How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

16 minutes ago, acrashb said:

A couple of guys with specialized scuba gear and significant experience, specifically "deep dive".

"some" explosives looks like 100kg per boom.  Explosives are controlled goods in every country; stealing 220 pounds or more isn't smuggling out a stick of TNT in your pocket.

So I'm not buying the "private actor" argument, it's too unlikely.  

Russia has been found mapping underwater communications cables as early as 2015; could use the same capabilities on underwater gas pipes; is clearly unconcerned with Interntional condemnation / sanctions of any kind; and may have just sent a clear message about what it can do if it wants to.  

It's possible that this wasn't done by Russia, just very unlikely.

If it really needed 300 kilos of explosives, then yes, I agree it doesn't seem very likely to be a private actor.

I was under the impression that it would need significantly less since the pipes are not armoured and since they are under pressure from within, making them easier to burst open.

But why would Russia need to send the signal that they are able to destroy an underwater pipe.. did anyone think they were not capable of this?

If anything, it has merely drawn attention to keeping other pipes safe, so I'm guessing the Norwegian navy is now patrolling their pipelines.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Zeleban]

A good example of Russian xenophobia. In the early days of the war, they detained a group of students from Sri Lanka and held them for several months, subjecting them to torture.

[danfrodo]

Maybe the pipeline discussion could move on to what can actually be done to counter this?  We saw post about increased sanctions.  But what can we do militarily?  Will we target RU mini-subs loitering in international waters near pipelines?  

I would love to have cruise missiles blast RU sub facilities, but that is obviously insane level of escalation.  But maybe warning RU to back off or their subs will be targeted?  That's still a big escalation but at least is more proportional.

[acrashb]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

If it really needed 300 kilos of explosives, then yes, I agree it doesn't seem very likely to be a private actor.

I was under the impression that it would need significantly less since the pipes are not armoured and since they are under pressure from within, making them easier to burst open.

But why would Russia need to send the signal that they are able to destroy an underwater pipe.. did anyone think they were not capable of this?

[...]

On the first, please review the link under my original post re: 100kg.  It's based on seismic readouts.

On the next, it's the difference between someone waking around like they're about to punch someone, and actually punching someone.  The first may possibly be discounted, it's just a threat about intent; the second may not be discounted, it's a demonstration of intent, capability and will.

Anyway, I think it's Russia and will reserve final judgement until various agencies confirm.  

Edited September 28, 2022 by acrashb

[Grigb]

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

[Huba]

 

My first thought is that UA suffered some noticeable attrition and needs replacements. Just the wear and tear after this few months could do that, without any losses to enemy action. But even if say half of these are replacements, it still will considerably increase the UA fleet. Which in turn points to increased, rather then decreased use of GMLRS, in turn meaning that US has opened it's ammo storage doors wide open and probably considerably cranked up the production too.
It surely will be a big morale booster for Ukrainians, and a signal for RU that US means business. Really made my day

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe the pipeline discussion could move on to what can actually be done to counter this?  We saw post about increased sanctions.  But what can we do militarily?  Will we target RU mini-subs loitering in international waters near pipelines?  

I would love to have cruise missiles blast RU sub facilities, but that is obviously insane level of escalation.  But maybe warning RU to back off or their subs will be targeted?  That's still a big escalation but at least is more proportional.

Think the only REAL response would be a massive exclusion zone for all Russian vessels. You would have to blockade the Baltic Sea more or less. I think that is more or less declaring war. I think giving Ukraine a 100 ATACMS to go with their new HIMARS systems is the best way to make the point short of that. The railroad side of the Kirch straight bridge falling in the water would be excellent.

 

[Letter from Prague]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I fear we're in for a lot more trouble and misery before all this is over. Russia may be losing on the battlefield, it can still inflict a lot of pain on the West. 

I kind of disagree.

Unless Russia starts nuking the world, they can only inflict pain on West if the West ****s up.

Say, Russia makes gas more expensive - the West is collectively rich enough to take it with some discomfort. Not all of people of the West are richt enough to take it, but the countries collectively are, and can help their people. Only if the countries **** up and don't care for their people, it turns to actual pain.

Of course, I am not super duper confident in all the countries handling it. Mine haven't drop the ball yet, but we'll see.

Also, some of the "****ing up" can show up as "not tracking Russian money in politics and fixing it" and it seems basically every country is dropping ball on that.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, acrashb said:

On the first, please review the link under my original post re: 100kg.  It's based on seismic readouts.

 

Yes, but you said 100 kilos per explosion, and there were three blasts. In total, they would need 300 kilos. Not easy to source even on the black market I would guess.

[Butschi]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe the pipeline discussion could move on to what can actually be done to counter this?  We saw post about increased sanctions.  But what can we do militarily?  Will we target RU mini-subs loitering in international waters near pipelines?  

I would love to have cruise missiles blast RU sub facilities, but that is obviously insane level of escalation.  But maybe warning RU to back off or their subs will be targeted?  That's still a big escalation but at least is more proportional.

I guess that depends a bit on whether we only have strong suspicions or actually have irrefutable evidence. In the latter case: present it in front of the UNSC, at the very least. If not... maybe Putin even hopes for some kind of military response in the absence of evidence. "Look, they have not presented evidence, for all we know they did it themselves, it's just a pretence for evil NATO to attack innocent Russia." Would be a nice little propaganda victory to increase Russian "enthusiasm" for the mobilization.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Butschi

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

Staroblisk is that way gentlemen >>>>> Do give the Russians our regards.

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Think the only REAL response would be a massive exclusion zone for all Russian vessels. You would have to blockade the Baltic Sea more or less. I think that is more or less declaring war. I think giving Ukraine a 100 ATACMS to go with their new HIMARS systems is the best way to make the point short of that. The railroad side of the Kirch straight bridge falling in the water would be excellent.

 

IMO it would be a great, relatively proportional response. The finding part of ****ing around, totally deserved. Edit: I meant the ATACMS part, not sinking RU ships

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

IIRC the yesterday's Rybar mentioned a recon right up to the outskirts of Kreminna. It would be lovely if UA would follow it through the way this guy suggests. Bold, but with extremely high prize.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

So the prize is Kremina?  What's defending that? Does UA need to take it or just cut it off (N&S),  pocket the Lyman and Kremina garrisons and pound them out of existence? 

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

My first thought is that UA suffered some noticeable attrition and needs replacements. Just the wear and tear after this few months could do that, without any losses to enemy action. But even if say half of these are replacements, it still will considerably increase the UA fleet. Which in turn points to increased, rather then decreased use of GMLRS, in turn meaning that US has opened it's ammo storage doors wide open and probably considerably cranked up the production too.
It surely will be a big morale booster for Ukrainians, and a signal for RU that US means business. Really made my day

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

My first thought is that UA suffered some noticeable attrition and needs replacements. Just the wear and tear after this few months could do that, without any losses to enemy action. But even if say half of these are replacements, it still will considerably increase the UA fleet. Which in turn points to increased, rather then decreased use of GMLRS, in turn meaning that US has opened it's ammo storage doors wide open and probably considerably cranked up the production too.
It surely will be a big morale booster for Ukrainians, and a signal for RU that US means business. Really made my day

Biggest thing this tells me ammo is still not looking to be an issue.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

So the prize is Kremina?  What's defending that? Does UA need to take it or just cut it off (N&S),  pocket the Lyman and Kremina garrisons and pound them out of existence? 

The PRIZE is taking Starobliisk and flanking the Russians right out of Siverodonetsk. No clue if they can do it. Am as worried about the mud as I am the three day mobiks the Russians seem to be down too.

[keas66]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Think the only REAL response would be a massive exclusion zone for all Russian vessels. You would have to blockade the Baltic Sea more or less. I think that is more or less declaring war. I think giving Ukraine a 100 ATACMS to go with their new HIMARS systems is the best way to make the point short of that. The railroad side of the Kirch straight bridge falling in the water would be excellent.

 

 NATO vessels patrolling  all pipeline areas and actively  searching for Russian vessels . Time to  crack open Command:Modern Operations

[sburke]

Putin seems to be doing his part to remove the threat of further Russian military adventures.

 

“Unprepared as individuals, not part of a team, lack of trust in leaders, no belief in a cause, little chance for survival, no support from citizens—all contribute to failure,” tweeted Mark Hertling, a retired U.S. Army general. “Yeah, 300,000 mobilized. Premeditated murder of his own army by [Russian president Vladimir] Putin.”

By Deploying Untrained Draftees, The Russian Army Is Committing ‘Premeditated Murder’ (msn.com)

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

IMO it would be a great, relatively proportional response. The finding part of ****ing around, totally deserved.

IIRC the yesterday's Rybar mentioned a recon right up to the outskirts of Kreminna. It would be lovely if UA would follow it through the way this guy suggests. Bold, but with extremely high prize.

 

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

The PRIZE is taking Starobliisk and flanking the Russians right out of Siverodonetsk. No clue if they can do it. Am as worried about the mud as I am the three day mobiks the Russians seem to be down too.

 

Forcing  some dicey Russian defensive lines to fall back two rivers in one go . I meant if they pull this off  this could be the beginning of a rout ?

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 

 

Forcing  some dicey Russian defensive lines to fall back two rivers in one go . I meant if they pull this off  this could be the beginning of a rout ?

The next BIG decision point might be the pre 2/24 fortifications Just north of Luhansk. No clue if the AFU has enough reserves to push that far, no clue if the there will be any Russians to man those defenses when they get there.

EDIT there was a rumor a week or two ago that Putin was abandoning Luhansk to try and holdthe land bridge to Crimea. It is looking truer by the day.

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by dan/california

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your political bias is overriding your ability to objectively look at the facts.

As I stated earlier, the US doesn't have to lift a finger to help Russia keep up the pressure against it.  Russia is doing a fine job all on its own.  If the US blew it up eventually that information would come out and it would set back relations with Europe by decades at the very time that the US' influence in Europe is higher than it has been in decades.  I question many decisions my government has made over the years, but I've never seen one that has used Russia style logic.

The US has no history of such action.  Russia, on the other hand, is hard to examine without seeing many examples of attacks on its own people and infrastructure to support it's goals.

Who did it is very plainly obvious... Russia.  The why, however, is still unclear.  That is not unusual situation.  Very often when Russia does something it takes a little while to figure out what their thinking was.  And even then, it's often not very clear.  Hell, we're still arguing about exactly why Russia started this insane war!

Steve

I agree It doesn't have a made in USA stamp. But that doesn't mean that some 3rd party couldn't have done this under their guidance. If a single country expressed publicly their annoyance with the nord stream that was US through very official voices, Biden, Nuland etc...

Is Russia that irrational? Maybe. Until now they hesitated to admit they are blackmailing EU with the gas by referring to technical issues. Now they blow up everything like an angry madman. There must have been some very important motive to do this. Blackmail Europe further through the ukrainian pipeline? It didn't work so far. Divide Europe and USA? An internal matter between energy companies in Russia and the deep state?

Doesn't make much sense to destroy a valuable asset for ever, a negotiating card and a symbol of their prosperity and bridge with Europe. What is next, they will blow up their Kerch bridge

[panzermartin]

Also I believe technically it was a difficult task for Russia to carry out. Unless there is a way to blow these from inside? How could they approach with submarine /drone and go unnoticed in high intensity waters scanned 24hr by hostile forces ? This perfection in execution doesn't feel very russian to me. 

[BlackMoria]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I agree It doesn't have a made in USA stamp. But that doesn't mean that some 3rd party couldn't have done this under their guidance. If a single country expressed publicly their annoyance with the nord stream that was US through very official voices, Biden, Nuland etc...

Is Russia that irrational? Maybe. Until now they hesitated to admit they are blackmailing EU with the gas by referring to technical issues. Now they blow up everything like an angry madman. There must have been some very important motive to do this. Blackmail Europe further through the ukrainian pipeline? It didn't work so far. Divide Europe and USA? An internal matter between energy companies in Russia and the deep state?

Doesn't make much sense to destroy a valuable asset for ever, a negotiating card and a symbol of their prosperity and bridge with Europe. What is next, they will blow up their Kerch bridge

Heh.  Sure it doesn't make sense to you.   Just like all the decisions Russia has made in the months prior to 24 Feb and since don't make any sense to most of us.   But here we are.  If Russian sabotaged their pipeline, it makes as much sense as all their other decisions concerning this war to date.   We are in Alice in Wonderland territory now and have been for some months now.   We are at the point the Red Queen (Putin) is screaming off with their heads.    

Edited September 28, 2022 by BlackMoria

[womble]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Unless there is a way to blow these from inside?

Russia owns the pipeline, or at least has full scale technical access to it. They could easily have inserted a maintenance pig into the line with the requisute quantiy of explosives on board and sent it downstream until just outside national territory. Piece of the proverbial cake.

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, womble said:

Russia owns the pipeline, or at least has full scale technical access to it. They could easily have inserted a maintenance pig into the line with the requisute quantiy of explosives on board and sent it downstream until just outside national territory. Piece of the proverbial cake.

This seems more possible than outside acrion