How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

 

"Germany" isn't making anything here, it is our defence secretary. Lambrecht is absolutely the wrong person for the job, no one in his right mind will argue against that (she didn't even want the job). Now really, which politician doesn't do grand statements which he/she afterwards can't fulfill? "I will build a wall and Mexiko is going to pay for it."... "We send the EU 350 mln pounds a week. Let's fund our NHS with it"... just to name two.

 

The pro-Russian and anti-Europe course of that particular person has played an important role in the growing aggression of Putin and perhaps even in the German attempt to appease Russia.

Before Biden appeared few Europeans considered the US an ally anymore. So blame Germany/ Europe all you like, people, but the US is most to blame for the war in Ukraine.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It would give the US the ability to put more pressure on NATO and the EU. We all know that it's about power, not about being palls. 

It could be the other way around, Western Europe could get CEE on it's side against the US within NATO framework, surely it has more to offer than the Americans?

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Huba said:

It could be the other way around, Western Europe could get CEE on it's side against the US within NATO framework, surely it has more to offer than the Americans?

Well, not military and that's what counts most for the time being.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Correct.   Countries don't have friends, they have shared interests.    People in this forum is forgetting that little fundamental reality...

we aren't forgetting that.  The originating statement is still nonsensical.

Edited September 27, 2022 by sburke

[Butschi]

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Butschi did not go into detail about what is rumors so I cannot respond

Quote

We have rumors that the main reason why no IFVs or MBTs is due to German reluctance, and therefore in order not pierce the alliance unity, all countries adopt the same stance. As already stated, its rumored that several European countries have indicated willingness to give the Leopard to Ukraine, but Germany is shooting down the export. 

We have rumors abounding from the German military industrial sector of a ability to fulfill contracts, but the government is slow walking or ignoring their offers. 

Just to answer your question. I'll leave it at that.

[FancyCat]

Just now, Butschi said:

Would you rather have the government stick to what it once said and never deliver anything or isn't it better the "cave" and reconsider?

That's terribly generous of her . It was, of course, always up to each individual country to decide. And if that's true than each individual country can decide against it. Which, by the way, ever individual country did with domestic development and production did. I didn't argue Germany was not allowed to do it, just that other countries (who were free to decide themselves) so far denied tanks to Ukraine, too.

And he was suspended for it, wasn't he?

Indeed, see what I wrote about IFVs in all the previous posts and my answer to that quote above.

 

Yes. However, the industry doesn't get to decide what to do in Germany, it is our democratically elected government. And that is a good thing, whether I like my government or not.

"Germany" isn't making anything here, it is our defence secretary. Lambrecht is absolutely the wrong person for the job, no one in his right mind will argue against that (she didn't even want the job). Now really, which politician doesn't do grand statements which he/she afterwards can't fulfill? "I will build a wall and Mexiko is going to pay for it."... "We send the EU 350 mln pounds a week. Let's fund our NHS with it"... just to name two.

I don't know what you are trying to say here, really. So a Museum which had "Russian" in its name changed that after the war started. Would you rather it had not?

So, can we now please stop these useless accusations? I could rant all day about the sins and failings of other countries, starting with the USA. We can certainly discuss all that - I do like a good discussion and without contrary opinions it is boring - but than I ask we do it a) in a civilised way and b) in way that shows a minimum of self-critical attitude.

Germany has export control on Leopards so…..we have the British Challenger, French Leclerc, and American M1, that’s it for Western MBTs. Both the Challenger and Leclerc have probably less than 200 in active service with no European state other than the original makers using them. 

In comparison, Greece has 500 Leopard 1s, a ring exchange for Leopard 2s would actually be applauded. Leopard 2, if you recall the proposal by Huba, a scheme where every European state gives a few tanks would amount to a lot, enough for a unit in Ukraine. M1, again, relies on American logistical prowess to operate, the Leopard is the only suitable tank, and the only widely used European tank, and we have rumors of Germany denying the export of the Leopard to Ukraine by other countries.

Germany acting like it is going alone, makes no sense cause literally no European state can give a Leopard tank to Ukraine without German approval.

[Lethaface]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Not that there was much of a question:

 

That's part one solved, wonder whether we'll get any 'actionable' evidence as to who was behind it any time soon. Although the usual suspect is quite obvious.

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Germany has export control on Leopards so…..we have the British Challenger, French Leclerc, and American M1, that’s it for Western MBTs. Both the Challenger and Leclerc have probably less than 200 in active service with no European state other than the original makers using them. 

In comparison, Greece has 500 Leopard 1s, a ring exchange for Leopard 2s would actually be applauded. Leopard 2, if you recall the proposal by Huba, a scheme where every European state gives a few tanks would amount to a lot, enough for a unit in Ukraine. M1, again, relies on American logistical prowess to operate, the Leopard is the only suitable tank, and the only widely used European tank, and we have rumors of Germany denying the export of the Leopard to Ukraine by other countries.

Germany acting like it is going alone, makes no sense cause literally no European state can give a Leopard tank to Ukraine without German approval.

*sigh*

And did I contradict you on this? I merely said that no other country (there also the Swedes, btw) has so far stepped forward and sent western MBTs. Without having to justify its position every other day. Double standards, you see? That's it. It was never about anything else. Now, can we move on?

 

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Before Biden appeared few Europeans considered the US an ally anymore. So blame Germany/ Europe all you like, people, but the US is most to blame for the war in Ukraine.

Oh ya, how dare the U.S poke the scary Russian bear so it tries to kill Ukraine. Thanks for ignoring Russian agency, Putin going on multiple genocidal rants about Ukraine, and Ukraine trying to chart a course where it does not become a puppet state of Russia.

 

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Just to answer your question. I'll leave it at that.

BLID reported that German military industry was ready to export to Ukraine. I already pointed out to you that pretending like Germany only controls the export of only her tanks is false, she controls the export of nearly every European state, the export of the only tank considered within widespread usage in NATO. Germany’s opposition literally blocks the only realistic option for Ukraine. 

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Ukrainian Su-24 strike near front lines with high-drag dumb bombs (and a good reminder of how off CM is with dumb bomb employment):

 

NICE VIDEO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Worth the flight for sure!

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Not that I agree with Aragorn in this, but France wasn't particularly happy about that sub deal.

Oh yeah. The loudest complaints were coming from the French government official who led the team that snagged that deal out from under the Japanese consortium that originally held  the contract. Seriously.

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

BLID reported that German military industry was ready to export to Ukraine. I already pointed out to you that pretending like Germany only controls the export of only her tanks is false, she controls the export of nearly every European state, the export of the only tank considered within widespread usage in NATO. Germany’s opposition literally blocks the only realistic option for Ukraine. 

You asked want I meant by rumors, I gave you as answer. How you get from there to German exports is beyond me. I'm sorry, I try with all the patience and politeness I can muster. But a discussion where you ignore what I say and instead make something else out of it is pointless, I'm afraid. I'm truely sorry, I don't know what else to say.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Butschi

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

*sigh*

And did I contradict you on this? I merely said that no other country (there also the Swedes, btw) has so far stepped forward and sent western MBTs. Without having to justify its position every other day. Double standards, you see? That's it. It was never about anything else. Now, can we move on?

 

Sweden which uses the Leopard 2 based design for the Strv 122? Of which also, there are only 42 in service? 

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Sweden which uses the Leopard 2 based design for the Strv 122? Of which also, there are only 42 in service? 

That was obviously my main point to make and not just there for the sake of completeness. This is pointless. I'm sorry, I'll leave this part of the discussion before getting all upset where I asked everyone to calm down.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Butschi

[Grigb]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Likely this either beginnng, or just coincidence of the strike on HQ and some small tactical advance of AFU in that area, which gave Russians thoughts about new offensive direction

This is most likely. I am looking at the map and there is nowhere to advance. I feel instead UKR command waits for opportunity to cut Wagnerites advancing South of Bakhmut.  

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Sweden which uses the Leopard 2 based design for the Strv 122? Of which also, there are only 42 in service? 

CV9040? 

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It would give the US the ability to put more pressure on NATO and the EU. We all know that it's about power, not about being palls. 

NATO is hard enough to keep going in the same direction and the American economy is deeply intertwined with the continent’s economic health. You are smoking better crack than I have access to if you think that the US would want to risk what ability we have to keep Europe pointed sort of in a single direction (sometimes anyway) or those economic needs.

[Artkin]

If Germany doesn't brashly expand their military before the beginning of next year, there's a problem. Whether it's German politics or whatever. After seeing that German navy offer resignation (treason) clip a couple pages back it's easy to see how much influence Russia has in high ranking German positions.

Wild.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Artkin

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Oh yeah. The loudest complaints were coming from the French government official who led the team that snagged that deal out from under the Japanese consortium that originally held  the contract. Seriously.

Not that I know very much about it, that was during the bidding instead of after a contract had been signed and work supposedly started.

Anyway I have no doubt that France is not a bit more holy, but that's another issue ;-).

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

NATO is hard enough to keep going in the same direction and the American economy is deeply intertwined with the continent’s economic health. You are smoking better crack than I have access to if you think that the US would want to risk what ability we have to keep Europe pointed sort of in a single direction (sometimes anyway) or those economic needs.

It's much more complicated than that. But brave to admit you have a drugs problem.

[Letter from Prague]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Much of what you are proposing is the exact same thing back onto the Russian people - a collapse that erases their identity.  We can go around the trees on this but in the end, my opinion does not matter - what does matter, very much is reconstruction of Ukraine after at this wat that will run well into the hundreds of billions.  Now asking western liberal democracies to invest in a nation that is actively supporting and working towards a counter-cultural genocide - even of a nation as problematic as Russia - is a non-starter.

I know I'm bunch of pages late.

But I have a question: what would you call what happened with Germany and Japan after WW2. Those are both not perfect nations, but are far removed from their WW2 incarnations. Did cultural genocide happened there?

The way I read Kraze is he is not asking for cultural genocide. The point is not to make Russians stop speaking Russian, drink kvass, eat pelmeni, bathe in frozen rivers, write surprisingly good scifi books and be good at chess or whatever it is that defines them (and I'm sure this is much more diverse). The point is the imperial mindset.

And we do have examples in history that that can be somehow stripped away.(*)

Unless the imperial mindset really is what makes a Russian a Russian. Which I really hope it isn't, for all our sakes.

(*): although Japan has its issues (like anime) and as for Germany some of the kariwurst stuff is really getting out of hand

EDIT: nevermind, lol

Edited September 27, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[danfrodo]

49 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

intersting, no major sources are catching up to this

xx

Edited September 27, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You asked want I meant by rumors, I gave you as answer. How you get from there to German exports is beyond me. I'm sorry, I try with all the patience and politeness I can muster. But a discussion where you ignore what I say and instead make something else out of it is pointless, I'm afraid. I'm truely sorry, I don't know what else to say.

You asserted that it was unfair for Germany to get the blunt of the blame on arming Ukraine with a Western MBT, I have pointed out to you that it is well deserved. It is the best option for Ukraine, it is one of the most plentiful tanks in Europe, has a deep maintenance tail throughout NATO, uses less fuel and more range than the only other available western MBT the M1, and as a result of being the designer of the Leopard, Germany’s government can veto or allow the provision of the Leopard by any European state to Ukraine.

Sorry, but those are the facts. Germany made a really good tank, in service with many European countries, nearly cornering the market as a result, and now blocks the Leopard from going to Ukraine for some reason that I find extremely unreasonable, that the German public itself finds unreasonable. I am unsure how I am being unfair to Germany when it looks pretty clear they deserve the scorn. And yes, I’m referring to the German government.

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Maybe they were just standing near the edge of an undersea shelf and accidently fell off.

 

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, so funny that the energy prises will rise even more so that the poorer people can't afford heating any more. I'm laughing my *ss off.

Smoking while underground?

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

CV9040? 

IFV, I was only talking about tanks. 

yes, no need to continue the discussion further.