How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/betting-it-all-on-black-putins-partial-mobilization-and-escalation-strategy-in-ukraine

Good point from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee.

Do not believe the 300k number for mobilization for a second. This is not even written on anything (not that would make it any better), this is just what the guy who lies always said in a speech.

What interest Russia would have in telling even a ballpark accurate numbers here? The opposite, huge risk.

Think about it; What would Russia say if it was conducting absolute maximum mobilization?

I think way too many people take the number as some sort of guide. Mistake.

[Calamine Waffles]

Committing economic suicide
 

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Access to Sevastopol should ultimately be decided by the people who live there. If they decide that they are Ukrainian and that Russia should be expelled to the end of time, so be it.  If they decide the other way, also so be it; however, that choice must be made free from guns from either side in the end, and here an international body like the UN (shudder) may have its day.

The problem is who lives there in 2014 and now are quite different. Lots of internal movements of people to unoccupied Ukraine. Lots of Russians who moved in. The right of return is a accepted principle of international law. Ukraine's internally displaced from the Donbas and Crimea must be allowed to return and the return of property as well to Ukraine.

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now here is a very important question: Will Ukraine support free and fair (UN monitored) elections in these regions in order to allow citizens to decide their own nationality?  Will Ukraine honor the choices made in these regions, even if the vote in significant areas leads to secession?

More to the point, will Ukraine concede land to a democratic process?  I think there is a mountain of evidence of Russian interference; however, there is clearly also a deeper issue here as well.  One that should be addressed through democratic process.

There is a important part of recognition of Russian crimes against humanity in Ukraine (including genocide), that informs the context of whether actions like setting up elections to decide a region being Russian vs Ukrainian is just. I say just as we have ample evidence of policies of forced relocation and deportation of Ukrainian citizens from Ukraine with seizure of passports and with no monitoring by the UN or ICRC, cleansing of pro-Ukrainian populations in occupied regions, Russification, etc.

https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15023.doc.htm

Russia's actions in Ukraine mean it has lost the privilege of acting like it can earnestly ask to give rights to the people of Ukraine to choose to join Russia.

Edited September 22, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Sorry if I am being late - looks like UKR are making new significant push - RU reports they are being encircled at Lyman area

BTW Nove and Makiivka settlements denotes RU retread part toward Svatove for combat-ineffective units. 

WarGonzo is having a bit of a meltdown regarding this, I hope increased blood pressure gets him at some point
Combined with information about UA advancing from Dworichne/ Kupyansk, it indeed looks like they are making another move. It really isn't clear for me what is the state of the opposing forces here, but I understand that UA has more mech/ armor available, and should do good in open field compared to the LPR/ volunteer RU units that just hold the towns. Given how the previous part of the offensive looked like, I really hope we can see some proper (if rather small scale) encirclements here.

[The_MonkeyKing]

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization.

They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory.

Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

[LongLeftFlank]

(HeliosRunner)

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[keas66]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization.

They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory.

Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

 I think  the inability of Russia to actually make use of these newly mobilized "troops" in a timely manner - or even the ability to equip /train them has already been discussed endlessly already  hasn't it  ? - and the consensus was .... It won't change anything on the battlefield  ?

Or do we now think  there would be some actually military merit to flooding the front lines with untrained and unequipped bodies on the Russian side ?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

 I think  the inability of Russia to actually make use of these newly mobilized "troops" in a timely manner - or even the ability to equip /train them has already been discussed endlessly already  hasn't it  ? - and the consensus was .... It won't change anything on the battlefield  ?

Or do we now think  there would be some actually military merit to flooding the front lines with untrained and unequipped bodies on the Russian side ?

Depending on how it's done, some of these bodies might be a bit experienced/ trained - meaning refusniks and people just released from the last round of draft.  IMO they can fill a lot of frontline units with men in a matter of weeks ( cohesion/ morale be damned...). If this will have positive or negative net impact on the situation, I don't feel competent to guess. For sure it won't be unnoticed.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 I think  the inability of Russia to actually make use of these newly mobilized "troops" in a timely manner - or even the ability to equip /train them has already been discussed endlessly already  hasn't it  ? - and the consensus was .... It won't change anything on the battlefield  ?

Or do we now think  there would be some actually military merit to flooding the front lines with untrained and unequipped bodies on the Russian side ?

Well, I'm looking forward to it.

[FancyCat]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Will Ukraine support free and fair (UN monitored) elections in these regions in order to allow citizens to decide their own nationality? 

This is a war of aggression. This is a war where Russia sought to annex Ukrainian territory in violation of international law (one could argue all of Ukraine). This is a war where Russia in order to facilitate the seizure of Ukrainian territory has initiated genocidal actions against the Ukrainian people. There is nothing free or fair about a referendum as the bodies of those who would have quite possibly voted for Ukraine are being uncovered, with millions displaced from ruined war-torn regions.

[Eddy]

6 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 I think  the inability of Russia to actually make use of these newly mobilized "troops" in a timely manner - or even the ability to equip /train them has already been discussed endlessly already  hasn't it  ? - and the consensus was .... It won't change anything on the battlefield  ?

Or do we now think  there would be some actually military merit to flooding the front lines with untrained and unequipped bodies on the Russian side ?

Have a listen to the podcast that the @The_MonkeyKing linked to above if you've got the time (about 45 mins long). It's Michael Kofman and Rob Lee talking about that very subject. Here's the link again Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization | Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado (simplecast.com)

TLDR: They are of the opinion it won't change the dynamics.

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

It really isn't clear for me what is the state of the opposing forces here, but I understand that UA has more mech/ armor available, and should do good in open field compared to the LPR/ volunteer RU units that just hold the towns. 

There are RU regulars as well now. AFAIR around 12-Sep Ru regular reinforcements have arrived there. But I believe it is still a mess of different units in various states of combat-effectiveness.  

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Have a listen to the podcast that the @The_MonkeyKing linked to above if you've got the time (about 45 mins long). It's Michael Kofman and Rob Lee talking about that very subject. Here's the link again Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization | Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado (simplecast.com)

TLDR: They are of the opinion it won't change the dynamics.

 

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Russia's actions in Ukraine mean it has lost the privilege of acting like it can earnestly ask to give rights to the people of Ukraine to choose to join Russia

No debate there, and I understand all about the displacement and occupation, but you are really sidestepping the question.  

This is a complicated one, well outside the stark digital calculus you have expressed in prosecuting this war, however it is an extremely important one.

Ukraine has a whole set of issues within these regions beyond simple "take back-ness". 

17 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

There is a important part of recognition of Russian crimes against humanity in Ukraine (including genocide), that informs the context of whether actions like setting up elections to decide a region being Russian vs Ukrainian is just.

Ok, so help me out here.  What would the roadmap back to full citizenship and democratic rights of the people in this region look like then?  Even people who do not want to be Ukrainian?  We get Russia's terrible crimes and they will be held accountable for that but I am not sure how that figures into re-establishment of democracy in these regions. 

Are you suggesting that Russia killed off all the resisting Ukrainian-orientated people and so democracy will not work in these regions?  There is probably truth to this, but are you then suggesting denying rights of citizenship to people who stayed, because they stayed?

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I say just as we have ample evidence of policies of forced relocation and deportation of Ukrainian citizens from Ukraine with seizure of passports and with no monitoring by the UN or ICRC, cleansing of pro-Ukrainian populations in occupied regions, Russification, etc.

https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15023.doc.htm

Yes, we know this, terrible and a violation of international law.  Russia's feet will be held to the fire via sanctions and isolation until these are remedied.

However, that could take years. So how long do Crimea and Donbass republics have to wait for enfranchisement?  Your logic sounds dangerously like "until we get enough 'real-Ukrainians' back in", but I am sure you are not meaning that.

No debate on the Russian BS and fake elections and referendums.  However, it does not address the very real concern how Ukraine manages the re-taken regions in your "non-negotiable" scenario.  How will democracy for the people living there be re-established?  How will their militaries be demobilized and reintegrated?  Will they be given a chance to have free-from-interference referendums to chose what nation they live in?

Or are we setting ourselves up for more rule of the gun, here?

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting thread. I continue to believe that UKR airpower could furnish the 'tipping point' that lets UA mech break the RU defences in the south. Mainly by taking Russia's artillery substantially down, in conjunction with drones and counterbattery work.

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 I think  the inability of Russia to actually make use of these newly mobilized "troops" in a timely manner - or even the ability to equip /train them has already been discussed endlessly already  hasn't it  ? - and the consensus was .... It won't change anything on the battlefield  ?

Or do we now think  there would be some actually military merit to flooding the front lines with untrained and unequipped bodies on the Russian side ?

Indeed. I was thinking more about the logic Kremlin is using. I am sure they believe they can equip them and if nothing else, crush Ukraine with pure mass if nothing else.

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

This is a war of aggression. This is a war where Russia sought to annex Ukrainian territory in violation of international law (one could argue all of Ukraine). This is a war where Russia in order to facilitate the seizure of Ukrainian territory has initiated genocidal actions against the Ukrainian people. There is nothing free or fair about a referendum as the bodies of those who would have quite possibly voted for Ukraine are being uncovered, with millions displaced from ruined war-torn regions.

Whoa, so you are saying that because of Russian war crimes, which absolutely no one is disagreeing with, democratic rights will be denied to the citizens of these regions?  Indefinitely, it kind of sounds like you are promoting here, or at least a generation or two?

Donbass and Crimea cannot have democracy because Russia killed off all the true-Ukrainians?

So instead of Ukrainians being oppressed by Russians, we are trading people who see themselves as Russian being oppressed by Ukrainians?  

And we are back to Afghanistan...

I honestly hope and strongly believe that the grown ups in Kyiv do not agree with what I think you are suggesting in the least, at least based on how well they have managed this war and its narratives so far.

I do hope you can see my point that this a lot more complicated than win/loss, particularly when you tie those to lines on a map.  I honestly hope and pray that justice is served to the Russians responsible for these crimes and this war are brought to account.  I also strongly hope that as we look to investing hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine we will get a fully modern democratic partner that quickly and fairly ensures all its citizens are fully enfranchised and protected by its laws.  I fervently hope that the post-conflict phase sees reconciliation and, if need be, realignments that reflect the will of the people - all done with the support of the international community.

Here is the crazy thing about war, once the shooting stops, the hard part really begins.

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

36 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization.

They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory.

Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

I actually think the 300,000 is more of a smokescreen to confuse domestic opposition. It's already pretty bad, it's clear Putin didn't want to do it and the most expansive parts of the order have been tucked into classified codicils. Also, Putin's game at this point is to prolong the war to exhaust Ukraine and the West. To achieve that as quickly as possible, he would want Sholtz and Zelensky contemplating the Siberian hordes, not a mealy mouthed it might or might not be 300,000.

[keas66]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Whoa, so you are saying that because of Russian war crimes, which absolutely no one is disagreeing with, democratic rights will be denied to the citizens of these regions?  Indefinitely, it kind of sounds like you are promoting here, or at least a generation or two?

Donbass and Crimea cannot have democracy because Russia killed off all the true-Ukrainians?

So instead of Ukrainians being oppressed by Russians, we are trading people who see themselves as Russian being oppressed by Ukrainians?  

And we are back to Afghanistan...

I honestly hope and strongly believe that the grown ups in Kyiv do not agree with what I think you are suggesting in the least, at least based on how well they have managed this war and its narratives so far.

I do hope you can see my point that this a lot more complicated than win/loss, particularly when you tie those to lines on a map.  I honestly hope and pray that justice is served to the Russians responsible for these crimes and this war are brought to account.  I also strongly hope that as we look to investing hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine we will get a fully modern democratic partner that quickly and fairly ensures all its citizens are fully enfranchised and protected by its laws.  I fervently hope that the post-conflict phase sees reconciliation and, if need be, realignments that reflect the will of the people - all done with the support of the international community.

Here is the crazy thing about war, once the shooting stops, the hard part really begins.

 

You seem to be overlaying   past experiences   in the Balkans  and Afghanistan  atop this latest Conflict and saying the Ukrainians are not mature enough to decide themselves  how to settle things in their own territory . Maybe  give them some credit and assume they are not going to behave like the Russians ? .

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, keas66 said:

You seem to be overlaying   past experiences   in the Balkans  and Afghanistan  atop this latest Conflict and saying the Ukrainians are not mature enough to decide themselves  how to settle things in their own territory . Maybe  give them some credit and assume they are not going to behave like the Russians ? .

He isn't suggesting otherwise,  he's challenging folks here to start understanding the gray area we are entering.  In all likelihood the Ukraine gov't is debating these very same issues.

[The_Capt]

Just now, keas66 said:

You seem to be overlaying   past experiences   in the Balkans  and Afghanistan  atop this latest Conflict and saying the Ukrainians are not mature enough to decide themselves  how to settle things in their own territory . Maybe  give them some credit and assume they are not going to behave like the Russians ? .

Not suggesting anything of the sort.  I am asking "FancyCat" how he thinks post-conflict will go down post-conflict.

Also, I am not going to subscribe to "how dare you that is internal business" when we stand as significant stakeholders in this conflict and post-conflict.  

Of course, I do not think Ukraine will behave as the Russians, they have already demonstrated this in the prosecution of this war.  However, in all those past experiences the narrative of "just gives us the money and stay out of our business" does not fly, and will not fly for this war.  The west is going to make a long-term commitment to Ukraine (we had better) and Ukraine will need to make a reciprocal commitment back, that very much includes what we are talking about.

Once again, you do not have to like it or even listen to me, but I will bet a c-note that these sorts conversations are happening in the halls of power in the west right now.

[keas66]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Not suggesting anything of the sort.  I am asking "FancyCat" how he thinks post-conflict will go down post-conflict.

Also, I am not going to subscribe to "how dare you that is internal business" when we stand as significant stakeholders in this conflict and post-conflict.  

Of course, I do not think Ukraine will behave as the Russians, they have already demonstrated this in the prosecution of this war.  However, in all those past experiences the narrative of "just gives us the money and stay out of our business" does not fly, and will not fly for this war.  The west is going to make a long-term commitment to Ukraine (we had better) and Ukraine will need to make a reciprocal commitment back, that very much includes what we are talking about.

Once again, you do not have to like it or even listen to me, but I will bet a c-note that these sorts conversations are happening in the halls of power in the west right now.

Well sure and I bet it is also happening  in the  halls of Power in Ukraine - since they want to both become a Member of the EU and  NATO ! .  I personally feel we should be putting a lot more faith in the Ukrainians   to do the right thing .

[sburke]

NY Times news highlights this morning.  Some interesting geopolitical tidbits

The Morning: Bad to worse for Russia (nytimes.com)

Quote

Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine have emboldened a small but growing number of dissidents to speak out. More than 40 local elected officials have signed a petition demanding that Putin resign. A Russian pop star has criticized the war to her 3.4 million Instagram followers. Yesterday, Russian police detained more than 1,200 protesters; in Moscow, crowds shouted, “Send Putin to the trenches!”
Some Putin supporters have also grown frustrated and have called for a more aggressive war effort. My colleague Anton Troianovski, The Times’s Moscow bureau chief, says that some of these hawks were particularly alarmed by the unsolved assassination in a Moscow suburb last month of Daria Dugina, a pro-Putin television commentator, viewing her killing as a sign of Putin’s weakness. These hawks were even more alarmed by the Russian military’s stunning retreat in northeastern Ukraine this month, Anton said.
During a face-to-face meeting last week with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, Putin acknowledged that China had “questions and concerns” about the war. The comment suggested that Russia’s most important global ally had grown less comfortable with the war.
India, which has longstanding military ties with Russia, has also grown more critical. “Today’s era is not of war,” India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, told Putin during another recent meeting. India’s discomfort, in turn, gives China more reason to be concerned about the war: If India moves diplomatically closer to the U.S. and Western Europe, it would create a more powerful bloc to counter China’s rise.

 

[Grigb]

Regarding mobilization - Mashkovets

Quote

On the issue of mobilization in Russia...

Mobilization reserve of the Russian Federation - up to 2,098,000 "trained reserve" (conditionally)
The size of [Armed Forces] of the Russian Federation in peacetime - 912,000 people [I could mistranslate it - I believe he missed Armed Forces phrase, but it could be something else]

Mobilization tension - up to 65-70,000 people during one training cycle (for example, the United States during the Gulf War called up 106,000 reservists in general... mobilization systems in the USA and in the Russian Federation in terms of efficiency and quality... not even comparable, 300 thousand ....yeah, I'm already afraid ...).

The last conscription for military service in the ranks of the Russian Federation was 134 000 (the stated need), 91,200 were conscripted to the ranks of the [Armed forces of] Russian Federation (the shortage was at least a third - about 43,000 people).

[Regarding] the presence of military units with incomplete TOE (cropped units) in the structure of each regional military command/military district (in the warehouses of which military equipment, military equipment and weapons are stored for a long time):

- up to 67% of OVT [vehicles and weapons] HAS ALREADY been reactivated...

- cropped units - [were] almost TOTALLY eliminated... [during Serdukov reforms]

- the already deployed RF formations have a current need for staffing at an average of 44% of the full-time strength.

And now... Let's say all together MO-BI-LI-ZA-TION!

 

[sburke]

Question for @Haidukand @Grigb

I am trying to understand what motivated Russia to do the prisoner swap.  It seems so counter to their narrative and guaranteed to upset a powerful constituency.  One item of info we don't have is beyond the one MP dude, who are the other 54 Russians swapped in this deal?