How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

18 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

 

Personally, I also think that there's a hidden agenda in Germany's and also other NATO countries' policy in that they want to prevent Ukraine becoming so powerful that it would lead to a rapid military collapse of Russia with a risk of nuclear use once Ukrainian tanks start rolling into Crimea.

It's possible. Another possibility is that Germany and other West-European countries fear a new 'Warsaw Pact' after the war, in which countries like Poland, Hungary and Ukraine will start to go their own way and tear NATO and the EU apart. That is also my fear. A strong and independent Eastern Europe would also be in the American interest, as a buffer against Russia and as an alternative for NATO. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[danfrodo]

We're not seeing collapse on east side of Oskil, but still spectacular progress relative to the previous 6 months of this war.  Another spectacular disaster for Putin is in the making.  How many of these can he survive?  And what will happen when suddenly the cell phones of newly mobilized corpses aren't responding to the familys' urgent messages?  When will Russians turn their anger in the right direction for a change?

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, that's enough for me. I am sorry, Germany doesn't act the way you want us to. I am the last one who wouldn't admit what we have done wrong in the past and where we still fail. But this really goes too far. Your first paragraph was interesting then you go on bashing Germany based on rumors you can't prove and the rest is just a rant which is frankly insulting to a high degree and things like "when they haven't done anything worth talking about" is just plainly, factually, wrong. You make it sound like we are allied with Russia or something.

I usually refrain from quoting the bible but "He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her."

 

The Dingo fiasco - 

U.S Embassy Berlin quote tweeting a BILD article where Scholz denies tanks to Ukraine, calling for all aid possible to Ukraine be given, and is up to the individual country to decide. - 

 

Inspector General of the German Navy - remarking directly with Indian counterparts. 

No Marders to Ukraine - 

This was in April, even with logistical and training issues, surely after months, Ukraine would be able to field a force if Germany had the guts to start then. - 

 

 

If Germany is making such grand statements like this: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/09/16/germany-must-shake-off-its-habit-of-finding-excuses-for-inaction/

Quote

Life: it’s unfair. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht gave a long-prepared speech in Berlin on Monday, in which she laid out her thinking on strategy. She asserted confidently that Germany was destined by “our size, our geographical location, our economic power, in short our heft” to be a “leading power in Europe, whether we like it or not.”

Maybe its time we ask Germany to either get its head together or question Germany why despite sounding so in sync on its position in Europe, why it is acting like a sheep in regards to Ukraine. 

Do you need receipts on former Chancellor Schröder? Do you need receipts on Russia erasing Ukrainian contribution to Soviet victory? - 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/06/we-had-to-do-this-berlin-museum-to-drop-russian-from-name

https://www.dw.com/en/on-victory-day-past-and-present-collide-in-berlin/a-61737696

 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

and as a alternative for NATO. 

huh?  Why would the US want an alternative to NATO?

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

huh?  Why would the US want an alternative to NATO?

Because they aren't aggressive enough and don't invest as much in their armed forces as the US would like?

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian Su-24 strike near front lines with high-drag dumb bombs (and a good reminder of how off CM is with dumb bomb employment):

 

Near Davydiv Brid, Kherson oblast. Airstrike called by 61st infantry rifle brigade

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

The situation is very strange right now. Looking at what is happening we see an imminent RU pocket forming and/or RU collapse. RU on the other hand behaves like nothing is happening. 

Anyway, according to Mashkovets posts RU tried to build defenses along Krasna river. So, indeed RU most likely does not have much to the West of Krasna river. 

I want to clarify myself - when I said RU on the other hand behaves like nothing is happening, it was not about RU actions - RU tries really hard to stop UKR. 

But what I really wanted to say is that unlike during Balaklya-Izum RU does not demonstrate concern about the situation. They behave like nothing is happening - there is hard fighting but nothing unusual. That's why I got the feeling that they do not really understand how bad the situation is.

[Haiduk]

@Grigb

Update your map again ). Russians recognized UKR troops reacaptured Katerynivka in second time and seized Kolodiazi 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Pontoon crossing likely in Oskil village

U-90A lurking at periscope depth on right side:

 

[Kinophile]

[Tenses]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's possible. Another possibility is that Germany and other West-European countries fear a new 'Warsaw Pact' after the war, in which countries like Poland, Hungary and Ukraine will start to go their own way and tear NATO and the EU apart. That is also my fear. A strong and independent Eastern Europe would also be in the American interest, as a buffer against Russia and as an alternative for NATO. 

Seriously as long as Western Europe will see Easterners as threat and not as equal partners, history will repeat itself.

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Seriously as long as Western Europe will see Easterners as threat and not as equal partners, history will repeat itself.

Well, that lies most of all in the hands of 'Easterners' themselves with both Warsaw and Budapest causing most of the problems for the EU, not only with regard to democracy and human rights, but also the fact that Poland 80 years after the war  demands 200,000,000,000 zlotys (€1.3 trillion) war reparations of Germany....

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/most-poles-believe-germany-should-pay-poland-war-reparations/

I even consider it possible that Berlin has more worries about Poland, than about Russia.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[NamEndedAllen]

9 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

I was just referred to this tweet by Madi Kapparov.

Based on my studies of history and years of residing and working in Moscow, St. Peterburg, Budapest, Belgrade, Prague, Warsaw, and Podgorica, and traveled extensively in that region of Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Russian Federation Far East (Tomsk) and Kazakhstan, I would agree with most of Madi’s points in his tweet:

Nazism is mainstream in Russia.

What is Nazism? Abstract away from the distractions of economics and markets. Nazism is a form of fascism founded on the delusional belief of one group of people, generally based on ethnicity, being superior to another group of people. 1/

So too the Russians, who have been absorbed by the culture of their ethnic exceptionalism and historic revisionism promoting their ethnic superiority in all aspects, think that they are more privileged than any other ethnicity or nation. 2/

The Russians think that no rules apply to them. They think that they can do whatever they please because they are exceptional.

When the USSR collapsed the new Russian government fought very hard to become a successor state to the Soviet Union. 3/

Much like the USSR became a successor state to the original Russian empire, the Russian federation had to become a successor state to the USSR. Ideologically it was critical to them to preserve imperial continuity of exceptionalism and cultural and historical superiority. 4/

Without the succession, Russia would have had become equal to the former colonies, such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc. That was simply unacceptable to the Russians. They also maintained their centuries-long militarism, as it all feeds into their Russian exceptionalism worldview. 5/

In the 1990s Russia was in dire economic straights and it was completely irrational to maintain a huge military and a large nuclear arsenal. But it was culturally and ideologically of an absolute necessity to the Russians. Why? It is part of their exceptionalism beliefs. 6/

Long before Putin, the war in Transnistria happened. The Russians then had no doubt in the necessity to protect ethnic Russian "separatists" in Moldova, whom the empire moved there over the years. However, just a few years later they went to war with Chechen separatists. 7/

Transnistria was acceptable, while Chechen separatism, a liberation movement, was unacceptable to the Russians. The Russians apply no rules to themselves. You see, they think they are special, exceptional, and superior to the rest of the world. 8/

Chechen independence was absolutely repugnant to the Russians. Negotiations with the Chechens were absolutely unacceptable for an average Russian, until major military defeats and economic strains in 1996. The Russians returned in 1999 to put the "savages" in their place. 9/

Any suggestions for Chechen independence from abroad faced an aggressive push back from the Russians. It is all driven by Russian exceptionalism deeply rooted in their culture. 10/

For the Russians, the protectionism of their empire and their imperial ambitions come naturally. They are an organic part of their individual and national psyche. 11/

Over the years, I have witnessed countless times how aggressively the Russians react to any attempts at an independent foreign policy by the former colonies. Typically, such attempts are called "ungrateful." 12/

The Russians expect their former colonies to be grateful. Grateful for what? In their perverted and revised historical view, they did "so much" for the former colonies, they "civilized" them. 13/

When the former colonies do something independently from Russia, the Russians feel betrayed. “How could they? We did so much for them.” Such Russian behavior is axiomatic. They will hold a grudge and retaliate when an opportunity presents itself. 14/

The reality is that the Russians demand the former colonies to be grateful for the misery, death, destruction, starvation, and sometimes assimilation. Such is the Russian way to “civilize” the “savages.” 15/

The Russians also demand the rest of the world to be grateful to them for the victory over Nazi Germany. In their worldview it is the ethnic Russians *alone* who defeated German Nazism in 1945. “The Great Patriotic War” became one of the pillars of Russian exceptionalism. 16/

Anyone who questions the victory in WW2 the ethnic Russians appropriated will face self-righteous anger and a flurry of insults from them. However, it is unclear why the world should be grateful to them: the USSR was allied to Germany till the very first day of Barbarossa. 17/

Should I even mention the brutal Russian occupation of Eastern Europe following the end of WW2? The Russians expect gratitude for that too. The Russians demand gratitude from the world and from the former colonies, they are special, they are exceptional. 18/

2014 was a point of no return. That year centuries long Russian chauvinism regressed into Russian Nazism. I will ignore Crimea. Russia manufactured oppression of Russian speakers in the Donbas and invaded with “separatists.” That is just a few years after the Chechen Wars. 19/

Again, Russian “separatism” is acceptable, Chechen separatism is unacceptable, because rules do not apply to the Russians. They are exceptional. They allow themselves to do what is unimaginable to them if others do it. That is the essence of Russian Nazism. 20/

I think there are no “good” or “bad” Russians. The distinction is meaningless. There are however sheepishly obedient Russians and zealous z-supporters, averaging out into a regular Russian Nazi. 21/

Germany was zombified by Nazi propaganda for 12 years. The Russians were on their path to Nazism for decades if not centuries. There are no easy fixes. There will be no protests. Changes in the Russian government would solve nothing. The road ahead will be long and difficult. 22/

However Nazi Germany was defeated. So too will be the current version of the Russian empire. Their Nazi worldviews will have to be shattered. The sooner the world realizes it is everyone’s problem, the better.

Ukraine will win as they have no other choice. 23/23

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574051110654189569.html

Excellent thoughts on the fundamental nature of Nazism. Which is enjoying its perennial rebirth around the world. Defined as you have, it can never be eradicated, only unequivocally opposed and defeated. For a time. What you describe, the hyper idealization of one’s ethnicity and history uber all others - combined with might makes right, is unfortunately embedded to one extent or another in humans across the world. Most people reject this tendency in themselves as they mature, and reject it for their country. Except in sports! But it never goes completely away. Something too about the evolutionary value of group solidarity for survival, “us against them” survival mechanisms, all gone amok. Social stresses aggravate it and lead to the emergence of torchlight parades and chants of you will not replace us, as in Charlottesville USA. And like-minded groups worldwide seeing Russia as the largest white supremacist nation in the world.

 

So we see the parallels to the rise of Nazism in the 1930’s, the invasion of neighbors, the concentration camps mentality, the genocidal rants, the disdain for life. Details of course differ. Histories and individuals differ. But they lead too often to the same dark places.

For me, this is why appeasement of this streak of human nature in whatever form is among the greatest dangers civilization faces. Abandon all hope of changing the past. But we must find ways to put this current eruption back in its cage. Until next time.

[Haiduk]

SBU special force "Alfa" hit two tanks in Kherson oblast with drones - one likely T-90M with Switchbalde (result unknown), other T-72 series tank hit with RKG-1600 HEAT bomb from R18 octocopter

 

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Because they aren't aggressive enough and don't invest as much in their armed forces as the US would like?

I think you are really reaching there.....

[FancyCat]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, I get that you're upset with German policy.  Many, including the person you responded to, are also upset with it.  But let's try and keep it civil and, in fact, maybe move on to something else.  Like what looks to be another spectacular collapse of Russian forces.

Steve

My anger is only with Scholz and those he represents in the cautious camp. I have posted very approving words regarding for example, the Greens political party in Germany, and noted the German public is behind sending tanks to Ukraine. But there is a lot of smoke around German refusal to ship aid to Ukraine, that cannot be explained by the many excuses given by Germany (or i suppose to be accurate, SPD and Scholz) so far. Worried about WW2 and its legacy does not mesh with high German public approval for tanks to Ukraine. Escalation, does not mesh with Russian actions on NATO's fronts. unified response, does not mesh with the words of the U.S Embassy in Berlin. The Dingo mrap, the tweet notes the turnaround in the decision to send them, occurred in a week. As we all know, the Dingo is just a oversized armored car, hardly any logistical issues that could be explained for IFV or MBT shipments. But Germany first refused, stating the inane excuse that it needed to defend the Eastern flank with mraps o.O.

I think everyone in this forum can understand why that does not smell right. 

The German admiral, you can see in the tweet him stating what he said. 

Chancellor Schröder worked for Russian oil giant Gazprom in several high profile roles. 

Butschi did not go into detail about what is rumors so I cannot respond otherwise but we have clear indications Germany is dragging its feet on Ukraine despite even majority domestic approval for otherwise, yet they persist in being slow and indecisive, earning it weakening reputation in Europe. I want a strong Germany to defend Europe, but at this point, it would be silly to not ask if Germany is just afraid of its own shadow, or hedging its bets? 

perfect timing too, the pipelines getting cut, Putin's mafia state is making it clear that if Germany tries to assist Ukraine or raise its assistance, there will be no more NS1 or NS2, now does Germany fold, or does Germany do what's right? Or does Germany keep saying things like "Russia is engaged in a imperialist war" and being shocked at Ukrainian civilians being killed, and then stubbornly denying Ukraine what it needs to liberate her people? 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Grigb

Update your map again. Russians recognized UKR troops reacaptured Katerynivka in second time and seized Kolodiazi 

 

Thank you. Katerinovka is small village next to Nove, so it is not very important. But Kolodyazi is very interesting - 4 km to important crossroad and Stavki settlement. Once it is captured Lyman is sealed from the North direction. 

Also, it is 4 km from Yampolivka that is on the last road available to RU in Lyman area.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

perfect timing too, the pipelines getting cut, Putin's mafia state is making it clear that if Germany tries to assist Ukraine or raise its assistance, there will be no more NS1 or NS2, now does Germany fold, or does Germany do what's right? 

Like I said earlier, this wasn't about NS 1 or 2, but about presenting a threat to the other pipelines that are actually important now.

 

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, that lies most of all in the hands of 'Easterners' themselves with both Warsaw and Budapest causing most of the problems for the EU, not only with regard to democracy

uuuuhh c'mon dude.  Italy elections, Le Pen in France?  Ring a bell?

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think you are really reaching there.....

Lol I first read '[...]invade as much[...]' instead of 'invest' 
 

[Lethaface]

[Tenses]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

uuuuhh c'mon dude.  Italy elections, Le Pen in France?  Ring a bell?

This. It is a problem for the whole Europe and will blow it up if not stopped. And stopping it means giving a hand to your neighbor even if he acts strange and not in line with others. This breaks the chain reaction of distrust and builds mutual understanding.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

uuuuhh c'mon dude.  Italy elections, Le Pen in France?  Ring a bell?

Democracy. The will of the people. Elections. Ring a bell, dude?

[FancyCat]

Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

Like I said earlier, this wasn't about NS 1 or 2, but about presenting a threat to the other pipelines that are actually important now.

 

Messages can have multiple meanings, the fact that only one NS2 pipeline remains with both NS1 gone, when NS2 was was shut down as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine, well.....