How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And with that... a generalized request for people to ease up on posts that are just an off-topic video.  I don't mind seeing them inline with on-topic posting, but the solo ones quickly snowball.  Definitely seen way too many of them today.

Posting congrats to Huba was not on-topic, but hey... it's the right thing to do   Though now that he's logged off and (VERY WISELY) handed his phone over to his soon-to-be-wife, we can case the congrats posts as well.  By the time he gets his phone back they'll be several dozen pages behind.  PM him good wishes if the mood strikes you.

Steve

I think Huba will discover that he handed over more than just his phone.

[panzermartin]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I wonder how long before the Saheed factory in Iran has a smoking related accident?

By the look of it though, the guidance package is the key bit (Chinese electronics?). Otherwise, it really seems to be a V1 level technology.

This looks and sounds like a flying Honda moto cub. But seems suicide drones like that don't need to be particularly sophisticated to be effective. 

[poesel]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

Somebody way wiser than me (and much more full of venom  ) said that DE foreign policy can be summarized as waiting for all the crises to be over and then selling cars (replace with tanks in the given example) to everyone involved. As I said, putting all the moral/ ethical/ geopolitical arguments aside, it's a helluva business opportunity to miss.

Yes, more or less true. The military industry is only a very small part of our economy. Overall, it doesn't matter much how many tanks we sell. Cars are much, much more important.

Since you will be reading that tomorrow - congrats and I hope you had a day to remember!

[Calamine Waffles]

First appearance of the BM Oplot-M in Ukraine since the war started. As far as I know, only three were built and are in Ukraine, so it is a true unicorn. Next to it is a T-64BM2, characterised by the ladder on its rear mudguard and slat armour around the engine, as well as I think another Oplot-M.

Together they are the most advanced Ukrainian-built tanks in service.
 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[womble]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Report that Russia's real mobilization target is 1.2 million, with the 300,000 being only the first installment.  I guess they're expecting a lot of casualties

Well they've already annonunced they're building 300000 extra Ladas to give to the bereaved families, so they are accounting for 100% losses from that first tranche...

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What this indicates is that the initial batch of mobilized men will be even less militarily useful than we speculated.  I think Combat Mission might need some training level lower than Conscript.  I'm not really kidding.

"Untrained"? Needs a -3 Leadership and worse-than-Poor Motivation as well. "Decrepit" for Fitness?

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So maybe a big part of US holding back these cards would is because there'd be  nothing left to use to escalate with.

There are a few stages below "nuke" and above the political and supply means you mentioned: (in no particular order of significance)

• elision of the BSF and or other surface assets (boomers are a no-go, it seems due to Russia's rules on nuke use);
• no-fly-zone (applicable to RU Air Force only) over Ukraine;
• cruise missiles deleting identified RU AD, arty and logistical assets in Ukraine;
• escalated and transitory sanctions (which would be widely backed by currently inactive players if Putin tosses a nuke).

 

 

[hcrof]

On 8/25/2022 at 1:09 AM, hcrof said:

Ok, here is a more developed concept for a tank-like system for the modern battlefield. The observer/hunter/killer team. The purpose of the system is to punch through enemy defenses and exploit the rear, or it can be used defensively. 

Killer: as per the concept above. It remains behind cover at all times and destroys enemy vehicles and strongpoints with its gun-mortar and atgm at ranges 5-10km.

Hunter: a light tank with IR and visual sensors, as well as the ability to deploy a small drone for scouting. It is small and light, with a 3 man crew and front armour that can withstand 30mm fire. Its main armament is a quick firing 15-20mm cannon (think ciws), with a few starstreak missiles. Using its sensors it can detect enemy drones and shoot them down. It can suppress and destroy infantry and if it encounters a heavy vehicle it calls the killer vehicle which destroys it. If the enemy launches an atgm, the IR sensor will automatically detect the launch and the cannon will shoot the missile down. APS is the final line of defence. 

Observer: travels just behind the hunter. Another small vehicle which is basically just a drone carrier. Its job is to search every potential enemy position in advance so it can be destroyed by the killer vehicle or artillery. 

Combine that team with mechanised infantry to secure the terrain and clear out urban areas. 

In this way the team can push forward a dense ISR bubble while degrading that of the enemy. The gun-mortar provides prompt integrated fires that will destroy enemy vehicles while the hunters deal with infantry and atgm teams. The lightweight vehicles are fast and mobile with reduced logistical requirements.

 

 

Seems like the US army is looking at my hunter concept already!!

https://youtu.be/aD6YhuU0id0

[Offshoot]

On second thoughts, do you have a PPSh41?

 

[Hister]

Here we go. After IFV's we are sending Ukrainians heavily upgraded oldies but goldies tanks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/19/slovenia-is-giving-ukraine-some-very-old-tanks-but-age-can-be-deceiving/?sh=5871efa57b3f&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social

What would you guys say about our T-55S?

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Hister

[Calamine Waffles]

  

7 minutes ago, Hister said:

Here we go. After IFV's we are sending Ukrainians heavily upgraded oldies but goldies tanks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/19/slovenia-is-giving-ukraine-some-very-old-tanks-but-age-can-be-deceiving/?sh=5871efa57b3f&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social

What would you guys say about our T-55S?

 

I think it should be fine for infantry support and general tank duties, as long as it's not trying to go head-to-head against T-90Ms etc.

The biggest issue is now Ukraine will have to source 105 mm L7 ammunition, since it did not use any up until now, though I assume NATO should be able to supply its needs given how prolific the L7 tanks are.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Hister said:

What would you guys say about our T-55S?

You can defend a position like a mobile pillbox. You can't attack with it. If it can be spotted it is history. It can be targeted by any infantry unit; it can be penetrated, and the crew can be killed. So it must remain camouflaged. 

[Hister]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

If it can be spotted it is history. It can be targeted by any infantry unit; it can be penetrated, and the crew can be killed. So it must remain camouflaged.

Isn't this generally the case with all the tanks? Also please check the part in the article where its modernizations are listed because I think you might not have. 

[Calamine Waffles]

23 minutes ago, Hister said:

Isn't this generally the case with all the tanks? Also please check the part in the article where its modernizations are listed because I think you might not have. 

I think it might do quite well, it has hunter-killer capability with the stabilised commander's sight (something even Russian T-72B3s lack). Does it have thermal optics for the gunner? My assumption is it probably does not have CITV, but that's a very rare capability for both Russian and Ukrainian tanks anyway.

I don't know what kind of ERA the M-55S uses other than it's Israeli, so I do not know how effective it will be against kinetic penetrators. It should be sufficient against ATGMs and RPGs.

I'd assume it has upgraded radio and communication systems, not the piece of **** R-113 found on the original T-55.

All in all, like I said, it's probably fine for general tank duties. May not be competitive in head-to-head fights against T-72B3s, T-80BVMs, or T-90Ms, but that's really not what you should be aiming for anyway.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Hister said:

Isn't this generally the case with all the tanks?

I don't think so even a WW 2 Sherman the crew had a good chance it could survive a penetration. According the Chieftain 1500 were KIA from Normandy till VE Day. That's what we see every day the T72 any NATO unit can target it and upon penetration the crew just vaporizes. Let alone a T 55 with a 105mm L7 cannon. A tank is obsolete in other words. The APS and Smoke devices on NATO tank offer a good deal of protection. I believe it is all highly classified. Like Battlefront stated with their formula, you can't have a cheap and quick system it won't have the quality required. Abrams not cheap, as a result you have a quick quality system to face the enemy. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by chuckdyke

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

Our maps are better than their maps....

Did they hire John Madden to do their mapwork, or what?

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I wonder how long before the Saheed factory in Iran has a smoking related accident?

By the look of it though, the guidance package is the key bit (Chinese electronics?). Otherwise, it really seems to be a V1 level technology.

The bang in Odessa, from a Russian cheerleader....

I assume they blurred most of the image because it did in fact hit something important.

Fine, pretty large column, but it could be anywhere, from any time. Hey, whatever gets you through the day....

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

It seems that due to the lack of weapons, the ru are betting on hand-to-hand combat

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

 

I remember someone on this forum said that bayonets are useless in modern combat

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The primary point this guy is making is that the bulk of the population just wants to be left alone.  As long as they are left alone, they won't actively oppose the war (or Putin for that matter). 

I think the majority of the population in any country just wants to be left alone and focus on the challenges of their own lives. It's a minority of people who want to keep up with politics and go out and actively demonstrate and protest and write angry letters to newspapers etc.

The difference in Russia is that the politically engaged part of the population has been systematically suppressed over decades, with most of the opposition leaders in exile or in jail.

Also, there is a lot of disillusionment and cynicism in post-Soviet countries in general. Everything they believed in during the Cold War failed, and the Western ideologies of market capitalism and democracy also showed themselves to be disappointing.

[Bulletpoint]

Putin's plan A was that Ukraine would collapse immediately.

Plan B was that the UKR army would be defeated relatively fast.

Plan C was to concentrate all forces on taking eastern Ukraine.

Plan D was  to concentrate all forces on taking only the two "republics"

Plan E is now to not lose more of the land already captured. Annexation and conscription are the tools Putin hopes will be able to achieve this.

 

But I think we all expect this to fail, so what's Plan F?

 

With annexation, I don't see how he can really make any serious peace negotiations, giving up Crimea or the "republics". Declaring something part of Russia and then giving it away doesn't seem politically feasible.

I only really see two options. Either Putin just watches as his armies are routed out of Ukraine. Not politically feasible either. Or he makes a serious and specified ultimatum, saying if Ukraine does not withdraw to a certain line, Russia will employ a limited number of nuclear weapons against military targets inside Ukraine.

Tactical nuclear weapons might have a limited miltary use in modern war, but they do have political weight. Faced with this kind of ultimatum, Ukraine and NATO would have a real headache about how to respond.

Ukraine might be gung-ho, but they are still dependent on aid from their Western allies. Europe and USA could let Zelensky know that he had to back down. The war would end with an unease armistice, not a peace settlement, and Putin would get his off ramp.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

I remember someone on this forum said that bayonets are useless in modern combat

https://sadefensejournal.com/spirit-of-the-bayonet-bayonet-charge-in-basra

[Taranis]

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

best news ever!  Dictator gonna use his magic will power to un-F something that is totally F-ed.  If anyone can do this, he can.  This will certainly help when the history books are written about "most obvious, avoidable fiasco in military history"

[Aragorn2002]

According to ISW "Russian opposition outlets and Telegram channels leaked information suggesting that the Kremlin aims to complete this partial mobilization by November 10 and that the Kremlin is seeking to mobilize 1.2 million men instead of the publicly announced 300,000."

As Georg von Frundsberg use to say;  Viel Feind, viel Ehre. (more enemies, more honour) Hopefully that also goes for the brave Ukrainian armed forces.

[chuckdyke]

Interesting episode.

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Putin's plan A was that Ukraine would collapse immediately.

Plan B was that the UKR army would be defeated relatively fast.

Plan C was to concentrate all forces on taking eastern Ukraine.

Plan D was  to concentrate all forces on taking only the two "republics"

Plan E is now to not lose more of the land already captured. Annexation and conscription are the tools Putin hopes will be able to achieve this.

 

But I think we all expect this to fail, so what's Plan F?

 

With annexation, I don't see how he can really make any serious peace negotiations, giving up Crimea or the "republics". Declaring something part of Russia and then giving it away doesn't seem politically feasible.

I only really see two options. Either Putin just watches as his armies are routed out of Ukraine. Not politically feasible either. Or he makes a serious and specified ultimatum, saying if Ukraine does not withdraw to a certain line, Russia will employ a limited number of nuclear weapons against military targets inside Ukraine.

Tactical nuclear weapons might have a limited miltary use in modern war, but they do have political weight. Faced with this kind of ultimatum, Ukraine and NATO would have a real headache about how to respond.

Ukraine might be gung-ho, but they are still dependent on aid from their Western allies. Europe and USA could let Zelensky know that he had to back down. The war would end with an unease armistice, not a peace settlement, and Putin would get his off ramp.

And then enjoy watching putin's nuclear ultimatum about Baltic states in 5 years.

And Chinese nuclear ultimatum about Taiwan in 2023.

And DPRK nuclear ultimatum about South Korea.

 

And the end of NATO.

 

If nukes make any country a fair game and excuse genocides - countries having them can occupy any non-nuclear neighbor without any consequences. Everybody thus will have to get nukes faster than their neighbour to survive. And eventually they will start going off everywhere.

Or a bunch can actually man up and own it for trying to be friends with russian empire in 1991.

Edited September 24, 2022 by kraze