How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You say that like they ever had one. When we finally get some real stats, years from now, I will bet you a case of good beer the Russian medical performance is not much better than the Union army in the U.S. Civil War. It wouldn't shock me if it was worse. These god cursed mobiks are going to die from things that result in a weeks light duty in a NATO army. Never mind living through a real wound. I am expecting real disease outbreaks too. We need to double check if Ukraine needs any support with vaccines. 

"XXI century war, fought with XX century weapons and tactics, and with XIX century medical support." Quote originally pertained to Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict I believe, but seems quite applicable.

[Cederic]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

N Ireland is a good example.  It is occupied Irish territory.

No, it is not. Do not go there.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seems pretty clear to me that this mobilization is NOT what was stated in yesterday's announcement.  This is rushed, it is desperate, it is seemingly random.  However, that is just how it appears from an outsider standpoint.  I think what we're seeing is very rationale and has been fairly well planned out (well, by Russian standards).  This plan is designed to accommodate the political situation that Putin has tried so hard to avoid.

A mobilization blitzkrieg, as we are seeing now, reduces the chances that protest and counter measures by the populace.  The plan, as it appears to be playing out, is to grab as many men as possible, as quickly as possible, from the outlying areas before they can scatter and organize to avoid getting picked up.

This is bound to produce a much larger reaction to mobilization than the standard methodology, which likely means the situation at the front is even worse than we think it is.  I really don't think they have anybody to plug the lines in Luhansk.  Not even remotely.

Steve

 

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

"XXI century war, fought with XX century weapons and tactics, and with XIX century medical support." Quote originally pertained to Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict I believe, but seems quite applicable.

Anyone want to give odds these poor serfs, and they really might as well BE serfs, show up at the front in summer uniforms? just in time for some nice cold fall rains? Of course I am optimistically assuming they will have any uniforms at all...

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Geeze man, you forgot to mention Russia has no officers to lead this rabble.  Even if they filter them into existing units, the existing units are already short on officers.  They might function OK now simply because they are also short on basic soldiers.  Adding one and not the other is a recipe for disaster.

Not only does the lack of officers preclude these units from being employed in any militarily significant way, it also ensures large chunks of these guys are going to simply walk over to the Ukrainian side at the first opportunity.  This will happen exponentially as things go from bad to worse at the front.

To summarize... these guys aren't going to get trained, they won't receive decent equipment, and leadership will be minimal at best.

Cannon fodder without a real purpose.

Steve

I have never found officers that central to the process .  Worse, NCOs, which they never had a strong corps of to begin with.

I honestly do not have much sympathy for Russia left in me.  But those poor kids - yes kraze we know that they sat back and let this happen, but these ones are being dragged onto the battlefield - are going to die in droves come winter, if they make it that far.

[RandomCommenter]

22 minutes ago, poesel said:

Long enough until the gas/coal/electricity bills land in European mailboxes and people will riot on the streets, demanding to take the sanctions back.

That's IMHO the plan. I fail to see any other use. I also fail to see it succeeding.

Unfortunately the first crack is beginning to show in EU unity on the sanctions front. And I expect things can get worse if say Italy starts backsliding too.

From the Guardian

 

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban wants EU sanctions on Russia lifted by the end of the year, a pro-government daily newspaper said Thursday.

Orban, who has sought close ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin in recent years, has frequently railed against the sanctions which were imposed onto Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

According to Orban, the sanctions are more damaging to Europe than to Russia.

Magyar Nemzet reported that Orban urged members of his Fidesz party at a closed-door gathering late Wednesday to get the sanctions lifted.

“According to our information... Orban called on the members of the Fidesz faction to do their utmost to ensure that Europe lifts these sanctions by the end of the year at the latest,” the newspaper said.

The government said it confirmed the content of the article. It comes as Brussels looks to impose further sanctions on Russia.

Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said further sanctions would only “deepen the difficulties”.

“Europe is suffering more from the restrictions imposed in response to the war in Ukraine than Russia, and therefore the eighth package of sanctions should be forgotten,” he said at the UN General Assembly in New York earlier this week.

Hungary has been hit by record-high inflation. The country is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and there are fears for its energy supplies.

Orban’s ruling Fidesz party meanwhile announced it would soon launch a national public consultation on the issue of sanctions - a method previously used to denounce EU migration policy for instance.

It would aim to give Hungarians the chance to voice their opinion, Mate Kocsis, head of the party’s parliamentary group, told reporters.

“It is not normal that sanctions are only decided by the Brussels elite,” Kocsis said.

EU foreign ministers held an emergency meeting Wednesday to discuss the issue after Moscow mobilised reservists for its war in Ukraine.

A final decision needs to be made at a formal session.

 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Grossman said:

Taking stock on the mobilisation, those fleeing, the reaction in Russia. The end result?; exposure of Putin, his message, as an absolute scam as more Russians are exposed to the military, its shortcomings,  the unnecessary war, and the upcoming casualty rate.  The more Russians exposed to Putin's scam, the more dangerous they are to the regime. Expect an internal revolt in 2023.  

From whom? The widows and USSR flag waving babushkas against OMON agents and Putin thugs?

"Protests" look like what the green party does every weekend in my city, when its raining. https://i.imgur.com/T7OWiI6.mp4

I did not expect much but this is pathetic. More police cars burn in Europe when G7 leaders meet or when the french unions decide to improve their wages. Iranians are dying in the streets right now, Russians: "what can you do?" ...

7 months of war, 50k KIA, untold economic damage and a total destruction of any political reputation and goodwill. And a couple hundred chant on the street. Not to mention what damage and suffering they have caused, not like they care or else we would have seen "protests" before their own skin got in the game.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kraft

[billbindc]

Of interest: 

 

 

[Huba]

Reportedly Kadyrov said that there will be no general mobilization in Chechnya, as the republic already exceeded the quotas 3 times. If this is confirmed, it's almost an open mutiny. Not a good omen for RU for sure...

 

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

Unfortunately the first crack is beginning to show in EU unity on the sanctions front. And I expect things can get worse if say Italy starts backsliding too.

The Hungarian crack has been there, its irrelevant, Italy, the front runner for their election i believe has stated she will keep sanctions going. 

[Haiduk]

Air Forces claimed they shot down 4 Iranian Shahed-136 (in Russian service Geran' - 2) loitering munitions in Mykolaiv oblast. Also one was shot down over Nikopol'. Five days ago Russians have struck Ochakiv port with theese Iranian drones (one of four was shot down)

Our soldiers say Shahed-136 is enough nasty thing. It can fly on 1800 km and carries about 20 or even 30 kg of HE. It enough fast, when attacks - 185 km/h, but if it spotted in time, he can be easy shot with Zu-23-2, Shilka, Tunguska or Gepard, or even with small-arms. Main unmasking sign of this drone, which can get a time for reaction is very loud shrill noise, when it starts attack. It similar to sport bike sound

Russians usually use theese drones by pairs. One flies highter, other - lower. If one  shot down, other breakthrows air defense and hit the target. Reportedly already several artillery pieces were destroyed or damaged by Shahed attacks.

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

8 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban wants EU sanctions on Russia lifted by the end of the year, a pro-government daily newspaper said Thursday.

 

Orban can go "whistle". Up a rope. In the dark with a torch and a map... And other mixed metaphors to avoid expletion.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Kraft said:

From whom? The widows and USSR flag waving babushkas against OMON agents and Putin thugs?

"Protests" look like what the green party does every weekend in my city, when its raining.

I did not expect much but this is pathetic. More police cars burn in Europe when G7 leaders meet or when the french unions decide to improve their wages. Americans, Iranians, ...

7 months of war, 50k KIA, untold economic damage and a total destruction of any political reputation and goodwill. And a couple hundred chant on the street. Not to mention what damage and suffering they have caused, not like they care or else we would have seen "protests" before their own skin got in the game.

It will come from the army itself, Just like in 1917. Even if they don't give the mobiks ammo until they are 5 kilometers from the front line, rifles make pretty good clubs. And these guys are going to have HOURS, and DAYS on uncomfortable train rides to discuss how they been done wrong too, and exactly who/what is more dangerous? Trenches full of freezing water with hourly showers of 155 VT, or these fat, drunk excuses for officers, all three of them, in the front car.

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Cederic said:

No, it is not. Do not go there.

Errrr What?

[RandomCommenter]

22 minutes ago, Cederic said:

No, it is not. Do not go there.

It is, Cedric. As a simple matter of historical fact.

Fortunately the census results out today show that the days of Rhodesia on the Bann are numbered.

See for example - https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2022/09/22/northern-ireland-census-results-analysis/

However the thread has had enough problems staying on message today, so I will just leave it there. However I would be more than happy to get on to another thread with anyone here who wants to trash out this subject in more detail. But let's keep the focus on Ukraine.

 

By two cents on Donbas and Crimea. And here for I think the very first time I find myself in disagreement with The Captn.

 

We have as a matter of international law to respect current international frontiers. Which is why Kosovo is such an unfortunate precedent. This is why despite all the brutality we (the West) ultimately recognize for example Russia's sovereignty over Chechnya or Assad's sovereignty over the Kurdish part of Syria. If we are to say that Donetsk or Luhansk or Crimea or any other part of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson, where would it stop?) have a right to secede from Ukraine because of some local plebiscite then where do we stop? How do we keep international order?

 

We would first of all have the Basque region of Spain or Catalonia seceding. Problems in Corsica and Brittany, in Sardinia. A free republic of Texas. It would undermine the international order.

 

My opinion is that Ukraine needs to be supported by the West to regain all of its internationally recognized frontiers. That includes Crimea and the Donbas. And yes, we will have a NATO naval base in Sevastopol and the Russians will hate that. But Sevastopol is not a part of Russia no matter what they say. It was Ukrainian and they had a lease on the naval base. Now that they have made an enemy of Ukraine why should Ukraine tolerate a Russian naval base there?

And I know that some of you can (in good faith and reasonably) argue that this would be unacceptable for Russia. That they might resort to nuclear weapons. But that in my opinion is not rational. Are we going to fold every time they declare somewhere to be a part of Russia that objectively is not? And where do we draw the line if we are going to fold to nuclear brinksmanship? Crimea? Donetsk? Luhansk? Kherson? Mariupol? Kharkiv? Odesa? Transnistria? Kiev? Warsaw? Berlin?

[Lethaface]

17 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Any war is, by definition, a disaster. There is never an ideal outcome, there are only less terrible ones.

This.
While it (war) might interest all of us in this forum in certain ways, might have brought people some of their best moments (adrenaline / fraternity / etc), it also will have probably influenced all those involved, even if indirectly through family or circumstances, in traumatic ways which can influence generations down the line.

[RandomCommenter]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Of interest: 

 

 

Would be AWESOME if we can get it on the record right now from both China and the US that they agree to this principle and that whatever happens in Taiwan in the future, nuclear weapons are off the table.

[Kinophile]

54 minutes ago, Cederic said:

No, it is not. Do not go there.

Its not a hugely sensitive subject. Very well documented and accepted historical narrative.

And it does have relevance in UKR, as an example of what happens if you suppress a section of a non-heterogenous population long enough or hard enough, that already has some form of identity.

See my post just previous?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[acrashb]

In lighter news, Microsoft has announced a new version of Windows for the Russian market:

Seriously, this thread is well inside my OODA loop.  By the time I have absorbed and considered, someone has already either a) said what I had in mind or b) answered the question in my head.

 

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

Would be AWESOME if we can get it on the record right now from both China and the US that they agree to this principle and that whatever happens in Taiwan in the future, nuclear weapons are off the table.

China is already an outspoken no-first-use state. Will that apply in an invasion of Taiwan? We'll have to see. But clearly Xi is laying down a marker to the Russians. That's good...in that it is the right and responsible thing to do. That's also bad...because China clearly has open lines of communication with Putin and that has caused them to make their negative stance on use of nuclear weapons explicit. 

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Air Forces claimed they shot down 4 Iranian Shahed-136 (in Russian service Geran' - 2) loitering munitions in Mykolaiv oblast. Also one was shot down over Nikopol'. Five days ago Russians have struck Ochakiv port with theese Iranian drones (one of four was shot down)

Our soldiers say Shahed-136 is enough nasty thing. It can fly on 1800 km and carries about 20 or even 30 kg of HE. It enough fast, when attacks - 185 km/h, but if it spotted in time, he can be easy shot with Zu-23-2, Shilka, Tunguska or Gepard, or even with small-arms. Main unmasking sign of this drone, which can get a time for reaction is very loud shrill noise, when it starts attack. It similar to sport bike sound

Russians usually use theese drones by pairs. One flies highter, other - lower. If one  shot down, other breakthrows air defense and hit the target. Reportedly already several artillery pieces were destroyed or damaged by Shahed attacks.

 

 

 

You know what they're looking for...

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

If we are to say that Donetsk or Luhansk or Crimea or any other part of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson, where would it stop?) have a right to secede from Ukraine because of some local plebiscite then where do we stop? How do we keep international order?

Well I guess the same way we keep order right now.  We try and negotiate, entice and keep people within exiting states; however, if they employ a free and fair democratic process to derive a mandate from the people to leave that state, then a negotiation begins for that separation.  Plenty of history and precedent on this, particularly after the break up of the USSR; however, we also have them in the west.

Scotland is still debating the issue and if they vote to leave, does anyone think England will force them to stay against their will?  In my own country we came within millimeters of Quebec separation and it would have been an ugly divorce but no one was even discussing the use of force to hold the nation together.

I am not sure that the threshold is: Greenland did a soft-pull away back in 2008 and their population is about 56k: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlandic_independence.  Donbass region had about 6 million people in it.  

If we mean what we stand for then this isn't about what we want, it is about what the populations within those regions want - we cannot go back-sies on democracy because we don't like the result. 

International recognition of Ukrainian borders pre-2014 is already in place, we are not talking about that issue until Ukraine decides one way or the other.  I too agree Ukraine should be supported in re-gaining its former frontiers, I am just not sure it will.  I also think that the re-integration of those occupied regions is also very important part of the process should Ukraine regain them, and should include free and fair elections/referendums on the issue, if the people there so decide it.

I guess my question back to you the other way: where do we draw the line in trying to keep people in a nation structure they do not want to be within?  At what point does their freedom not count? The easy answer is "well they can leave" but how is that any different from a slippery form of forced deportation?  Which is exactly what we are seeing Russia do.

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[kevinkin]

Monkey Wrench:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

By posting, it does not mean I agree. But Ukrainian causality rates have to be part of the overall conversation.

"Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed."

Is Arestovych to be taken seriously? Or is he trying to gin up more western support with erroneous causality rates?

"Given Washington’s inability to end the war in Ukraine with the defeat of Russian arms, it seems certain that the Beltway will try instead to turn the ruins of the Ukrainian state into an open wound in Russia’s side that will never heal. From the beginning, the problem with this approach was that Russia always had the resources to dramatically escalate the fighting and end the fighting in Ukraine on very harsh terms. Escalation is now in progress." 

I think the writer is watching RAND wargames instead this real war and does not understand they don't take moral factors into account. They are based just on numbers using past erroneous assumptions. But there are wide swaths inside the beltway that are too ossified to see a total Ukraine victory with western help. They are cruel bastards for trying to use a nation this way. What do these pinheads see that most of us don't? 

 

 

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Sorry if I am being late - looks like UKR are making new significant push - RU reports they are being encircled at Lyman area

BTW Nove and Makiivka settlements denotes RU retread part toward Svatove for combat-ineffective units. 

Denis Pushilin says the situation at North of DPR is very difficult (means RU situation is worsening but not that bad yet). He expects UKR offensive soon. But other RU Nats believe it has already started (the push above).

 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Monkey Wrench:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

By posting, it does not mean I agree. But Ukrainian causality rates have to be part of the overall conversation.

"Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed."

Is Arestovych to be taken seriously? Or is he trying to gin up more western support with erroneous causality rates?

"Given Washington’s inability to end the war in Ukraine with the defeat of Russian arms, it seems certain that the Beltway will try instead to turn the ruins of the Ukrainian state into an open wound in Russia’s side that will never heal. From the beginning, the problem with this approach was that Russia always had the resources to dramatically escalate the fighting and end the fighting in Ukraine on very harsh terms. Escalation is now in progress." 

I think the writer is watching RAND wargames instead this real war and does not understand they don't take moral factors into account. They are based just on numbers using past erroneous assumptions. But there are wide swaths inside the beltway that are too ossified to see a total Ukraine victory with western help. They are cruel bastards for trying to use a nation this way. What do these pinheads see that most of us don't? 

 

 

Douglas MacGregor is a hack, an appeaser and an all around toerag. Print that article off and use it as toilet paper. It's about what it's worth.

And with that, off to happy hour. Cheers. 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by billbindc

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Douglas MacGregor is a hack, an appeaser and an all around toerag. Print that article off and use it as toilet paper. It's about what it's worth.

This guy has been predicting the immanent collapse of the UA since Feb, he is the anti-Steve.  The UA was completely done at Kyiv, they were completely done in the Donbas, and I am sure in his bizarro world the offensive around Kharkiv was a Russian reorg or “trap”.

This former serving officer with his background he also knows better, which makes this worse.  I would not trust his analysis, assessments or data in the least.

As to UA casualties, I am sure there has been a spike in the last few weeks, attacking will do that.  However, they suffered similar casualties back over the summer in the Donbas and were still able to pull of a double operational offensive in Sep…they are clearly able to absorb these levels and still force generate combat power.

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt