How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

There was no such vote. The motion of the conservative party was relegated to the foreign affairs commitee. Most likely nothing will happen with regards to the motion.

Der Bundestag hat am Donnerstag, 22. September 2022, einen Antrag der Unionsfraktion mit dem Titel „Frieden und Freiheit in Europa verteidigen – Ukraine jetzt entschlossen mit schweren Waffen unterstützen“ (20/3490) beraten. Im Anschluss an die Debatte wurde der Antrag zur weiteren Beratung in den federführenden Auswärtigen Ausschuss überwiesen.

Google translation: On Thursday, September 22, 2022, the Bundestag discussed a motion by the Union parliamentary group entitled “Defend peace and freedom in Europe – now resolutely support Ukraine with heavy weapons” (20/3490). Following the debate, the motion was referred to the lead foreign affairs committee for further consultation.

Source: Deutscher Bundestag - Debatte zur Lieferung schwerer Waffen in die Ukraine

Anyone studying the Bundeswehr know that Germany has nothing left to give. Even now vehicles and other equipment has to be move from one unit to the other in order to keep the training programs running.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_MonkeyKing]

33 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

There was no such vote. The motion of the conservative party was relegated to the foreign affairs commitee. Most likely nothing will happen with regards to the motion.

Der Bundestag hat am Donnerstag, 22. September 2022, einen Antrag der Unionsfraktion mit dem Titel „Frieden und Freiheit in Europa verteidigen – Ukraine jetzt entschlossen mit schweren Waffen unterstützen“ (20/3490) beraten. Im Anschluss an die Debatte wurde der Antrag zur weiteren Beratung in den federführenden Auswärtigen Ausschuss überwiesen.

Google translation: On Thursday, September 22, 2022, the Bundestag discussed a motion by the Union parliamentary group entitled “Defend peace and freedom in Europe – now resolutely support Ukraine with heavy weapons” (20/3490). Following the debate, the motion was referred to the lead foreign affairs committee for further consultation.

Source: Deutscher Bundestag - Debatte zur Lieferung schwerer Waffen in die Ukraine

Opposition motions rarely advance. 

Still interesting indication that the subject is still not set in stone.

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Anyone studying the Bundeswehr know that Germany has nothing left to give. Even now vehicles and other equipment has to be move from one unit to the other in order to keep the training programs running.

If the majority of EU countries all give a portion of their Leopard 2 fleet Ukraine could get a significant amount. +100 easily.

Even Germany has enough to chip in. Especially German defense industry. At least in logistical and maintenance portion of the "deal". 

And to be realistic Germany can afford to give away even 75% of their MBTs. Who exactly would be attacking Germany? The tanks would go towards reducing the only military threat mainland Europe has, Russia. The Russian threat will be reduced close to zero for years to come. Germany has time to rebuild (or buy Abrams).

EDIT: I think even us Finns could give half(100pcs) of our Leopards. Exactly because of the reduced threat from Russia and now the added security of NATO.

Edited September 23, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[womble]

19 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

I mean we are just after an orgy of celebration of a feudal monarchy but yeah, whatever. And the arrest of protestors, super democratic. Holding up a blank piece of paper being a criminal offence. Nice.

New head of state and new prime minister in the past two weeks were selected by somewhat less than democratic means.

Current government trying to withdraw from the European Convention of Human Rights because it makes it a bit inconvenient for them to ship vulnerable people off to Rwanda.

One of the two houses of parliament being literally a House of Lords. Super democratic.

Don't get me wrong, the UK is no Russia. And I am grateful for all the help the UK is giving Ukraine. But definitely has work to do (as do most countries in fairness). 

Well done. Misunderstandinatin' 9/10. Nice work.

[DesertFox]

27 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Anyone studying the Bundeswehr know that Germany has nothing left to give. Even now vehicles and other equipment has to be move from one unit to the other in order to keep the training programs running.

We need to strictly seperate two topics here. Possible deliveries by Bundeswehr and possible deliveries by the industry. The present discussion is not about what the Bundeswehr has or has not available. Further canibalisation of the Bundeswehr is out of the question. It is about what the industry is able to deliver (non property of the Bundeswehr). By example since MARCH! Rheinmetall is able to deliver both tanks (Leo1A5) and APCs (Marder). Rheinmetall also has formally requested to be given export permission for that, but the chancellor refuses to do so.

Rheinmetall bietet 100 Marder: Union lässt Bundestag im Panzerstreit abstimmen - n-tv.de

Original motion here:

2003490.pdf (bundestag.de)

Edited September 23, 2022 by DesertFox
added motion 20/3490

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

We need to strictly seperate two topics here. Possible deliveries by Bundeswehr and possible deliveries by the industry. The present discussion is not about what the Bundeswehr has or has not available. Further canibalisation of the Bundeswehr is out of the question. It is about what the industry is able to deliver (non property of the Bundeswehr). By example since MARCH! Rheinmetall is able to deliver both tanks (Leo1A5) and APCs (Marder). Rheinmetall also has formally requested to be given export permission for that, but the chancellor refuses to do so.

Rheinmetall bietet 100 Marder: Union lässt Bundestag im Panzerstreit abstimmen - n-tv.de

and also future sales. Ukraine already has 100 Pzh2000 on order for the coming years.

[Huba]

The RU rhetoric moved towards a nuclear ultimatum more and more. IMO they will try to draw the line at UA moving into the newly annexed territories. I really hope US has this figured out...

[FancyCat]

49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I concurrence with this, very much.  I absolute think Ukraine is entitled to regain its 1991 borders, that is recognized by the international community and my own government.

But should they?

I am not an expert on governments or politics with all the permutations and combinations that distribution of power can play out in a society.  I am an expert on defence and security, and in my business both Donbas and Crimea are starting to look like poison pills.

Now before everyone gets excited, hear me out.  We have gone round and round on the issue of what democracy would look like in this regions, let alone re-integration challenges back into Ukraine.  I am sure smarter and better educated people than me would figure it out, after what looks like a painful journey.  However from a security point of view:

- We have around 50% percent of the populations (pre-war) in these regions who are or have  been “pro-Russian”.  In Crimea that number appears to be closer to 68 percent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimeahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea

-  I think we can all agree that complete removal of Russian influence in these regions is the end goal; however, we should also be pragmatic in that will be very difficult.  It is highly likely that Russia will continue to do what it did before this war, subvert-meddle and support resistance groups.

- We have an unsolvable riddle on enfranchisements of these groups.  In fact some members here don’t even feel that people who fought in this war on the other side can be re-integrated back into Ukraine.  Others have outlined how a referendum is impossible due to 1) Russian gerrymandering thru war crimes, which is true and 2) these regions lack legitimacy based on previous actions.  Either way returning large proportions of regional population back into Ukraine with full democratic freedoms is not going to be easy.

With those three factors, and there are more - these regions are the setup for a security nightmare.  First, in Crimea there will likely be a humanitarian crisis when the UA re-takes the region as people flee across a single bridge - that can and will blow up all over the internet.  Second, as some point out, these regions will be as Germany was in 1945 - except now they all have cellphones - the odds of information resistance and warfare in these regions is almost a certainty.  Third, you have all the conditions for an insurgency backed by Russia in both these regions.

All risks during what is supposed to be a western backed reconstruction phase.  The risks to Ukraine losing the strategic narrative are extremely high, in fact a weakened Russia will go out of its way to make it happen.  Ukraine will risk taking on a decades-long nearly unsolvable ethnic based security riddle.

Maximalist is a very good word here, Steve.  These goals are just and Ukraine is entitled to them, no argument but the risks are very high that Ukraine will risk it’s strategic high ground when it needs it most if they pursue these ends.

In the end this will be a Ukrainian decision, it is their right and they have earned it.  My advice is that they think long and hard before they wade into this, it has broken more powerful nations.

There are pro-Ukrainian Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians. As for Crimea, there will be a crisis but I'm not sure it would be a risk to Ukraine's PR. As we have seen, Ukraine holds the majority of sympathy, especially in the West who will be mainly providing funds. Germany is a bad example, resistance collapsed after the surrender. I'm sure there will be some sort of insurgency, but clampdown of the border should keep it down. Is this a ethnic war? More a imperial/colonialist war i think. 

[Lethaface]

12 hours ago, sburke said:

This one I am gonna have to say no way on.  Armed insurrection against their own government eliminates their right to expect the same freedoms enjoyed by other Ukrainian citizens.  They have crossed the line to sedition and criminal acts. How the Ukrainian gov't deals with this is their decision but I don't see an argument that these folks can just lay down their arms and immediately have all the same rights as the people who paid such an awful price for this war.

This is a tricky subject. I agree that taking up arms against your own government shouldn't remain without consequences. 

However, which right to strip? The right of a fair trial? The right to live somewhere, work, etc?

Which rights would you want to strip? Voting? That would be fair I guess, although in many countries convicted felons are already stripped of voting rights so that might already come with the conviction of (planned) armed violence against the state / collaboration with the enemy.

Anyway I guess my point is that it is easy to say but much more complex to put into practice, at least if you are willing to follow the rule of law which is imo important in such endeavors. 
Often laws don't have special categories for 'armed insurgents'; they are just prosecuted according to the law and they'll serve their punishment (be it capital). 

Making them 'lawless' and or outlawing them so that anyone could shoot them onsite without consequences isn't a good solution imo (not that I think that's what you are advocating). 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Lethaface

[chuckdyke]

42 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Anyone studying the Bundeswehr know that Germany has nothing left to give. Even now vehicles and other equipment has to be move from one unit to the other in order to keep the training programs running.

Say out of 2000 Leo2's they somehow can spare 500. Then comes the maintenance they need to be maintained in Poland. That means right across the Ukraine. They can outfit workshops in the Ukraine with trained personnel.? Then security one tanker who thinks a $1 Million is lucrative to drive over to the enemy. I don't blame the Germans one bit. Panzerhaubitze which operate from 50 km away are much more secure. I don't see Challengers and Abrams either.

[LongLeftFlank]

Apologies if this outstanding (and highly CM relevant!) thread has been posted before. This thread adds pages so quickly now, it's hard to keep up. (And some  keeps posting OT videos).  This has got my mapmaking / scenario designing fingers itching.... if only I had time!

Option 2: After a breakthrough in the Barvinok - Bohorodychne area, the main group should break through in a straight line towards Dar'ivka.

 

There are two difficulties here:

1. the AFU prefers to advance on roads, and there are fields here. But as long as it's dry, this shouldn't be an obstacle. There are about 24 km to cover, it can be done in a day. There is bocage (mixed woodland and pasture) in the area, which will help with concealment.

2. The second problem is possible Russian Army strongholds in settlements and villages that would have to be bypassed. This means that forces must be allocated to attack them.

The route avoids large population centres. The Russians usually defend them, neglecting the smaller ones.....

....in both cases the key will be a breakthrough of the first line of Russian defence, but I think the AFU can pull it off. They have already done it, only they did not develop the offensive further. Now they should concentrate on one powerful strike and then everything will work out. Especially since there is time to move important units, such as reconnaissance or assault units from Izyum.

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Say out of 2000 Leo2's they somehow can spare 500. Then comes the maintenance they need to be maintained in Poland. That means right across the Ukraine. They can outfit workshops in the Ukraine with trained personnel.? Then security one tanker who thinks a $1 Million is lucrative to drive over to the enemy. I don't blame the Germans one bit. Panzerhaubitze which operate from 50 km away are much more secure. I don't see Challengers and Abrams either.

Germany doesn't even have 500 Leo2 in service.

[Ts4EVER]

I'm sure if there was a guaranteed long term contract, the German military industrial complex would be all too happy to produce as many tanks as they could ever use....

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Germany doesn't even have 500 Leo2 in service.

Germany has fielded about 2,125 Leopard 2 main battle tanks in various versions, Leopard 2 - Wikipedia If you're right what is everybody complaining about. 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Just to clarify, in case anyone gets confused, the clock is not turned back to 1991. It is turned back to January 2014. I'm sure you understand "by 1991 borders" we didn't mean some far away lines from a long time ago, we don't mean rolling back 31 years of changes. It is 8 years of changes. 

I do. It is still a line on a map, be it 8 or 31 years old. It is no less abstract.

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

And again, the initial rebellion in the Donbas was going to end had Russia not invaded and reinforced their "little green men".

So, you measure the legitimacy of a secession by its military success? That is a slippery slope. If Taiwan would get crushed by China and survives only with US help, by your own definition that would legitimize a Chinese invasion. Now, let's not get into this discussion, I just make this point to stress my earlier statement about double standards.

I said I just don't know enough about the situation in the Donbas or on Crimea. Again, I make no statement about whether or not there is legitimacy to the secession. My feeling is, there isn't enough of it but there are people here who know much better, maybe you are one of them. But for the sake of the argument: If there is legitimacy to the secession then things are more complicated than retaking lost territory. In that case my point about discouraging Russia or any other invader wouldn't fully apply because then it wouldn't just be about an invasion but also about crushing a... yeah, how you call is usually ehat legitimacy you grant it... secession, rebellion, insurgency, fight for freedom - a matter of perspective.

Btw don't get me wrong this is not about what happened since February. Nothing justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is merely about whether I personally support retaking every bit of territory lost since 2014. I gave some of the reasons why I don't do so unrestrictedly and anyway it is probably all very academic.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Germany has fielded about 2,125 Leopard 2 main battle tanks in various versions, Leopard 2 - Wikipedia If you're right what is everybody complaining about. 

There's about 2K across various UE armies. The only way to do it is if everybody chips in with a battalion or so. But somebody has to take a lead on this, and this somebody is DE, as they are the ones holding the veto right over everyone else's actions.

Also, we have some official confirmation of recent UA gains in the east:

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I'm sure if there was a guaranteed long term contract, the German military industrial complex would be all too happy to produce as many tanks as they could ever use....

Security I understand the APS can deal with the likes of the Javelin. Would the Russian love to get their hands on it. The chips of all places are made in the Netherlands which are teamed up with Taiwan. We all know why China is putting the pressure on. Leo2 in the Ukraine won't be the same as for the Bundeswehr. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Germany doesn't even have 500 Leo2 in service.

At present they have 328 in service.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

At present they have 328 in service.

Enough for one decent engagement. 

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Germany has fielded about 2,125 Leopard 2 main battle tanks in various versions, Leopard 2 - Wikipedia If you're right what is everybody complaining about. 

That number applies to Cold War times. Nowadays there are only about 300 in service.

Edit: The Bundeswehr has its hands full fielding a heavy brigade these days. Germany is not just whining.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Butschi

[chuckdyke]

Just now, Butschi said:

That number applies to Cold War times. Nowadays there are only about 300 in service.

Ok I agree they need the 300 for their own army. Argument for me is over. Fuel and transport is the priority sympathize with the Ukraine they need superior armaments. I am afraid with hypermodern weapons you need NATO boots on the ground. 

[keas66]

1 hour ago, RandomCommenter said:

I mean we are just after an orgy of celebration of a feudal monarchy but yeah, whatever. And the arrest of protestors, super democratic. Holding up a blank piece of paper being a criminal offence. Nice.

New head of state and new prime minister in the past two weeks were selected by somewhat less than democratic means.

Current government trying to withdraw from the European Convention of Human Rights because it makes it a bit inconvenient for them to ship vulnerable people off to Rwanda.

One of the two houses of parliament being literally a House of Lords. Super democratic.

Don't get me wrong, the UK is no Russia. And I am grateful for all the help the UK is giving Ukraine. But definitely has work to do (as do most countries in fairness). 

 

You seem to have some misunderstandings as to how Elected Governments in the West work ?

The Monarchy has no power at all - its there for the Tourists  . The Prime Minister is always elected by members of his/her own party - works the same in all English based Parliamentary systems around the planet - You get to elect the party - not decide who is in  cabinet . The House of Lords is really  only a historical anomaly in the UK - and we commonwealth citizens generally  like our History . This particular part of the British system has not really been copied  over to  AUS/NZ/CAN  and elsewhere  - but we do get our Honors lists - and people like them .

Governments once elected are free to pursue whatever policies they like - but they do need to keep the electorates happy to some degree - since they are up for re-election again 3-4-5 years  . A Elected Government which chooses to follow unpopular policies won't be in Government for long .

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by keas66

[acrashb]

6 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Data suggests otherwise ...

Democracy Data Explorer - Our World in Data

 

Also try Explore the Map | Freedom House

Suggesting that the UK is a "semi democracy" is risible.  In many ways, it's more democratic, whatever that means, than Canada, even though they have the same score in the Democracy Data explorer.  I say this because Canada's governance is highly concentrated in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), reducing the role of Ministers and Members of Parliament.



 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

You Seem to have some misunderstandings as to how Elected Governments in the West work ?

40 years ago on November 11, 1975 Gough Whitlam’s Labor government was dismissed from office by the Queen’s representative the Governor General. At a stroke, the carefully nurtured image of the Crown’s ‘impartiality’ was blown away and the naked class bias of the parliamentary system was exposed. On the end of the day they have the power.

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

That number applies to Cold War times. Nowadays there are only about 300 in service.

Edit: The Bundeswehr has its hands full fielding a heavy brigade these days. Germany is not just whining.

One kind of imagines the ZSU is now getting to the point of being better / more efficient at operating a in-field army than most of the Nato members ... Hard experience  knocks out a lot of the  inefficiencies one imagines .

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Ok I agree they need the 300 for their own army.

I'm not saying Ukraine couldn't put them to better use. But I understand that, from the perspective of, say, a general, tasked with keeping the army ready to defend the country (it's not his job to decide whether that's necessary or not) there is not much left to give away.