. We all know how that turned out.

Heh... I was wondering how long it would take someone bringing this up.

Yes, it is clear that if you want to impose long term collective punishment upon a people because for their skills at conducting wars, you had better be prepared to go all the way with it.  Which is what Morgenthau advocated.  "The problem wasn't that the Allies were too tough on Germany, it was they weren't tough enough!" was his basic line of argument.

Personally, aside from not wanting to treat the Russians as subhumans because that makes me no better than them, I do believe the world would be a better place with a much improved Russian population.  If that's in 10 states vs. the current 1 state, I'm fine with that provided we have a strategy in place to deal with nukes and the possibility of 10 Putins vs. the current 1.

For the most part European Russia (the ethnic Russians, if you wish to call them that) have shown that they would rather be closely tied to the West more than not.  I say use Adidas track suits and iPhones as the carrots, but this time with sticks in place if they don't behave.

Steve

[panzermartin]

I find it funny that many high profile Germans were enlisted in the CIA post WW2 or even took NASA to the moon with the rockets that were killing kids in London but here some people call for collective punishment of Russia because it invaded Ukraine. Talking about bias. 

[JonS]

If you want to be seen as the good guy - and get the goodies that come with that - then you have to do the good things.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean  , really  ,  do you think you would have been arguing in this same fashion during WW2   with regards American policy towards Japan  ? Why are you getting so queasy about not giving the Russians the same treatment ? Because Nukes ?

As far as I can see the Russians are behaving no better than the worst of the SS  Divisions or units of the Imperial Japanese Army  .  They slaughter civilians  with pleasure , mine schools , target civilian populations without hesitation when they are able  .  They deserve  the hangman's noose if caught and include all of the current Russian leadership .

 

 

This is exactly the point, though, only two hundred people were convicted at Nuremberg, and not all of them were hung. The world said let there be an end to it. For all my ranting about Scholz, that, defeat and occupation was enough to change Germany. I think there is an argument adding one zero to that number, but to do more than that is probably impossible, both physically and politically. We need to install a better government in Russia in away that gives some possibility of winning the peace.

I do nominate Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for the very last hanging, she should have to watch all the other ones.

[JonS]

58 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean  , really  ,  do you think you would have been arguing in this same fashion during WW2  

Except, of course, that is exactly what happened. The Marshall and Morgenthau plans were actively being debated while the biggest battles of WWII were still being waged. The debate continued post war, and Marshall wasn't formally adopted till '48, but the start of it was no later than 1944.

Edited September 28, 2022 by JonS

[A Canadian Cat]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Serbia still has a lot of problems (this war highlights that) and can not be completely counted on to be a good neighbor, but it is largely out of the war making business and it's old cultural habits seem to be improving over time.  Imperfect as it might be, it's working.

Good example. Yeah that would be a good outcome, if something similar could happen with Russia. I wonder if we have any hope of getting there.

[panzermartin]

And about the treatment of Germany and Japan post WW2. Marshall was the way to go and the smart choice fortunately . But It wasn't that much out of kindness towards the people of those ruined countries but mostly they should be viable enough as assets for the containment of USSR and communism. A potato economy driven Germany wouldn't be that of an obstacle for the reds, Morgenthau was really short sighted in that aspect too. In the same way US must be logically thinking a functioning, western leaning Russia could prove valuable for containing China one day. Those who call for taking Russia back to the stone age aren't reading the future well. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by panzermartin

[chuckdyke]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Personally, aside from not wanting to treat the Russians as subhumans because that makes me no better than them, I do believe the world would be a better place with a much improved Russian population. 

I noticed all the draft dodgers most speak decent English and are better informed and skilled in IT. The English language as a hearts and minds tool can't be underestimated. So far, a potential division of mathematicians (artillery)IT specialist are now living outside Russia.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia's not only short on forces to stop Ukrainian advances, but they have no significant alternative lines of defense set up.  We've discussed this was their problem in Kharkiv and a friend who just returned from there confirms that aside from some sandbag type checkpoints at key road junctions, there wasn't much of anything all the way to Kupyansk.  He noted that most of the checkpoints looked abandoned rather than defended against advancing Ukrainian forces.

So, we have an area that was directly behind the frontline for months having near zero fortified positions.  What are the chances that there is anything in the areas that Ukraine is pushing into now?  No chance at all, I say.  Therefore, the only limiting factors on Ukrainian advances is logistics and risk.  Logistics is obvious, risk is the standard weighing of rapid moves by light forces that might not be reinforced vs. moving ahead only when there's enough forces to "guarantee" terrain taken can be held.

Looks like most of northern Luhansk taken since February is going to revert to Ukrainian control very soon.  It's also going to make things rather interesting for the rest.  Severodonetsk is going to soon be threatened.  Imagine what the RU Nats are going to say if that falls in a day or two like Izyum did!

Steve

About the war -

From the perspective at the beginning of Ukraine’s northern counteroffensive, is the Ukrainian military’s ability to sustain and develop the offensive and exploitation this long and this successfully surprising? 
 

As each new Russian temporary line is breached, what forces remain farther to the Russian rear? Do we know any correlation of forces? With so much of its combat power tied down in Kherson Oblast, what can Russia bring to stop the Ukrainian advances? Apart from rain. Does it have fire brigades sufficient for this? Or all the major population areas/transportation junctions strongly held by Russian regular units and tough fake republics’ units? Please, for the moment let’s leave out nuclear weapons. I’m curious about the conventional warfare at present.

After the carnage of the past months and the reports of so much of the fake republics’ forces being used and disposed of as cannon fodder, are their thick *manned*  defensive lines throughout those occupied territories, right up to the Russian borders?

 

[G.I. Joe]

31 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I find it funny that many high profile Germans were enlisted in the CIA post WW2 or even took NASA to the moon with the rockets that were killing kids in London but here some people call for collective punishment of Russia because it invaded Ukraine. Talking about bias. 

I don't know if it's bias so much as hindsight. We have over 75 years of history to show that the Marshall Plan and the MacArthur shogunate worked. If we were having this discussion eighty years ago, I'm sure most of the people calling for collective punishment of Russia would be taking a similar line towards Germany, Japan and Italy...