How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

23 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Thank God, there were no medical diagnoses

I send you a PM because that is a better place. There was no medical diagnose in my statement though.

[Huba]

Just now, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The man is from a country fighting a war against genocidal enemy. His is a different perspective. I think that this would be the case for many other forum members, if we were in his place.  War is by definition collective violence and by definition makes people guilty by association and enemies for no other reason, than their nationality. This extends to emotions about the enemy, which of course tends to be hate. 

The imperative not to say anything racist or "hate-speachy" is something for people not concerned with life or death or, yes, feelings of revenge for the destruction of their country and barbaric murder of their compatriots.   Let us respect that this is a different situation and move along. Nobody is required to support what Kraze is saying but it should be acknowledged this is something else than trolling about WW2 war crimes or Middle East ethnic issues, which the forum rules are intended to prevent.

Agree completely. Just replace "russians" with " 1942 Germans" and think if any of your issues with kraze's rhetoric are still problematic. Yes, there's a lot collectively wrong with russians, ultimately it is their culture ( understood anthropologically) that time and again is enabling aggression and genocide, same as was the case with imperial/ Nazi Germany and imperial Japan (and many other). There's nothing racist in pointing that out.
Even outside the Ukraine itself, West's strategy now is to inflict pain and costs on Russia as a whole, which means first and foremost on your average "innocent" russian. Yeah, it's ugly, and yeah, that's how war between nation states works and there's no way around that. If anything, Ukrainians are showing a remarkable restraint so far, refraining from indiscriminately shelling Belgorod for example. 
To be honest, I personally don't feel fine with both of these notions on emotional level, but this is a problem of our sensibilities, which are just not compatible with situation of open war. I hate the fact that I have to deal with this emotional burden, but I 100% blame it on the russians.

[Grigb]

As RU says sh*t started to go down the pipes

Quote

In St. Petersburg, military enlistment offices are distributing subpoenas in bundles, writes Pavel Chikov
According to the head of the human rights group "Agora", the city began to attract HOA employees to serve summonses.

 

[Aragorn2002]

Free speech and the right to offend, according to Jordan Peterson.

"So what you're saying is..."

Edited September 21, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Lethaface]

17 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The man is from a country fighting a war against genocidal enemy. His is a different perspective. I think that this would be the case for many other forum members, if we were in his place.  War is by definition collective violence and by definition makes people guilty by association and enemies for no other reason, than their nationality. This extends to emotions about the enemy, which of course tends to be hate. 

The imperative not to say anything racist or "hate-speachy" is something for people not concerned with life or death or, yes, feelings of revenge for the destruction of their country and barbaric murder of their compatriots.   Let us respect that this is a different situation and move along. Nobody is required to support what Kraze is saying but it should be acknowledged this is something else than trolling about WW2 war crimes or Middle East ethnic issues, which the forum rules are intended to prevent.

 

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Agree completely. Just replace "russians" with " 1942 Germans" and think if any of your issues with kraze's rhetoric are still problematic. Yes, there's a lot collectively wrong with russians, ultimately it is their culture ( understood anthropologically) that time and again is enabling aggression and genocide, same as was the case with imperial/ Nazi Germany and imperial Japan (and many other). There's nothing racist in pointing that out.
Even outside the Ukraine itself, West's strategy now is to inflict pain and costs on Russia as a whole, which means first and foremost on your average "innocent" russian. Yeah, it's ugly, and yeah, that's how war between nation states works and there's no way around that. If anything, Ukrainians are showing a remarkable restraint so far, refraining from indiscriminately shelling Belgorod for example. 
To be honest, I personally don't feel fine with both of these notions on emotional level, but this is a problem of our sensibilities, which are just not compatible with situation of open war. I hate the fact that I have to deal with this emotional burden, but I 100% blame it on the russians.

Personally I feel sort of the same as both of you.
The line is imo when you generalize whole people as rapists by blood / barbarics. And especially if you then include all Arabs in it and say that Israel is tackling the root problem as a direct reply to someone mentioning killing children / reporters.

And I'll gladly take vacation to call out such statements.

Anyway I've said what I needed I'll leave it at that. 

[Holien]

Gents Steve has given clear guidelines of what and how to discuss in this thread.

Can we FFS stay within those guidelines? Please...

[Huba]

This seems very relevant to the discussion of "average russian" innocence, and how it is perceived in different countries. I absolutely second Latvian approach here. Yeah, it won't buy them much sympathy from RU public opinion, pro and anti-war alike, but in the long term forcing RU civilians to face the music is the only way forward.

 

[poesel]

Article about Ukrainians fleeing to Romania to escape the army.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-rumaenien-grenze-101.html

No real surprise. Not everyone is a hero. But there is one bit that I would like cleared up: one Ukrainian describes that his cousin was literally snatched off the street and sent to the front after just 10 days of training. True? Common?

[Grigb]

I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. 

Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense.

[TheVulture]

Selection of snippets from central asia about the US trying to outmaneouver Russia politically:

Quote

The U.S. in Central Asia. The United States is in talks with the governments of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to allow both countries to keep dozens of U.S. military aircraft flown to the two states by Afghan air force pilots as the government in Kabul was collapsing last year, according to a report by Politico. The aircraft are being held in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and would be exchanged for the countries' cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan. Washington hasn’t officially commented on the report, but if true, it would likely irritate the Kremlin, which wants to play the role of security guarantor in Central Asia.

Investing in Kazakhstan. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took part in an investment forum attended by the leaders of major American companies. He touted the expansion of the strategic economic partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. This is part of the expanding U.S. presence in Central Asia, a traditional buffer zone for Moscow.

Cracking down. Kazakhstan’s Industry and Infrastructure Development Ministry said on Tuesday that it would require Russian and Belarusian truckers to present necessary paperwork to comply with Western sanctions. The sanctions have banned truckers from both countries from entering the bloc. The requirement was put in place earlier this year but not enforced. According to Russian media, Russian transporters had been warned that Kazakhstan was detaining Russian trucks with goods from Europe.

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. 

Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense.

Well if he says so, it must be true.

[CHEqTRO]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. 

Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense.

Or he is just lying/half-truthing, just as how supposedly no conscript could had been used in the initial phases of the war back in February, and there you had them .

Edited September 21, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. 

Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense.

But AFAIK the referendums are about whole oblasts joining RU, not only the occupied territories per se right? So storming Zaporozhiya with human wave attacks is on the table too. 

In general, I think that these statements are vague on purpose, so they don't tie their hands too much with the legalities.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only].

For him Russia includes the Ukraine. Psychopaths and Narcists for them to deceive, lie and manipulate is like water what a fish needs to swim in. Look at the ridiculous uniforms they all wear. Something out of a comic book. Narcists written all over it. If people wonder about the difference psychopaths train people to be like them. The graduates are called Narcists.

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by chuckdyke

[JonS]

20 hours ago, kraze said:

Meh. People who live in western countries do not understand how totalitarian/slave cultures tick and so they ...

Do you live in a Western country?

 

[Zeleban]

10 minutes ago, poesel said:

Article about Ukrainians fleeing to Romania to escape the army.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-rumaenien-grenze-101.html

No real surprise. Not everyone is a hero. But there is one bit that I would like cleared up: one Ukrainian describes that his cousin was literally snatched off the street and sent to the front after just 10 days of training. True? Common?

I can say that since the beginning of the war, I have several times applied to the Venkomat with a desire to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To which I was told that people with military experience and perfect health were required (I have a chronic disease). In pro-Russian publics, the hysteria was successfully dispersed about the fact that men of military age are grabbed on the streets and taken into the army, but this is nonsense. I travel from Irpin to Kyiv almost every day and often go through checks at the checkpoint, and I have never seen anyone handed summons to the military registration and enlistment office.

[JonS]

55 minutes ago, kraze said:

Never once in this thread I ever posted any call to kill anyone like that ever.

Quote

Yes russians are the root of the problem. Not just putin, not just their army, all of russians. They all caused this, collectively. All must be held responsible ... let them reap what they sow.

 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

 

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/thesaurus/hold-someone-responsible

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hold someone responsible

[Zeleban]

2 минуты назад, Jons сказал:

 

Where is the call to kill?

What do you have against Russian responsibility for their actions? After World War II, ALL Germans were responsible for starting the war.

[chuckdyke]

Definition of partial mobilization, he can't have as many as he would like. 

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

 

But having them suffer consequences =/= killing them. Inflicting economic hardships is how we (not UA, the West) are doing it now, and we'll be only increasing that pressure. This still breaks people's lives, makes them loose their livelihoods and commit suicides. It is still quite nasty and our countries are supporting it (and rightfully so!). No way to sugarcoat it I'm afraid.
Oh, and if anybody (especially an Ukrainian!) feels any schadenfreude because of that happening, I really don't know why we should hold it against him. Not very Christian, but come on...

Edited September 21, 2022 by Huba

[JonS]

Yeah, right-oh then.

Tell me, what are elements of the Russian forces 'sowing' in Ukraine again? Aside from the thieving of washing machines it's rape, torture, and murder - that's what we agreed they're up to, right?

Because that is what kraze is explicitly and repeatedly calling for for every single man, woman, child, and baby currently living between St Petersberg and Vladivostock.

Edited September 21, 2022 by JonS

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well if he says so, it must be true.

If he says so it means they did not change the law forbidding deployment of conscripts outside of RU. That means they are afraid of deploying conscripts outside of RU and currently do not plan to do it.

 

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Or he is just lying/half-truthing, just as how supposedly no conscript could had been used in the initial phases of the war back in February, and there you had them .

Yes, it could be as well, but honestly in the initial phase it was not pressure from the top but local initiative by not very smart military commanders.

Conscripts deployment is very sensitive issue that can easily undermine Putin power. So, Kremlin prefers to avoid it as much as possible.

1 hour ago, Huba said:

But AFAIK the referendums are about whole oblasts joining RU, not only the occupied territories per se right? So storming Zaporozhiya with human wave attacks is on the table too. 

That's debatable because to claim that you need control of oblast Capital. But i must admit with these RU procedural things I am not that good because it is pure bureaucracy BS that I found dumb and ridiculous. 

 

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

For him Russia includes the Ukraine. Psychopaths and Narcists for them to deceive, lie and manipulate is like water what a fish needs to swim in

I would like to remind you about Galeev threat - It is all about procedurality .

 

And according to procedures rest of UKR is not RU territory. And so far, they have not changed procedures hinting at  switch of their mindset to strategic defense. 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Grigb

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, right-oh then.

Tell me, what are elements of the Russian forces 'sowing' in Ukraine again? Thieving of washing machines, rape, torture, and murder - that's what we agreed they're up to, right?

Because that is what kraze is explicitly and repeatedly calling for for every single man, woman, child, and baby currently living between St Petersberg and Vladivostock.

Where do I explicitly call for that? Since I do it repeatedly - you will have no problem finding at least one comment.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, right-oh then.

Tell me, what are elements of the Russian forces 'sowing' in Ukraine again? Thieving of washing machines, rape, torture, and murder - that's what we agreed they're up to, right?

Because that is what kraze is explicitly and repeatedly calling for for every single man, woman, child, and baby currently living between St Petersberg and Vladivostock.

I don't recall him ever saying any of that explicitly - if he did and you could provide an example, I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong.
Having them reap what they sow for me means making them feel the consequences of being at war. This is already being done, will increase in severeness and I have no problem with that.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Huba